WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Valier]

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Valier

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

Well this one I actually don't like, not at all, precious. Like, I suspect skip myself, but for some reason, I get the vibes from Val as if she was just picking him while at the same point staying away from the bandwaggons which are rolling.

*sigh* This is all too difficult... I might be for voting Valier, if that has any chance to get through. I am unsure about the Nessa-wagon myself, just because I am not sure if I understand correctly all the reasons of those who have put it in motion.

EDIT: x-ed with Bob.

[Thinlómien]

So

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa 2
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa 3
Valier -> Skip
Greenie -> Zil

Out of the people already voted, I would prefer Zil, followed by Skip and then Ed. Nessa is making me have second thoughts again because the fact that people are so eager to bandwagon against her without any very solid evidence makes me think she might be innocent after all.


edit: xed with Rikae who is

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Which is how I saw it.

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

As I said Lommy's death doesn't come as a surprise - but according to my notes, nobody thought Valier was innocent. I'm wondering if they went for her as a potential seer - or if their real target was Lommy as a potential seer and they threw in Valier just to confuse us. I don't like the situation too much: the kills seem to implicate certain people who have been suspected anyway, but we can't tell if they are actually wolves or if the wolves just want us to believe so, and we never lynch any of them.

Originally Posted by Green

a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered.

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.
And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

Originally Posted by Green

And, like Cailín, I don't quite approve of him saying that us as wolves would account for awkward kills!

I misread this as "I don't quite approve of him saying that us wolves would account for awkward kills!" You should've seen my face.

By the way, if we don't get any wolves (or ranger saves), it will be 5-6 the day after tomorrow.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.

That's another look at the situation.

Hmm. Basically the point is that we need to lynch a Wolf. I think that will at least make us determine a bit what kind of logic the WWs were using during the kills etc. That way, it would be good to lynch e.g. Inzil or Nessa, but again, maybe that's exactly what the WWs want us to do. And that's not to say, if for example Zil is a Cobbler...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

Should I have?

Originally Posted by Rikae

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

Exactly.

I'm worried about nobody paying attention to Mac & Shasta (other than "they look innocent"), not because I suspect them but because I know how sneaky they can be. I'd like to take a look at them at some point, however I won't have time for it today. I'm also torn about Boro who hasn't been posting enough substance for me to form a solid opinion on him - he worries me but not enough to justify a vote.

Here's a list of people I might vote today. I'd prefer one from the first category but a lynch from the 2nd or 3rd might prove more helpful. I think there's more of a case against Inzil than Nessa so it's probably either him or a quiet player.

Suspicious-ish but not enough substance: ed, wilwa, BG, Mänwe (who'll be modfired if he doesn't vote today)
The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa
Would be more of a gut thing: Pitch, Rikae, skip

I'm going now, will be back to vote some time before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him.

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.

[Macalaure]

Boro worries me a lot. If you have limited time to play, you try to come up with something helpful when you're around, trying to figure out what's going on. The points he does make are not up to his standards. Just compare Boro posts to the posts of time-challenged Skip toDay. Boro hasn't done anything of consequence since my analysis yesterDay, and my mind remains unchanged.

I don't have time toDay, since I have to go now, but Cailín worries me a bit. Not sure why. I'll need to have a look at her toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

The only persons in perpetual trouble are Nessa and Inzil. Nessa has not been incriminated by the wolves except by the Ozban kill. Inzil only got into the situation in the first place by the wolves' actions and his strange behaviour around it. Any other wolf has no special reason to be worried at this point.

Greenie -> Inzil
BG -> Nessa
Wilwa -> Inzil(2)
Skip -> Nessa(2)

Looking at this and people's stated suspicions, I guess your mind is made up. I think neither Nessa nor Inzil are good options, so I might as well stick with my actual top suspect.

++Boromir88

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Why would people go after someone you'd voted for just because you were found to be innocent? Unless you're the Seer who dreamed of Rikae, but your next words belie that:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

You're right in that I am indeed innocent. However, your apparent reluctance to hop on the bandwagon against me, like your not changing your vote yesterDay to save yourself, now has me wondering if you aren't the Cobbler, convinced that I'm a wolf.

[Rikae]

I'm inclined to think, at this point, that the seer must know something about either Nessa or Inzil, and, knowing that, has the key to the other's identity as well. Unless, of course, xe decided to avoid dreaming a likely lynch target, which is also possible...
Still, I have a feeling like those two, although unknown now, are sort of taken care of, in that everyone has an opinion on them and therefore there are tons of trails.

I have had a really bad feeling about Legate for some time now and almost am ready to vote him for that reason. It isn't logical. He just seems to manage to stay on the edges of trouble, nudging it onwards somehow... but that is not solid, might be innocent, and psychic Shasta doesn't suspect him. He gets a pass for now, but I'm going to analyze him next chance I get.

Not really as suspicious of Skip as those others listed above. He seems cheerful, almost giddy, which could be a bad sign when the wolves are doing well so far, but I don't really feel like I have much to go on where he's concerned.

Those top suspects aside, I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

Now, I have a date for Saturday night (not being a loser at all! ) and so won't be back until after deadline. Vote wisely, folks.

[Pitchwife]

An hour to DL. Where is everybody?

Shasta's right, that messy Zil/Nessa business needs to be cleared up toDay. I guess I should stick to my guns and vote Nessa after all, but Zil actually looks worse toDay, if not by much.
The one thing that can't be part of a frame attempt by the wolves is Zil's 180 vote yesterDay. As far as that is concerned, Zil's and Nessa's respective suspiciousness equally depends on the other in my mind, so that's not much help deciding...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

An hour to DL.

Half an hour, to be more exact...

[Macalaure]

Would like to skip for now
Nessa
Inzil
Skip

I don't think so
Aganzir (only one who's really looking innocent to me at the moment)
Greenie (innocent feeling, too)

No idea
e_d
Mänwe

Not unthinkable
Shasta
Wilwa
Rikae
BG
Cailín

Possible
Eomer (always have a hard time figuring him out. There's no question about him being a shrewd and logical wolf, though)
Legate (I suddenly have a bad feeling and I'm not sure why)

Very possible
Pitch
Boro
(as I said before)

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

The main point in this game this far is, with "leader" and "followers", you need to have such a "leader" that he/she approves of the kills which have been made. That really makes it a lot more difficult to figure it out with some quick and simple scheme. There are several people I cannot imagine doing it - unless it is just the reason why they are doing it. That all comes down to what I have said a few posts before, once we could lynch one Wolf, it would shed some light on the way they might have been planning this to be.

[A Little Green]

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

ALMOST COMFORTABLE WITH
Macalaure - Nothing alarming this far, seems genuine.
Shasta - Likewise, though past experience has taught me never to trust him.
Rikae - Seems okay this far.
Boro - Could go either way. At the moment I'm leaning innocent on him, too. (Though I began having second thoughts as soon as I had written that.. Agh, I might use a closer look at him, too.)

NO IDEA
Eomer - Curiously enough he's under my radar, among the first I'll check when I have the time.
Wilwa - Looked slightly suspicious early on Day 1, then had a small quarrel with Agan that left me really confused, and now she's under dear Rudolph.
Ed - A classic submarine for me, no idea.
Pitchwife - Still no idea.
Blind Guardian - Too little to go on.
Mänwe - Too little to go on.
Aganzir - A headache. I'm leaving her alone for toDay.
Caílin - See Eomer.

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.

It is not like that, but I am speaking about BG, LRH, who definitely are quiet, and possibly Mänwe, of whom I don't know, but he has not been around for long.

Let me explain it once again. The point is not only about quiet wolves or something, but more about who would make the kills like these that were done. I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

The puzzling thing about this is that it makes it really difficult to find four Wolves among the rest of the players: there won't be too many left.

But of course, aside from that, a bit of meta-reasoning, I find it unlikely that some of the people who have been playing lately would kill Ozzy if they did not have good reason for it (which it seems to me that they didn't). That would rule out most of the people who have been playing lately, and would point more towards people who haven't been playing for some time or who themselves are not around very long: Rikae, Cailín, Mänwe, Mac, of those who have been playing recently but are not long for such a long time yet or whom I could imagine not minding as much whom they kill, maybe BG, LRH, Nessa, possibly also Eomer (?) or Wilwa (?)...

So basically, if I somehow combine this, then that gives the scope of my suspects. Which points more to the "quiet" ones.

But, to finish fully and give all that I am considering, there is the other possibility of the Wolves being fully logical and really following something with their kills - only we don't know what (framing Zil or Nessa, etc, etc), that's why we really desperately need to lynch first at least one of them (that's what I have said already several times, now it is in full context and I hope clear what I have in mind). Because then we might be able to figure out what is that they were doing.

EDIT: xed with one Green.

[Aganzir]

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

10 minutes before the DL Inzil says he doesn't particularly want to vote for Lottie but he would to save himself.

8 minutes before the DL, I ask if anyone considers skip or ed. The votes are Lottie-4, Inzil-3, Nessa-3 while both skip & ed (and a couple of others) have one.

6 minutes before the DL Legate replies he might vote for skip but not in that situation.

5 minutes before the DL Inzil replies he could vote for ed because of her easy votes.
I say I'm probably voting for Nessa but might also go for Inzil.

4 minutes before the DL I vote for Nessa. Nessa-4, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Five people are still left to vote.

3 minutes before the DL Legate votes for Nessa. Nessa-5, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Four people left to vote, one of them Inzil himself (the remaining three hadn't posted to say they were here).

1 minute before the DL Nessa posts.

At the DL, Legate says he should've waited until later with his vote (I was very confused at first, thinking he would've voted for someone else instead if he had seen Nessa's post, but he clarified he was afraid of being outvoted).
Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

[Aganzir]

I don't like Legate's meta-reasoning. It makes me feel a bit better about him though because I think a wolf would actually bother to come up with more appropriate reasons to suspect people.

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

I would not give that much credit to it either. But exactly as you said, you would kill him if you had reason to. I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up, I believe he surely must not have been the only one, and maybe somebody would have had even more Seerish-looking personality.

I really don't know about Zil, because I can imagine that a) he might be just being framed, b) he might be a Cobbler (even more likely) - and in such case, I would prefer to lynch a Wolf to a Cobbler still. (And I know, I know, let's not start the debate about the dangerousness of the Cobbler, the point this time is, that I do not even know for sure if he is a Cobbler... basically it all comes down to if I can find anybody better to vote, anybody who looks more like a Wolf. My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do. So, now what...).

[A Little Green]

Ah. Thanks Legate, you're making much more sense now. (Or rather, I understand what you're saying now.) I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

If a wolvish master plan to mess with our heads exists, I'm pretty convinced Legate is evil. If it doesn't, he's looking slightly better.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nessa --- The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

Inzil might be the cobbler. Or he might be a wolf pretending to be the cobbler. Or an innocent with extremely bad luck.
However if he turns out to be the cobbler, or Nessa to be a wolf, we need to find out why he saved her. Did someone tip him off?

My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the kills look clueless. True, they haven't caught the seer yet - but I think they're being very efficient at bewildering us. (So I disagree on any notion of "quiet"/newbie wolves.)

As for Rikae's retraction, it certainly doesn't make me think her more innocent (even if it doesn't make me more suspicious of her either). Rikae knows full well how to appear innocent whatever her role.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

When you put it like that it sounds silly, yes. What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

Ok, I need to dash now. Will see if I x-posted and then vote and be off.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

This, at least, is consistent with what she said earlier.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

That's true. And in this game, I think the wolves would not be so quick to "bus" one another. They want the double kills to go on as long as possible.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

I was at work. Believe it or not, though I do my best to prioritize and not let things interfere with WW, there are times when I have to get some other things done.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

I'd said in other places that I wasn't comfortable with Nessa. Here I'd suggested to Kit that Nessa could be her hunt. So yes, I thought "Legate 180" might explain what I was doing.

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

I'm telling you that evil as I may appear, killing me will not help this village.

[Cailín]

Valier

#25 Confused about the deadline. Says Boromir88 perhaps looks too reasonable and asks Aganzir for an explanation of her feminist statement on the gender identity of the Seer (sort of a bewildering thing to do).

#81 Nothing

#90 Thinks Pitch and Nessa look fairly innocent. Wilwa looks ok. Expresses some suspicion of Rikae and Shasta, and thinks Lommy and Greenie are quiet in an OOC kind of way.

#91 Agrees with Wilwa.

#102 Suspects Inzil because of his vote for Nessa, and thinks she will vote Inzil or Rikae. (she is pretty consistently defending Nessa here)

#107 Some Seer-related comments. Does not approve of people trying to tell the Seer what to do.

#109 Agrees with Wilwa again

#139 & 140 Questions Lottie. Still suspicious of Inzil because of the vote for Nessa. Votes Inzil.

#146 Accepts Lottie's answer

#167 Thinks Inzil might be being framed by the death of Kath and Oz, or trying to be clever

#199 Agrees with Mac and thinks Kath and Oz were easy, traceless kills. Wonders why the wolves did not go for the Seer (honestly, if our wolf pack is incompetent - which is doubtful in this village - they will definitely after all the remarks we made about it). Defends herself and proclaims her Innocence.

#247 suspects Legate and Skip

#271 A list. Most of the people are don't knows - this is a very vague list for someone whom the wolves might have believed to be the Seer. The only possible Seer statement is on Rikae (whom she suspected yesterDay and thinks innocent now) and Skip whom she suddenly suspects quite strongly. Then again, she does not immediately vote for skip but mentions a whole list of possibles.

#281 Still defends Nessa and votes Skip.

So if the wolves thought Valier was the Seer, then Nessa and Rikae are looking fairly good, and Skip looks bad. I am not convinced - Valier was obviously not the Seer and I cannot quite see how the wolves would have confused her for one - but I will keep this in mind as I go over the posts of those of us actually still alive.

[Rikae]

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

I keep disagreeing with Mac, but I find him innocentish. In his favor, he's very conscientious about new players, so I doubt he would have been OK with killing Oz so early.

I have bad feelings, still, about Pitch and Inzil, and also, although less formed, about Legate and Skip. I fear, though I can't imagne there isn't a wolf among them, that I don't judge between them well since I tend to place them all in the same "group" mentally - skillful, logical male players who joined the 'downs after I did and make rather controlled posts (although Skip's hunter joke might edge him out of that group).

I don't see much use in trying to determine the makeup of the pack with regard to loud and quiet... the village is roughly half and half, but wolves choose based on their individual paranoias, hunches, prejudices, etc. - not how loud or quiet they are - and a pack tends to zero in on someone multiple wolves want to kill, even if it's for different reasons. At least, in my experience, that's how it is - a voting sort of process. Trying to reconstruct it from the village side of things tends to be a bit of a distraction, actually, although there are some things - like who would not likely have killed Oz - that we can deduce.