Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 12-01-2012, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lottie

And yet, watching wolves scramble when they know we know one of their own is so enlightening. I'd prefer to hold off for a while, until I can at least get a sense of how the individual players react.

Well....

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

(still reading)

the phantom · 12-01-2012, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?

Hmmm... Yeah, it's tough to consider the angles here, as there's really no precedent.

Okay- pretend for a moment that Lottie is telling the truth. That means Elendil is still alive and knows precisely who a dream target was. We're getting down to the wire here so it's also possible both Elendil and the other Gifted might reveal, which would narrow the potential lynch field by a LOT, particularly with the Amandil info-holder removing himself from consideration.

So- I think what that means is that Lottie may be forced to tell the truth about her dream even if she's a KM, if you follow me. For if she lies, then it would rule out both her AND her dream as a KM, thus reducing the potential KMs in the village to 2 when in fact there are 3 still alive.

Thus KM-Lottie's only hope of survival would be to sell out her packmate and hope that when the final day arrives she is given the benefit of the doubt versus whoever the other candidate is.

Does that make sense?

In other words, I'm saying even if we choose to believe Lottie we aren't necessarily agreeing that she's innocent. I just feel that it's important to keep this in perspective.

the phantom · 12-01-2012, 11:57 PM

And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information.

Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil.

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

Inziladun · 12-02-2012, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

Finally home, and the bed is calling, but I'm very interested to see what happens in the mean time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

Yes indeed, if rather maddening!

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:38 AM

Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:43 AM

Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

(edit: remove extra word)

satansaloser2005 · 12-02-2012, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

*cough* Morsul. *cough*

satansaloser2005 · 12-01-2012, 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

Fair enough. Given ou rsize, I can certainly see the wisdom. I was mostly concerned about the effect it could have on Dun's reveal, but as long as Lottie reveals first (Dun can then reveal anytime he feels like thereafter), I'm not in a terrible rush.

EDIT: x'd with a Phantom

12-01-2012, 11:57 PM	#3
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information. Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil. And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on... (A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

12-02-2012, 12:38 AM	#5
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen. Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.) Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died. And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie. There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate. Let's walk through this... There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed. But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day). But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her. What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

12-02-2012, 12:43 AM	#6
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched. (edit: remove extra word) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 12-02-2012 at 12:55 AM.