Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nogrod]

Doriath
vs. Tirion 4-1
vs. Himring 3-0
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 4-0
vs. Minas Morgul 4-0
vs. Valinor 3-1

Doriath 5-0-0 18-2 21,2% 45(85) – 21(65) 90,5%

Angband
vs. Hithlum 4-2
vs. TheDowner 3-0
vs. Anfaughlith 2-2
vs. Tol Eressea 1-0
vs. Eregion 1-0

Angband 4-1-0 11-4 15,3% 34(72) – 22(61) 81,8%



Doriath vs. Angband

Doriath seems to be the sovereign team sailing for the gold this year. Every stat tells one so. So are there any reasons to doubt that?

One could look at the opponents they have faced. The tremendous number of goals Doriath has made can be seen not only as a result of their flashing forwards (which they do indeed have), but also as a consequence of them meeting only badly defending teams. Their last game against Valinor is a case in point: it was cool defending they kept the Valinor attacks at bay but the Valinor defences have not been the tightest ones either. But Angband will really put Doriath attack into the test. Looking at the teams they have faced it easy to say, for the first time. This time scoring three or four goals will not be like a walk in the park to them as Angband will be forcing them to really perform.

But how does it work the other way around then? Both offensive powerhouses Hithlum and Anfaughlith managed to score twice into Angband goal. Doriath is no lesser attacker than the two, so Doriath scores at least two goals?

But then again, looking at the opponents Angband has met we find both “crazy attack” teams (Hithlum, Downer, Anfaughlith) and “hedgehog-defense” teams (Tol Eressëa, Eregion), so actually relating their scoring and goals allowed becomes an entangled issue. Would Doriath had scored more against Tol Eressëa or Eregion? Would Anfaughlith or Hithlum have scored more against Doriath? How many goals Angband would have made against the opponents Doriath has faced?

Without needing to meet the two most qualified defending teams of the tournament Angband’s stats on scoring would be different indeed – and without needing to meet the two of the top offensive teams their stats on defense would be different as well.

So Doriath is not having an easy afternoon ahead of them. On the contrary: Morgoth will whip his team into their best game thus far and it most probably ends in a 2-2 draw. What happens then, that’s anybody’s guess…


~*~


Tol-In-Gaurhoth
vs. The Forest 3-0
vs. Nargothrond 3-0
vs. Mordor 3-1
vs. Barad-Dur 3-0
vs. Westernesse 2-1

T-I-G 5-0-0 14-2 16,5% 40(85) – 17(51) 88,2%

Pelori
vs. Beleriand 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-1
vs. Valinor 2-1
vs Misty Mts. 2-0
vs. Lothlórien 2-1

Pelori 4-1-0 9-4 13,4% 29(67) – 21(54) 81%


Tol-In-Gaurhoth vs. Pelori

Here we have the familiar problem: the one team is a clear favourite due to the stats but then there are objections to be made: the fact that the other team is a Valinor team led by Manwë is not the smallest of those…

To be kind of rude, one could say that the T-I-G has only faced one really tough opponent (they beat Westernesse 2-1) whereas Pelori has met two (they beat both Valinor and Lothlórien 2-1). Of the other teams the two have met, it is quite clear Pelori has played the tougher teams than the T-I-G.

So the difference in the stats should be, if not totally ignored, put in brackets. T-I-G has scored more but against weaker opponents; they have admitted less goals but have only faced one attacking team with quality. Pelori in turn has scored less but against some really tough defenses and they have admitted a few more goals – against some attacking ingenuity.

And the fact that Manwë’s team always prevails with one goal (well against Misty Mts- with 2-0) makes one wonder. Somehow the stats just don’t seem to affect Manwë-driven teams.
But even these “outside the stats” speculations have their limits. Last year they scandalously lost to Norbury in the quarters and this year they started with a draw with the Beleriand as the opponent scored at the last minutes to make it even.

T-I-G will score one – and with luck two. Pelori will score one -and with luck two. What happens thereafter is anybody’s guess.