Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Morsul the Dark]

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Morsul

#6 - naive banter; however, right off the bat, we find this -

Originally Posted by Morsul

Moving along:

Does fourth make me the nonexistent CC?

We have 3King's Men right?

I'm grabbing at straws here, I realize that, but it's just weird to me that Morsul refers to the CC as "nonexistent" here (meaning he knows G55 took it out) but asks for clarification on the number of baddies... which ought to have been in the exact same place as the CC-removal.

#17 - compliments phantom.

#78 - posts list of three, agrees with "phantom's dream plan" but thinks revealing Isildur is a bad idea.

#112 - worried about Sally - "possible bandwagoning" - and Nerwen - "too clean" - while thinking Eonwe is "a bit fishy but not vote worthy." Votes Sally.

#124 - defends his vote a bit, compliments phantom again, and defends his double checking of the baddie numbers (which is still odd to me).

#141 - explains his real reason for voting Sally - he thought Eomer was Erendil, and Zil the dreamer that saw Sally's guilt. Sally has actually already said most of what needs to be said regarding this. It doesn't really hold up if one looks at it too close, but again, Morsul thinks like this all the time.

#144 - confused by Lottie a bit. Mentions Boro could have been the dreamer.

#154 - banter, obviousness, and phantom.

#163 - obviousness. Thinks probably only one KM voted for Eomer in response to Inzil.

#171 - gets it wrong regarding if Boro was the N1 dreamer.

#173 - obviousness.

#176 - nothing useful.

#179 - grr.

#182 - continues speculating as to which Gifted Boro was.

#199 - continues being Morsul.

#205 - speculates about Phantom's day 1 vote.

#207 - corrects Pom.

#210 - clarification, obviousness, and a Lottie-ism.

#213 - still thinks Nerwen is "too clean".

#216 - obviousness.

#219 - is Morsul, and thus confusingly, arbitrarily contrary. Sally's suspicions of him are better, and Pom defending him is suspicious.

#228 - questions Inzil about having missed where Phantom dreamed Brinn.

#231 - doesn't know who to vote for. Sally "seems innocent", Pom suspicious, but Lottie makes a good point relating to Pom's innocence.


Conclusions -

It's always hard for me to say anything about Morsul. He's almost always self-deprecatingly wrong, but it's practically impossible to tell how much of that is intentional (read: wolvish) and how much of that is just typical Morsul.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I don't I'm assuming If Pom is Evil Sally is innocent if Pom is innocetn I think Sally is evil.

Sorry, I thought it was clear it was hypothetical.

I just think Sally is putting too much effort into suspecting me as a KM to be one. I tend to end up lynching myself at some point so I don't think she'd need that much effort to frame me

Ah! I'm sorry, I read your post wrong. Also, I don't think putting effort into formulating arguments against someone is ever a waste of time - even if they do draw suspicion like nothing else. After all, even if you are easy to lynch, Sally can't just vote for you without putting forward an argument and considering the issue carefully. You are easy to lynch, but that doesn't mean the people doing the lynching can afford to be complacent about it. If the lynchers are innocent, they'd better have a good reason for voting for you - actual reasons, not just 'he seems furry' - and if they're KM, they have to at least look like they've got reasons. Throwing away a vote on you is a sure sign of not really caring about the lynch - or just trying to lynch someone, anyone, who isn't a packmate.

All that goes to say, I don't suspect Sally for how much effort she's putting in. If anything, it makes her look more innocent to me.

EDIT: xed since Morsul

[satansaloser2005]

There's something you've forgotten, Phantom, dear, or at least something missing from your mathulations. In the event of Shasta's death, the role of the next gifted on the list is revealed to a random ordo. Thus, if Shasta dies, Isildur (or, if we're super lucky, Elendil, though I hold no hope for that) will be revealed to one of the innocents. So our future situation is in truth better than you describe it. Well, not for Shasta, I suppose....

[the phantom]

Okay, so going off my master list from yesterday here's the six people I came into the day slightly more willing to vote for-
Morsul, Lottie, Steve, Sally, Inzil, Nerwen

To go with my earlier voting hypotheses- Inzil and Sally receive elevation and Morsul, Lottie, and Steve receive slight elevation. Conveniently all 5 rank in my bottom 6 from yesterday.

That's either very encouraging or very worrisome, in that there is a clearly paved road leading to these five people. If the non-voters Manwe and Nerwen are the culprits (joining with Pom) then I'd say we're in trouble.

What do people think of reactions early today to various theories on what Boro was and why he was killed? That's what I'm looking at currently- post to come....

[Mänwe]

Sally's was rather dramatic..and it took her about 40 minutes to calm down and then post making light of the situation.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

There's something you've forgotten, Phantom, dear, or at least something missing from your mathulations. In the event of Shasta's death, the role of the next gifted on the list is revealed to a random ordo.

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

...But Lottie, what if they're both KMs?

EDIT:X'd with phantom.

[Loslote]

Fair point. Ah, well, it was nice to think about in theory. :/

[the phantom]

Leaving for home, finally. I'll finish up my more intriguing & possibly useful post when I get there...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That fact is meaningless in the scheme of things as honestly the Gifteds are just going to reveal anyway, so that knowledge is unlikely to be especially useful. If the Gifted does a halfway decent job of revealing (referencing a planted code in their Day 1 posts etc.) then they'll be as good as known anyway, and the fact that one little Ordo believes them 100% instead of 95% isn't going to tip anything. What would tip things on a major scale is the KMs getting blocked by Anarion tonight, hence this is the last day for our friendly neighborhood Amandil.

Fair enough. I was just thinking of the slight advantage of having, for instance, Agan know that Nog is Isildur. If Agan reveals it rather than Nog doing it himself, then we know (or rather, can likely conclude) we can trust both of them, rather than just the one. But yes, you're correct, and I'm certainly not saying I want Shasta killed. I don't want the mean men to hurt my favorite psychic.

EDIT: x'd since the quoted Phantom

[the phantom]

That's true to an extent, Lottie- but only if said Ordo can bury some sort of "X is Isildur/Anarion" code in their posts to point back to, because they can't ever know at what point Isildur/Anarion actually wants them to step out and reveal them and the Ordo would probably be reluctant. And there's the added layer of one of the KMs successfully doing it as a bluff. If I was a KM without a doubt I'd have a list of top Gifted prospects and at this point it'd be very small for each role. So they just bury a code and then when Isildur/Anarion outs they point to it and *bang* they're a "proven" Ordo. Then the other Ordo steps up & says "no you're not" and then it's a fight that the KMs are more likely to win given their automatic voting loyalty block.

But anyway, still working on a reactions post from earlier today....

[the phantom]

Early day reactions-

Originally Posted by Morsul

if Shasta dreamed Boro and boro was killed that means the KM anticipated Elendil's dream which in turn means they's is clever and I don't like clever wolves/KM they're tricky

Complimenting himself? It reads like it...

Originally Posted by Inzil

The assumption of failure here and accompanying "dismay" looks a bit odd. (speaking of Morsul)

I agree to this to an extent. I already said what I found suspicious about him yesterday, and his whole manner of saying things today is striking me the same way. But it's so darn consistent that I'm beginning to wonder if it's his style. In other words, I'm darn suspicious of Morsul, but simultaneously I worry that I could be perfectly backwards due to lack of familiarity.

Not to mention his formulations for yesterday's vote are in fact wrong (why he would make the vote choice given his assumption, as Sally pointed out I believe) and yet in the moment yesterday it's believable that he'd make a hasty gut-reaction mistake, where as if he is a KM he might've come up with a more logically sound reasoning in order to look better. Hmm.... I'm very undecided with Morsul. I think I'm leaning towards not voting for him today. At least if he stays alive longer I'll get to know him better for the future perhaps.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I find it difficult to see a Borondil putting himself out like that on Day One, whether accidentally or with intent. I like to think we still have Elendil with us.

This is what a KM would say if they were in fact not gunning for Elendil and yet being told that Boro clearly looked like Elendil. In other words, injured pride defending the kill choice.

Near the beginning when I wasn't entirely forthcoming with my Boro kill explanation this was said-

Originally Posted by Lottie

If it's something that'll help understand where we're at and what's going on, would you mind explaining it a bit for me?

Now it makes sense to request that I explain myself. Innocents want useful info naturally. But the fact that she qualified it by saying "Tell me IF it'd be useful to the village" seems somewhat fishy, as if she's a KM wanting a more accurate picture of how good her kill was, but she obviously can't request in that format thus she requests that I illuminate the situation "if it's for the good of the village". Interesting...

Now Sally- she jumps into examining people and doesn't get into the Boro issue much, which is a bit curious seeing how momentous it is. But of course for a KM the most important issue heading into today is setting up another innocent lynch, so really the Boro thing is just a big distraction.

There is much to think about...

[the phantom]

I do not want to see the following lynched under any circumstance-
Shasta
Phantom
Brin

A pass for today-
Morsul
Steve

I haven't looked at these enough to be ready to consider them-
Manwe
Pom
Nerwen

I'd like to see these folks on the lynching block to see what arguments emerge and to see who receives backing from different folks etc.-
Sally
Lottie
Inzil

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's far more important than that! If Isildur waits to reveal himself until after Amandil's death, we have a way of proving that an Ordo is who she or he says they are. The Ordo says, "I was told [x] is Isildur." Isildur says, "that's correct." We know that the Ordo is, in fact, an Ordo.

Just to clarify - the ordo would not know that "X is Isildur", s/he would know that "X is gifted".

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Just to clarify - the ordo would not know that "X is Isildur", s/he would know that "X is gifted".

True, but the rules specify that the next living gifted in line is revealed. Thus, it would be Isildur who would be made known, even though the PM would not specify the role directly. Unless of course we're all wrong about Boro being the revealer, which would be a nice surprise indeed.

[Morsul the Dark]

Well I think I'll vote now if only to get the ball rolling on some discussion.

I think Pom was defending me from what frankly seem to be legitimate(if incorrect) points, a bit too strongly. SO either he's evil and trying to coerse me into voting Sally and get a wagon going or maybe it's the old wolf on wolf trick, I doubt that this early though. I'm thinking either one or the other is evil. As I've said before the amount of work Sally's spent on her observations of me seems too much hassle to try to frame me, so I think I'll vote Pom over her.

++POM

Edit: x'ed since moddess

[the phantom]

Okay, so after reading more I'm also going to pass Pom into the free pass category (meaning I'd lynch someone else in an attempt to rescue them for the time being). Thus-

You will not vote for
Phantom
Shasta
Brin

You ought not vote for
Morsul
Steve
Pom

I'd rather you not vote for
Manwe
Nerwen

On trial
Sally
Lottie
Inzil

[Mänwe]

Eonwe, joins the day after the Shasta reveal.

#50 states whats been agreed and that there are drawbacks to each of the options and doesn't know which is best.

#64 asking for clarification on what option has been chosen- seems a little surprised at the choice that gives the greatest amount of information to the village.

#65 no real content

#68 states he's been thinking about the phantom '3 list' idea and emphasizes the need for random lists.

#72 lists the pros and cons to the options discussed..appearing helpful(?). submits his own suggestion that should a KM be revealed in a dream that they're revealed immediately without use of the list. I think that would go without saying, the village can play the percentage.

#83 is quick to defend himself from Inzil's accusation which turns out to be a misunderstanding.

#95 questions the wisdom of a night one dream reveal. Again perhaps showing like Inzil had, a slight dislike of the open reveal idea.

#111 states he thinks Eomer and Sally are iffy, he's mixed feelings about boro and Inzil and thinks Pom and Phantom are innocent. An early declare of innocence for Pom who comes under fire later in the day. At this moment most people believed phantom to be innocent so nothing there.

#113 nothing

#127 agrees with Brinn that Eomer's flip flop on vote was suspicious but reiterates he's not keen on Inzil still.

#134 votes Eomer at the last minute. He had two votes against him but wasn't particularly vocal in calling anyone out about them. ??

#200 nothing- post lost to a power cut

#202 points out he thinks Boro was Amandil (if i read that post right) but by this stage Shasta had already revealed..

#203 defends his Day 1 choice of Eomer to Pom- his reasoning matching the others who voted Eomer also.

#204 some private joke?

#267 overview of Pom- who he has said he believes to be innocent..and concludes that he doesn't see the suspicion surrounding Pom. So continuity is upheld from early Day 1 post saying feelings for Pom were good.

It's like a clearer more concise version of Morsul to me. I'm inclined to give him a miss for today over Morsul who is just that more.."washy".

x'd with all of the above:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not sure I like this post. It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.


Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

That is the flip side

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Inzil

I fail to see how Sally's suspicions of Pom are necessarily more justified than mine, when Pom voted for me YesterDay.

That was yesterDay. Pom doesn't even mention you toDay, so she apparently no longer sees you enough as a threat to discuss.

I'm just saying that when an innocent is accused by a player, they are more likely to have their opinion of said player influenced since they know that accusation is false. Of course a baddie could retaliate too, but I think they'd be more subtle about it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I agree to this to an extent. I already said what I found suspicious about him yesterday, and his whole manner of saying things today is striking me the same way. But it's so darn consistent that I'm beginning to wonder if it's his style. In other words, I'm darn suspicious of Morsul, but simultaneously I worry that I could be perfectly backwards due to lack of familiarity.

It *is* his style. Seriously, he always plays like this regardless of role, thats the trouble.

Originally Posted by phantom

Now Sally- she jumps into examining people and doesn't get into the Boro issue much, which is a bit curious seeing how momentous it is. But of course for a KM the most important issue heading into today is setting up another innocent lynch, so really the Boro thing is just a big distraction.

Ye-es... but you could just as easily say it would be in the KM's interest to keep the village talking about the Boro question instead of looking for wolves, couldn't you?

EDIT:X;d since self.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Near the beginning when I wasn't entirely forthcoming with my Boro kill explanation this was said-

Now it makes sense to request that I explain myself. Innocents want useful info naturally. But the fact that she qualified it by saying "Tell me IF it'd be useful to the village" seems somewhat fishy, as if she's a KM wanting a more accurate picture of how good her kill was, but she obviously can't request in that format thus she requests that I illuminate the situation "if it's for the good of the village". Interesting...

I'm terrible at hinting-type things. When I ask for clarification, I don't want to force a reveal of information that would be terrible if the wolves knew when they might not have noticed yet. Simple as that. I wanted to ask for the information without putting you in a too-tricky spot if you didn't want to share with everyone.

EDIT: xed since Manwe

[Mänwe]

I'm going to stick with what i've seen

++Morsul