PHANTASY FOOTBALL: Arda Cup 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

All true to your analysis, Nilp?

Almost all, save for my two obligatory spots for Finrod and Tar-Míriel. (And perhaps Arien--there might be a safer pick, like a Tol Eressëa or TiG MF, but she's a long-term investment.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

(And perhaps Arien--there might be a safer pick, like a Tol Eressëa or TiG MF, but she's a long-term investment.)

Isn't she a forward? (I just threw her out because she conflicted with Mr. Namo of Pelori... Maybe I should have done the opposite...)

Originally Posted by Boro

That aside, wonderful work Nilp with all the stats and power rankings!

Seconded! (It's beyond me how you calculate most of them)

[Inziladun]

in the captaincy.

GK- **Ungoliant--Angband (C)

DF- Gamil Zirak--Beleriand
DF- Sangahyando--Minas Morgul
DF- *SkipWolf--TIG
DF- *Nazgul #5--Mordor

MF- Figwit--Eregion
MF- Elrohir--Eregion
MF- Luthien--Doriath
MF- *Aragorn--Eriador

FW- *Bombadil--The Forest
FW- Fingon--Himring

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Isn't she a forward? (I just threw her out because she conflicted with Mr. Namo of Pelori... Maybe I should have done the opposite...)

Well, 4-5-1 and 4-4-2 are both legal formations, and there's the extra 1 pt from an MF shutout (and perhaps a goal.) But, as the Felagundion had said, Arien is hot. (And the Pelóri defence has been less than stellar.)

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Seconded! (It's beyond me how you calculate most of them)

Hehe, the secret to stats reporting and analysis is pretending you know everything about what you're talking about.

(But seriously, I just start with the assumption that more goals = good, and less goals allowed = also good, and then go from there. Boro used a ranking that takes goalkeeper performance separately, which may be more accurate. But it's more work, so laziness wins.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

(But seriously, I just start with the assumption that more goals = good, and less goals allowed = also good, and then go from there. Boro used a ranking that takes goalkeeper performance separately, which may be more accurate. But it's more work, so laziness wins.)

Yeah, that's the basic general assumptions to make.

Last year I had only done the 16 playoff teams and ranked them here.

And I just rated each teams offense, defense, and goal keeping on a scale of 1 to 5, then combined them to give an overall. I was happy with how the rankings turned out, and how fairly close they were. Even though Gondolin was ranked 5th I thought they were one of the super powers and they wound up winning. Vinyamar was 6th, and finished 2nd. With Mithrim finishing 3rd and Utumno 4th, so I was quite pleased with how that turned out last year.

However, that took so much time it was impossible for me to keep up, so this year I just basically did the same thing as Nilp, ranked teams from 1 to 32, and just kept the goal keeping part, since I do think goalies play a significant enough role in a teams chances, that they should be separated from the defense.

Then I've just been eye-balling everything and going from there. It also helps that someone else is doing it, to double-check against.

I just wish I had better success at picking the right players for my team, I've never done well at that, other than a few years ago, refusing to follow the Miriel bandwagon.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hehe, the secret to stats reporting and analysis is pretending you know everything about what you're talking about.

Exactly!

And in truth as well... we who make the game descriptions, or any "analysis" or predictions, do not know more than any of you others (we who write the descriptions get the results a bit earlier but it requires us to have made our own team-changes & any predictions we offer before we get them) ... and the stats can be gathered by anyone.

But whether the one doing all the job is just a pathetic nerd or the great hero, well that depends.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

[b]Wolf Pack/b]
GK **Huan (Doriath)
DF Great Warg (Wilderland)
DF Tar Palantir (Westernesse)
DF Tulkas (Valinor)
DF Chief Wolf (Misty Mts)
MF *Hurin (Doriath)
MF *Durin’s Bane (Misty Mts)
MF Saruman (Misty Mts)
MF *Finrod (Tirion) (C)
FW Aredhel (Tirion)
FW Finwe (Tirion)

------------------------

-- Great Warg (Wilderland)
-- Chief Wolf (Misty Mountains)
-- *Durin's Bane (Misty Mountains)
-- Aredhel (Tirion)
-- Finwe (Tirion)

++ Celeborn (Lothlorien)
++ NilpWolf (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
++ Ar Adunakhor (Westernesse)
++ NerWolf (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
++ **Turin (Doriath)

---------------------

Wolf Pack
GK **Huan (Doriath)
DF Celeborn (Lothlorien)
DF Tar Palantir (Westernesse)
DF Tulkas (Valinor)
DF NilpWolf (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
MF *Hurin (Doriath) (C)
MF Ar Adunakhor (Westernesse)
MF Saruman (Misty Mts)
MF *Finrod (Tirion)
FW NerWolf (Tol-In-Gaurhoth)
FW **Turin (Doriath)

------------

I figure for this round I should jump on the Turin-bandwagon just to keep up - especially since Doriath is playing Shire-Bree. I won't go so far as to captain him, though. My darling NerWolf is there because so far Silent Watcher hasn't impressed me as Mordor's GK, and I think we've got a pretty good shot at scoring several times against him. I do back Misty Mountains as my personal favorite to win, but I don't expect them to do extremely well against Wilderland, which is why I dropped Chief Wolf and Durin's Bane (that and I needed another star for Turin). I'll probably pick them both back up later in the tournament.

[Nerwen]

Returning the compliment–

Notorious Nerwenites
GK Shastawolf (TIG)
DF Malbeth (Westernesse)
DF Elendil (Westernesse)
DF KuruWolf (TIG)
DF Draugluin (Angband)
MF Luthien (Doriath)
MF Khamûl (Wilderland)
MF *Húrin (Doriath)
FW Smaug (Wilderland)
FW *Maeglin (Angfauglith)
FW **Turin (Doriath) (C)


––**Manwe (Pelori)
––Watcher (Misty Mts)
––Saruman (misty Mts)

++Shastawolf (TIG)
++Draugluin (Angband)
++Luthien (Doriath)