WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta - despite being pretty determined about Legate, suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves. Would like to see his opinion on this toDay now we know Legate is a wolf. Arguing more against Menel being a wolf. Points out we have slightly been assuming Menel innocent based on the feeling Inzil might have dreamt him.

Nerwen has pretty much answered this for me, but yeah, I was pretty clear yesterday that I thought Legate a wolf, ergo the last two wolves couldn't be you and Menel.

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...

To me, these both seem like you're saying the same thing - "Kath isn't a wolf because I don't think she'd wolf-on-wolf as much as Kathwolf would have had to have done in this situation."

Why?

Originally Posted by Nog

So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?)

Yes, that was it, and one of the reasons I eventually decided on her over Agan. And you're one to talk about me "wawering" (is that how they spell it in Finland? We spell it "waver" here.) when you said this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well Shasta, you have just made wawer a bit... as I just remembered that one of the things that made me suspect Sally the most was on D2 when she appeared to say she wishes to see G55 to simmer but not be lynched when she had just made her "wolf-slip" and when people acknowledged it she turned on her heels pretty fast.

Now wolves often are opportunists as well, but some of the weight of that suspicion clearly lightens when G55 turned out ordo...

I've decided not to quote Menel's every post, since Nerwen has already done most of that. I'll just talk about the ones that catch my eye. Like this one -

Originally Posted by Menel

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation.

I'll grant you Sally wasn't a lock until the end of the day, when Nog and I crossvoted (which you yourself have mentioned before.) However, since that is what killed off Sallywolf, I'm afraid I don't see why that's suspicious.

As for Legate - realistically, with all the suspicion on him, and given that the vote on him was entirely unanimous, he was pretty clearly "beyond salvation" from the get-go. So by that standard, Kath's vote doesn't look that much better than anyone's.

Therefore, you're using the same reason to clear Kath as you are to paint Nerwen and myself as suspicious, and you're not allowed to do that.

Originally Posted by Menel

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.

I'd been suspicious of G55 long before that. Granted, I was starting to think her more innocent because of how she was acting prior to the "slip", but I'd never been completely trusting of her.

Originally Posted by Menel

In failing to start a wolfwagon with Legate, she's basically proven her innocence.

This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later. It's not as if a lynch on anyone could have been assured as early in the day as they voted.

Originally Posted by Menel

Also, I notice it has been largely Nerwen making the attacks against me while Shasta hides out in her shadow and supports her from time to time. If there is a Menel-lynch today, Nerwen becomes top suspect tomorrow, and Shasta, due to more limited anti-Menel participation, will be left behind to lick his wolfish chops as the village continues toward its doom.

You notice that because I haven't been here today, and my pearl has been. I'm more than happy to attack you now that I'm here, though, since I'm becoming more and more certain you're a wolf with no way out.

Also, scrolling back up a second -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, what is going on here? At face value, this looks quite damning for Menel– and, which I suppose is a paradox, it's about the only thing that's stopping me voting him right now. If they’re wolves together, this is stunningly unsubtle playing on Legwolf’s part- and he's about the last person of whom you'd expect such a thing. But then, what else could it be? Wolf-fawning-on-innocent? Using one as a cover for something else? Or is it just a double-bluff?

Given that Menel hasn't played in three years, I don't think it's too unsubtle for a Legwolf to try avoid a Menelwolf lynch on the first day. That's assuming Legate cares about his pack, though.

Originally Posted by Menel

And in any case, it's not just you I'm suspicious of. As I've mentioned all Day, both you and Shasta are under suspicion, and I'm beginning to think Shasta might get my vote today considering what I've said above.

So, you're suspicious of me based entirely on the fact that Nerwen has been around more? Okay. It looks to me more like you've decided I'm a better alternate lynch, since my darling one has been around defending herself from your attacks.

Originally Posted by Menel

It just occurred to me that a wolf wouldn't attack an innocent this much if there was a good chance that innocent would get lynched. That would put the wolf under a lot of uncomfortable scrutiny the next Day.

It's incredibly hard to determine what a wolf would and would not do and be entirely certain of the answer. It's definitely not a good idea to be so iron-clad specific.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've barely played with Menel before. How likely is it that he would do all this as an innocent? I know he has a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about all I do know.

I've probably played less with him than you have, and remember less. I remember Nog mentioning something earlier about Menel having a reputation for attracting suspicion, but that's about it.

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me.

I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.


I think that's most of everything thus far.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is a point I've seen quite a bit, from both Nog and Nerwen as well. I personally don't buy it as an ironclad proof of her innocence. Wolves can have RL time constraints just as much as anyone else can, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a Kathwolf decided not to follow Legate's vote because of how they'd be linked later.

*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.

I'll say this once more - there's a difference between being "careful and quiet" and simply not being here. You'll notice that I'm almost never here except during the latter half of the day - that's because I'm in a different timezone than most of the rest of you (definitely on the part of Nog, Nerwen, and [b]Kath[/b) - I generally don't even get here until the rest of them have gone to bed.

Well, I suppose he's talking about yesterDay, not toDay. Even so, this–

Somebody who's quietly but consistently supporting an misguided innocent, though? That's another story.

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta has been more careful and more quiet in his suspicion of me. Staying low and providing support to the loud, misguided innocents sends up red flags where I'm concerned. He could avoid a lynch more easily by claiming he wasn't the one to blame.

–while a good tactic in principle, doesn't seem to describe your actions yesterDay particularly well, either.

EDIT:added quote.

[Nerwen]

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Also, it's a little odd to me that your two candidates for wolvery are Nerwen and Menel... and then you vote Nerwen largely because she was suspicious of Menel.

It's more than that– what she says in her vote-post is this:

Originally Posted by Kath

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

Which, to the best of my knowledge, bears absolutely no relation to what happened yesterDay. Well– that's Kath, though. When she's in a hurry, she'll quote and make analyses and all that, but quite frequently they seem to emanate from a slightly different plane of reality. I think she either skims, or just picks a random sample of posts to look at, or something. (Yes, I am still annoyed, Kath. Can't you tell?)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*coughing fit* Actually, my little turtledove, I believe I made that point myself already.

Fair enough, sun in splendour.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh! And it also doesn't fit at all well with Menel's previously displayed level of tactical knowledge, does it?

You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In any case, I work fairly early, so should probably be heading to bed soon. I'm feeling fairly good about Nog and Nerwen (as in, both Kath and Menel have raised more red flags recently than those two have) and so;

++Menel

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I only had time to skim through the posting since I left and will not probably have a second chance before the DL, so here it goes...

++ Meneltarmacil

Between the different scenarios it looks like the most promising one.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

You mean his tenuous grasp of wolf-on-wolf voting? Or something else?

That, and the general "Captain Obvious" statements.

Anyway. I have been looking through the other Days, and haven't seen any pressing reason *not* to lynch Menel now. Obviously, if he turns out innocent, I'll need to take a closer look toMorrow (assuming I'm still alive).

++Menel

There. Now you're dead. And if you're innocent after all– well, I'm sorry, but what can I say? You pretty much went and stuck your head in the noose toDay and yesterDay– I don't know how else to put it.

Note: As I go to post this, I see Nog just voted.