ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

It's that time of season again. 2012 Arda Cup. Bigger. Better. And more unpredicatable then ever. We've thrown every advanced stat we could think of into the puzzle and there's still not a conclusive picture.

The Favorite = the team TTN feels has the greater expectation to win the group. This does not always mean the team TTN predicts will win the group, just the team that should win based on payroll, players, and looking at the friendlies/stats.

The Challenger = The team that we feel can challenge the favorite for 1st place in the group. But also have the great probability of advancing ahead of "The Upset."

The Upset = The team that is not favored to advance to the playoffs, but might pull off a surprise in the group matches, and knock out "The Challenger" or "The Favorite."

The Relegate = The team that will have an early exit from the tournament.

*TTN Note: Since the groups are not equally balanced, some groups may have multiple "Favorites," "Challengers"...etc and some groups may have no "Challengers", "Upsets," or "Relegates." Though we tried our best to avoid this situation, and clearly distinguish teams within their respective groups - no matter how insanely tough most groups are to call*

GROUP A

The Favorite: Angband. (TTN - 11. OFF - 30. DEF - 3. GK - 6)

We do think Morgoth held back the full offensive ability of Angband during the friendlies. They are certainly much better than the 30th rank indicates. It could be a clever scheme, as the tales of Elves and Men go...when Morgoth secretly holed up in his stronghold, away from the eyes of the Valar, and unleashed a fury of death and destruction upon Beleriand. So, we can't under-estimate what plots Morgoth has hatched while remaining reserved and defensive in the friendlies. Still if we're talking about a team that can win shooting matches, it won't be Angband. Sure they have some dangerous bite with the quick agility of Telvildo, and the intimidating power of a dragon (not to mention Morgoth), but there are some big weaknesses. Primarily, the rest of the team is not very threatening.

The Challenger: Tol In Gaurhoth (TTN - 25. OFF - 20. DEF - 24. GK - 11)

A really disappointing and disjointed friendly performance from TIG. Although, normally their key wolf players don't give an effort in friendly matches, trusting their natural talents are superior and they don't need "practice." The stats are a bit worse than they look. Scoring 5 goals, but giving up 7, and being outshot 44 to 56 is not a normal stat line for TIG-teams (even when they are giving a careless effort). However, most of that imbalance comes from the 3-1 loss to Real Valinor. TIG will lose to superior athletes, and their risky tactics makes them prone to losing games they should win. Looking at the Group A picture though, the wolves on the team can match Angband's talent, and also play a much better team game.

The Upset: Shire-Bree Utd. (TTN - 22. OFF - 7. DEF - 27. GK - 30)

This is an intriguing team, if one recalls Bywater from 2010. To the upset heard around Arda, when Bywater advanced, leaving Thangorodrim out of the playoffs. Granted, different year, different team make-ups, and Thangorodrim was without Morgoth. One might still wonder though, that if Angband comes in over-confident this pesky Shire team might surprise them again, especially since Bombadil has been a pain to Morgoth before (see 2009 Breeland v. Valimar). The 2010 Bywater team though, relied on some dirty back door trickery from the Valar to advance ahead of Thangorodrim and we can't see The Downer or Tol-in-Gaurhoth giving Shire-Bree the same kind treatment. Plus 2010 Bywater had a steady GK in Rosie Cotton, and GK will be Shire-Bree's undoing.

The Relegate: The Downer (TTN - 32. OFF - 23. DEF - 31. GK - 31)

Not much to add here. The Downer doesn't have the payroll, players, nor tactics to seriously contend at this level. We've seen some improvement in their actual focus to play the game, and thus a slight improvement in their overall performance, but not nearly enough. And still lack the discipline to beat anyone.

Round 1:

Angband 2 - 0 The Downer
Shire Bree 2 - 3 Tol In Gaurhoth

Group A Prediction:
1. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
2. Angband
3. Shire-Bree United
4. The Downer

GROUP B

The Favorite: Eriador. (TTM - 4. OFF - 19. DEF - 4. GK - 4)

Folks are wondering if Elrond is nursing an injury, or if the Underground's accusations of an illegal miruvor-steroid last year were correct, becuase he was only the 4th best keeper in the friendlies. Others are saying those folk are neurotic, because Elrond still had an 86.7 sv%. If Elrond is Eriador's biggest worry, than the future must be looking bright for them. This reminds me of the 2010 Gondolin team, maybe not the absolute best names on the pitch, but solid talent at every position. Proven strikers (Witch-King and Glorfindel) a midfield that doesn't squander possession, a foreseeing with tireless-horse defense (Gil-Galad, Malbeth, and Asfaloth), all backed by the best GK to ever play the game. If this team doesn't take 1st, and doesn't at least advance to the semis, it will be a colossal failure of ill-spent money.

The Upsets:

1. Gondolin. (TTN - 21. OFF - 9. DEF - 30. GK - 23)

No one in this group seems seriously able to challenge Eriador for 1st, but there are two teams that might, just yet, surprise us. First is Gondolin, who has the best striking duo of Group B. But Duilin in the mid-field is an underrated player. Back in his natural position of feeding passes to the star-strikers, Gondolin's mid field will be the key to advancing in this group.

2. Inter Beleriand. (TTN - 28. OFF - 27. DEF - 20. GK - 19)

Maedhros and Fingon have to be better than the 27th offense, then again, they might not be having the best chances because the mid-field is underperforming. (Haleth has to do better than 1 assist and 2 yellows). Still with a Balrog on the defense and Turgon manning the posts, they have good players in key positions and thus are an upset pick.

The Relegate: Arnor (TTN - 24. OFF - 22. DEF - 21. GK - 16)

Good competitors who are known for late game comebacks, but let's be honest, Isildur and Araphor are the weakest FWs in the group. Elendil has at best been inconsistant, and at worst, non-existant in Arda Cup play. Arvedui is capable of having great days in the GK, but also being extremely average, so arguably is the weakest GK in the group.

Round 1:
Inter Beleriand 2 - 2 Gondolin
Arnor 0 - 1 Eriador

Group B Predictions:
1. Eriador
2. Gondolin
3. Inter Beleriand
4. Arnor

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

GROUP C

The Favorite: Erebor (TTN - 8. OFF - 21. DEF - 7. GK - 7)

Even if currently in TTN's power rankings Erebor is behind Wilderland, Erebor is coming in as our favorite to win Group C, just by looking at the match up. I mean, a Dragon against tree defenders...anyone see a problem with that match up? Add in Thranduil is superior to Oropher and the team-play of a Nazgul, there is no reason Erebor should be content finishing in 2nd. Plus Bard returns to command the position he has been most comfortable in, the mid-field. Erebor will have tougher challenges against Anduin (with an experienced monster-slayer on the defense) and Dwarves United (who are also very resilient to dragons)

The Challenger: Wilderland (TTN - 7. OFF - 6. DEF - 22. GK - 13)

There is something about this team that we just don't trust, right now. It's not the unpredictable tree-defenders (great when roused, but clumsy and careless in close quarters), but also Thingol and Galadriel. Sure both played vital roles in the attack during the friendlies, but they are notorious for being dreadfully conservative and too-defensive when the real matches begin. They must command the mid-field as they did in the friendlies, by pushing the ball up to their star-FWs, if they return to their usually negative tactics, Wilderland will not advance.

The Upset: Anduin (TTN - 10. OFF - 13. DEF - 16. GK - 15)

We don't trust Wilderland and there's something that intrigues us with this Anduin team (and no it's not some boyish fan crush TTN has with BoromirII). It's a sneaky quick attack that matches up well against the slow Dwarves and the wooden Wilderland defenders. Led by a man, who is one of the premier defenders sought out when a team wants to shut out the opponent's dragon. Plus, Celeborn and Galadriel are separated again, so we'll see if Celeborn's ingenuity will come out in Anduin's play, when in the past, it always appeared Galadriel jealously refused to listen to Celeborn's ideas.

The Relegate: Dwarves United (TTN - 29. OFF - 31. DEF - 9. GK - 26)

I really don't think there as bad as they performed in the friendlies. I mean how could they be with both Celebrimbor and Aule in the defense? The team though, is just not working as it currently sits. They tried to address the problems of fielding an entire dwarvish team, by attracting some Elves who were friends of dwarves, but really Legolas is no good as the lone offensive threat, and Celebrimbor can't hold the defense forever. Especially since Bombur is not that great of a GK.

Round 1
Anduin 2 - 2 Wilderland
Dwarves Utd. 1 - 2 Erebor

Group C Prediction:
1. Erebor
2. Anduin
3. Wilderland
4. Dwarves United

GROUP D

The Favorites:

1. FC Valinor (TTN - 1. OFF - 4. DEF - 17. GK - 14)

It is nearly impossible to distinguish between these two, but we're going to try to anyway. FC Valinor will have the confidence boost from beating Real in the friendly match, but there really is no significant statistical defense. Perhaps the fact that Huan performed better, and is the more proven GK, is the most important stat, but even he wasn't on top form during the friendlies.

2. Real Valinor (TTN - 2. OFF - 5. DEF - 15. GK - 17)

Even if the friendlies showed an even performance, we would still take the Arien-Miriel-Nerdanel trio ahead of Curufin-Celegorm-Yavanna at this moment. And here is also something to consider, the x-factor on Real Valinor is Caranthir. He is prone to losing his temper, but he also knows how to neutralize his brothers. It will be interesting to see what secrets Caranthir gives to Tilion that could slow down Curufin and Celegorm.

The Challenger: Armenolos (TTN - 9. OFF - 15. DEF - 8. GK - 10)

It is very difficult for us to invision a playoff that did not have the royalty of Numenor as one of the final 16 teams. Plus, you woud think with all of Numenor behind them, that would give the Numenoreans the right spirit and motivation. Ar Pharazon desires nothing more than to send the Valar packing, in front of his home fans. But this isn't the same overly-complacent Valar-led teams. They have star-quality written up and down the rosters, and would also like to sink Armenolos' championship hopes, just as they sunk the island of Numenor many ages ago.

The Upset: Tirion (TTN - 3. OFF - 1. DEF - 25. GK - 27)

We almost listed Tirion as a relegate, which is a shame, because in any other group they would be a challenger or favorite. Their defense and goal tending is way too porous to pick them to advance from this group. With that said, their offense is so good Tirion can't be completely counted out of the playoff picture.

Round 1
FC Valinor 1 - 2 Real Valinor
Armenolos 2 - 2 Tirion

Group D Prediction:
1. Real Valinor
2. FC Valinor
3. Armenolos
4. Tirion

GROUP E

The Favorite: Valimar (TTN - 6. OFF - 18. DEF - 1. GK - 2)

One of the top defenses and goal keepers, plus one of the most expensive payrolls and the Valar have to be favorites to win Group E. However, TTN is predicting they're going to flop in 2012. Almost for the same reasons as Wilderland, since those leading the team have dreadfully conservative tactics, which just has never worked in the tournament. But unlike Wilderland (who can unleash some dangerous strikers with Scatha and Orome), Valimar has an untested offense. The key to beating offensive power-houses like Hithlum (and even The Havens) is pressuring their defense and having a killer instinct. A 1-goal lead is never safe when facing Turin. Unfortunately, this instinct does not reside in Manwe's team.

The Challenger: The Sea (TTN - 12. OFF - 11. DEF - 11. GK - 12)

A far more balanced Valar team, and thus very dangerous. Ulmo is the premier defender in Arda, especially when aided by his Maiar helpers. Now you add in a deadly finisher like Tar Minastir? And you have the makings of a team that can advance deep. Tar Minastir is a mighty threat, but that is their weakness, since he's pretty much their only threat, even though Ulmo likes to be adventurous and creative in the offense as well.

The Upset: Hithlum (TTN - 20. OFF - 3. DEF - 28. GK - 32)

It would be unheard of if Turin is left in the group stages, but there is a significant possibility of this happening. Even if TTN personally believes Valimar are too complacent to deliver a killing blow to Hithlum, that doesn't mean the Valar are pushovers...certainly not defensively. Hithlum's defense is bad, and Aradan absolutely has to do better than saving 53.1% in order to dethrone the stuffy Valar.

The Relegate: The Havens (TTN - 27. OFF - 8. DEF - 29. GK - 28)

Defensively they were slightly worse than Hithlum, and offensively they are significantly weaker. Earendil is a great talent and Aegnor seemed to have a hot boot in the friendlies, but they don't have the offensive fire-power to go up against the 2 Valar teams, and make up for their huge defeciency on defense, like Hithlum does.

Round 1:
Hithlum 2 - 3 The Sea
The Havens 1 - 2 Valimar

Group E Prediction:
1. The Sea
2. Hithlum
3. Valimar
4. The Havens

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

GROUP F

The Favorite: Rohan (TTN - 13. OFF - 17. DEF - 5. GK - 7)

A tough team to beat in the friendlies, and it still felt like they were holding back some. None of the offenses in this group, should trouble the Rohan horses + wizard, it really is an underrated group of defenders. Only Eomer showed his offensive prowess during the friendlies, once Gandalf and Eorl get going, this team can go deep into the tournament.

The Challenger: Imladris (TTN - 16. OFF - 25. DEF - 13. GK - 5)

We're not sure why the general attitude seems to be Imladris is a "class above" the other two teams in this group. They're stats are actually quite average, and they were outshot by quite a significant margin 34(15) to 51(21). It's only been Elros' masterful job in front of the net which has made Imladris look decent. Isengard and Misty Mountains are good offensive teams, and if the children of Elrond can't do better to relieve the defense, then Imladris will not advance. The defense allows a lot of shots, and Imladris' fate is solely resting upon the hands of Elros.

The Upsets:

1. Isengard (TTN - 19. OFF - 14. DEF - 12. GK - 21)

Biggest weakness is a below-average GK with Ugluk. But Saruman has lead an offense that created the most opportunities of the teams in this group (52 total shots, 23 on target). And defensively, they have been pretty good. With the promise that Caradhras will play very deep to aid Ugluk more, Isengard is primed to pull of an upset.

2. Misty Mountains (TTN - 18. OFF - 10. DEF - 23. GK - 20)

Misty Mts also has the chance to shake up this group. We give them less of a chance than Isengard, simply because with the Misty Mts there is a great probability they play a player short due to all the cards they pick up. Still Durin's Bane and Azog can create several goals on any day.

Round 1
Imladris 0 - 1 Rohan
Isengard 2 - 2 Misty Mountains

Group F Prediction:
1. Rohan
2. Isengard
3. Imladris
4. Misty Mountains

GROUP G

The Favorite: AC Beleriand (TTN - 5. OFF - 12. DEF - 6. GK - 3)

One of the more balanced teams during the friendlies...with the 12th best offense, 6th in defense and Marach 3rd best GK. We will have to wait and see if Marach can keep up the high save %, but even if there is a drop off, we actually expect the offense to get better. Feanor, Eol, and Beren? Tis a mighty attack and it will be hard to hold AC Beleriand to 1-goal.

The Challenger: Nargothrond (TTN - 15. OFF - 2. DEF - 32. GK - 29)

Ridiculously good offense with Glaurung, Finrod, and Gwindor, but how bad is the defense and GK? In this group, they need to find some better balance and play better defense or they won't advance. We think Finrod has the wiser head to realize they need to play less risky. If not, than Nargothrond fans will start grumbling about the high payroll.

The Upset: Anfauglith (TTN - 14. OFF - 32. DEF - 2. GK - 1)

Which one will win out in Group G then? The great offense and non-existant defense, or great defense and non-existant offense? At least in the group stage, we give the edge to a team that can put a plethora of goals at any time in a match. In the later stages, it's always the most balanced team that advances. But in the group stages, I want a team like Nargothrond, and not Anfauglith who on their best days seems only capable of clawing for 1.

The Relegate: Doriath (TTN - 17. OFF - 16. DEF - 10. GK - 24)

This may cause some disagreement with other members of the media, because Doriath isn't a BAD team...however, they're just way too average when compared to the rest of the group. A pretty good defense, and average offense, and mediocre goal keeping isn't enough to contend with the great teams in this group. It will make for some highly thrilling matches, but unfortunately not enough for Doriath to advance.

Round 1
AC Beleriand 3 - 2 Doriath
Anfauglith 1 - 2 Nargothrond

Group G Prediction:
1. AC Beleriand
2. Nargothrond
3. Doriath
4. Anfauglith

GROUP H

The Favorite: Gondor (TTN - 23. OFF - 26. DEF - 18. GK - 8)

This group frustrates TTN like no other. We pull for each one of these hometown fans, but honestly they're all pretty much rubbish. None of them showed anything in the friendlies that would confidently distinguish themselves from the rest of the group. Really, each one of these teams has a 25% chance of finishing 1st, 25% chance of 2nd...etc. We're just going with Gondor as the favorite, because they played the least inept and Hyarmendacil was the best GK of the group. Plus, Eldacar did nothing in the friendlies, and we expect he'll do much better in the group.

The Challengers:

1. Barad-Dur (TTN - 31. OFF - 24. DEF - 26. GK - 22)

Barad Dur has the best potential from this group. That is, we can't figure out why they played so badly, other than maybe just a poor attitude towards friendlies. But with Sauron, Castamir, and Beruthiel in the attack, we can't figure out why the offense isn't better. The defense and GK is a still not good enough to advance beyond the 1st round of playoffs, and may not even be good enough to get to the playoffs.

2. Minas Tirith (TTN - 26. OFF - 29. DEF - 14. GK - 18)

Kind of the same story as Barad-dur, only it's the offense that has been the problem from Minas Tirith. They were the best defensive team in this group and the Stewards know how to deal with trouble that spews out from the Black Gates. Our only hope is this group of intense rivals will make the matches in this group more interesting.

The Upset: Mordor (TTN - 30. OFF - 28. DEF - 19. GK - 25)

When playing against teams of Men, the Nazgul are dangerous and tough foes. So they won't be pushovers in this group, even though their stats are quite...bad. If it comes down to either Barad-dur or Mordor advancing, we expect the talent and dominance of Sauron to prevail over his servants.

Round 1
Barad Dur 2 - 2 Minas Tirith
Gondor 2 - 2 Mordor

Group H Prediction:
1. Gondor
2. Barad Dur
3. Minas Tirith
4. Mordor