WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lhunardawen · 05-14-2011, 11:55 AM

So this is how things stand at this point, as my limited understanding allows.

We have Shelob, 2 spiderlings, and 1 been-stung with 6 living players. So we're tied at 3.

Scenario 1: We lynch Shelob.
Yay.
Odds: 1/6

Scenario 2: We lynch a spiderling.
Day ends with Shelob and 2 spiderlings against 2 innocents. Bad.
Odds: 1/3

Scenario 3: We lynch the been-stung.
See scenario 2.
Odds: 1/6

Scenario 4: We lynch an innocent.
Duh.
Odds: 1/3

So our ONLY choice of winning is by lynching Shelob toDay. Wow.

05-14-2011, 11:55 AM	#22
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	So this is how things stand at this point, as my limited understanding allows. We have Shelob, 2 spiderlings, and 1 been-stung with 6 living players. So we're tied at 3. Scenario 1: We lynch Shelob. Yay. Odds: 1/6 Scenario 2: We lynch a spiderling. Day ends with Shelob and 2 spiderlings against 2 innocents. Bad. Odds: 1/3 Scenario 3: We lynch the been-stung. See scenario 2. Odds: 1/6 Scenario 4: We lynch an innocent. Duh. Odds: 1/3 So our ONLY choice of winning is by lynching Shelob toDay. Wow.