WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread)

[Bom Tombadillo]

Everahbody seems to be after the phantom. Even disregarding my inherent tendency to defend our shadowy overlord, this seems to be excessive. He's acting his usual self as far as I can tell, so that leaves me with the question of whether this is a justified attack based on evidence that everybody but me can see, or a cunningly initiated bandwagon.

Still, I agree with the resident Lhunatic: There doesn't seem to be much to go on. Thus, this may just be an apparent "safe lynch," given that phantom has already stated that he's likely to be out of the game before long.

OR it could just be me overreacting to joking accusations. After all, the only actual vote slung so far is for Glirdan.

En-ny-way, I'll be back in about an hour to vote, as the next time I can get on will be past deadline.

[Lhunardawen]

The best thing we could hope - dream - to find toDay is Shelob defending/protecting whoever she stung. I say best, but really mean unlikely. So for toDay we're all just really groping around in the dark, literally and figuratively.

I can't help wondering, though, if in the later Days Shelob will be more or less likely to sacrifice her little spiders, knowing there's always a chance to spawn a new one the next Day, as opposed to werecreatures which are fixed in number for the entire game. Would there be a point to that?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

You're considering lynching me?

I honestly do not know whether to feel threatened or pleased with myself.

Oh really? Well then, perhaps you can help. Would it be better for me to lynch you today, or wait a day or two?

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that Wilwa, Lottie, and I are entirely innocent, and unlikely to be converted by Shelob, so I'm going to use that as my primary base of operations for the remainder of the contest. Just fyi.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Serious awesome points for this. Serious points.

I aim to please, O Moddess.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Regarding Laura being replaced with Fea- there was actually a part of me that was wondering if Laura was just Fea in disguise anyway (a rather obvious disguise!) and so my approach will not change.

The same thought crossed my mind, but I really wanted to see Laura in action to have a standard for comparison. Pity, really....

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

The best thing we could hope - dream - to find toDay is Shelob defending/protecting whoever she stung. I say best, but really mean unlikely. So for toDay we're all just really groping around in the dark, literally and figuratively.

That'll be tough to spot. Even if the spawn is in dire straits, it's not in Shelob's best interest to be seen overtly defending them. As the spiderlings increase in number, the chance of one of them getting lynched goes up as well, and that, (pun intended), could come back to bite her.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I can't help wondering, though, if in the later Days Shelob will be more or less likely to sacrifice her little spiders, knowing there's always a chance to spawn a new one the next Day, as opposed to werecreatures which are fixed in number for the entire game. Would there be a point to that?

Depends on how many spawn there are at the time. If there were several she might sacrifice one.

Another thought I had is that the spawn might go out of their way to try and save an innocent at some point. That way, if the spiderling is later lynched and thus found out, it could put the one they'd defended in a pretty poor light.

x/d with tp

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh really? Well then, perhaps you can help. Would it be better for me to lynch you today, or wait a day or two?

I don't know about you, but it would be better if I do not get lynched toDay, or after a day or two. Or at all, for that matter.


Alas, it is late (read: past 2 AM) and so I must vote.

++Loslote

Although I don't believe we've played together before. Luck o' the draw.

[Inziladun]

Ok, it's crunch time. Got to leave for the next couple or hours. I'm not crazy about voting for the two who already have votes. Sooo....

++Boro

Just because he's been strangely quiet and I'm getting even less of a read on him than usual. Really, that's all I've got.

Choose well, folks.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

++Boro

Just because he's been strangely quiet and I'm getting even less of a read on him than usual. Really, that's all I've got.

I always like to do the unexpected, it takes people by surprise.

I'm keeping tabs, just got nothing groundbreakingly brilliant to say, and don't particularly feel like making up stuff that will only add to the page count.

Edit: removing the highlight so it doesn't confuse Ms. Sally.

[Bom Tombadillo]

In light of my forgetting to vote earlier, I'm taking just an eetsy-beetsy second off of what I'm supposed to be doing (you won't tell, will you?):

++Lhunardawen

This may be the pervasive influence of the phantom, but she is acting a bit odd. Although that may be normal, since I can't recall what she's acted like in any of the games I've read . . .

[Nogrod]

Seventy posts with less than two hours to the deadline? That's all we can manage? (okay, I admit I'm one to blame myself but I'm only one of thirteen) No rows between people, no one hurt, no nothing to raise an eybrow?

What I said about Shelob's wishes to stay low as she is alone...

Two quick ones to begin with.

Nerwen: Not quite the traditional "loud-quiet" -discussion as this game is different (there is no team so the lonely spider could much more easily just hunker down - especially looking at the way this game is coming forwards quite lazily).

But what you say about the tspider is just the reason I added that everyone will of course play by their styles - or what I meant more exactly; that a spider wouldn't deviate from her "normal playing style" in a too obvious way, which makes my point a bit less attractive, but still valid, I think.

Referring to tp's count, we basically have two to three Days to bag at least one baddie / get someone saved. So let's not take even this D1 lightly even it looks like there's not much to say or base your vote on.


Btw. If Shelob dies but has already spawned, let's say two spiderlings to maturity, will killing of Shelob end the game or can the two still win together? There is this rule that if Shelob is killed before she has a minion the first stinged will turn into a new Shelob, but how about the situation where there are two or three spiders and Shelob dies?

[the phantom]

Just doing some quick number crunching here. We have 13 players, and currently we have 1 Shelob, 0 Spiderlings, 1 Stung, and 11 Innocents. So, let's see how many failed attempts we can afford.

DAY 1: 1-0-1-11
DAY 2: 1-1-1-9
DAY 3: 1-2-1-7
DAY 4: 1-3-1-5
DAY 5: 1-4-1-3 *game over*

So, four bad lynches gets us dead. And given the odds on Day 4 I'd say realistically three bad lynches in a row nearly kills us.

A successful protection from Sam would keep us alive on Day 5, but the numbers would be 4-5, so all of the Innocents would have to vote correctly and together.

If Sam gets both a protection and a cure we would still be alive on Day 6, but with dead even numbers we'd be as good as dead.

A successful Spiderling lynch would also keep us alive on Day 5, but again it would be tough sledding. A Spiderling lynch paired with a Sam save would again give us a longshot miracle hope for Day 6 but that's about it.

Now, if we manage to get THREE breaks to go our way (Spiderling lynches or Sam protections) then that would give us an actual chance on Day 6.

To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed. Because really, we cannot expect to be able to lynch Spiderlings with any regularity given the fact that they are not a true pack and do not have a dependable history to examine.

[the phantom]

So, first Lhuna looks suspicious in her first post, and then she tries to appease me, and then she goes and votes for one of the two people I declared innocent forever (Lottie).

You're just begging for my attention, m'dear.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

To summarize- if we kill Sam it seems to me that we're screwed.

So don't lynch Sam then. Really, it's very simple.

What do you mean you don't all know who he is? I do! Oh. Right....

[the phantom]

It seems the Mod is determined to have the highest post count.

(You know, even I don't do that in my games, and I'm as chatty as anyone. I'm thinking Sally must be terribly bored today.)

[Nogrod]

Back and reading...

After finishing my jobs I decided to install my new audio software before turning into this - and it took ages with all the different "activations", "registrations", "USB-licenses" and whatnots. Cryptical things. And it doesn't even work yet...

Anyway, I'll be around now for most of the time, first reading.