Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bracket:



Power Ranking:



(Teams in bold are quarterfinalists, teams in italics are eliminated.)

Greatest gain:

• +6 Tol Eressëa*
• +5 Tirion*
• +4 Barad-dûr*
• +2 Eregion

*[These teams were below the top 16 in the previous Power Ranking.]

Greatest loss:

• -2 Wilderland, Valinor, Minas Morgul
• -1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth, Misty Mts, The Forest

The Power Ranking is based on the aggregate of offensive and defensive ranking--the lower the aggregate, the higher the rank. Ties are broken by a) goal differential; and b) the Power Rank of their opponent.

The offensive ranking is based on the goals scored by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) greater number of shots made on target; and b) greater number of shots made.

The defensive ranking is based on the goals allowed by the teams throughout the matches. Ties are broken by a) least number of shots allowed on target; and b) least amount of shots allowed.

Phantasy Numbers:
(Players in italics are from eliminated teams.)

GOALS + ASSISTS
5+3
Túrin (Doriath)

5+0
Arien (Valinor)

4+0
Ancalagon (Angband)

3+4
Maeglin (Anfauglith)

3+3
Glorfindel (Eregion)
Elros (Westernesse)
Fëanor (Lothlórien)

3+2
Bombadil (The Forest)
Eönwë (Pelóri)
NogWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
Legolas (Lothlórien)

3+1
Gothmog (Anfauglith)
Smaug (Wilderland)
Eärendil (Eregion)
GwathWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)

3+0
Húrin (Doriath)
Scatha (Wilderland)

2+4
Sauron (Wilderland)

2+3
Míriel (Valinor)

2+2
Thuringwethil (Angband)
Ar-Pharazôn (Westernesse)

GOALKEEPER - RANKING

1. 95.8% (23/24) Elrond (Eregion)
2. 93.8% (15/16) Huan (Doriath)
3. 92.3% (12/13) ShastaWolf (Tol-in-Gaurhoth)
4. 88.9% (16/18) Tar-Atanamir (Westernesse)
5. 84.2% (16/19) Galadriel (Lothlórien)
6. 82.4% (14/17) Manwë (Pelóri)
7. 82.4% (14/17) Amandil (Tol Eressëa)
8. 79.0% (15/19) Ungoliant (Angband)
9. 77.3% (17/22) Caradhras (Misty Mts)
10. 73.9% (17/23) Ingwë (Valinor)
11. 72.4% (21/29) Ohtar (Barad-dûr)
12. 72.2% (13/18) Grimbeorn (Wilderland)
13. 65.4% (17/26) Eärnur (Minas Morgul)
14. 64.3% (18/28) Orodreth (Tirion)
15. 61.5% (16/26) Old Man Willow (The Forest)
16. 55.0% (11/20) Huor (Anfauglith)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doriath vs Valinor

• Doriath Off > Valinor Def
• Doriath Def = Valinor Off

Tirion had proven that Doriath's defence is not actually impregnable, and Valinor is a better team offensively than Tirion (averaging almost 3 goals and 16 shots (7 on target) vs almost 2 and 15 (7) for Tirion against non-Shire-Bree teams.) So they could score. The problem is how to stop Doriath's shooters from doing the same to them, or worse. The Valinorean defence conceded two early goals to Wilderland, necessitating a furious second-half rally. Allowing a much stronger Doriath team to do the same would dash their hopes of advancing to the semis.

Doriath 4:2 Valinor

Angband vs Eregion

• Angband Off = Eregion Def
• Angband Def = Eregion Off

We may have underestimated the resilience of Tol Eressëa's defence, limiting the Angband offensive machine to but a single goal. Amandil in particular has risen to the occasion, which makes us wonder how much Angband's front line could do against Elrond (a better GK than Amandil) and his defenders, who held a determined Bombadil and his inspired squad scoreless.

Eregion's 3rd goal against the Forest could be a message to their next opponent--yes, they are primarily a defensive team, but they can shoot, too. The problem is if they could do the same against Angband's defence, which has held up against all but most determined attackers (like the forwards of Hithlum and Anfauglith scoring 2 each against Ungoliant and Morgoth in an average of 13 shots (6 on target)). Eregion has managed just about the same number of shots and shots on targets against all their previous opponents, but none of them are of the same level defensively as Angband.

It may end up in a penalty shoot-out. Elrond and Ungoliant are not that far apart in skill, but Eregion has only Glorfindel and Eärendil as quality shooters. Angband has more.

Angband 2:2 Eregion (Angband wins in penalties 3-2.)

Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs Westernesse

• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Off = Westernesse Def
• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Def < Westernesse Off

This is Tol-in-Gaurhoth's first serious test, and what a test it is. The strength of the Westernesse offense has already been proven--scoring almost at will against quality defensive teams Númenor and Tol Eressëa, and bludgeoning the struggling Anfauglith back line (with defending champion GK Huor in front of the net) with three goals. ShastaWolf and the three defenders would be hard-pressed to stop them. And so the game would hinge on how well the Werewolves's offence would do against the Westron defence. Anfauglith has ended Tar-Atanamir's shutout streak, but they are a tested team that has fought against the defence of Morgoth's fortress and not come out lacking. The TiG strikers have had a cake walk so far. How would they fare against one of the best defences in the league?

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 1:3 Westernesse

Pelóri vs Lothlórien

• Pelóri Off = Lothlórien Def
• Pelóri Def < Lothlórien Off

Fëanor has woken up! And it bodes ill for their next opponents.

Lothlórien's defence faced its toughest test in their last match, and, despite yielding 2 goals and 17 shots (8 on target) against Tirion, they have done well enough. The Pelóri offence is not in the same level (averaging less than 2 goals in 13 shots (6 on target), which means the Golden Wood's back line would not be hard-pressed like they were in the Round of 16. (Although they would have to be alert against Eönwë and Varda's counter-attacks.)

Pelóri's defence has not been as impressive as it had been in the friendlies, but they have still been solid, winning the Group of Death by allowing only 1 goal and 11 shots (4 on target) per game, including against a high-octane Valinor offence. Most of Lothlórien's front line has not yet been tested against such a quality defensive team, but with Fëanor's resurgence and Galadriel listening to his wisdom, that might be enough to tip the scales.

Pelóri 1:2 Lothlórien

[the phantom]

(Eliminated players in italics)

31

• GK **Elrond (Eregion)

30

29

• FW **Turin (Doriath)

28

27

• MF *Glorfindel (Eregion)

26

25

24

• FW *Maeglin (Angfauglith)

23

• GK **Huan (Doriath)
• DF **Melian (Doriath)

22

• MF Legolas (Lothlorien)

21

• FW **Feanor (Lothlorien)
• FW Elros (Westernesse)

20

• GK *Galadriel (Lothlorien)
• GK *Tar Atanamir (Westernesse)
• GK ShastaWolf (TIG)
• DF *Beren (Doriath)
• DF *Celebrimbor (Eregion)
• FW *Sauron (Wilderland)

19

• DF Elwe (Doriath)
• FW Arien (Valinor)

18

• FW *Bombadil (Forest)
• FW Eonwe (Pelori)

17

• DF **Fingolfin (Angfauglith)
• DF Erestor (Eregion)
• DF Malbeth (Westernesse)
• MF *Hurin (Doriath)
• FW *NogWolf (TIG)
• FW *Miriel (Valinor)
• FW Curufin (Hithlum)

16

• GK *Manwe (Pelori)
• GK Caradhras (Misty Mts)
• GK Amandil (Tol Eressea)
• DF *Ulmo (Tol Eressea)
• DF *Namo (Pelori)
• DF Carcharoth (Doriath)
• DF Celeborn (Lothlorien)
• MF *Finrod (Tirion)
• MF Ar Adunakhor (Westernesse)
• MF Leod (Anduin)
• FW *Ancalagon (Angband)

[Nogrod]

Doriath
vs. Tirion 4-1
vs. Himring 3-0
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 4-0
vs. Minas Morgul 4-0

4-0-0
15-1
22,4% 37(67) – 16(48) 93,8%

Valinor
vs. Gondolin 3-1
vs. Beleriand 3-1
vs. Pelori 1-2
vs. Wilderland (OT) 3-2

3-0-1
10-6
15,6% 28(64) – 23(50) 73,9%

Looking at stats from any area of the play it looks like Doriath is about 25-30% better than Valinor, except in the overall shots taken and allowed where Doriath is only a marginal 5% better – and of course the goals allowed area where they are almost 85% on top of Valinor.

But what do these numbers tell us? Well, nothing and everything, as the statisticians tend to say. Let’s start with why the stats don’t matter here.

Which one would win the game if set against each other, Shire-Bree or Gondolin? Himring or Beleriand? Tirion or Pelori? Minas Morgul or Wilderland?

So if the stats give a general, say 30% advantage for Doriath, one could also say that the odds for the opponents Valinor has faced thus far to win the opponents Doriath has faced would be at least the same, if not higher. Thus making it more or less even.

To make a difference between the team one has then to go for some of the more independent stats. Two stats the AKM believes in more than others are the scoring percentage and the keeper’s saving percentage – and even if one can say Doriath played in a much easier group, both stats leaning stongly in Doriath’s favor can’t be dismissed.

So we’d say Doriath are the slight favourites to win, but not in a walk in the park –manner some see it, as they are really put to test here – one could say the first time in this year’s tournament. Anything could happen here, not the least because Valinor are Valar, and they have Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien…



Angband
vs. Hithlum 4-2
vs. TheDowner 3-0
vs. Anfaughlith 2-2
vs. Tol Eressea 1-0

3-1-0
10-4
18,2% 27(55) – 19(48) 79%

Eregion
vs. Gondor 2-0
vs. Barad Dûr 2-0
vs. Eregion 3-1
vs. The Forest 3-0

4-0-0
10-1
19,2% 27(52) – 24(52) 95,8%

The first glance at the teams would suggest the game would be played between two more or less even attackers, but that Eregion would have a way better defense, mainly because of heroic Elrond at their goal. But the AKM will not be satisfied with that kind of surface-analysis and is willing to go further with the game set-up here as well.

Let’s start with the big questinmark: is Angband’s defense that much weaker? To be honest it is not. Elrond is the leader of the goal-keeper stats and is a remarkably great keeper but the defense is not all about the goalie and also about the defenders, but is a lot about the opponent’s trigger-happiness – and the quality of the opposing offense overall too. And there we have clear difference.

Now Eregion has sailed to this stage without needing to face any offensive powerhouses, while Angband has played against both Hithlum (with Curufin and Celegorm & Hador) and Anfaughlith (with Maeglin, Gothmog and Fingolfin); two teams who live for attacking and have the quality to score. Looking at it from that POV makes Angband defense look a way better the stats show. Eregion has faced thus far Gondor, Eriador and Barad Dûr – and an anemic The Forest – and still they have allowed about as many shots as Angband has! And anyway: the three top teams on group C score together 26 goals – while the top three of group D scored only 16! So the challenge the defenses have met are far from equal.

On offence is tight as well. Tilion has only shown occasional sparks and Ancalagon and Thurihngwethil have carried the flag with some nice back up from Tevildo, and from Morgoth from defense. So even if their number one star has not been at his best yet, they have made a confident attack on a larger front. On Eregion’s side the things are more or less the same even if one could say they have no untapped hero-power that would have been sleeping thus far. Glorfindel has been his dashing self and Eärendil has been good beside him, while Elladan and Elrohir have been helping them out from behind.

So as the AKM sees it, it is a question of Eregion meeting their first offensive team with quality and at the same time the first team with solid defenses. So will Elrond stand as well against quality-opposition and will Glorfindel and Eärendil be able to score against a league tougher defense they have met thus far? If the answer to both these questions is no, then Angband will win easily. If it is yes, it will be a really tight match.



Tol-In-Gaurhoth
vs. The Forest 3-0
vs. Nargothrond 3-0
vs. Mordor 3-1
vs. Barad-Dur 3-0

4-0-0
12-1
18,2% 32(66) – 13(37) 92,3%

Westernesse
vs. Mithrim 4-0
vs. Tol Eressëa 2-0
vs. Númenor 2-0
vs. Angfauglith 3-2

4-0-0
11-2
19,3% 26(57) –18(38) 88,9%

Here again we find a statistician’s nightmare. Both teams look more or less equal on most areas: goals scored, goals allowed, the efficiency of shooting, total number of shots allowed, the goalkeepers saving percentage... But there are two stats that differ somewhat: the number of shots on goal and the number of shots on goal allowed. IN those two T-I-G seems to have something of an edge.
So the question then becomes: are those differences significant, and also, are the similarities actually telling of similarities? Time for the AKM to take a look at them.

First of all the number of shots allowed eg. the tightness of the defenses: after the group phase the numbers were basically even. After that Westernesse played Anfaughlith where as T-I-G played Barad Dûr. The ensuing difference is wiped away immediately. It’s also good to notice that Tar Atanamir’s saving percentage was 100% before meeting Anfaughlith – a kind of team T-I-G has yet to meet.

The number of shots and shots on goal on the other hand show a steady advance for the T-I-G. They have consistently shot a bit more. But a look at the group-stats makes an interesting reading here as well. Of the other teams in their groups only Mithrim from group F gave in as many shots as the three other teams from group E did. And to just make it more particular: Tol Eressëa is one of the tightest defending teams of the whole tournament, and Númenor were tough defenders as well – which can’t be said of Nargothrond, Mordor or The Forest at all. So suddenly the starts start to look a bit different as it looks only quite natural Westernesse hasn’t shot that much.

So all in all, even if the numbers say T-I-G has something like a slight advance we tend to think the tournament of the werewolves is over this time and predict Westernesse will win. It will be a tough game, but still. The final factor in here is that T-I-G hasn’t faced any real tough teams thus far while Westernesse has – and still the stats look pretty much equal.



Pelori
vs. Beleriand 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-1
vs. Valinor 2-1
vs Misty Mts. 2-0

3-1-0
7-3
13,5% 23(52) – 17(44) 82,4%

Lothlórien
vs. Minas Morgul 2-1
vs. Minas Tirith 3-0
vs. Dunharrow 2-0
vs. Tirion 3-2

4-0-0
10-3
18,5% 30(54) – 19(49) 84,2%

This is one of the games one would not like to predict on. It always seems from the stats that Manwë’s teams are not that good and still, more often than not, they prevail in the end. Some say this will be a duel between Manwë and Fëanor. It might be that. But it is also a fight of Galadriel against Varda and Eönwë.

When meeting some real offensive talent against Tirion, Galadriel gave away two goals immediately. That doesn’t predict good on their side. Then again Pelori hasn’t played against the best goalies either.

On the other hand, both teams have met only one strongly attacking team. The results: Pelori beat Valinor 2-1 while Lothlórien beat Tirion 3-2. And as only a fool would say Tirion would have any chances beating Valinor (Doriath beat Tirion 4-1!), it looks like Pelori’s defences are stronger after all.

The attack then? Lothlórien has been scoring confidently 2 or 3 goals in every game. Legolas has been very good and Fëanor has flashed his talents a few times – but only flashed them. In previous years it was always Túrin and Fëanor going neck by neck leading the scoreboard, but this year Fëanor has given no real challenge to the son of Húrin. Will he set alight in this game – and is it enough facing the defense by Manwë and Mandos? But clearly he is not what he used to be as one can’t blame the toughness of the opposition this time around.

Honestly speaking, Pelori has met with tougher defenses than Lothlórien has and thus the difference in goals made and shots on goal that seem to favour Lothlórien diminish a lot in signifigance.

It would be so compelling to say it is a duel between Manwë and Fëanor and leave it at that. But that of course is not the way to do it. So the AKM hold Pelori slight favourites to the game, but if it comes to a shoot-out we would possibly predict a different outcome…

[the phantom]

The Game Within The Game
The Phantom, "The Downer" Sporting News

We all know what is going on in the Arda Cup, so I won't waste any time writing about that. It's only the biggest sporting event in Middle Earth! It's receiving plenty of coverage from fine journalists. What I want to talk about is a game within the game that has been going on here on the Downs. I'm talking about the Arda Cup Phantasy Competition.

If you haven't checked the standings lately, guess who's back on top? None other than the winner from three years ago- Gwathagor. He has always sworn that he would win another title, and here he is threatening once again. If you'll recall he was also sitting in first place at this stage last year, but couldn't hold off the late charge of Boromir, and ended up in a jumble with Nog, Skip, and Nerwen in the final standings.

But this year he has a bit more of a cushion and will be more difficult to catch without help from pre-tournament predictions. Yes, don't forget those! They are worth a potential fifty points, so the championship is still wide open!

The ever competitive Nog is sitting in second place currently. He's been a hard-luck case in years past, always in the hunt but never on top at the end. Will luck be with him this year?

Next is Boro, who is looking to become the first ever repeat winner, and if anyone can mount a furious prediction-fueled comeback we know it's him.

Just behind him is Nilp and Eomer, who have been charging hard the past couple rounds. Watch out for them- they're on a roll.

A couple points down from there is the ever dangerous Skip, who is another one that has a reputation for strong finishes.

The next group down will have a bit more trouble coming back (they need pre-tournament predictions to hit for them), but they're all bunched tightly and there is pride at stake and no doubt they wish to at least beat those around them- Nerwen, Morm, Kuru, Shasta, and Galadriel. Bringing up the rear is Sally and Inzil, who are anxious to put on a spurt and send some of the group above them to the bottom of the standings. They are also keen to break the 200 point mark, as that would put them solidly ahead of last year's rear group and give them confidence for a change in luck next season.

And as a special treat, here is a brief statement from each of this year's participants.

Boro (They Have a Cave Troll): Guess who's within striking distance people? Ha ha- the comeback king, me! That trophy is going to stay in my living room this year.
Eomer (Bletherin’ Blellums): I had the most group prediction points, and you watch- I'll gain the most pre-tourney prediction points too. And combined with this nice run I'm having... This thing is mine.
Galadriel (Unnamed Horror): This is my first ever try at this and I'm probably going to finish in the top half. I'm a natural, aren't I? After I get some experience the rest of you won't stand a chance.
Gwath (The Lynch Mob): Guess who's sitting on top again? It's- no! Not Boro, it's- No! Not Skip or Nog either. I was implying that- NO! Not Saucepan Man! It's ME!! GWATH is on top! You need to give me my proper respect.
Inzil (Inzil’s Ignobles): You mean this isn't like golf? Oh dear... I've got some ground to make up then. No matter- with a late charge I will relegate someone else to the bottom. Simple as that.
Kuru (Kuru's Scrubs): I'm just not cut out for a long competition like this. I'm more of a natural sprinter.
Morm (Wrath of the Monkey): Six people ahead of me in the standings, six people behind. *sigh* Always mediocre.... Grrr! But I will change my fortunes with a strong finish!
Nerwen (Notorious Nerwenites): I seem to be a bit off my game this year. But it's not completely out of reach. I'll give it my best, and at the least I'll beat that blasted Shasta.
Nilp (The Numbering Horde): Oh yeah! On a hot streak! Just gotta keep it burning and I'll shoot past Boro this round, Nog in the next, and pass Gwath on the final turn. Boo-yah!
Nog (Noggportunistics): Always a bridesmaid never a bride, right? But sooner or later my superior strategies will pay off, I'm certain.
Sally (The Cupkicks): Without Wilwa here who am I supposed to be competing with? Meh- at least I have the coolest name.
Shasta (Wolf Pack): Well curses! That last round did not go as planned. But hey, everyone has one bad round. From here on out I'll be good. And at the least I'm going to beat my nemesis, Nerwen.
Skip (The Klong Toey Soi Dogs): Those guys in front of me are looking at each other and playing accordingly. Perfect... Just forget about old Skip here. Pay no attention. I'll just close the gap nice and innocent like, and then BANG! They won't see it coming.