WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Well, that's something I got right: I knew Kath would be alive regardless. Is it her, then, or has my jewel let her live, in hopes of profiting by her early voting + suspicion of me?

I'll have to think.

[Nerwen]

Back again.

I'd say it points more to Shasta, insofar as leaving Kath and me alive would definitely be a good move for a Shastawolf, whereas I'm not sure a Kathwolf would have wanted to eat Nogrod last Night. Or at least, she'd be in quite a dilemma, wouldn't she? He'd be unlikely to attract votes toDay– but also unlikely to vote *her*.

I'll not be voting yet of course.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nog, hmm? A fairly logical choice, I suppose, considering the Legate/Sally combo of votes from a few days ago.

I suppose the question now is, who profits more from a Nog-death? Given the conversation and agreement about how Kath wasn't as clear as people thought she was, a Nerwolf would make sense.

On the other hand, it is the last day. Killing Nog would be a relatively bold ploy, to be sure, but if it is Kathwolf then it's working beautifully thus far, given what my heart has posted already. I just need to decide which is more likely.

[Kath]

Dilemma. Do I vote Nerwen because she was so rude yesterDay and decide in response that I won't actually bother even trying? Or do I put the limited amount of time I have into attempting to find a wolf? Really, really tempted to go with the former after reading the thread since I left. Right now wouldn't actually care if meant the villagers lost.

Therefore I'm taking an hour away.

[Kath]

Menel - three posts:
1) As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

2) I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

3) If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

Tell me again how I misinterpreted that to end up with Menel first seeming to end up without any third wolf and then ended up with suspicion of Shasta and Nerwen.

Later he says:
My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

I had ignored these posts as they seemed entirely based on responses to supposition brought up by you. Menel was replying to possibilities rather than stating his actual suspicions. Perhaps less so with the first one but hey I know I'm innocent.

Shasta:
For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.
--> suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves
(Emphasis mine. To me this is him suggesting you might be right. It isn't going 'Woah what? You're dead wrong missy' which would be suggesting you were wrong.)

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?
--> Arguing more against Menel being a wolf.

And I'm done defending. Just wanted to show you where my 'factually incorrect' information is coming from.

After that massive time-waste I'll go look at the actual thread now.

[Kath]

Yeah I will also learn how to quote posts properly one day too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After re-reading the thread, I found something of interest.

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

This game makes my head hurt.