WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Nog, hmm? A fairly logical choice, I suppose, considering the Legate/Sally combo of votes from a few days ago.

I suppose the question now is, who profits more from a Nog-death? Given the conversation and agreement about how Kath wasn't as clear as people thought she was, a Nerwolf would make sense.

On the other hand, it is the last day. Killing Nog would be a relatively bold ploy, to be sure, but if it is Kathwolf then it's working beautifully thus far, given what my heart has posted already. I just need to decide which is more likely.

[Kath]

Dilemma. Do I vote Nerwen because she was so rude yesterDay and decide in response that I won't actually bother even trying? Or do I put the limited amount of time I have into attempting to find a wolf? Really, really tempted to go with the former after reading the thread since I left. Right now wouldn't actually care if meant the villagers lost.

Therefore I'm taking an hour away.

[Kath]

Menel - three posts:
1) As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

2) I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

3) If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

Tell me again how I misinterpreted that to end up with Menel first seeming to end up without any third wolf and then ended up with suspicion of Shasta and Nerwen.

Later he says:
My apologies. I honestly cannot remember a wolf ever doing this.

Although I have been away from the site for three years, and there is probably a lot I have missed.

I suppose, then, that I will have to keep Kath as a possible wolf even if Legate is innocent.

Perhaps. Although, the way you put it, that would eliminate you and make Shasta the wolf.

I had ignored these posts as they seemed entirely based on responses to supposition brought up by you. Menel was replying to possibilities rather than stating his actual suspicions. Perhaps less so with the first one but hey I know I'm innocent.

Shasta:
For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.
--> suggests Nerwen might be right about Kath and Menel being the last wolves
(Emphasis mine. To me this is him suggesting you might be right. It isn't going 'Woah what? You're dead wrong missy' which would be suggesting you were wrong.)

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?
--> Arguing more against Menel being a wolf.

And I'm done defending. Just wanted to show you where my 'factually incorrect' information is coming from.

After that massive time-waste I'll go look at the actual thread now.

[Kath]

Yeah I will also learn how to quote posts properly one day too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

After re-reading the thread, I found something of interest.

If the wolf is Kath, then Sally's vote the day she died doesn't make sense - she would have known that she was the last wolf voting, therefore she couldn't have expected any last-minute help to lynch Nogrod, so why would she vote him? This scenario makes more sense if Sally was hoping for some help from Nerwolf.

However, the counterpoint to that is, Nog was also one of the last to vote, and obviously wasn't going to vote himself - and was pretty obviously going to vote Sally - so on the surface it doesn't look like there was much point in Sally voting Nog either way. It's possible she was just going for the misdirection factor, though I don't know how likely it is she voted specifically to implicate Nerwen. Probably not too likely.

This game makes my head hurt.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, this is a slow day. I have to go to work, but I'll be back in a few hours.

[Kath]

Shasta:
Day 1 - thinks it unlikely Menel would ask questions he could have got answered by wolf-mates during the Night. Thinks the wolves would benefit from keeping attention off the Cobbler - this was continuing the earlier debate. Was suspicious of Pitch for questioning the conversation around the Cobbler. Says G55 was the third to throw suspicion at Menel - well technically yes but as she cross posted with Nerwen they were joint second really and so equally pingy for that. Didn't like Agan's hypocritical attitude toward talking about the Cobbler. Wonders why Inzil wasn't hounded for captain obvious statements. Good point about voting Pitch despite saying his vote was reasonable. Bad point about backing off Menel - based on assumption entirely from Shasta.
Vote: G55

Day 2 - points out that sally blew G55's 'savage blow' comment into something much bigger. sally is in no danger at this point so a Shasta-wolf has nothing to lose by point this out. Thinks G55 looks innocent. Questions my stupid Pitch moment. You were following my train of thought I'm afraid - thought could be wolf buddies, then thought that it was unlikely because G55 had voted for him ... then realised he was dead ... Questions about Nog, Menel and Lommy. Suspicious of sally. This could begin a build up to later throwing sally to the lynch mob. At the end of the post before the list post he has G55 down as being innocent. In the next post he says after Nog catching the last slip she now looks suspicious. But there is no mention of cross posting and Nog had not posted in between. This is odd.
Vote: G55

Day 3 - points out that sally fits Menel's wolf description. Continuing build up of suspicion to avoid it himself? Good forward planning if so! Points out he voted for G55 the Day before as well so he actually had wanted to lynch G55. Points out that either Legate or Kath must have been a wolf for the wolves not to jump on an early vote. Correct as it turns out. Despite earlier point sally out himself is now reluctant to agree that she is suspicious given she has been around so little. Seriously stalled at the end. I know he gave an explanation but he pushed and pushed that deadline with 'ooh but wait' comments.
Vote: sally (cross-posting with Nog on the deadline)

Day 4 - explains that he'd suddenly thought sally was the Ranger. Suspicion of Menel as he may have been coasting under the radar and because he appeared to leave himself as the third wolf in his post.
Vote: Legate

Day 5 - thinks Menel is picking on him because he wasn't around to defend himself. Shasta says I can't be considered innocent just because I didn't follow Legate's vote. I entirely disagree here. Had I been a wolf and knew we could have won the game this Day I would have.
Vote: Menel (looks like I would have been second choice)

Nerwen:
Day 1 - second person who says Menel is stating the obvious but perhaps this is due to not having played in a while. Explains Agan's use of 'her' to G55. Points out to Inzil that G55 had cross posted with her - thus two consecutive complaints about Menel. Mentions Menel again, saying he repeated his statements and so got more attention for it than Inzil. Still questions G55's confusion about Agan.
No vote.

Day 2 - So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss. Not a fan of this comment as previously mentioned. Asks why G55 doesn't think the wolves saw Inzil as the Seer. Questions G55 a lot over a comment which looks fairly clear. G55 thought the wolves hadn't definitely determined that Inzil was the Seer, but rather thought he'd be a good kill who might happen to be the Seer. Catches G55 saying 'Galwolf'. This did look pretty damning at the time, though Nerwen is still leaving an out. Says Nog is high on her list of wolf suspects toDay - despite saying nothing about him since that first comment. Reluctantly says sally could be the Cobbler, or Lommy might be.
Vote: G55

Day 3: Can't figure out why we're 'doomed'. If a wolf ought to have a good grasp of the numbers so makes sense. Points out sally has misunderstood Nog. Didn't like Shasta or G55's 'remove the distraction' theory. I kind of agree but at the same time we'd have had another full Day of it if G55 hadn't been lynched. Questions Nog - without giving an opinion. Pooh-poohs Agan's sally suspicion. Defends herself against me. Now explains Nog suspicion - basically that he explained himself too many times. At the time, maybe, but Nog is particularly verbose and circular. Questions Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes. Says Shasta, Legate and sally could be the wolves as they hadn't wanted to vote G55 until sally was an option. Totally spot on or giving two out of three?
Votes: sally (cross posted with Shasta - not Nog - knew she was lynching sally with this vote)

Day 4 - rescinds idea that Shasta hadn't wanted to vote G55, after Nog says he'll look at it. Points out the sally lynch wasn't a sure-fire thing. Says Legate being a wolf does not rule Kath out. Says Menel just repeats other people's points. Attacks Menel for not thinking about wolf-on-wolf votes.
Vote: Legate (with massive caveat)

Day 5 - dealt with all that jazz. Still opposes Menel's wolf-on-wolf/not wolf-on-wolf voting system thing. Wonders if Legate's massive defense of Menel makes him a wolf. No. I mean we know that now, but no anyway. Twisty turny Menel round in circles. He said he thought it was interesting that Shasta had remained suspicious to him the whole time, at this point only one person can be a wolf, he thinks then that it is Shasta, putting Nerwen in the clear. Why is this a problem to Nerwen? Aaah, am now understanding problems from yesterDay - didn't collate my end suspicions into 'not my brain' format. 'Largely led by Nerwen and Shasta' did not mean I thought both were wolves - indeed, how could they be? It should be been followed by 'and of the two I think Nerwen is the wolf doing this and Shasta less likely to be'.
Vote: Menel (again with the caveat)

Posting. Reading.

[Kath]

Nerwen has ripped into those lynchees who were innocent. Those who were wolves got off pretty lightly in comparison. G55 and Menel got hounded. sally and Legate didn't.