WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Galadriel55]

This time is actually worth dying so early and staying up really late... I haven't laughed this much about WW for... well, since the Revels of the Reveals in Lottie's game.

Good luck with my riddle for whoever wants to solve it, and good luck to the whole village. I hope I didn't make it too messy for you.

[Galadriel55]

And I actually missed my 3000th post somewhere in this madness....

[Kitanna]

I've voiced other concerns about Nerwen. And she hasn't sad anything today to lessen those concerns.

First here's this last minute post from Day 2.

G55, if you're not just a wolf messing with our heads, you've got nothing to gloat about– you did this to yourself. And no, I have no idea what you're talking about.

Who's gloating here? I suspected G55 heavily, but I didn't rub her trip to the gallows in her face either.

"I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Here she puts Boro forward. I laid out my theories on this in my post about Legate. I see no reason to revisit it again so soon.

Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

She's made a few lamenting comments. Including one about us not lynching the Ranger today. This seemingly harmless comment about innocence seems forced. Her "kill-list" was the subject of a few posts, it didn't dominate the day like Bom/Pitch's joke argument.

She had some back and forth with Greenie. "Don't put too much stock in the 'won't vote' list" etc.

Okay, I see what you mean now. However, that second list is prefaced by, "Based on both yesterDay's malarkey and reactions to my modfire plan toDay...." that is, I should say, "...not on my dreams..."

I think at least one of Sally's dreams was on her list and I think that's safe to assume. I'm not sure why Nerwen isn't at least considering the list as an angle. She seems deadset against wanting to use it as a clue. It's not the best idea to base everything around it, but given who is on it and what Sally said about them I think something can be gleaned.

She argues against Legate's Pitch theory. A sensible post without any warning bells for me.

Quite a distortion, there, Legate. I didn't "push it", I put it forward as a logical inference. Why are you "pushing" that she dreamed Pitch– which really doesn't make sense?

Legate, the point is not who is right– unfortunately, I'm not sure we *can* come to a definite conclusion– it's that, well, we've lost the Seer, the best we can do is try to glean what we can from her comments while alive. As is usual. Why try to frighten people off a particular line of reasoning? I mean, it's one thing to say, "I don't agree with you because of such-and-such", quite another to– well, honestly, you're pretty close to threatening me there. A bit excessive, surely?

This next post is what really worries me. Legate hadn't said anything so I think this could be something she thought of after posting her last comment. However, this seemed like a big overreaction after she seemed to shrug off Legate's "threat" in the previous post.

Actually, Legate has been making a habit of aggressively steering the discussion away from certain topics. He did it on Day One, with his "warning vote" on TEW, and on Day Two by stepping in to end the theorising over why TEW had been killed. Not that I can't see the logic of that– after a certain point, such talk can become a waste of time and a distraction, or even a nice smokescreen for the evil side. Still, this is becoming a pattern. I don't know what it means, though– I could hardly call it a sign of lupinity, since the Legwolf I remember is a *lot* smoother and sneakier.

Again, no response from Legate, just continued attack on him. She's jumping all over him, but at the end she recants and says he's not being smooth enough to be of the lupine persuasion.

Regarding Kath: the argument in favour of her being the Night One dream is obvious. However, Sally didn't really react that much when there was talk of voting Kath on Day One, which is bugging me a bit. It may be simply that it never seemed that Kath was in real danger.

I think Kath may well have been the Night 1 dream so this could be my own prejudice talking, but Nerwen seems to want to use sally's lukewarm defense as a reason why Kath couldn't be the dream. Nerwen has stated she sees merit in the belief Kath was the dream, but is bugged by Sally's reaction. On Day 1 how much would Sally really want to reveal about what she knew? If Kath was the dream I don't see Sally jumping over and declaring Kath innocent outright.

On the other, he's certainly not acting anything like he normally does as a wolf. Thoughts?

Again she points fingers at Legate, but backs off within the next sentence.

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

She continues to fight the Pitch-dream theory.

Like I said earlier in post 151 Sally says she suspects Nerwen more than G55. I think she wanted to dream of Nerwen. It seems a stretch that the wolves killed Sally because they saw this as a seer hint, but maybe they didn't like her sniffing around their packmate.

Right now Legate and Nerwen are highest on my list.

[Boromir88]

Day 1

Gave a pretty cautious, and luke-warm Inzil impression on Day 1. Not involved aside from doing a few IC posts about the guide (and suspecting Pitch because Pitch said Inzil was harping on the guide).

This is perhaps Inzil's most substantial post of Day 1.

Kath's vote seems a bit odd, true, but I can posit an innocent reason behind it, as well as the obvious evil throwaway potential.

The way Pitch latched onto G55 as soon as she appeared is a bit jarring. Would an evil Pitch be so obvious, though?

And Legate Voting TEW as a "warning vote". I get his point about TEW, but that seems like a rather extreme "warning".

Meh. I apologize for being useless toDay. If I'm around, I'll do my best to make it up Day 2.

There was the accusation of me "harping' about the guide being partly responsible for our predicament (which I mentioned in only two halfhearted IC posts). Then his interactions with Bom, followed by the sudden switching of targets to G55.

He admits to feeling useless for the day, but still seemed detached, or as if he didn't care where the lynch went. Not sure if I can explain it well...but just the "Let me give a few names, say some wishy-washy suspicions, and vote. And again, to point out, at this time he made the Pitch vote, thinking that it would be the 1st vote for Pitch.

Day 2

Now, back from Day 1, Inzil had said he'd be better. Fairy nuff not going to fault someone for being busy and rushed. Also, TEW did vote for Inzil (which reminds me Legate argued for a possible frame job against Inzil).

Originally Posted by #102

First off, sorry about that, Pitch. He was the only one I really had anything on, even though, as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity. The two votes for him coming so hot on the heels of mine was rather freaky.

Not much time for much of toDay, sadly. I'll get on when I can, though.

I believe this was the main reason for Kath voting Inzil, yesterday, yes? The apology does raise a wolf flag. Not really the "Sorry Pitch" part, but he seems to be trying really hard to convince us he didn't mean it "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity." Then deflects away from his vote, by reminding about the two votes that quickly followed.

I think this more likely than a desire for a trailless kill, as there would seem to have been more choices who left a lot less to be analyzed than TEW.

His response to Nerwen, who had suggested TEW was killed as a possible frame job and TEW's general behavior seemed possibly gifted. Not sure if this tells us anything about Inzil, but Legate, are you sure you still want to call me the aggreeable one?

Originally Posted by #117

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Responding to Legate, and huh agreeing with Legate, that the Pitch votes should be the focus and not why TEW was killed. And the inclusion of "(and yes, that includes mine)" looks out of place. Why make sure we remember Inzil is including his own vote?

His next couple posts are a few comments on the mod-fire rule and game mechanics. Nothing that would seem to tell us anything about him

But in #157, led me to wanting to have a closer look at Inzil yesterday:

I wouldn't say I "backtracked", though I did feel bad for voting him. It seems I always end up suspecting him and he's never guilty.

That was his reply to Kath, who said Inzil apologized for his Pitch vote. He disagrees, but really what would you call "as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity," then?

I think Nerwen looks more shiny than G55 at the moment. Also feeling rather good about Kit.

Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh.

Legate seems to be his genuine innocent self.

Greenie seems sharp somehow. Not really sure what I mean by that, but she makes sense and gives me pause at the same time.

Some more general comments and feelings about people. All pretty non-commital, feels good about some. I have no idea what the "Boro is up to something. Good? Evil? Meh." statement was supposed to mean.

#164, tells Legate, he likes what he sees from Laeko, but not enough to declare innocent. And says he'd be in favor of Bom if voting Bom was possible, but the day would look like it was coming down to Nerwen and G55.

#169, he decides he could vote for G55 "based on what Nerwen says" (if that doesn't look like a set up statement, then I don't look smashing in a Tux), but also...

...as well as the fact that she was involved in the Pitch-wagon yesterDay (along with, coincidentally, I'm sure, Bom ). It's hard for me to believe no wolves were involved with that.

Nerwen points out that Inzil was also involved in the Pitch-wagon and one of his replying comments just seemed unnecessary:

And to be accurate, I started the Pitch-wagon.

I said this wouldn't be something I would be very proud of, and Inzil clarified, he wasn't proud, but stating fact. Still, the statement looks unnecessary, but it was prompted by Nerwen reminding Inzil was also in the Pitch-voters. I don't think I explained it clearly yesterday, and probably can't clarify much better today. But, why feel the need to say this unless, you Inzil, were getting nervous Nerwen was suspecting you for being in the Pitch voters. Yet, still trying to appear unbiased because you were the one who "started" it.

From Day 2 then, continued non-commital towards nearly everyone. Except on Day 1 he picked Pitch (then apologized for it next day) and Day 2, he seemed mostly focused on Bom until realizing Bom would be a throw away vote. And Bom conveniently wasn't there to challenge or answer Inzil suspecting him.

I stand by what I said yesterday, that Inzil is certainly better and more involved than what he's been showing. And in some ways he's looked nervous when Nerwen pointed out he was in the Pitch-wagon, when Kath said he back-tracked on his Pitch vote. And really Legate, you say my posts are aggreeable?

Haven't thoroughly read his post on Kitanna today, will go do that after supper.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But you understand that I put forward that theory *before* Greenie pointed out the anomaly of Boro's being left off the list the second Day?

That as well might be, but the point is that you still keep holding to it even up to now. No considering of the anomaly still, then?

And okay, I really don't want to keep us picking in this any more, but in order to respond:

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

Which ones? In what you replied to, I was no longer talking about Pitch. I had said already by then that it is possible, not a 100% truth (and I never said that, I mean, who would), and from almost the beginning, I was saying that it is not as much ("that re: thing not being so much, BUT it being a possibility"), what I said later was only that I still think it more probable than your Boro theory. And that's what I was talking about, not about Pitch: I was saying that the Boro theory makes no sense, in my book. I mean, yes, it was not any "hello, these people are innocent:" list, but it was still a Seer's list, almost the only thing she had said ever about people in some ordered way, it seems obvious to me she had not dreamt a wolf at any point, and if I was a Seer, I definitely would not omit the possibility to list my known innocents on the lists of people I trust. Why should I not? What would I lose by that? So unless Sally acted completely illogically here (which is possible, but I would rather hope not), then Boro is not an option for the dreamed innocent for me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Really? You keep saying I'm being Mr. Agreeable, but seriously, are you even reading my posts? What about them is so "agreeable?" The fact that I'm not being a big enough pain, jumping around like a madman demanding everyone listen to me? Sorry to disappoint you, but I see no point in going off half-cocked, all but begging to be lynched.

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

Okay, maybe this jump is genuine, after I have read it twice. But yes, you are being Mr. Agreeable, that is a fact. You've been rather un-conflict-y until very recently, you have been responding to posts (also in the earlier days a few times) which I would have expected you to retaliate to with rather random wave of your hand, if ever. Anyway however, that is not a crime. I confess that probably my judgement of you was also partially clouded by considering Nerwen's peculiar pedantry on you being innocent really suspicious in the sense that you two could be packmates. But all right, what then?

If Boro looks better now when I look back, that also means that if he is innocent, surely Nerwen won't be "defending" him if she was a Wolf. If I am willing to admit that Nerwen's thinking was just that of a differently thinking innocent, then of course there is a lot more to ponder.

I could of course make a complete 180° and turn to what has been troubling me since the start (or since sometime yesterDay anyway), but which I kept shrugging of as complete paranoia: the thinking that Kath and/or Greenie and somebody else (? Kit ?). I mean: if Nerwen is not a Wolf, then I could expect that the Wolves are fueling the Nerwenwaggon or messing around with the general public opinions and feelings, and in that case, it could possibly be Greenie (voting Nerwen), or again Kath, when she debates with herself about the issues with me and Nerwen and everyone, that could be interpreted also in the way of somehow adding small pieces of fuel to the general fires. Kit could be the same with her Nerwelysis (which, however, in some ways seems bringing rather good points and notices, it is only at some points sort of "dragging Nerwen down" along, but then again, analysis is analysis... if there is something negative-looking, you have to mention it). Of course, one would have hard time thinking that these two are packmates, with Kath voting Greenie. In any case, Kath still seems rather reasonable in her actions and with the pondering in her latter lists, and it would be rather a bit of paranoia that would bring me to consider her. But then again, at this stage of the game, everything is a paranoia.

At least for me, so yes, if you wish, call it a confused innocent. And especially toDay has been somewhat distracting for me.

Still, if I look at it, there are still most things which are unsettling about Nerwen. The Boro thing is not one of those I would vote her for, though: at least not unless I have a proof that Boro is her packmate. It is more like a puzzling thing. Although of course if one is a Wolf, it often happens that if your opinion appears faulty, it is better to still hold to it so that you don't lose credit - not sure if Nerwen especially would operate on this basis, though. Does not really strike me as that kind of player. Or maybe yes? But the way she reacted to some stuff is still unsettling, even if I put this away. And now what I found also strange was the last list about Greenie she posted, as it seems totally "what the Angband is that?" I mean, are you saying that Greenie's post looks more like a Seer list than Sally's and therefore Greenie should've been killed, and since she was not, it proves she was a Wolf? Weird.

And I am once again completely missing Azura and Laeko - who haven't been very talkative (though as I recall Laeko posted yesterday quite innocentishly).

Probably x-ed with a lot... and sorry for the novels. Also should vote soon-ish, preferrably.

EDIT: x-ed with some Boro

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Basically: I either must say that we have a village full of Werewolves, or that there is none. Depending what threshold I set on my "Wolf-detector". If I set it too low and ignore everything with saying "yes, this was probably meant well, it only sounds weird", I end up with no WWs at all. If I set it too high, I can just as well end up with suspecting everyone. It certainly should not work that way.

Where the detector "beeps" the first now is probably Nerwen. However there are many "but"s, still it probably is the closest to what I would call "suspicious" right now. The biggest "but" probably is: But why would she act like she does if she was a Wolf? I mean - it is not very "professional", to get jumpy, to make seemingly illogical claims about who was or was not dreamt of... maybe one could think about inventing fake suspicions of people based on stuff like "because she is still alive and it seems to me that she looked like a Seer, she must be evil", but that's a bit weird too, also, it might have been possibly retaliatory - in the "good" sense - an innocent replying in affectu (it can influence you even if you don't actually realise that). You can explain everything positively or negatively, the question is where you draw the line.

One could also ask: so what are the Wolves like now? Are they calm and collected (Kath? Greenie?), or are they somehow frustrated and jumpy - now they shouldn't be, should they, they are in rather good spot now - unless they are being suspected (Nerwen? Boro?). By the way, if there is no Wolf among these four, I call upon the powers of the Valar so that you choose to lynch me instead so that I cannot do any more harm. But on a more serious note, I really need to make a decision and Nerwen probably looks the lowest in the "beep" field, like I said. Unless... unless it happens to be the very same thing like the last two Days - in other words, just another bandwagon. Hm, I think I know what I will do now: I need to take a look at the two Days' voting lists again. Now with considering all the different possibilities, maybe there is something I forgot.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Boro! Now if you are innocent, what kind of a behavior is that? Suddenly you totally jumped out at me after I said that you are too agreeable. What should I think now, that you did so because I warned you that you are acting too agreeable?

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

Granted, I haven't been as bull-headed as I can be, but that side tends to come out when things really become desperate. But that normally leads to greater frustration and just getting the "ahh screw it/hopeless" attitude.

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm more thinking just different meanings. By agreeable I assume you meant I was mimicking what people were saying, which to me, is flat out untrue. Sounds like though you say I'm coming off as "Mr. Nice Guy" though? Trying to sweet talk people with calmness.

The second is what I mean, and I said it also back then, I think I used words like "honey-tongued" or something. So yes, when I say "Mr. Agreeable", I mean by that "not responding aggressively, or even not questioning people so much in general, but acting more like 'yes, my friend, you have a good point'".

You will probably say this makes me agreeable, but I do admit to not giving any substantial look at Nerwen. That mostly comes from a history of being unable to figure her out and then flat out fear. My general impression, based on yesterday, is that G55 was acting like a loon and I can't find suspicion against Nerwen for that carnival show. G55 did a good job making people think she was a wolf. And also, because of G55's eratic behavior, it put Nerwen in a defensive position, which has carried over to the suspicion today.

The last sentence is true and something worth thinking about. However, the same way indeed you should not probably just go over Nerwen's posts - or others' suspicions against her, more like - with the attitude "nah, this is all just born out of yesterDay, I know she is being wronged here, I don't even need to consider whether it does not have any real basis" (I'm saying that because I know from experience it's easy to do that). But yes, well, balance of opinions needs to be maintained.

Now I have looked at the voting lists, I will maybe think about them still for a while just in case I don't get some brilliant idea... while doing that, I have also actually reread large parts of the thread. Looking at it, I am now feeling more on the "I think nobody is a Wolf" side - or in fact, I started thinking how, erm, hilarious it would be if the Wolves were Laeko and Azura (and somebody who keeps just hiding well, but then again, not sure if there is anybody exactly like that right now). But I guess (I hope) nobody (meaning: no Wolf pack) could be that lucky (to end up in such a constellation). Aside from that, I would be inclined to think Sally's death was carefully planned, and somehow it seems difficult to imagine the coordination with group of the "hiding" kind.

If I wanted to look at the "worst" votes overall I think it could be for example Kit's, or at least the yesterDay's one, in the start, I don't quite like it, as the first (the other one was this triple-cross, so who knows what to make of it). There are some people of whom there are some missing votes (aside from Laeko and Azura, there's Greenie who already voted toDay but did not vote on Day 1, however with explanation), which makes them more difficult to analyse.

Last of all, once again re-read some quotes of Nerwen, and even now with bearing what Boro said in mind, some of those still look a bit Wolvish, like (to Gal):

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And should you happen to turn out innocent– which is seeming less and less likely– my excuse would of course be that I thought you were probably a wolf, from your conduct. Which I do.

There are these "pre-emptive" words. Once again one could start asking if a Wolf would so "bluntly" post something like that. But then again, why would an innocent say that, too?

I think I might still take a look at Inzil - there is still the possibility of him being "the slippery one" and the TEW thing being really a preemptive strike based on fear of the Seer who dreamt of Zil, and then I'll see about my vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm. I don't know about Zil. Sort of dark area for me, still too much. I have also reread some posts by Greenie, now I am inclined to count her among the innocent.

Of all people, Nerwen still looks to me the most voteworthy, but it would be really nice if she still posted at least once before I have to go, so that I could compare some "fresh" posts of hers, too.

Okay, will be back in some time - let's say fifteen, twenty minutes - and then vote, because it is getting close to 3 AM here. Heck, am I supposed to start to be like Nogrod, since we don't have him in this game?