Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

I find the last sentence amusing. I actually have solved one today, with what seems like 100 other things going on.

I'm glad to see the focus on Boro has eased somewhat. Yes, it was important to take a look at what might have made him a target, but that only takes us so far.
It's only useful in ferreting out baddies if he said something that we can narrow down as alarming to one in particular. Otherwise, they went after him for A. Looking like Elendil; or B. Looking like a Gifted.

Anyway, I think YesterDay's votes are more helpful. Also, just skimming the last few hours, I think people have some interesting points about Pom. Some of her suspicions look rather forced.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[the phantom]

As soon as I get back I'll do a look at the voting yesterday and give impressions...

[satansaloser2005]

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game.

[the phantom]

Okay, general thoughts on voting alone. First, the votes-

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie
Brin ++ Eomer (2)
Sally ++ Eomer (3)
Phantom ++ Lottie (2)
Steve ++ Eomer (4)

DID NOT VOTE
Nerwen
Manwe

Okay, when I write down some basic assumptions regarding the vote, I find most of them are ridiculously obvious (which in itself says something perhaps). But I'll say them anyway just so you see the evolution of my thinking.

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

So, given the above three observations, we are left with three basic hypotheses-

1) If Steve is then Morsul is.
2) If Sally is then Inzil is.
3) If Inzil and/or Sally is then Lottie is.

Now obviously a single day of voting can hardly be deemed overwhelming evidence, particularly with Manwe and Nerwen not voting at all (they could both be KMs thus rendering all theories void). But still- we have to start forming theories somewhere.

I'm off to work, but I'll be rereading Day 1 and today if at all possible with those potential links in mind and see if anything jumps out and sabotages them or corroborates them....

(Should be able to check in periodically from work, and I'll be off in time to vote, no worries there.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

Originally Posted by the phantom

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Self-preservation is equally an interest of baddies. Just saying.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

It's also possible that none of the KM's were seriously in trouble; just that Eomer got a vote or two from them because he was in peril and innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

.

Phantom said this:
Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling

EDITX'ed with Sally