Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

YesterDay's voting:

Ang -> Lottie
Green -> Sally
Nerwen -> Elron
Sally -> Lottie 2
Lottie -> Wilwa
Glirdan -> Ang
NONWOLFMith -> Lottie 3
COBBLERtp -> Elron 2
Elron -> Boro
++ Ang -> Lottie 4

I'm somehow uneasy with Fea there.It may be I'm paranoid as she basically did well to prevent the double-lynch. But something still bugs me.

The reason for it I can see though: with Fea's decision it is clear Elron, whom many of us suspected more or less, was saved. Also Fea's claim to do that to prevent a double-lynch 9 minutes before the DL when there were still 7 votes possibly coming looks a bit odd and casts a doubt on to her motives behind the move.

This is what she said 9 minutes before the DL when changing her vote from Nerwen (voted Elron) to Anguirel (voted Lottie):

I don't want to allow for a double lynch, so I'm going to change my vote since I haven't trusted Lottie in quite some time.

The interesting thing here is that the dead votes thus far had been:

Fea - Nerwen --> ed
Lommy - Greenie --> sally
Agan - Nerwen --> ed
Nog - Angu --> Lottie

And Shasta hadn't voted. The probability that if he turned around to vote was high he'd gone with Agan in voting Nerwen as well (thus giving our extravote against Elron). With changing her vote Fea made it sure our extravote would not go against Elron.

That scenario would then aptly explain her clear joy after the results came and her change of mind had actually prevented a double lynch (quite improbable at the time she changed her mind?):

Aaaaand double lynch successfully avoided. You're welcome.

If we'd have time, I'd sure wish to check her for possible cobblery. But it may be we can't afford it at this point of the game. And if she is the other remaining cobbler, then we have a problem here trying to efectively help the village if she can throw in a last minute vote while most of the active dead are from Europe and thus harldy able to stay up to the DL to try and counter that...

I'm sorry Fea if you're not a cobbler, but I hope you see why I have come to these suspicions.


On another note. I am a bit disappointed with how the lynching of Lottie in fact went. While reading it yesterday in a hurry it felt like there were things going on and that we might be able to read something from it - but it does look more confusing now...

Well, we still have time to read and think.