Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ang

OK Boro and phantom, I think we're quite close to being able to three musketeer this thing out

Huh. Scary. Especially if I didn't know he was Glorfy... but even now, given that we don't know what phantom is up to.

(See Nog, I don't trust him either if it's of any comfort.

)

Uh-oh.

See this as well - as he is clearly addressing the phantom all the time...

Quote:

Among these either two or three are gulity:

Nerwen
A Little Green
sally

So the final instructions for tp / correcting him on Greenie?

I don't like it at all. Check my early post on Anguirel toDay and think of what I said in there. And him calling the hunter out after that. Please. It might be the key to this?

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Uh-oh.

See this as well - as he is clearly addressing the phantom all the time... So the final instructions for tp / correcting him on Greenie?

I was actually thinking about phantom when saying 'I don't trust him' (yeah I'm being unclear, sorry!)... But it's still weird an innocent should ask the hunter to reveal, although what I said about getting known innocents stands.

I think Angu's quote meant more like 'Good ol' boy, I know you're the seer and have dreamed of Boro, let's win this now!'

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Angu's quote meant more like 'Good ol' boy, I know you're the seer and have dreamed of Boro, let's win this now!'

Hmm... that is a possibility. Although it's hard for me to see anyone looking at tp as the seer... and taking in al the other things Ang has done I must say I'm leaning towards the interpretation I made in my previous post.

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:17 PM

Explain this exchange to me in other terms than Ang being a wolf with Boro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ang

it's kind of late, what can I say. I'm sure the wolves know what you're into

You seem to want to scrutinise Boro, probs to the point of death, without exactly saying as much. Could you do me a favour and put that plan on hold? I want to lynch somebody really helpful and pleasant instead.

Answered by tp:

Quote:

Originally Posted by tp

No, no- I don't want to kill Boro! That's probably the worst tactical move we could possibly make.

Agreement reached?

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:19 PM

I do like being right, but I hate being right when there's little you can do with it...

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 07:27 PM

'Why did you wait till now and are speaking in code? As if the wolves wouldn't realise what you're doing...'
I don't know about the second sentence though.
And phantom's response: 'Yeah Boro is the hunter and probably hunting me, stay clear of him!'

Mithalwen · 02-04-2011, 07:35 PM

I am very touched that Milord Anguirel is making my social life his top priority... such a thoughtful chap....

And I trust him . The timing explains why he didn't protect Fea.

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

'Why did you wait till now and are speaking in code? As if the wolves wouldn't realise what you're doing...'
I don't know about the second sentence though.
And phantom's response: 'Yeah Boro is the hunter and probably hunting me, stay clear of him!'

Where is that and what does it relate to? I tried to refresh the page but couldn't find that...

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:56 PM

*Enter a reasonable villager who rallies the other to vote for Boro!*

Just a daydream I'm afraid.

Okay, looking back it could as well be Boro, Ang and Sally (thus the suggestion of getting rid of Greenie and defending Sally mildly).

Elron might be the real hunter then, just to inexperienced to be drawn in with the example of a senior? Exactly the thing the wolves wished to know.

Okay. Let's see.

Boro -> tp
Glirdy -> Boro
Greenie -> Sally

So those who have till votes are:

Ang (I say a wolf)
phantom (cobbler clearly in agreement with Ang)

These two can give two votes to anyone they see fit and will probably vote in concerto, esecially if needed.

That leaves us

Elron - a game changer? Sadly no I think.
Sally - could se something but hardly the one to go against the overall mood (and could be the third wolf anyway - thus voting with Ang & tp?).

Which leaves Nerwen to fight for us, unless she is the last wolf (Ang suggesting tp lynching her would talk for her innocense though).

So the chance of there being a real contest toDay with the voting - and thus us having a chance to play a role there is pretty thin. It would require both Nerwen being a goodie and having time and energy and eye to this and launching a major attack there - compelling enough for the other innocents to follow.

Wait, it might be there is only Elron as an innocent with a vote left besides Nerwen. If they both voted for Boro he would gather 3 votes.

Hey, that would mean that if Boro is a wolf (1 vote), Sally is a wolf (1 vote) and as tp is the cobbler (1 vote) now friends with Ang, they'd need to pick someone else!

And what Ang said would support that! He was looking for new suspects like Nerwen or Greenie as they'd hate to lose one of those already having votes?

Together Ang, Sally & tp could give 3 votes to someone thus tying it up with Boro/Sally, if Nerwen and Elron both voted for one of them. Great! Our extravote could make a difference there!

Well, now how likely is that?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fea

The thing is, I've spent literally the entire game trusting Ang and Boro. And if I'm that intensely wrong, it'll be the first time I've misread either of them that problematically. I mean, I've never been wrong about either of them. So I'm inclined to keep trusting them.

Now you both Fea and Mith can't be cobblers... there's only one unknown cobbler left.

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 08:01 PM

Nah. I think it's more likely Angu is telling the truth. My wolves are Nerwen and Greenie (who have kept a nice distance to each other, just look at their posts they're so conveniently 'hullo I'm a wolf and this is my fellow, I'm not really suspecting her but I want to take a look at her some day, whoops I'm so busy it will have to wait, well never mind!'), and probably Boro.

I think phantom is a cobbler who has pegged Boro as a wolf and is now trying to make the innocents believe he's the seer.

But if both he and Nog are cobblers, where's the real seer?

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 08:04 PM

IF ANG IS NOT A WOLF I WILL EAT A HAT IN A LIVESTREAM PERFORMACE IN THE INTERNET!

That is so bad!

And looking at how Elron goes we might forget her helping us as she is just stargazing there...

*headdesk*

That's it then.

The ranger is our only hope fr one more Day - unless she gets lynched toDay.

Nogrod · 02-04-2011, 07:08 PM

If someone held a revolver on my forehead and demanded for a take on the wolves I'd probably say Ang, Boro and Nerwen... (or Elra swopping places with Nerwen as Ang did protect Elron quite boldly earlier).

Well, Ang and Boro anyway? This just looks too much like
a) trying to out the gifteds (and then revealing as one)
b) hinting to the phantom quite openly (different strategies though, but Boro had to leave early - thus the correcting moves by Ang and all the questioning by tp).

Just check this:

Quote:

I'm sorry if I'm being unByzantine here, phantom. I'm alright at lying, and I absolutely love the strategy of actively second guessing nocturnal amusement, but I am useless at cryptography. Actually had to take an exam in it a few months back. Worst candidate they'd had for years

What else is this but trying to tell the phantom that "I'm now straight-talking to you"? No veils, no foolery: "come with us on this and we'll win..." See even the first bolded part. It is a straight call to the phantom and the phantom only. "I'm addressing you here..."

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just check this: What else is this but trying to tell the phantom that "I'm now straight-talking to you"? No veils, no foolery: "come with us on this and we'll win..." See even the first bolded part. It is a straight call to the phantom and the phantom only. "I'm addressing you here..."

Or 'Hey seer, what are you trying to suggest?' If Ang, Boro & Nerwen are the wolves, your point about Angu trying to hint at the phantom about the wolves' identity is invalid.

I'm not sure I like Nog sowing doubt about the gifteds... Because yes I still trust Angu, and ed.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 02-04-2011, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

If someone held a revolver on my forehead and demanded for a take on the wolves I'd probably say Ang, Boro and Nerwen... (or Elra swopping places with Nerwen as Ang did protect Elron quite boldly earlier).

The thing is, I've spent literally the entire game trusting Ang and Boro. And if I'm that intensely wrong, it'll be the first time I've misread either of them that problematically. I mean, I've never been wrong about either of them. So I'm inclined to keep trusting them. It's not like it's to my detriment to be mistaken... I'm already dead.

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 07:50 PM

Boro - phantom
Glirdan - Boro
Green - sally

Left: Angu, Nerwen, phantom, ed, sally

If both Boro, Glirdan and Greenie are innocent, the wolves have almost certainly won. They and the cobbler(s) can just jump on one of the bandwagons. Maybe orchestrate a double-lynch or something.

Aganzir · 02-04-2011, 07:51 PM

I must say I'm not overly fond of Angu asking ed who she's going to hunt... Lie, girl! Just to be on the safe side!

02-04-2011, 07:19 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I do like being right, but I hate being right when there's little you can do with it... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

02-04-2011, 07:27 PM	#6
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	'Why did you wait till now and are speaking in code? As if the wolves wouldn't realise what you're doing...' I don't know about the second sentence though. And phantom's response: 'Yeah Boro is the hunter and probably hunting me, stay clear of him!' __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

02-04-2011, 07:35 PM	#7
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	I am very touched that Milord Anguirel is making my social life his top priority... such a thoughtful chap.... And I trust him . The timing explains why he didn't protect Fea. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

02-04-2011, 08:01 PM	#10
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Nah. I think it's more likely Angu is telling the truth. My wolves are Nerwen and Greenie (who have kept a nice distance to each other, just look at their posts they're so conveniently 'hullo I'm a wolf and this is my fellow, I'm not really suspecting her but I want to take a look at her some day, whoops I'm so busy it will have to wait, well never mind!'), and probably Boro. I think phantom is a cobbler who has pegged Boro as a wolf and is now trying to make the innocents believe he's the seer. But if both he and Nog are cobblers, where's the real seer? __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

02-04-2011, 08:04 PM	#11
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	IF ANG IS NOT A WOLF I WILL EAT A HAT IN A LIVESTREAM PERFORMACE IN THE INTERNET! That is so bad! And looking at how Elron goes we might forget her helping us as she is just stargazing there... headdesk That's it then. The ranger is our only hope fr one more Day - unless she gets lynched toDay. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

02-04-2011, 07:50 PM	#15
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	Boro - phantom Glirdan - Boro Green - sally Left: Angu, Nerwen, phantom, ed, sally If both Boro, Glirdan and Greenie are innocent, the wolves have almost certainly won. They and the cobbler(s) can just jump on one of the bandwagons. Maybe orchestrate a double-lynch or something. __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.

02-04-2011, 07:51 PM	#16
Aganzir Woman of Secret Shadow Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells Posts: 4,511	I must say I'm not overly fond of Angu asking ed who she's going to hunt... Lie, girl! Just to be on the safe side! __________________ He bit me, and I was not gentle.