WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Meneltarmacil]

So far, I've viewed Nogrod as innocent and I have no reason to change my views on him.

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation. Nerwen was the last of the two to vote, but I don't know how much that signifies.

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

As mentioned above, she voted for Sally after having read your vote-post for her, unlike Shasta who was cross-posting instead. As the debate was mostly whether or not to vote for you or Sally, she was probably hoping to kick you off instead. Once votes were adding up for Sally with the deadline in sight, that's when she decided it was a lost cause.

Again, that's simply an expansion of why her having the last vote might make her slightly more suspicious, but not by much.

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.

[Nerwen]

#257.
Nog and Shasta "don't look like wolves". Thinks I might still be, as Sally was "beyond saving" when I voted. Either Kath or Legate might be a wolf who voted too early.


#262.

Originally Posted by Menel

As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

#271 Menel has now re-thought his suspicion of me.

Originally Posted by Menel

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are

(because our votes crossed.) Menel now thinks either Legate or Kath is a wolf, but "only one of them". [To quote Shasta at #273, "Where's the third wolf, Menel?"]


#274 Suddenly "our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen". This is because wolf-on-wolf voting at DL on Day 3 is "the most likely possibility". (Wolf-on-wolf voting Day 4 is, on the other paw, almost inconceivable, therefore Kath cannot be a wolf– and neither canMenel himself.)


[After some back-and-forth with Shasta and myself]
#289. Kath is now a possible wolf again.


[After more dialogue with me]
#293 Late Day 3 Sally voters are suspicious because "the wolf" must have thought Sally safe from lynching, anyway.


[After I pointed out that my vote crossed with Shasta's only.]
#296.Still believes Sally was "safe" at DL, but "that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf".


After I argue that, whether there was wolf-on-wolf on not, it could not have been the "safe" voting he insists it was, he finally concedes:
#300

Originally Posted by Menel

Umm... OK, I admit I had already written you off for voting that close to the deadline and had to think of the most likely possibility out of the alternatives I mentioned previously.

My brain has officially turned to mud now. I think I'm going to go to sleep before I start babbling insanities on this threaOOH LOOK BUNNIES*crash*

[Nerwen]

And toDay, as you see, I'm Menel's chief suspect again. For, as far as I can work out, the very reason he finally eliminated me from suspicion yesterDay. Amazing.

[Nerwen]

Look, there's one thing I think I had best get out of my system now: Kath, I know it probably just reflects your being short of time, but in this, as in some other games, I find myself getting quite irritated and frustrated by your habit of forming opinions from what appears to be a very quick skim of the thread.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nog - states no one tried to save sally and thought this was odd. Then responds to Agan's post about Legate possibly being a wolf who had to vote early. Says if Menel was the last wolf it would make sense that sally was left alone to die - I didn't follow this yesterDay. Can you explain further Nog? Says Shasta had both gone against sally and spoken of Legate as being suspicious - so perhaps not the third wolf.

Menel got confused about timezones the day Sally died, and didn't get back in time to vote. This is a key point.

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Technically correct, but still a subtle misrepresentation: Shasta actually argued strongly *against* "Kath + Menel", and *for* Legate, and merely added "I suppose you might be right, though"

Originally Posted by Kath

Menel - thinks Nog and Shasta aren't wolves as their votes put sally in the lead. Thinks Nerwen's late vote for sally could be wolf-on-wolf - fair enough, weren't many options by that point. Votes Legate following the general reasoning of yesterDay. All these possibility/elimination posts are a bit off. He did seem to discount everyone but Legate at one point, leaving no third wolf. Then almost re-did it and came up with Nerwen and Shasta as other options. I mean, I agree, I just think it was oddly done. Votes Legate.

Actually, by the end of yesterDay Menel had decided I must be innocent, and you and Shasta the only possible wolves.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - points out that sally nearly was saved and Nog nearly died instead. It was only the exact last minute votes of Shasta, Nog and Nerwen that stopped it and it seems they pretty much all cross posted. Was the rule that whoever hit the most votes first was lynched? Nog voting for sally to put them at a draw could have been an attempt to limit the damage from sally's POV the next day if both were wolves. Shasta and Nerwen's simply throwing a wolf under the bus because they believed the other innocent was going for sally. Asks if the last wolves are Kath and Menel, thus ignoring Legate. Can't believe this would be deliberate but might just not have thought about it. Takes back idea but thinks Menel could be the last wolf. A 'lupine counting slip' in 271 - well, potentially.

About your points against me here: um, well you know what? A number of them are factually incorrect, in ways I already pointed out yesterDay. If I sound annoyed here, I am.

Do I think Kath is a wolf? Well, probably not– the arguments against that have been put so many times I don't think it's worth stating them again. But even from an innocent, this kind of thing is a potential aid to the evil side.

All right, I just had to get that off my chest.

EDIT: typo.

[Meneltarmacil]

When I made that statement yesterday about Kath, I had failed to consider her actions on the previous Day. In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

And Nerwen when I sad "That would make you innocent and Shasta the wolf," I was referring to a theory that I was finding increasingly tenuous.

Although, come to think of it, there is only one person who has remained on my suspect list throughout the Nerwen-Kath uncertainty: Shasta. Interesting...

[Nerwen]

So, I've been making my own analysis of Legwolf, from the point of view of finding links to his fellow. I got as far as the end of Day One, and even that is, as Legate himself would say, "a novel". Here it is:


Legate, Day One

#10. IC banter. Will not be able to post much due to exams.


#22. Speculates about the Cobbler, in response to Zil (#16) and Kath (#19).


#23. More on the Cobbler, in response to Agan (#20). Responds to Pitch (#21), who considers that Kath’s (still cobbler-related) question (#19) suspicious.

Originally Posted by Legwolf

Hm, good spot. But then again, I think even innocents can speculate on theoretical basis - after all, what else is all this cobbler-pick debate about...

Makes a list, from which I extract his comments on the living:– not that I think there’s much to be gleaned there:

Originally Posted by Legwolf

Shasta - exactly one of the no show folks
Menel - nothing special this far, I have no intention to get rid of him for no special reason when playing with him after such a long time
Nerwen - again, nothing there
Nogrod - I fear of seeing him posting at 5 AM, when I am no longer here...
Kath - ha, actually, I think I am sort of forming an opinion about her - which is most unusual, because normally I have no clue about her whatsoever! She seems in any case very active and interested, in fact, she was one of the main talkers this far... there is an air of genuine interest and activity about her, I'd say.

#40. Makes a couple of what he describes as “really brief” remarks. The first is on the “she-cobbler” affair– he find neither Agan nor G55 suspicious. Second is a response (of some length, actually) to Lommy’s (#34) and Nog’s (#35) suspecion of Menel.

Originally Posted by Legwolf

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

Note: What Lommy actually said was that she found Menel suspicious “for some reason”, but would reserve judgement on him; at #31 she thought G55’s case on him “flimsy”. So this seems quite an over-reaction on Legate’s part, as far as Lommy is concerned.


#72. At some length, defends Menel against G55 (#52) and Nogrod (#49, #50). Again interprets (or re-interprets) several of Menel’s “Captain Obvious” statements, explaining what he thinks Menel *really meant*. Sample:

Originally Posted by Legwolf of Amon Lanc

I think he was saying a sensible thing, I mean, if we dissect everything, then everything is already a known fact, one way or another. Nothing new under the sun. Yet saying "if we keep mislynching due to certain people leading the discussion, we should turn our eyes on them" is a reasonable thing to say, so why shouldn't he say it.

Meanwhile, Nog is “standing out”, his reaction to Pitch’s vote for him being “somewhat too jumpy”


#81. Considers whom to vote. Dismisses Nog as his later posts are “very moderate”. (Can only refer to #74, where Nog partly backs off Menel, and subsequent posts where he goes after G55 and Pitch instead). Pitch and Agan are somewhat suspect for “cobbler-talk” and Lommy for “Menel-waggoning” and “harshness”. But G55 is the “best pick”.


#84. Votes G55.


#86. Mildly disputes Nogrod’s point (#85) that G55 tends to be an easy target.


And… that’s pretty much Legate’s entire contibution to Day One: Counsel for The Defence in the Case of The Village vs Meneltelmacil. He is not the only one to take Menel’s side, of course, or to express suspicion of his attackers– cf. Zil, for example– but he devotes by far the greatest amount of time and energy to it. He brings out every point in Menel's favour, he expresses concern about Menel's (but not G55's) track record of being an easy lynch, he turns suspicion back on his attackers– he even, repeatedly, puts words in Menel’s mouth in order to make his statements look better! (I think he did that later on in the game as well.)

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?

EDIT:X'd with the man himself. EDIT2: typo