WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Cailín]

You are one brave man, Shasta.

I'm basing all my thoughts here on Shasta's post #460. Just quickly browsed his posts and this one stood out as hopefully leaving the most obvious clues:

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

From this I gather Shasta did not dream of a wolf, which is probably why he did not reveal. I am also prepared to accept Rikae, Aganzir and Legate (darn - I was sure he was evil) as Known Innocents, simply because there is no more tangible evidence than this and it gives me something.

That leaves

Macalaure
wilwarin538
Nessa Telrunya
Boromir88
A Little Green
Skip Spence
Mänwe

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

To a large extent it is still going to be a stab in the dark toDay. The Cobbler and the Wolves had maybe some idea of each other's identity, but nothing that could be 100% relied upon (unless someone has discovered clues in Pitch's posts - I must admit I did not read very carefully yet). At least now I have some people I can trust.

Going to read what happened yesterDay exactly now, then sleep, but will be around tomorrow.

[skip spence]

Okay.

That was bad (hey, at least we didn't lynch him this time!) and good (finally something tangible to work with).

And lynching the cobbler proved more productive than we could imagine, eh Boro?

Going to have a look at Shasta's posts...

[Macalaure]

11 people left, 4 of which are wolves. If we don't lynch a wolf toDay, it's 4 wolves and 4 innocents toMorrow, and we will have lost. Unless the ranger is lucky, of course.

Let's look at what the seer left us (typing while I read).

Day1: Makes positive remarks about me, Kitanna, Agan, and Legate, me twice. He definitely didn't find a wolf Night1, unless he completely keeps quiet about it.

Day2: He's after Legate a little. In his #252 list there's a host of people he feels good about, but only two he feels "no-nonsense" bad about - Legate and Aganzir. Strangely he lists Agan twice (adding "on" to the "bad Agan"). Is he hinting that Legate is dreamt of and evil while using Agan to make it less obvious to the wolves? He votes Lottie, but mentions he would have prefered Legate.

Day3:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

Obviously, he now dreamt of Legate and clears him unmistakably.
He's very eager to lynch Inzil or Nessa. We know Inzil is innocent, and most likely he dreamt of Legate the night before. Since he didn't mention Nessa much before, I doubt he knows she's evil. My guess is he wants to get rid of enigmas so he won't be forced to waste dreams on them. He also votes innocent Inzil - if he had dreamt of Nessa, he wouldn't have done that. (He also seems uncertain of Nessa the next Day.)

Day4: List in #459:
If he dreamt of anyone guilty, it has to be Manwe, as he's his first item on the analysis list. This might explain why he's dead, even though there was a fair amount of suspicion against him.
He lists me as intermediate, so probably he hasn't dreamt of me after all.
He doesn't list anyone as clearly unsuspicious. He's hiding his known innocent well here.
The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.
He lists nobody as red, though. Maybe he hasn't dreamt of Manwe and his fourth dream is already dead? Did he think listing Manwe as sole prime suspect would be too obvious?
The conclusion of his Manwe analysis is very condemning, but he was very negative about Legate before, too. What sets the two cases apart though:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

That's as plain as it has to be.
His Cailín analysis in inconclusive, which suggests that he did not dream of her and it's just a regular analysis.
He keeps on talking about Agan being the cobbler, which either means he hasn't dreamt of Agan after all (which means he hasn't necessarily dreamt of Rikae either).

Mänwe: known wolf.
Legate: known innocent.
.. would be my conclusion.

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

[Macalaure]

Haha, reading Agan's quote of Shasta's first list, I see that he didn't list Agan twice - the line breaks were just that way on my screen.

Never mind.

[Cailín]

Cailín, you aren't even considering Mänwe - are you sloppy or evil?

Sloppy, I'm afraid. As I said, I only looked at the one post. I honestly did not think Shasta would have been so subtle yesterDay if he had found a wolf, but I guess he may have been trying to be heroic.