WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Legate of Amon Lanc;657503]General list:

Why do you think not knowing the rules is suspicious? I would think the opposite - WWs especially really have to read the rules, so that they can operate properly. QUOTE]

Well for exactly that reason of course!!! So if you make a show of not knowing the rules I think it may be a wolf trying to created the impression of innocence "I don't know hte rules so I can't be anyone important". It proved ot be the case a few times back in the day so it was to me worth commenting on..it isn't a sophisticated strategy I admit.. but at that stage of the day there wasn't an awful lot to go on.

As for Shasta - the opening post was so odd I felt there had to be some history so I asked and was satisfied, for the time being. So far so werewolf.......

[Nogrod]

Okay. That Bom's post (#26) is an interesting case indeed.

First there is this joke about the first three posters being naturally the werewolves (including himself, with Nilp and Sally) - when did this folklore went astray? I think the original claim was that a werewolves will post within the first ones as they're happy to play and get involved (which made sense, at least back then), then it knid of turned into a ww being amidst the first three and / or that the first poster is a ww... Well this version of Bom's is new to me, getting ever farther from something that originally had an idea.

Be the history of the saying what it may, the point here is he starts with this joking mode (including himself as a wolf).

Then he makes the clause: if there are retrackies, he will vote for "deatwish!Sally, until such time as further evidence is presented."

Now this to me looks more like innocent talk (added with the beginning-joke) than crafty wolvery.

But then he goes on to slightly "improve" his case against Sally with his interesting take on logic which I find hard to interpret as to whether it is in a total joke mode or is he actually trying to persuade people with it?


All in all, I'm still reluctant to vote for Bom just for that, and because this is his first/second game(?).

If there is no reaally suspicious person to vote I'd rather go to those who try to be really neat and unprovoking, careful, easy, non-commitant, unnoticed, low, behind a mask, only bantering... whatever.

[Nogrod]

The way Kit posts is the reason I don't want her to get lynched. Actually I'm a bit jealous right now as she does what I tend to be doing normally. But I'm a bit out of energy right now and am not able to raise to her level of really going into it. I hope I will do better the next Days if alive.

But also I think there is an interesting discrepancy between the level of thought by the analyser and the analysed. I think Sally went on her own carefree manner making an early post she didn't think was nothing serious but just something to toy with while repeating her info about her situation in a jokeful manner. Then Kit makes this "serious-player move" (which I tend to do oftentimes myself - and which people should start doing on D2 the latest, everyone) analysing that post's indications into all their variable conclusions just over-analysing it into pieces Sally probably never had thought of herself (even if she was a baddie).

In a sloppy Day like this I think Kit is the last one to be lynched. We need more players like her, not less.

[satansaloser2005]

Eomer in a warg shell....

Says we have a "careful village" and that talk for the sake of talk is useless.
Mentions Galadriel's tendency to defend me.
Tells me I always look like a cobbler.
Talks about pigeons.
Describes the sudden jump on Stealth Yellowboots as "bewildering."
Sees the humor in Bom's "suspicious" post, and doesn't see why people are making such a big deal of it.
Calls Galadriel out on her defense of me and her suspicion of Bom and Kit.
Votes for Galadriel for the reasons listed above.
"Compassion gets you nowhere in Werewolf."


He seems fine to me, balanced and logical as well as picking up on the humor where people intend for it to be found. While I don't agree with him on Kit, I'm thinking that he's not a wolf, or if so, not a wolf with her. I can't possibly disagree with him on Galadriel because, well, what he says is so true. My hesitation is brought about by her newness and the likelihood that her "guilt" is just newbie mistakes, which is why I am hesitant to follow his vote.


I'll have to think on this for a bit, but I need to go soon, so I'll see what else I have to say before I leave.


EDIT: x'd since my last, bolding

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well for exactly that reason of course!!! So if you make a show of not knowing the rules I think it may be a wolf trying to created the impression of innocence "I don't know hte rules so I can't be anyone important". It proved ot be the case a few times back in the day so it was to me worth commenting on..it isn't a sophisticated strategy I admit.. but at that stage of the day there wasn't an awful lot to go on.

Oh yes, I see. Well, I wouldn't say however that it was a "show" - it was related to some votes and it seemed like a rather random addendum. In my opinion, making a show of not knowing the rules would look different - more like "hey, so tell me please, how was it with the Ranger, actually?" Or whatever... But anyway, I see now where you were coming from.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

The more Sally speaks though, the more I wonder. She's just rambled for a lot of posts.

Well, I think that really goes for very many people around here, and so I don't see it applying to Sally in particular in any case. Although other things you say about sally might be more valid, possibly, but generally I am not really that much suspecting her.

Update on Nog - he seems more like his innocent self this far, I think (this sort of threatening-y, "I have some clear ideas of what is right and what is wrong and now I shall explain to you"-type of posting).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

(this sort of threatening-y, "I have some clear ideas of what is right and what is wrong and now I shall explain to you"-type of posting).

Hey!

Maybe I'm on a "detached senior statesman mood" today?

But to be honest, no, I don't have any clear ideas on what's right or wrong, but I do see some patterns emerging that take place time and time again. Like that people will stuck into talking about the first one or two people the talk starts revolving around and in the end there's little other possibilities but to vote them as nothing else has been discussed.

I mean if there is something really suspicious that starts the discussion, then that is just fair, but most often that is not the case and an innocent gets lynched because of these game-dynamics.

Which is not to say I think or know that Sally and/or Bom are innocents. They just feel more like it than not at the moment.

[Mithalwen]

Show may be too strong a word but I was trying to make the distinction that querying the rules is not necessarily a genuine enquiry - especially when there are admin threads - and indeed pms for that sort of the thing. There is a difference between asking (faux-) naif questions about things that can be learned easily by reading the start of the thread and for example, in our current situation of wondering what significance the Ranger twist might have. It certainly could make a difference, btw, particularly in a relatively small village - and there is a good chance of it coming in to play since someone the Ranger prioritises to protect is quite likely to be a wolf priority.

So some things belong on Admin threads others on game threads. That was the point of them originally. Not a hard and fast rule - and I am not having a pop at Nogrod on that score - I have cited RL at times I know . Saying I am having a bad day is again different to announcing the game should be played to one players schedule. But maybe I am just a grouchy and irritable old woman.

[Mithalwen]

Way back when I first modded Kitanna was right about just about everything and ignored and lynched. The village lost and it was a heavy loss. A serious player verily.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Way back when I first modded Kitanna was right about just about everything and ignored and lynched. The village lost and it was a heavy loss. A serious player verily.

Yes, but if she's evil, then by your logic she's serious evil. I'm just sayin'.



x'd since the post I quoted, as I got distracted by a tiny feathered creature

[satansaloser2005]

Ah. My apologies, sir Nog. As long as you're not using that argument to keep Kit (or anyone else) around just because she tickles your ears (and using it indefinitely), I don't have a problem with it. Indeed, I agree with you, but we must remember that baddies can be golden-tongued and that we need to keep an eye on them as much as on the submarines.

Speaking of submarines....Shasta, darling? Where are you?


I'm going to go have a look at Eomer, I do believe. After all, I don't want to get so caught up in what Kit's been saying that I neglect her (possible) packmates.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yes, but if she's evil, then by your logic she's serious evil. I'm just sayin'.



x'd since the post I quoted, as I got distracted by a tiny feathered creature

I didn't say otherwise. But she has provided some proper analysis not just lists saying I can't decide about x... and she seems to have had an effect on you. If you were a horse there would be a stewards enquiry after that change of form. Just sayin.... Two hours left so time to read through in the light of the relative flood of posts....and votes.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Way back when I first modded Kitanna was right about just about everything and ignored and lynched. The village lost and it was a heavy loss. A serious player verily.

I remember that oh so well. 'twas my first game and no one gave me this so-called "newbie pass". Rather I was mercilessly killed on Day 2...if I ever see Morm on the street I'll shake my fist at him and scream "it was all your fault". Because of this I never give newbies a free ride because I'm a cranky and bitter young woman. :P

But I digress. I feel like I missed a lot yesterday after I voted. Sooo I'm going to have to reread the thread and go from there. For now I maintain my Sally is guilty stance. I noticed some buzz around Galadriel. I'll be looking at her and those who brought her up. Let's see where this takes me.

[Galadriel55]

What luck, Shasta!

However, on the bright side, one wolf down!!! I'm so not sorry now that my posts "hit her over the head like baby fish"!

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Anyway, Galadriel's clinging onto me makes me a bit suspicious of her, as I've previously stated, and then her vote for Lommie....what? It strikes me as quite a random and possibly evil thing to do, especially since it was a throwaway vote for someone who had barely been around (though I'll have to take a closer look before I make any more specific statements about it).

When I voted I crossed with 2 other Lottie-votes and didn't edit to say so since time was precious and could not be wasted on such petty matters (Just like Sally's phone, my computer wanted to make my life difficult, and took about a minute to load the post-your-reply-page! >.<). When I voted it did not seem like a throwaway vote at all.

Why Lommy?

Originally Posted by Me in #157

Lommy's posts are somewhat fishy - she has no opinions well into the Day, and decides to vote for Lottie as soon as Shasta casts suspicion on her, but then decides against it.

That was a very brief explanation. More stuff to add:

An hour before DL she still didn't have any solid opinions on anyone, which is quite strange, because there has been enough going on yesterDay. She said that "none of the arguments really convince" her in #128. She was very quick to jump on Shasta's reasoning - right he was to suspect Lottie as we know toDay, but how would I have known yesterDay? - in #140. Moreover, she was around for some time - less than I have, but still - and didn't post anything except for some shaky impressions. Unnaturally quiet as well, considering the heaps of information.

All that combined made me vote for her yesterDay.

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

ETA: I'll be back in some time after my brain digests everything.

[Kitanna]

I started with Galadriel simply because I know she garnered some attention, including some from Lottie.

1) First WW post ever
2) Comment to Nilp
3) Question to me about my joke post
4) Response to Sally
5) Directed at Nilp

Do you want me to vote you for jumping onto conclusions? There hardly have been any posts! (and come on, Lottie gave you a compliment, and you call her a wolf?! That's not nice!)

This doesn't have to mean anything outside of a joke, but it tickled me.
6)

I don't think that Sally would have endangered herself that much in her first post if she has a special role. However, I see what you mean about Bom. He's really pushing a sallywagon, or trying to.

...

Kit is #2 on my suspision list, for saying that Bom is pushing a sallywagon and pushing it herself yet further.

...

The only explanation I could come up with is that you are a wolf who speaks while plotting who will be the first victim. And you're debating about Bom to make yourself look unconnected to him.

I find her coming to interesting conclusions. Certainly Bom could easily have been steering conversation to Sally, but that's not a bandwagon, nor did I accuse him of bandwagoning. She also says I was trying to start one on Sally while criticizing Bom. But what is more interesting is that she thinks we are cohorts debating openly during the Day. I can be stupid and foolish, but even I think that's a silly idea for wolves. It seems a strange conclusion to state, especially on Day 1. But that doesn't seem so strange of Galadriel, but her defense of Sally is odd. However, at this point in her posts she doesn't look too suspicious.
7) Nothing really, just asking people not to put off to the last hour. Responsible, but not entirely helpful.
8) Nothing helpful
9) Asks about Legate and Eomer, nothing helpful
10) This is interesting. Greenie made comments on Galadriel's suspicions and then turned out to "I'm not accusing them. I just want to keep on eye on them."

If in my reply to Kit I made it sound like a direct accusation, I didn't intend to

Looks to me like you believed Bom and I were wolves plotting against Sally. This preoccupation with Sally. I find it strange she changes her opinion after being confronted about them.
11) Nothing helpful
12) Says Sally seems like a cobbler, but not a wolf. Obviously there is no cobbler and I regret ever making the statement because it is a moot point.
13) Responds to Eomer and his vote for her. At one point before this point Sally says her defense of her is "scary", I wouldn't go that far. I can't see any reasoning from her why she's you're innocent and it's certainly a strange stance. At the point she defended you against Bom's mercy killing and my suspicions you hadn't said much. Scary? Not really. Odd? Yes.

Kit makes more sense to me now - after a couple more posts - but at that time she didn't.

I might be wrong (I'm only reading Galadriel's and Galadriel mentioned posts) but at this point some had stated they didn't want me dead on Day1. That means not many votes, if any, coming my way. She suspected me pretty heavily it looked like in her sixth post. Then after Greenie commented she started to change her tune. Now she's almost completely flipped on her stance toward me, while maintaining her suspicions of Bom.

Yes, seeing as I don't want you - an innocent in my books so far - be lynched.

This is actually more scary than anything she had said about Sally beforehand. I don't think there was a time when Sally was really in danger, especially right here. Most, if not wholly supportive of her, at least didn't see Sally as wolfish (myself excluded (my hat, dear Sally! )) so why worry she's going to get lynched?
14)

Bom Tombadillo - spread suspicion and then disappeared. I wish he would post a bit more, and at least react somehow.
Nogrod - I need to reread his posts, as I'm having a hard time understanding some of his arguments. So far so good for the vibes.
Shasta - makes some good points (even though I don't agree with everything he says)
Kitanna - suspects Bom for suspecting Saly, but suspects Sally herself. First is inclined to vote for Bom, but changes her mind and votes Sally. Interesting (I'm not sure if it's in a good or a bad way...)
Sally - looks innocentish, but you've probably heard enough of that from me.
Eomer - no impression. Popped in to make a couple comments and to vote me.
Nerwen - as has been said before, guarded and careful. Too quiet. No impression.
Loslote - didn't say too many things either. No impression. A bit weird that she has nothing to say.
Greenie - doesn't think of Bom as very suspicious, yet vote for him. Also interesting.
Lommy - also not too many posts. Didn't comment a lot.
Nilp - where are you?
Legate - suspects Sally because I called her an innocent. Otherwise, looks good.
Mith avoided all the me-bom-kit-sally tangle. Didn't take sides. Didn't commit herself to anything. Made some fair points, but stayed aside.

I haven't decided what to make of this. It looks like her suspicions of Bom were dropped because he appears to be one of the only ones she doesn't offer up as innocentish or guilty.
15) Vote count
16)

I could vote for Greenie, Eomer, Lommy, and possibly Nilp, but there has been limited participation from all of them...
Lommy's posts are somewhat fishy - she has no opinions well into the Day, and decides to vote for Lottie as soon as Shasta casts suspicion on her, but then decides against it. She will probably be my candidate.

I need to reread Lommy's posts before completely committing to an idea, but before she said she didn't find Eomer or Nilp. She makes somewhat of a case against Lommy in this post and had a little bit of one for Greenie previously. But what about the other two?
17) Votes Lommy
18) Vote count
19) Had forgotten to bold post, edited vote post
20) Nothing helpful
Day 2:
21)

An hour before DL she still didn't have any solid opinions on anyone, which is quite strange, because there has been enough going on yesterDay. She said that "none of the arguments really convince" her in #128. She was very quick to jump on Shasta's reasoning - right he was to suspect Lottie as we know toDay, but how would I have known yesterDay? - in #140. Moreover, she was around for some time - less than I have, but still - and didn't post anything except for some shaky impressions. Unnaturally quiet as well, considering the heaps of information.

Reasons for voting Lommy

that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

And now she's flip-flopped on Lommy.

What I find stranger than her belief in Sally's innocence is her flip-flopping. She makes one case and then once it is commented on by another she goes back on her suspicions. That strikes me has more sinister than thinking Sally is innocent, she wasn't the only one. She just seemed to be the only one who really made a headline of it.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time are in UT. Known innocents italicised, known baddies underlined, person/s in the lead bolded.)

1857 Greenie - Bom (Bom - 1)
2129 Kit - Sally (Bom - 1, Sally - 1)
2141 Eomer - G55 (Bom - 1, Sally - 1, G55 - 1)
2314 Shasta - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 1, G55 - 1, Lottie - 1)
2339 Mith - Sally (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 1)
2352 Leg - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 2)
2353 Lommy - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3)
2354 G55 - Lommy (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3, Lommy - 1)
2356 Nog - Lottie (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 4, Lommy - 1)
2358 Nilp - Nilp (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 4, Lommy - 1, Nilp - 1)
0001 Sally - G55 (Bom - 1, Sally - 2, G55 - 1, Lottie - 3, Lommy - 1, Nilp - 1) [did not count]

The following people look good due to their votes (in order of perceived innocence):

1. Shasta (The first stone. Um, yes, obviously, he's innocent. Might have been suspected as the Seer, resulting in his death.)
   
   
2. Lommy (The avalanche, part 2. Her suspicion of Lottie was somewhat less substantiated than those below. We have this, then this after Shasta's Lottie-lysis. (Lysis, heh.) However, the timing of her vote puts her higher on the list; it would be funny if the she and Leg and Lottie were the wolfpack, and this 'oops crossvote' incident unintentionally killed one of them. But that would have been highly unlikely. Therefore she's the villager I trust the most, for now.)
   
   
3. Leg (The avalanche, part 1. This is a fine piece of deduction, I must say--the baddies (who know more than any other villager) would fear saying too much, so they would post something that actually says nothing.)
   
   
4. Nog (The coup de grâce. He could have voted for Sally, putting her in a shared lead with Lottie; he even said that he had intended that here. But he homed in on Lottie due to her slip regarding Kitanna (q.v.). There could be an element of someone knowing a little too much; which at this time, would point more to a baddie than the Seer, but not at this time.)

Now, I've put my doubts regarding their innocence cos there's a caveat to this list; I have myself in three instances offered fellow baddies to the lynch mob to obtain that cloak of feigned innocence--as our dearly departed InzilaMod might remember. Also, there's that matter of Mac sending two of his packmates to the gallows, foiling a post-double-lynching mathematical victory I (as the seer) have struggled to prepare.

However, they shall be quite low on my suspect list, unless the Seer should contradict me, or should they say something quite damning.

My suspects next. After finishing episode four of Madoka Magica. (Priorities!)

[Thinlómien]

Bom Tombadillo - creating a lot of controversy. I don't know what to make of his fishy jump on Sally, but on the whole it feels more like a new player attracting suspicion in the oh-so-typical newbie manner...

Nogrod - seems to be making sense this far, but seems a little uptight and cautious - but I'm ready to attribute that to RL stuff for the time being.

Shasta - says little, ergo I can say little about him.

Kitanna - for once, I don't quite get where all the Kitanna-suspicion is coming from. I don't necessarily agree with everything she says, but she seems sensible enough. I wouldn't like to lynch her toDay - it would be a poor thanks for beasically keep the discussion going on toDay.

G55 - wouldn't believe it's her first game, she's so sharp. Can't say if she's good or evil though.

Sally - well, I can't see why she has been made such a fuss of toDay. I'm more inclined to think she's innocent than not (I seem to recall she only makes such a show of her innocence when she's innocent) but of course this is not foolproof reasoning.

Eomer - no idea yet. Seems annoyingly self-confident but that's just typical I guess.

Nerwen - can't recall anything she said, which is a little worrisome.

Loslote - see above, except that I recall her flirting with Nilp.

Greenie - seems more innocent than not, but that might be just because her comment about flip-flopping made me happy.

Nilp - I'm wondering whether I want to start the debate about the meaning of Nilp's lack of self-vote... I would be happy if he had just finally changed his playing style a little.

Mithalwen - can't say much yet either.

Legate - sensible enough, however this doesn't mean much.


Wow, that was quite a piece of no opinions. I clearly need to shrapen my brain.


edit: xed with everything
edit2: in fact didn't crosspost with anything that was on the previous page, sorry!