WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread)

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The reason I went after Lottie at the last minute - I thought she was a spiderling, who thought I was a spiderling. Make sense?

No?

Let me go farther.

The spiderlings don't know who their partners are. So I figured, once there was a number of spiderlings (as opposed to just one), I'd try and cross their wires a bit. I came in yesterDay with a random suspicion of Inzil, whom I hadn't mentioned at all previously, and Lottie immediately jumped on it - that and her other post around the same time (which was also pro-whatever I was saying) made me think she was a spiderling who thought she'd pegged me as another spiderling.

I'm not convinced. Lottie has been suspicious of Zil from the start.

Now, funnily enough, we've got a trio of Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna all of a sudden, out-of-the-blue considering me as a possible lynch.. having previously just mentioned me as "someone to look at". We've also, coincidentally, got a trio of Shelob/Spiderling/Spiderling. Hmmm.

I'm not considering you out of the blue, I've been wary of you for the past couple of Days (but mentioned it only on Day 3 because I was too focused on Noggie yesterDay) for being too submarine. And then yesterDay's voting made you stand out.

I can assure you that if we lynch me, it will be bad for the good side.

[Nogrod]

First some big news!

I seem to have remembered something on D3 I had after that totally forgotten - and I seem not to be the only one...

Originally Posted by me discussing the situation on #301

But the nasty fact is, that if we lynch more innocents and no rangering or healing takes place (and Lhuna's numbers are correct), we'll have toMorrow Shelob + two spiderlings against one stinged and three other innocents. Then lynching an innocent (even the stinged one) toMorrow means we lose.

Oh wait... didn't the number of the baddies need to outnumber the innocents this time? *checked, right they have to* Okay that gives us one more chance, although if a stinged one is not healed the lobber-gang will win.

So we will not lose this toDay but will have two Days to turn this better.



I checked D3 and am not too sure I found anything decisive, but maybe something.

Nerwen and Lhuna suspected tp. Nerwen more carefully questioning his actions (though she voted for him the Day before), Lhuna more like getting points against him. Lottie was also slightly suspecting tp.

tp said Wilwa is innocent, Lottie at most stinged the Night before, Lhuna likely not stinged (according to what I think now outdated theory as Sam most probably has denied doing it).

tp asks Zil how phantomcentric he is. Zil says not as a rule, but needs to battle against that...

tp thought Nerwen his best bet and repeated he would wish to get her lynched if there was a chance. Saved Lottie in the end.


My thought is that stinging tp would be extra-dangerous for Shelob, as if someone, then he would be one able to let others know he has been stinged and thus give Sam a decent chance of healing him (actually said that in my post #325). But looking at from that way I think it makes Nerwen look a bit better as if tp was suspecting her she might have been the one to gain a lot of attention by him the next Day. So to a Nerlob stinging tp would have been very risky indeed.

Lottie and Lhuna suspect phantom from a position where they are more or less trusted by him (and Lottie already now gone). Whuch means Lhuna could have been more confident in trying to sting tp. But that isn't much either.

anyway the one doing it must have either thought s/he was in no big trouble if s/he stinged him - or just didn't think about the dangerousness of that bussiness.



Okay. Greenie came to spend the weekend with me a bit earlier I thought (and there will be a semifinal match between Finland and Russia in the World Championships this evening), but I will still be hanging some time here as well during the rest of the Day. Hopefully being able to do something of consequence.

Also I'm looking forwards to Sam opening his mouth and giving us some thoughts from the brainstorming with Frodo.

But for now, I'm off...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Zil voted against Lottie to "save" Nerwen.

What if Zil did vote against Lottie to save Nerwen?

I mean granted, Zil had been suspecting Lottie rather consistently, but it could have just turned out to be convenient.

And granted they're sort of suspecting each other now (well, mostly Nerwen suspecting Zil), but I guess they could be bold enough to do it now with the numbers very closely in their favour.

Or maybe I'm completely off my rocker.

You're completely off your rocker. Actually, though, it is possible that Zil (or Nog or Shasta) is a Spiderling who thinks I'm another– though I have no idea why that would be, as I really don't think I've been particularly suspicious, nor can I recall saying anything that could be construed as an eight-legged hint. So I think it's more likely Zil took the opportunity to lynch Lottie, who had been after him for ages.

This might even be an honest reaction– I said one of them has to be evil, not that it has to be Zil. His vote did pretty much force the issue, though.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm not convinced. Lottie has been suspicious of Zil from the start.

Mmmn. My turtledove, Lottie had been pointing at Zil and yelling "SPIDER! SPIDER!" since about Day 2. Did you really manage to miss this?

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If you turn out to be a baddie, Zil, I'm going to hate you as long as we're both decaying in this barrow. (You can ask Eomer - I never got over hating him after Werewolf VII. )

I would say the same of you. I have no plans to vote for you, and if you turn out to be evil, especially if you're Shelob, you're my Day 1 vote from now on.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think there must be at least two baddies in the group Zil + Nog + Shasta. Probably not all three, as I don't see why they'd want to stick their necks* out that far just to get an ordo lynched.

Nog's vote yesterDay looks better than Shasta's. It's possible an evil Nog could have taken advantage of the chance to lynch an innocent Lottie, but his reasoning seems sound enough to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mmmn. My turtledove, Lottie had been pointing at Zil and yelling "SPIDER! SPIDER!" since about Day 2. Did you really manage to miss this?

Indeed. Lottie was hardly getting after me just because Shasta tricked her into it. Shasta= spiderling?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Lottie is lynched and is not a baddie, do Wilwa check tp #405. If she is a baddie make your choice from elsewhere.

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here? At first glance I thought you were trying to say that if Lottie was innocent, I would look more suspicious, but that makes no sense, so I don't know what this means. Unless you were trying to tell me something about phantom, but in that case I don't know what Lottie has to do with that. So yeah, confused.

We have 2 Days before we lose if we don't get a spider, right? And someone is guaranteed to get stung toNight, since Sam can't do anything. So getting Shelob toDay would be super awesome.

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be. I'd also be super surprised if Shasta was Shelob.

So who's left: Nog, Inzil, Nerwen and Lhuna. I'm fairly equally suspicious of all of them. They all seem like possible Shelobs to me, so I will go back and look over them a bit more. Just off gut feeling though, I'm leaning towards Nog or Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here?

Easily.

Just as it reads: if Lottie is lynched and is innocent it means phantom is probably a goodie as well - and thus his hinting is something you should pay heed to, and thus not a baddie bluff. But if Lottie turned out a baddie (and not Shelob), then you should not listen to the siren songs made by tp as he would be a mate in crime.

What Lottie has to do with tp? You must be blind (or you have not read the thread).

tp declares Lottie good and not to be lynched like on D1. tp risks / causes no-lynch to save Lottie on "overtime" - with no explanation whatsoever. How do you read it? Baddies (Lottie choosing tp as her first minion felt like a very reasonable choice).

But then his increased hinting about his role made me uneasy. If he was indeed calling for Sam in earnest then we should not lynch him as not to deny him his chance to discuss with Sam - but he could be a baddie as well who came up with this scheme of acting like Frodo and possibly straying Sam into guessing wrong.

That's why - heavily suspecting him and Lottie doing things evilly together, but being afraid he could on anpther interpretation have a goodie-role - I wanted to find it out for good by lynching Lottie (whose role was instrumental in finding it out).

Why did I think tp was Frodo? Look at his early post where he says that if Sam makes it wrong we lose the entire game... Isn't that rather extreme interpretation of our situation? Well not according to phantom as the game is lost if he isn't allowed to discuss with Sam and organise the end-game...

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be.

I agree with you with Fea being a possibly tempting target for stinging (actually said it alredy toDay), but what makes you so confident she just can't be / isn't Shelob? You make it sound quite catecorigal...

I also agree with the top priority, well who doesn't as the game ends with the death of Shelob , but I'd be happier to lynch a probable spiderling than a possible Shelob - if you get what I mean? And no, I'm not saying we should rush lynching Fea. I think we should look widely around.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Re-doing and finishing the list I started earlier toDay.

Fea: As I've said now twice - a possible / probable spiderling because of being a safe sting for Shelob (not too high chance Sam rangers or heals her but not easily lynched either).

Shasta: A basic dilemma between a possibly reasonable trick and needing to pull out an afterwards explanation. It would be odd he had not noticed Lottie had been after Zil for more or less the whole game though.

Lhuna: One that could have had nerves to sting phantom as he seemed to trust her openly. But like I said earlier, knowing tp and his ability to make his point known then stinging him would have been a really bad idea as he could make himself known to Sam for healing (Shelob couldn't have known he was Frodo anyway).

Nerwen: She was suspecting phantom enough to vote him on D2. Would have been more or less suicidal to sting tp as she was the only one tp consistently wished to lynch. Unless she felt so much pressure from him that she decided to act on it sooner than later?

Inzil: Here I see my lack of time as I have no decent view on him (well he seems always to be a hard one for me to read). But I see many people have suspected him, so why wouldn't someone suspecting him come forwards with a kind of summa summarum suspicion, why is it you suspect him so that even I kew where to look and at which points.

wilwa: I think everyone of us have had their fair share of suspicion (except for Fea maybe), but none speaks of you. So it seems that even the baddies feel restrained to question you (I have been waiting for someone to do so), so it's good to have one on board we do not even consider lynching and thus one choice less.


Finland meets Russia in ice hockey semifinals and I'll start to look at the game with Greenie, but I'll have my laptop open and try to view this every now and then the next two hours...

[Lhunardawen]

Hmmm. Not a lot of new posts. It's late and I'm tired and should really go to bed.

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:

I'm virtually certain there are two baddies in the trio I mentioned earlier (Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna), but I think Lhuna has just made herself my first lynch choice.

Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

Good night (morning, actually), all.

[wilwarin538]

K, that's what I figured you meant by it Nog, but initially upon reading it, it almost sounded like you were saying I would look bad if Lottie was innocent (and since you have seemed to trust me, I didn't get why you thought that). Makes sense now.

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.