Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doriath vs Valinor

• Doriath Off > Valinor Def
• Doriath Def = Valinor Off

Tirion had proven that Doriath's defence is not actually impregnable, and Valinor is a better team offensively than Tirion (averaging almost 3 goals and 16 shots (7 on target) vs almost 2 and 15 (7) for Tirion against non-Shire-Bree teams.) So they could score. The problem is how to stop Doriath's shooters from doing the same to them, or worse. The Valinorean defence conceded two early goals to Wilderland, necessitating a furious second-half rally. Allowing a much stronger Doriath team to do the same would dash their hopes of advancing to the semis.

Doriath 4:2 Valinor

Angband vs Eregion

• Angband Off = Eregion Def
• Angband Def = Eregion Off

We may have underestimated the resilience of Tol Eressëa's defence, limiting the Angband offensive machine to but a single goal. Amandil in particular has risen to the occasion, which makes us wonder how much Angband's front line could do against Elrond (a better GK than Amandil) and his defenders, who held a determined Bombadil and his inspired squad scoreless.

Eregion's 3rd goal against the Forest could be a message to their next opponent--yes, they are primarily a defensive team, but they can shoot, too. The problem is if they could do the same against Angband's defence, which has held up against all but most determined attackers (like the forwards of Hithlum and Anfauglith scoring 2 each against Ungoliant and Morgoth in an average of 13 shots (6 on target)). Eregion has managed just about the same number of shots and shots on targets against all their previous opponents, but none of them are of the same level defensively as Angband.

It may end up in a penalty shoot-out. Elrond and Ungoliant are not that far apart in skill, but Eregion has only Glorfindel and Eärendil as quality shooters. Angband has more.

Angband 2:2 Eregion (Angband wins in penalties 3-2.)

Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs Westernesse

• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Off = Westernesse Def
• Tol-in-Gaurhoth Def < Westernesse Off

This is Tol-in-Gaurhoth's first serious test, and what a test it is. The strength of the Westernesse offense has already been proven--scoring almost at will against quality defensive teams Númenor and Tol Eressëa, and bludgeoning the struggling Anfauglith back line (with defending champion GK Huor in front of the net) with three goals. ShastaWolf and the three defenders would be hard-pressed to stop them. And so the game would hinge on how well the Werewolves's offence would do against the Westron defence. Anfauglith has ended Tar-Atanamir's shutout streak, but they are a tested team that has fought against the defence of Morgoth's fortress and not come out lacking. The TiG strikers have had a cake walk so far. How would they fare against one of the best defences in the league?

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 1:3 Westernesse

Pelóri vs Lothlórien

• Pelóri Off = Lothlórien Def
• Pelóri Def < Lothlórien Off

Fëanor has woken up! And it bodes ill for their next opponents.

Lothlórien's defence faced its toughest test in their last match, and, despite yielding 2 goals and 17 shots (8 on target) against Tirion, they have done well enough. The Pelóri offence is not in the same level (averaging less than 2 goals in 13 shots (6 on target), which means the Golden Wood's back line would not be hard-pressed like they were in the Round of 16. (Although they would have to be alert against Eönwë and Varda's counter-attacks.)

Pelóri's defence has not been as impressive as it had been in the friendlies, but they have still been solid, winning the Group of Death by allowing only 1 goal and 11 shots (4 on target) per game, including against a high-octane Valinor offence. Most of Lothlórien's front line has not yet been tested against such a quality defensive team, but with Fëanor's resurgence and Galadriel listening to his wisdom, that might be enough to tip the scales.

Pelóri 1:2 Lothlórien