ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

GROUP D

This group has us hating the grouping committee; any one of these teams has Round of Sixteen-level talent (at the very least).

• Armenelos

  4.75 MF Tar-Ancalimon
  3.5 GK Tar-Atanamir
  2 DF Tar-Palantir, DF Tar-Telperiën, MF Tar-Míriel

  With excellent athleticism, great teamwork, top-class individual talents like Tar-Atanamir, Tar-Telperiën, Ar-Adûnakhôr, and Ar-Pharazôn (as well as the rise of Tar-Ancalimon in the friendlies), this Armenelos team is not much different from its previous versions that have cemented Númenor’s status as one of the best footballing nations in Arda. But this year might be their darkest ever. Placed in a group with two Cup favourites and a third team unaccustomed to being left behind in the group stage, and with their lacklustre showing in the friendlies, the Númenórean squad is in danger of watching the knockout games from the side lines, the first time ever that a team from Elenna would fail to advance from the group stage. Now, nobody is counting the Royals out, but even they must admit that they’re not one of the favourites to advance from this group, either.
  
  
• Tirion

  8.5 FW Finwë
  6 FW Aredhel
  4 FW Eönwë

  With the talent this squad has, they’re certainly among the best sixteen (perhaps even the best eight) teams in the tourney. But in this group, their lack of a proper defence would be their undoing. Sure, Finwë and company can connect with the back of the net, but the other three teams in this group could match them goal for goal.
  
  
• FC Valinor

  7.25 FW Curufin
  5 MF Argon, MF Yavanna
  4 GK Huan

  They have Celegorm and Curufin up front and Huan at the rear. The trio have won the cup together, and Huan’s success in the Arda Cup is already much heralded. Tested personnel on both ends of the pitch usually translate into titles, if properly supported. With Argon flashing his talents in his first Arda Cup appearance (see the feature article above), and Yavanna being her usual self, they look set to continue Huan’s ridiculous semi-final appearance streak.
  
  
• Real Valinor

  6 FW Míriel
  5 FW Arien
  4 MF Nessa

  Tulkas is untested as a goalkeeper, but with Nienna tending the space in front of him the test will be lighter for him than for most new goalies. As for their front line, nothing more needs to be tested of Míriel, Nerdanel, and Arien—except, perhaps, winning it all.

Projected finish:
1. FC Valinor
2. Real Valinor
3. Armenelos
4. Tirion

GROUP E
After having these four teams scrambling to get out of this group, they will meet the best and the second-best team from Group D. Out of the frying pan and into the fire, indeed.

• Hithlum

  7 FW Húrin
  5.75 FW Túrin
  4.25 MF Nienor

  The bad news: After Hithlum’s three double-digit salary forwards, they have no one worth more than six million. The good news: the three forwards are Túrin, Húrin, and Hador. So everyone knows what this team will do best. Sure, they’re up against two Ainur-anchored defences in this group, but Túrin has never been denied the knockout stage before, and we don’t think he’ll be denied now. Also, Nienor has stepped up, averaging a goal or an assist per friendly game, and one can hope that Aradan or someone from the defence will similarly step up and anchor their back line to give them a chance to go further.
  
  
• The Havens

  4.25 MF Aegnor
  3.75 FW Eärendil
  2.75 FW Tuor

  The Havens have shown in the friendlies that you need to be a really good team to beat them. Unfortunately, the other teams in their group are ‘really good’. Too bad; Eärendil is back to normal form, and Aegnor seems to be having a breakout season.
  
  
• The Sea

  3.75 FW Tar-Minastir
  3.5 GK Voronwë, DF Ulmo
  2.25 MF Tar-Aldarion

  It was an idea that had been flirted with for a while—pairing Valarin defence with Númenórean offence should be a winning combination. But the idea never really took off, due perhaps to chemistry, or just plain team-building issues. Now Ulmo may have found the proper recipe; the Númenóreans have been taking care of the goals, delivering six in four games, and Ulmo and his Maiar have been taking care of the defence, limiting red-hot Tirion to two goals and Armenelos to one. This team balance on both ends of the pitch looks set to dominate this group of unbalanced squads.
  
  
• Valimar

  5 GK Manwë
  3.5 DF Amras, MF Pallando
  3.25 DF Vána, DF Námo

  Like the case of Misty Mts (whom they coincidentally met in the 2011 Arda Cup Round of Sixteen) last year’s Pelóri team has pretty much maxed out Manwë’s strategy, having enough of a scoring punch in Eönwë, Varda, and Oromë to ensure the one-goal win plan’s success. Sure, their current defence with Manwë manning the goal is still formidable (they’re the top defensive team of the friendlies), but having lost those three scorers in the offseason will hurt them in the putting-the-ball-in-the-net department. (From the numbers, it looks like Pallando can step up, but most of his damage had been done against the pathetic Mordor squad.)

Projected finish:
1. The Sea
2. Hithlum
3. Valimar
4. The Havens

[the phantom]

MESPN News: Team Guide Part 1
The Phantom

In this team guide our readers can learn a bit about the general habits and play of all the teams in Arda Cup 2012. It doesn't say much in the way of predictions, but it might be helpful for picking phantasy squads and the like all the same. Happy reading!

GROUP A

ANGBAND- Morgoth and his Balrog will hold down the defense in front of the solid guardian Carcharoth. The midfield will be asked to flow back to front, with Telvildo and Ancalagon always ready to launch the attack at the front. The ball is likely to go through Telvildo quite often, and everyone will always be looking to Ancalagon as a finisher. He isn’t the quickest to change directions nor does he have craftsmanlike ball skills, but he’s very fast and has as powerful a strike as anyone, and obviously he’s a very big target. Morgoth will take the occasional free-kick or corner, and both he and the Balrog are priority targets on such set plays.

SHIRE-BREE UNITED- This side will look to possess the ball at the front and play a lot of one touch ball to keep the defense running. Strider, Khamul, and Barrow-Wight are all solid distributors and finishers with decent speed and size. Bombadil historically plays inconsistent ball, but when his head is in it he has shocking speed and agility and finishing power to match.

THE DOWNER- This entire squad plays in a Bombadilish manner, inconsistently competing. Saucepan Man and Lalwende MP are fairly good about showing up, and both are decently skilled, but the spotty Hookbill is the preferred man to run the offense through, and the similarly untrustworthy Alien is the most dangerous finisher when his head is right.

TOL-IN-GAURHOTH- The Wights of TIG are always tactical and solid and play as a team. The Werewolves at the front, NogWolf and PhantomWolf, provide difficult matchups with their speed and physicality. On corners and such very few can challenge the leap of a Werewolf. Both have massive finishing power as well, with PhantomWolf particularly being a free kick specialist. Defender NilpWolf will push up in support when he can, as he has the speed to get back. In matches with particularly athletic strikers he will be tasked with hounding them. ShastaWolf in goal will be tough to get past with his Werewolf reflexes.

GROUP B

ARNOR- These guys will be flexible and play according to the moment. They don’t make mistakes on defense and Arvedui provides a quality final line. Isildur is the sort likely to demand touches up front, and Araphor has a history of late-game heroics. Elendil will be a big target on corners and the like. Free kicks will generally be handled by Isildur.

INTER BELERIAND- The midfield will be looking to feed Fingon and Maedhros at every opportunity. They both excel at teamwork and are great finishers. Maedhros is the big target in the middle while Fingon generally sends the kicks in. The Balrog at the back will come up and use his size and power in support when necessary.

ERIADOR- Elrond is as good a keeper as there is. Asfaloth will be tasked with defending large and/or fast strikers, while Gil-galad will occasionally send a kick into the box or be targeted on such a play. The Witch King is the always present target for finishing, while the speedy and deft Glorfindel is a slightly bigger threat for getting released behind the defense on a counter.

GONDOLIN- Rog is quality and there are some good athletes on the defense, but the money here is in the front. They’re going to try and work it to Maeglin and Gothmog as often as possible, whether through possession or through speculative long-balls. Gothmog is a huge powerful target and fast to boot, so he’s a threat on set plays and breakaways. Maeglin “sharp-boot” has spectacular feel and control to match his agility and will nearly always beat his man with the dribble one-on-one.

GROUP C

ANDUIN- These guys play defensively in front of Amroth and with Celeborn and Fram defending they can match up with quality strikers. Fram likes to stick his foot into the offense with long strikes and crosses, but if the opposition has a particularly monstrous striker his attention will be diverted. Anduin will use their midfield to possess and look to feed the powerful Grimbeorn. The quick and accurate Haldir is a particularly good passer, and also will snipe when the opportunity is there. The valiant leg of Boromir II will handle free kicks.

DWARVES UNITED- This team is defense first, and will try and counterattack with Celebrimbor and Aule rushing up in support when necessary. The craftsdwarves Telchar and Gamil Zirak are particularly good feeders, as is Aule when he’s in play, and of course Celebrimbor's touch is Feanor-esque. Legolas has a highly accurate strike and is difficult to keep up with. Free kicks will be split between him, Celebrimbor, and Aule depending on the distance and angle.

EREBOR- Beorn can cover a lot of net, and with three speedy eagles in the defense Erebor will not be outrun on a counter. Girion or Gwaihir might occasionally lend some pressure up front. Thranduil and Nazgul 7 are both accurate team player passers and decent finishers, Bard and Bolg are both offensive minded powerful shooters, and Smaug is obviously a giant target up front that can outmuscle defenders or outfly them on breakaways and has a thunderous tail-strike.

WILDERLAND- Great Warg has excellent reflexes in goal while the Ents protecting him have the size and strength to match powerful opponents. Oropher will be tasked with defending more agile opponents, as the straightline speed of the Ents doesn’t necessarily translate to direction changes. The defenders will look to get it to the front four as often as possible. Elwe, Galadriel, and Orome are all proficient in every aspect of offense, so they will work it with each other and also look to involve the giant tail of Scatha whenever possible.

GROUP D

ARMENELOS- The Numenorians will be organized in front of Tar Atanamir like always. The team will move as a whole up the pitch to attack, with Tar Telperien and Tar Palantir always ready to send it all the way forward should the opposition be lax in setting their back line. Ar Pharazon and Ar Adunakhor will be the ones making the dashes forward, and when the offense is established in the zone they will be the primary targets as well with their knack for finishing. Corners will alternate between Tar Ancalimon and Tar Miriel, while the direct free kicks will be split with Adunakhor and Pharazon.

TIRION- Finarfin and his defenders want nothing to do with the ball, and will be sending it forward soon and often. There is a great collection of aggressive athletes at midfield and forward that will be looking to charge forward at all times. Eonwe is the biggest target in the middle, but he can play dashing style offense as well alongside the accurate and powerful Finwe and the always skillful Aredhel. The pintpoint iron leg of Mahtan will generally send kicks in.

FC VALINOR- The wildly successful Huan will have ample protection, with the mighty steed Nahar handling particularly big and fast foes and Indis and Penlod supporting. Defender Maglor will be slightly more offensive minded, with the sure foot he inherited from his mom and dad. He will help Irmo, Idril and Yavanna in the midfield with the possession, while Argon will be asked to send in corners. Celegorm and Curufin will perpetually be looking for a release behind the defense, or to help each other do so.

REAL VALINOR- Tilion and Nienna will be matching up with powerful strikers at the back in front of Tulkas. Caranthir will occasionally be asked to erase an opposing athletic striker, but he will also be asked to be involved in the possession a lot. Tilion will provide a big target for occasional set plays. Nessa and the midfield will feed the famous trio at the front. Nerdanel and Miriel have fine accuracy matched only by the likes of Feanor, so they are proficient close-range finishers and perfect passers. Arien is the big gun up front, with flashing speed and scorching power.

[Nogrod]

The AKM is bringing you the most thorough analysis of the group phase. This is part one. Look for part two in a few days.

Reading instructions for the stats, an example.

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
W - 1 (4)
D - 3 (1,2,3)
L - 0
3-2
A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
O: 7,1% - 5,6%

That means the following… line by line.

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
5. = ranked number 5 from 32 teams.
(r.2) = belongs to ranking-group 2 (out of 5).
Angband = name of the team.
101£ = value of the team in millions.

W - 1 (4)
= 1 win in the friendlies (against a team from a ranking-group 4)

D - 3 (1,2,3)
= 3 draws in the friendlies (against teams from ranking-groups 1, 2 and 3)

L – 0
= 0 losses in the friendlies

3-2
= goals scored – goals allowed

A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
A: = attack
(3) = goals scored
15/42 = shots on target / shots overall
20% = the effectivity of the shots on target

D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
D: = defence
(2) = goals allowed
14/36 = shots allowed on target / overall shots allowed
85,7% = goalkeeper’s saving-percentage

O: 7,1% - 5,6%
O: = overall shots percentages
7,1% =goals scored from overall shots – 5,6% = goals allowed from overall shots allowed

~*~


Group A

5. (r.2) Angband, 101£
W - 1 (4)
D - 3 (1,2,3)
L - 0
3-2
A: (3) 15/42 – 20%
D: (2) 14/36 - 85,7%
O: 7,1% - 5,6%

24. (r.4) Tol In Gaurhoth, 68£
W - 0
D - 3 (2,3,5)
L - 1 (1)
5-7
A: (5) 22/54 – 22,7%
B: (7) 27/56 - 74,1%
O: 9,3% - 12,5%+

25. (r.4) ShireBree United, 72£
W - 0
D - 3 (3,4,4)
L - 1 (2)
11-13
A: (11) 29/63 – 37,9%
D: (13) 30/63 - 56,7%
O: 17,5% - 20,6%

32. (r.5) The Downer, 37£
W - 0
D - 0
L - 4 (1,2,3,4)
5-15
A: (5) 23/56 – 21,7%
D: (15) 33/68 - 54,5%
O: 8,9% - 22,1%

Group A should be one for Angband to pick. Yes they have not scored a bunch and have only won one game, but their opponents have been way classier than with the others – and who thinks a team gets a nice show-off scoring-board playing against teams like Anfaughlith or Valimar? And what’s even more important, they have not lost a single game and Carcaroth’s saving precentage of 85,7% is one of the best of the tournament thus far – not to say it is overwhelming in this company.

The scoring for team Angband has rested on the shoulders of Ancalagon thus far – and there’s nothing wrong with that as The Black sure knows how to do it. But the AKM thinks Tevildo needs to pull itself together – and we would be surprised if Morgoth himself would not change gear at some point when games start to matter. For unless those things happen, we can’t promise a long tournament to the team Angband even if it would swipe their first opponent from group H with no effort.

The Downer will be left to the bottom of the group, or third – they might tease T-I-G or Shire-Bree or even pick on Angband – but there just is no chance they could take consistent wins to qualify. So we are left with the question as to the other qualifier: Tol In Gaurhoth or Shire-Bree United?

Picking between the two is quite challenging indeed for two reasons.

First of all one never knows about the T-I-G –team. We have used to see the werewolves go pretty far in the tournament the previous years and it would be odd to see them drop off in the group-stage. But then again most of them are playing as wights this year and their friendly-performance has been moderate at best to put it nicely.

But the Shire-Bree –team is as much of an enigma. They have played three more or less “friendly-friendly” games where both teams have scored like in turns and thus the levels of their opponents in their draws should probably be totally ignored (not to talk of ignoring the number of goals made and allowed). In the only almost serious game, the last friendly, they lost to Eriador in no uncertain terms 1-3. But then again, and with the earlier reclaimer in mind, they have showed they can score and when no other team in the group can boast being top-scorers the AKM wishes to leave it open still: if it comes to outscoring the opponents then Shire-Bree can be on their road to qualifying, but a lot will also depend on Bombadill’s inspiration to play – and the homeground advance / disadvantage (sometimes being the home-team might also mean taking more pressure).

The AKM still bets the T-I-G will qualify. If not for anything else, then because of their superior goal-keeping – and possibly to the awakening of the few werewolves when the real games start.



Group B

8. (r.2) Eriador , 99£
W - 3 (3,4,4)
D - 0
L - 1 (2)
5-2
A: (5) 18/42 – 27,8%
D: (2) 15/41 - 86,7%
O: 11,9% - 4,9%

19. (r.3) Gondolin, 83£
W - 1 (3)
D - 1 (4)
L - 2 (1,3)
9-11
A: (9) 26/58 – 34,6%
D: (11) 33/65 - 66,7%
O: 15,5% - 16,9%

23.(r.4) Arnor, 71£
W - 1 (4)
D - 1 (5)
L - 2 (2,3)
5-7
A: (5) 22/51 – 22,7%
D: (7) 25/54 - 72%
O: 9,8% - 13,0%

26. (r.4) Inter Beleriand, 70£
W - 1 (5)
D - 0
L - 3 (1,2,3)
4-7
A: (4) 20/49 – 20%
D: (7) 24/53 - 70,8%
O: 8,2% - 13,2%

Even if we have been forced to degrade Eriador’s ranking from our previous estimate it looks clear they are more or less the favourites to group B. But, and there is a but here, both Gondolin and Inter Beleriand have had a tougher pre-season period and Eriador’s win over Rank 3 Imladris is not that straightforward. If they had drawn that game the tables would look much more even.

Elrond is one of the best goalies in whole Arda and the AKM is not suggesting he will be anything less than that this year either, but it is to be remarked that fex. Gondolin has been facing a lot tougher fire both quantitatively and qualitatively from their opponents than Eriador has. So the difference between Rôg and Elrond and the defences they lead might not be that great. Adding to that, the forward-duo Gothmog and Maeglin with their 20 million pricetags were thought by many to be overpaid before the friendlies, but with 4+2 (Gothmog) and 4+0 (Maeglin) it seems Gondolin is a seriously-scoring team, due to their skills at finishing. Compared to them Glorfindel and The Witch King have been mere sleep-walkers – and unless that changes – we will predict Gondolin to force Eriador to run for their money if they wish to win the group.

The AKM has raised the ranking of both teams Arnor and Inter Beleriand from the previous 5 to rank 4. It may be that that is not enough for them to overthrow Eriador (2) or Gondolin (3). But looking at the scheduals the teams have had in the friendlies the AKM will actually be betting on Inter Beleriand being one of them nearer to stir the group. Call that gut feeling in the end if you wish – or just trust in the dynamic duo of Maedhros and Fingon coming alive when the going gets tough.

The home-ground advantage behind team Arnor is a factor the AKM wishes to bring forwards though, with the added point that they tend to play very well tactically – and tactics is one thing the spectators rarely see in the friendlies. So maybe Artnor has a thing or two in their sleeves as well?

A host of draws to be anticipated in this group, but alongside Eriador… it is most probably Gondolin to qualify.



Group C

9. (r.2) Wilderland, 85£
W - 2 (2,5)
D - 2 (2,4)
L - 0
11-7
A: (11) 28/62 – 39,3%
D: (7) 26/54 - 73,1%
O: 17,7% - 13,0%

11. (r.2) Anduin, 80£
W - 2 (3,5)
D - 1 (2)
L - 1 (1)
6-5
A: (6) 17/42 – 35,3%
D: (5) 22/52 - 77,3%
O: 14,3% - 9,6%

12. (r.2) Erebor, 103£
W - 2 (2,5)
D - 1 (4)
L - 1 (2)
5-4
A: (5) 23/54 – 21,7%
D: (4) 17/41 - 76,5%
O: 9,3% - 9,8%

31. (r.5) Dwarves United, 89£
W - 0
D - 1 (4)
L - 3 (2,2,3)
1-6
A: (1) 18/43 – 5,6%
D: (6) 17/46 - 64,7%
O: 2,3% - 13,0%

Group C is one of the toughest to call as Wilderland, Anduin and Erebor take positions 9., 11. and 12. in the AKM rankings. Dwarves United might step up their game as well, but at the moment the AKM thinks it will not be enough and the qualification is a bussiness for the three top teams of the group.

Group C is an interesting one also because so many of the teams have already met in the friendlies. That begs the question, how much can one rely on those results? Anduin has drawn with Wilderland, Dwarves Utd. has lost to both Erebor and Wilderland, Erebor has lost to Wilderland but beaten Dwarves Utd. – and Wilderland has thus beaten both Erebor and Dwarves Utd. and drawn with Anduin. Looked at in this light Wilderland would be the favourites and Anduin the second qualifier.

With or without the in-group friendlies the AKM considers Wilderland more or less safe qualifier just looking at their scoring and especially the spread of that scoring-responsibility to several players. With Oromë (4+2), Scatha (3+0) Elwë (2+4) and Galadriel (2+3) they have wide variety of finishers even if one or two are having a bad day. Especially Scatha seems to be on an upward trend: Scatha made no goals in the first two games, scored once in the third and twice in the last one. Their defence sure is vulnerable but as long as they keep on scoring even close to what they have done thus far they should qualify as it looks improbable both Anduin and Erebor would beat them – or that Dwarves Utd. would suddenly find enough scoring-magic from somewhere.

From the two teams then the mötley crew of Erebor looks like the stronger one shooting more and letting the opposition to shoot less. But then again, the quality of the Anduin offence is statistically better. The teams they have played against is varied and one should be careful to not draw too many conclusions from that fact. Just looking at the results could speak for Anduin being the stronger of the two as they lost to Valimar only 0-1, draw with Wilderland and beat Imladris. But most of us know how Valimar plays and the Wilderland game was pretty careful on both sides – and Erebor has beaten Eriador in a fairly competitive (half)game but on the other hand drawn with Misty Mts. in a tough match, which is not to their honour.

Both teams seem to have an even top-scorer as both Smaug and Grimbeorn have scored three goals. With Anduin the scoring and assisting is concentrated on the top three players – with long passes coming from the defencive half as well – whereas Erebor seems to be using it’s midfield to assist and the forwards to score in a tighter formation.



Group D

1. (r.1) FC Valinor, 113£
W - 4 (1,3,4,5)
D - 0
L - 0
13-5
A: (13) 31/62 – 41,9%
D: (5) 22/59 – 77,3%
O: 21,0% - 8,5%

2. (r.1) Reäl Valinor, 104£
W - 3 (3,3,4)
D - 0
L - 1 (1)
12-6
A: (12) 31/65 – 38,7%
D: (6) 21/60 – 71,4%
O: 18,5% - 10%

6. (r.2) Tirion, 83£
W - 3 (3,4,5)
D - 1 (2)
L – 0
16-10
A: (16) 34/74 – 47,1%
D: (10) 28/58 – 64,3%
O: 21,6% - 17,2%

10. (r.2) Armenelos, 108£
W - 2 (4,5)
D - 2 (2,4)
L - 0
6-4
A: (6) 21/51 – 28,6%
D: (4) 17/44 – 76,5%
O: 11,8% - 9,1%

Even if the AKM downgraded team Armenelos to rank 10, all the four teams of group D are within the ten best-ranked in the tournament: first, second, sixth and tenth. That should speak for itself.

Now it seems that we have to begin dropping the teams off from the qualification-speculations from the hosts Armenelos. They have not shown such flashing qualities in the friendlies that would show they are capable to beat two teams from the three they are going to meet. But there are two great “buts” here. First of all, they clearly have not played it with full force and especially their draw with Gondor was something they just amiably allowed. Secondly, they are playing at their legendary home-stadium and the fighting spirit they will produce backed by the proud Númenorian tradition and demanding crowds are cards one should pay heed to when speculating about the strengths and weaknesses of different teams.

It is also worth mentioning that Ar Pharazôn was pretty invisible in the first friendlies but finally became alive in the last one. So is he gearing up as the important games approach or was it just a random incidence? Armenelos has not been too convincing when it comes to scoring (a thing which the AKM predicted already before the friendlies) but can they overcome that as the group-stage begins? If Ar Pharazôn and Ar Adunakhôr find their scoring prowess – and they get quality assists to feed them – the AKM is willing to change it’s prediction, but unless that happens this year’s tournament will most probably be a great disappointment to the hosts.

Another team we have to treat as a serious candidate for staying in the group-phase is Tirion. Now that may sound ridiculous looking at the way they score – and if they had not played it cordially even with the Sea they could have four wins in their pocket from the friendlies. With Finwë (7+2), Aredhel (3+4) and Eönwë (4+0) as the most efficient forward-trio of all teams it looks incomprehensible the team might drop from the next rounds. But they can.

Tirion’s problem is the defence. They allow almost double the goals from all shots booted against them (on target or not) than any other team in this group. So even if they score a lot, they also allow a lot. They might win a shooting-race against Armenelos, but both Valinor-teams score effectively as well – and let in only half of the shots in compared to Tirion. So Tirion needs to shut their defences in ways unseen thus far if they want to beat either of the Valinor-teams – and that is something they have to do if they wish to qualify.

That leaves the two favourites to the group, FC Valinor and Real Valinor, to be considered.

FC Valinor won the game they played against one another but Real has had a bit tougher schedule overall. Their stats are more or less equal – leaning slightly towards FC, but looking at the scheduals kind of evens that small difference a bit. There is also a nice comparison. Tirion won The Havens 5-3 in a fairly competitive game whereas FC Valinor only won them 3-2 in a game they were clearly not giving their best effort – but Real Valinor won Hithlum 5-2 in a real match-up whereas in another quite serious meeting Tirion only won them 4-3.

So the AKM thinks the two teams start from quite an equal footing FC Valinor being the slight favourites to win the group. But in the end it comes down to some individual comparisons… Between the posts at the moment it seems Huan gives the edge slightly to FC against Tulkas on Real’s goal. The defences look so even it is hard to make a difference there – except for Tilion’s possible role as a clutch-player for Real – although thus far he has been no more efficient than Maglor on FC Valinor’s side (both have 0+2). Both teams have quite forward-minded midfields so we’d like to look at both the MF’s and the FW’s at the same time.

Fëanor’s sons Curufin (5+3) and Celegorm (2+1) showed their dangerousness playing forwards last year and this year they have been showing that last year was no coincidence – especially Curufin has proved himself to be one of the most deadly strikers of the whole tournament. Last year their effort was not enough as they lacked support, but this year it looks different with such figures as Yavanna (2+3), Idril (0+3) – and the surprise-card Argon (4+0) – backing up their offence and showing capabilities of scoring themselves as well.

But Real Valinor’s attack is as deadly: Miriel (4+3) and Arien (5+0) bring hard times to any defence and Nessa (2+2) has proved to be a sneaky and effective midfielder when having inspiring enough company. If Nerdanel (“only” 0+3) gears up to her normal level, Huan will have to show his best to repeat the win for FC Valinor in the group-phase.

In the end it looks like the Valinor-teams will qualify, but it is possible one of the other teams make their way forwards. But what the AKM will promise is that the two qualifiers will not be Armenelos and Tirion – even if the games at Númenor will be tough and nothing near predetermined. Some quality football then on offer there!

[the phantom]

MESPN News: Team Guide Part 2
The Phantom

GROUP E

HITHLUM- Aradan and his protectors will be looking to be rid of the ball ASAP and up to the attacking trio of Turin, Hurin, and Hador. Hithlum will look for every opportunity to launch a swift and overwhelming counter, but when they are stymied initially they will look to the midfield, particularly Morwen and Nienor, to close in and work with the attackers. Turin of course will handle penalties. Corner duty will alternate between Hurin and his wife, with Turin and Hador as tall targets with fantastic heads for finishing.

THE HAVENS- This squad will play a lot of possession ball, with everyone assisting in nearly every area of the field. On offense Earendil, Angrod, and Aegnor will be the threats early in a counter or to make a dribble move to split an established defense. The towering Tuor will be a big finishing threat on crosses and corners. One of the Elf-brothers will handle most corners, while Earendil will take the majority of penalties. Olwe will send in the occasional long-ball.

THE SEA- Ulmo and his Maia helpers will have the midfield helping them, as the squad will place a priority on defense and build attacks carefully and tactically. When in possession the midfield will be asked to keep the ball moving swiftly so as not to give up possession with the most of the defense hanging well back. The Numenoreans up front have impressive size and power and will look to gain headers or clear lanes for powerful legs to send drives through. Ulmo will come up on set pieces quite often.

VALIMAR- This Manwe-led team will place a premium on defense, particularly with a lead. When it’s time to score Ilmare will share duties with Alatar and Pallando in an interchangeable style, always looking for the opening to send it in but conservatively sending it back or sideways to maintain possession if the offensive play looks to risky. Vaire will be asked to send in some of the corners, while the Namo’s leg of doom will handle longer send-ins and the occasional penalty.

GROUP F

IMLADRIS- Like his brother, Elros is a highly skilled keeper, and the defense in front of him will have Varda to erase large powerful threats. The rest of the squad will play smart team defense first, and will try to be on the lookout to get it forward to the sons of Elrond, who will always be looking to launch an attack. When executing standard offense, the ball will likely flow through the skillful Arwen, who is an excellent distributor and will also send in corners. The brothers will alternate on penalties.

ISENGARD- Caradhras will always be fairly far back on defense to protect Ugluk, but Mauhur and Treebeard will move up a bit to establish a back end. They will look to get the ball to the wizard at the front as often as possible, as Saruman can make plays himself and also has an eye for passing others into space. Quickbeam is a towering and deadly powerful finisher, and will split penalty duty with Saruman.

MISTY MTS- The mountain team will play physical defense at the back end, with Chief Wolf assigned duties on particularly speedy strikers. The Elves (Rumil & Orophin) along with Narvi will run the show from the midfield and look to release the powerful finishers Durin’s Bane and Azog, who also possess nice pace on rushing counters. Look for Narvi to send in most kick, while DBane will handle the penalties.

ROHAN- The whole side will move forward aggressively to support the attack, as the three horses at the rear (Shadowfax, Felarof, Snowmane) have the speed to dash back to foil counters. Everyone will help out with possession, with Gandalf at the center of things. He’s a threat to finish, but Eorl and Helm will be asked to do most of that duty. Those two will alternate on taking penalties, and the wizard will send in most longer kicks.

GROUP G

ANGFAUGLITH- Ungoliant and her three Balrog protectors will be focused on their craft, as will most of the rest of the team. Thuringwethil will be entirely offensive minded, and her teammates will look to send her towards the goal at every opportunity. With her winged speed few can keep up with her and she also has vampiric power and leaping ability for finishing on set pieces. Galdor and Gundor will alternate on corners, while a Balrog or two may come up occasionally for a power drive or to provide an alternate header target for a cross.

AC BELERIAND- Rochallor will handle large and/or speedy foes in front of Marach. When a particularly athletic striker threatens Fingolfin will be called upon to dedicate himself to defense, but otherwise he will be looking to be involved with the offense, offering long drives and a corner target. The midfield will be tasked with keeping possession and feeding the scorers. The premier craftsmen, Eol and Feanor, will demand the ball early and often, and either can split through multiple opponents with the ball on their toe. Beren will send in the corners, while Feanor will take penalties.

DORIATH- Melian will run the show here, organizing the defense and taking charge of the possession game in the midfield. Daeron and Luthien in particular are excellent and creative with possession and when distributing. Beleg is also deadly accurate, but with his power he will be turning a lot of kicks towards the goal. Mablung of the heavy-boot will take most penalties and will hammer drives from any position.

NARGOTHROND- They will try to control the ball at all times, always looking to work it forward to the playmakers at the front. The midfielders are team-minded and heady, as is Finrod who will also look to do a lot of distributing. Gwindor will make most of the sudden runs with him, while Glaurung will be the finishing threat when the ball is on the wings. Penalties will be split with the dragon and Finrod, while corner duty will be a family affair with Orodreth and Finduilas.

GROUP H

BARAD-DUR- The Mouth will be the brains at the back end, always in synch with the wishes of his master. The Fellbeast will be invaluable in erasing dragon-type threats in front of the net-covering Mumakil. The midfield will place a premium on possession, and Sauron himself will be free to float anywhere he likes, waiting to be released by his supporters, or coming back to take charge of things himself. Sauron will certainly be taking penalties and such, and will be the prime threat on corners sent in by Beruthiel.

GONDOR- This squad will play all together with flexibility, with the show running through King Anarion as often as possible. Eldacar will be asked to try a flashy run every so often, while Romendacil and Falastur will handle the send-ins. Anarion will be first choice on penalties.

MINAS TIRITH- They will play similar to their Gondor relatives, only a bit more defensive minded in front of Denethor. Mardil will be involved as often as possible with his skills for distributing and instigating. Faramir is also excellent in support, and will be asked for pinpoint corners and crosses. Boromir I has nice size and athleticism and will be asked to boot it in off of penalties and to finish attacks.

MORDOR- It takes a ball struck with belief and confidence to pass the goal barrier of the Silent Watcher. The Fellbeast in front of him will take care of larger and/or aerial threats while all the Nazgul will work together for a fast-flowing possession game. Shelob at the front will always be looking to attack- her considerable bulk clearing space for drives and especially for ringing headers fed by the wraiths.

[Boromir88]

POWER RANKINGS
Boromir the 88th

We are finally able to bring you the updated power rankings after 4 friendly rounds. Our rankings have taken several factors into account and put them all into a single equation that gives us 1 value. The factors:

1. Results (Points from wins, draws, and losses during friendlies).
2. Strength of Opponent
3. Offense (teams ranked 1-32 and are given a value. That value is re-adjusted based on strength of opponents defense.)
4. Defense (teams ranked 1-32 and are given a value. That value is re-adjusted based on the strength of the opponents offense)
5. GK (teams ranked 1-32 based on GK save %)

After all these factors here's what the latest TTN Power Rankings tell us:

01. FC Valinor (4-0-0) - 48.9
02. Real Valinor (3-0-1) - 47.5
03. Tirion (3-1-0) - 39.5
04. Eriador (3-0-1) - 38.5
05. AC Beleriand (2-2-0) - 37.4
06. Valimar (2-2-0) - 37.3
07. Wilderland (2-2-0) - 34.6
08. Erebor (2-1-1) - 34.4
09. Armenolos (2-2-0) - 33.9
10. Anduin (2-1-1) - 29.8
11. Angband (1-3-0) - 29.7
12. The Sea (1-3-0) - 29.6
13. Rohan (1-3-0) - 28.8
14. Anfauglith (0-4-0) - 28.3
15. Nargothrond (1-2-1) - 27.8
16. Imladris (2-0-2) - 25.6
17. Doriath (1-2-1) - 25.2
18. Misty Mts (0-4-0) - 22.9
19. Isengard (1-2-1) - 22.6
20. Hithlum (1-1-2) - 22.2
21. Gondolin (1-1-2) - 21.2
22. Shire Bree Utd (0-3-1) - 20.3
23. Gondor (0-3-1) - 19.1
24. Arnor (1-1-2) - 18.1
25. Tol in Gaurhoth (0-3-1) - 17.8
26. Minas Tirith (0-2-2) - 16.4
27. The Havens (1-0-3) - 14.4
28. Inter Beleriand (1-0-3) - 12.6
29. Dwarves Utd (0-1-3) - 12.6
30. Mordor (0-2-2) - 11.9
31. Barad Dur (0-1-3) - 11.2
32. The Downer (0-0-4) - 6.2

Keep following TTN as we bring you group predictions and analysis next!