ARDA CUP Football 2012

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group stage is finally over, and, while two teams from each group continue their quest for glory, two teams are left behind to wonder where they went wrong. TENT and ArdaCup.com's joint analysis would break down the Group G teams who failed to go further, and look at their bright spots, where they would need to improve, and what they could do to improve.

Anfauglith

What They Got Right:
Conceding two to Nargothrond was not a shame; Gwindor gave trouble to every left back he met, including AC Beleriand’s Fingolfin. And Barahir’s shot was just, well, too good, and a bit too lucky. But Anfauglith shut Doriath’s dynamic front line out, and conceded just one goal to powerhouse AC Beleriand (although we admit that they would have probably conceded more had the game been for real, but then Anfauglith would probably have scored, too.) So their defence is fine, three goals against in three games against highly-rated offensive teams.

Furthermore, Thuringwethil was a pleasant surprise, scoring two goals and an assist in three games despite the supposed lack of support. She is the perfect lone forward for a counterattacking team; her team was always on the short end of possession, but she has been efficient with her time on the ball.

What They Got Wrong:
Anfauglith’s midfield was a bundle of energy, pressing well and disrupting the opposing midfield’s rhythm. However they were generally clueless on offence—Galdor and Gundor were the only names they had on the score sheet. So their nominal wingers were the only ones in their midfield who had some attacking instincts. If they were to break down teams who sat deeper against them, they would need more from the most populous part of their line-up.

What Can They Do:
Anfauglith lost $33 million this season, and, while Morgoth and Sauron can absorb the losses, the Houses of Edain can ill afford another losing season. Now, Anfauglith really should have advanced to the knockout round due to their head-to-head record against Doriath, but even had they advanced, they would still find it difficult to get past Eriador. Clearly they could no longer return to their 2011 form, which featured big (and expensive) names, but an improvement in their attack, even at the expense of their back line, would help them go a long way.

Quotes:
Thuringwethil: I know many are bitter about how we lost the second seed to Doriath, but it didn’t have to come down to goals scored. We should have beat Nargothrond; their defence was weak, and one more attacker would have made a lot of difference against them. We should have scored more against Doriath; Melian’s a good defender, but she’s only one player, and another brown shirt in their penalty box would have overloaded her. One more offensive-minded player on our side would have brought us out of our group.

Nargothrond

What They Got Right:
Nargothrond forwards had two hat-tricks in the friendlies, Gwindor was a terror of the opposition left flank, and Finrod had three goals and an assist in the group stage. So it’s easy to see that their strong point is their offence.

What They Got Wrong:
But is it, though? Many notice the five goals AC Beleriand put past them, but only a few see that they scored just one in return. And to think they had a better match-up against AC Beleriand’s defence: Glaurung vs Rochallor and Imlach. When one compares that to his markers vs Anfauglith (Balrog #4 and Borlach) and vs Doriath (Melian and Galathil), then one would see that he should have overpowered the two non-Maiar centre backs. But he didn’t even get a single goal against them. Overall, the Father of Dragons had a bad tournament, with only a goal and an assist to his name in three games.

The worst part of Nargothrond, however, was their shambolic defence. They failed to contain Thuringwethil, Fëanor, Beren, and Mablung. Now, very few can fault their performance against the Fiery Boot, but how about Thuringwethil running circles around them? Mablung overpowering and out-finessing them?

Their midfield could have helped them out, sitting deeper and holding a disciplined position in front of them. And it helped—during the first half of their game against AC Beleriand, they allowed only one goal. But when Nargothrond got impatient with breaking down Fingolfin’s defence and ordered their midfield forward, disaster followed.

What Can They Do:
The good news is that Nargothrond is a wealthy realm, able to absorb their loss this year (-$35 million), but their citizens have to be tired of dropping out so early in the tournament, left behind by their neighbours Doriath and Gondolin. They need better defenders, clearly, or at least one who could act as a leader—notice how Melian turned her woeful defenders (in the friendlies) to decent ones (in the group stage). A better goalkeeper, too—Bëor is obviously out of his depth, and he seems to be getting worse and worse the more they field him as shot stopper. 2010 Arda Cup-winning goalie Huor is a free agent, and, while his services would not come cheap, it’s cheaper than having them lose embarrassingly in 2013.

Quotes:
Finrod: We were unlucky to have faced four players on their good day. And we managed to snatch a draw despite Thuringwethil’s double. I have confidence in most of my players, though we would be taking less next year, which is what we deserve for losing. But we’ll have a look at our options, like who can play better at certain positions that we need to address. This team will be better come next year, I promise you that.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The tournament has lost half its teams again in the first round of the knockout stages. Favourites displayed strong showing, but some surprise names dropped out just after the initial hurdle. In this edition of the tactical review, we take a look at the playoff runs of Beleriand teams Doriath and Gondolin. Again, we look at their bright points, dark spots, and their possible actions for 2013.

Doriath

What They Got Right:
For a team hit hardest by the hard salary cap imposed this year, Doriath has managed to go far--surprisingly far, if you consider what the media had said about them. They were placed in a group with teams that had a defence stronger than theirs (Anfauglith), an attack stronger than theirs (Nargothrond), and a team just plain stronger than theirs (AC Beleriand), and still they managed to advance to the round of sixteen. How did they do it?

Simple: they have the right pieces at the right places, and they knew how to use them. Melian was the core of their defence--it wouldn't be a stretch to say the she was their defence. Holding Fëanor, Thuringwethil, and Glaurung to one goal each was a feat very few others could accomplish. In fact, since Fëanor's goal against Doriath was from the penalty spot, and Thuringwethil's goal came after Melian switched to left back, the only goal from open game that she conceded to those centre-forwards was Glaurung's.

Furthermore, they were a team of excellent passers from player #1 to #11, and it showed in whatever strategy they chose to play, be it possession or counter-attacking. Daeron in particular was intelligent in his passing, distributing efficiently to either wing. And speaking of wings, their fluid attacking trio of Mablung, Beleg, and Lúthien were superb in their interplay, compensating for their lack of a single striker who broke defences down single-handedly.

What They Got Wrong:
Unfortunately they ran into teams that had superior numbers in the midfield, and we were never able to see their passing game at its full power. Normally a team packing the midfield could be broken on the flanks, but this fact merely exposes a key Doriath weakness: their best centre-back (the one that kept the opponent's star scorer quiet) was also their best fullback (the one who helped in the attack with runs from very deep). Melian was asked to do too much in the back line--help contain the opponent's attack while helping her midfield maintain possession. We saw only one chance she created in her interplay with left winger Lúthien, the Mablung miss against Anfauglith. She could have focused on the wings had she a goalkeeper she could trust, but unfortunately Dior was not the one. A save rate of a little below 70%, to the tune of 8 goals allowed, would not do for a team who didn't have a suffocating defence, or a go-to scorer to claw back the deficit.

What Can They Do:
In making it to the bracket stage, they lost only $4 million, a sum they could easily make up by trimming some of their salaries. Furthermore, Elu Thingol might return to his home team, considering what he said after Wilderland's loss, and his height and power would help them either in the front or the back. However, their two wingers performed well enough this year (Lúthien's actual stat notwithstanding, she produced more chances than any other Doriath player) that the risk of them being lured by other Beleriand teams exists--especially Beleg, considering his long-standing partnership with Túrin.

Quotes:
Daeron: I think we surprised a lot of people with what we did this year. Hardly anyone counted on us to get out of our group, but we made it, and we came close to forcing Eriador to a shoot-out, even. Next year, with one or two more pieces, I believe we could go further.

Gondolin

What They Got Right:
No-one doubted what Gothmog and Maeglin can do, which is to score. After taking a friendly game to adjust, they did exactly that, accounting for fourteen of their team's sixteen goals in eight games, and assisting in the two others. Maeglin was a walking highlights reel, combining his father's craftsmanship with his mother's Finwëan grace and power. And Gothmog was the terror of centre-backs with his size and speed.

Their midfield was also useful on attack: Meleth shared the ball efficiently, Elemmakil sent quality crosses into the box for target-man Gothmog, and Duilin was a gem as attacking midfielder. He played killer balls into the box for the strikers and made late runs after the teams have focused on their intimidating forward duo.

What They Got Wrong:
For every goal they scored, however, it seemed that they conceded one in return (they had seven goals for and against). Their defence allowed almost fourteen shots per game. This would not have been a problem had Rog been in top form, but sadly he has never quite returned to his 2010 form (despite his slight improvement from his performance last year):

Rog's save rate:
2010: 85.19% (vs Ar-Pharazôn, Phantom, Túrin, Maeglin)
2011: 61.11% (vs Eönwe, Varda, Arien, Míriel, Nerdanel)
2012: 68.18% (vs Fingon, Glorfindel, Witch-king, Fëanor, Eöl)

What Can They Do:
A loss of $3 million is easy enough for the Hidden Realm to handle. Besides, Gondolin is a realm of great footballing talent (they have the Cup to prove it), so even if they lose one of their star forwards in the off-season, they surely have someone who could step up. They would need more help for their back line, however, and perhaps on goal, too, unless they trust the blacksmith to shake out of whatever funk he had sunk into. A small upgrade in midfield would also help--their holder Salgant was exposed by AC Beleriand's midfield for his lack of positional awareness, when he was supposed to be the one plugging the holes in their defence.

Quotes:
Maeglin: Despite the initial hiccup, and that was against Real Valinor, our team has done well enough for something that was built almost on the fly. We have other talents to draw from that are now playing in other teams, so we'll eventually find the pieces we need to go further into the tournament.