WW XC: Lord of the Rings 2: The Quest For More Money

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Wow. Just, wow. I'm speechless.

Is this the game of the reveals? Three reveals by Day 3 - and at least one fake?

Seeromer has a case against Seerwen, and she against him. One of them is a wolf. I won't exclude the possibility that both faked. Eomer's claims are more bold, and easier to prove. Nerwen complicates things. She revealed three innocents. How do we know she's not a wolf calling random innocents innocent? And picking Zil is just too convenient. On the other hand, this might be simpy unlucky and nothing wolvish.

Trust Eomer means trust Bom and not trust Nerwen&Shasta. Trust Nerwen means trust Eruhen&Boro. While I can kinda trust (as much as one can trust in WW) the people they call innocent, I don't know about our Seers.

To know for sure, we could lynch one of them. But that would mean a 50-50 chance against the real Seer: too big of a risk IMO. Lynch Shasta, as he's the only "?known wolf?" that didn't reveal yet? If Eomer is not really the Seer, this would still backfire on him...

I'm in agreement here. A lot has been going on. I like the idea of lynching Shasta toDay. This way we will know who the real Seer is. At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by autume98

At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

I'm not leaning anywhere. I feel like they are playing tug-of-war with me instead of the rope.

Why me? Why did I even join this game? I'm just an ignorant hobbit, and my brain is starting to steam!

[Eruhen]

Question for Lottie about the rules:

Does the Hunter show as gifted or ordo for the Seer? edit: I read through the Rules thread, and it seems a little vague.

kthxbai

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eruhen

Boro, Bom, Shasta, you around? Your heads are on the line here, too, and it'd be nice to hear from you.

What did I miss...how's my head on the line here? Granted, I wouldn't be the most terrible choice, if you want my head today, Shasta will be coming with me. Although, I'd prefer just to take the direct route of lynching Shasta.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'm in agreement here. A lot has been going on. I like the idea of lynching Shasta toDay. This way we will know who the real Seer is. At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

Yes, especially since he's departed on to a grand trip overseas. Although this would mean another day of a Nerwen/Eomer seer battle most likely. Unless Nerwen would like to get noble as I can always hunt her during the night. I'll pick you up at 9, shall we call it a date?

I may be kicking myself as Nerwen says, because it's not like I've been terribly and horrible wrong about seer reveals before. But having been a seer before (seems like Eomer's taken from my book ), Eomer's rationale makes sense and it looks like the wolves have spent the night concocting a story to sow doubt.

I have to admit, it's actually a pretty convincing story by Nerwen, not at all what I was expecting, but a fraudulant story nonetheless.

To G55, don't sweat it, at this point one of them is obviously lying. All you can do is choose who's more believable, if you're wrong, you're wrong. No big deal. Kick yourself a few times and move on, my history is full of being horribly wrong and erratic (ergo look at my Day 1, and that's not even the worst of it.) There will always be the next day to correct whatever we manage to screw up.

Actually, after how Day 1 started, I'm impressed how well we've performed, when it's all said and done. Usually we lynch the Seer on Day 1 more than any other role it seems. And, well it's Day 3 and all the gifteds are still alive.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

To G55, don't sweat it, at this point one of them is obviously lying.

Or both, in which case we're screwed either way.

All you can do is choose who's more believable, if you're wrong, you're wrong. No big deal. Kick yourself a few times and move on, my history is full of being horribly wrong and erratic (ergo look at my Day 1, and that's not even the worst of it.)

Good advice. But, like I've said before and Eonwe quite recently, I prefer a debatable ordowolf to a debatable seerwolf.

There will always be the next day to correct whatever we manage to screw up.

We have 11 people. Three are wolves. Three innocents to equal that number. That leaves us with 5 innocents to die before we lose. It means - toDay, toNight, toMorrow, toMorrowNight, and the Day after. It would be great if there will be another Ranger save, but it cannot be relied on. So technically we have 3 Days to get a wolf. And we can get one - or two - in 2 Days.

If we take the worse case scenario, where we lynch innocent Shasta and there is a kill at Night, then we are left with 6 innocents and 3 wolves. Lynch Eomerwolf and a kill at Night again. That makes it 5 innocents and 2 wolves, which means 3 innocents (one of which is a Night kill) to lose before we lose, or two Days to get another wolf.

Pretty risky. But is there a better way? Certainly, if Eomer is the Seer, life becomes much easier, as we can get two wolves in two consecutive Days, and we'll have some room to breathe. But false hope often proves more fatal than false suspicion...

Edit: xed with Boro, Nerwen, and Bom