Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[the phantom]

Let's do a bit of voting analysis, shall we?

Lottie- Day 1 she gives Steve his second vote, which put him in the lead. So it's somewhat probable that those two aren't a pair. Why toss a packmate under Day 1? On Day 2 she voted for Sallildur, but the innocent Pom was the other choice so she really couldn't have impacted the lynch in a positive way anyway. She's responsible for Nerwen's lynch.

Morsul- Day 1 he gave Sallildur her second vote, tying her with Steve. Now this would be a potential KM protecting a KM. On Day 2 he was the first vote for Pom. Day 3 he jumped the gun and voted Sally before we had any revelations.

Steve- Day 1 he provided the final bit of padding for Eomer. Day 2 he voted a bit late for Inzil which wouldn't have done anything even had it been timely. These votes are very safe.

Manwe- He didn't vote at all Day 1, and that is a very key missing piece to the puzzle, as Steve and Lottie both received votes that Day. That really really ticks me off. Day 2 he gave Morsul his first vote, and if I'm thinking correctly at the time it looked like the wind might blow that direction?

With the Steve-Lottie pair thrown out that leaves-

Steve and Manwe
Steve and Morsul
Manwe and Morsul
Manwe and Lottie
Morsul and Lottie

And now a few observations-

Steve and Morsul are the only two with a voting link.

Steve's votes are safe.

Manwe's votes are safe, plus he skipped.

Morsul's votes are the most flawed.

Lottie looks the cleanest after handing us Nerwen.

[Morsul the Dark]

Well, I didn't have a dream. I was hoping I would because I had a pet theory on that which would have allowed me to confirm three people leaving the KM.

But moving on,

Lottie- most trusted at the moment gave us Nerwen
Manwe- rather quiet fellow easily can avoid detection
Steve- Would have to be the second KM
myself- the always confusing and confused innocent thrown into the frey.

Here's a thought throwing it out there. should we assume Lottie is innocent.

That leaves:
Morsul
Manwe
Steve

and we hope Erendil is still alive: a plan would be lynch me, that'll confirm one innocent have erendil dream one of the other two that would show one of them evil or innocent thus proving the other evil. That'd leave you one KM which would then be process of elimination either Lottie or the surviving member)unless of course dreamed innocent.

That was sort of rantish did it come across clear?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well, I didn't have a dream. I was hoping I would because I had a pet theory on that which would have allowed me to confirm three people leaving the KM.

Um, there are two KMs left.

and we hope Erendil is still alive: a plan would be lynch me, that'll confirm one innocent have erendil dream one of the other two that would show one of them evil or innocent thus proving the other evil. That'd leave you one KM which would then be process of elimination either Lottie or the surviving member)unless of course dreamed innocent.

That was sort of rantish did it come across clear?

Wait. You...want us to lynch you?

Are we sure there isn't a cobbler in this game? Because this suggestion would go a long way towards us losing a Day.

I...don't know if you're an innocent who just actually thinks this is a good plan, or a KM throwing out something ridiculous that he knows will a) not be put into action and b) make him come off looking like he doesn't especially care if he's lynched (aka, innocent).

Either way, I believe a bit of head-desking is in order. And also sleep. Immediately. Good night.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Um, there are two KMs left.



Wait. You...want us to lynch you?

Are we sure there isn't a cobbler in this game? Because this suggestion would go a long way towards us losing a Day.

I...don't know if you're an innocent who just actually thinks this is a good plan, or a KM throwing out something ridiculous that he knows will a) not be put into action and b) make him come off looking like he doesn't especially care if he's lynched (aka, innocent).

Either way, I believe a bit of head-desking is in order. And also sleep. Immediately. Good night.

first off I meant confirm three roles out of five(which would leave the two km not in the mix)

Secondly, my plan works like this:

ratio: 5-2 we lynch me, ratio 4-2 night phase maybe 3-2 dream reveals km or innocent meaning you know your two km. then two lynches later a win.

Now of course we could go ahead and try for a KM today which would be preferable but I wentwith the plan that has the least amount of guess work involved(at least in my mind)

to your final point I have work in lessthan 6 hours so yeah sleep probably good.

[Brinniel]

Day 2

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think the circumstances require a Sally + Steve theory to explain them, no. It's always likely enough that a substantial bandwagon on an innocent includes a wolf. If I had to pick *one* of them right now, I think Steve would be my guess– though that's more a feeling at the moment (and, to be fair, I may be picking it up from other people– I need to read back over yesterDay).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It's like Steve is painting Pom as a sort of witch-hunt victim, which doesn't seem to me to be the case at all, actually.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So at the moment I can see myself voting for Lottie, Nerwen or Zil unless something drastic happens.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I basically concur with this, though I think I prefer Pom over Steve.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?

---

Thinking back at past Days, I considered that perhaps Nerwen's suspicion of Eonwe might make them less likely to be packmates. But that she decided to vote Pom over him at a time when Eonwe was in the running to get lynched is suspicious. Eonwe adding her in his list of lynch candidates also indicates the possible baddies suspecting each, but not enough to get them lynched tactic.

EDIT: X-ed with Morsul

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Morsul

ratio: 5-2 we lynch me, ratio 4-2 night phase maybe 3-2 dream reveals km or innocent meaning you know your two km. then two lynches later a win.

You are assuming Elendil's dream would go to an innocent which is not necessarily true.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You are assuming Elendil's dream would go to an innocent which is not necessarily true.

that's true just remembered Moddess changed the rule on that.

I stand by what I said yesterday Sally is innocent therefor I believe Manwe and Eonwe the We's are evil.

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm going to go through Lottie's posts tomorrow jst to make sure I'm satisfied of her innocence though frankly feeling really good about her.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Morsul

that's true just remembered Moddess changed the rule on that.

It's always been that way. The rule she changed is that the dream can't go to a known innocent.

[the phantom]

Connectivity problems.... If I don't show up again know that's why, and I'll go someplace in the morning to get online if I have to.

[Brinniel]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Morsul

The other person who worries me a bit is Nerwen not much suspicious but almost too clean. Besides which she has a record of flying under my radar...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, and there has been something a bit "off" about Morsul's posting since the start– at least, I was thinking about voting him even before I logged on again– only, I'm not sure about the wisdom of bringing another candidate into play *now*.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Morsul

So Nerwen posts a bit discussing Phantom's plan.

A while later posts her list then mentions suspicions on me but doesn't vote me because it'd be bad to bring another candidate forward.

Ends up not voting at all.

Not much to go on rather careful and with no vote nothing to really discuss about her. the play first day was very clean. As I've said before almost too clean.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for Morsul– we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is, but I don't think it's quite got to that point.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Morsul

So Pom was Ordo which means to me anyway Sally is evil Nerwen is evil and probably ZIl. Nerwen and Sally keep suspecting me but never vote me.

---

Again, there is the possibility of packmates suspecting each other, but not too much.

If Morsul is evil, Nerwen could've chosen to suspect him to distance herself from him, but attributed his suspiciousness to his typical playing style as a valid reason not to actually vote for him.

If Morsul is innocent, Nerwen could've been building up suspicion and perhaps was using the "we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is" comment to pave the way for an easy lynch further down the road.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's always been that way. The rule she changed is that the dream can't go to a known innocent.

I know but the rule change means that the dream would have to go to one of the three unknowns which would be mathematically Russian roulette I forgot the Known part, tha would've given you three candidates....

Actually clarification here please moddess if the gifted is in the four unknowns and one is eliminated can Erendil send her dream to one of the others because Erendil can safely assume the other two unknowns are KM, just have to pass that knowledge onto the rest of the group.

[the phantom]

MANWE

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 1

As for Isuldur's power, I would say not to reveal himself- if we already have Amandil making himself known we're giving away two roles! You are wanting a very transparent game aren't you tp?

So, is he genuinely concerned, or is he a worried KM? I mean think- if Isildur reveals Day 1 what are the KMs going to do about it? If they go to kill him then they're letting Elendil and his dreamer & dream target have another night alive and allowing the next dream to take place, and they won't be killing the more dangerous Anarion either. I'm thinking a KM might be unnerved by such an open game.

He does not vote Day 1, and everyone knows how a hate submarines. It would've been a golden opportunity to give us some info.

Day 2 he starts right off incriminating Morsul, and also paints Sally as innocent.

Later in the day he actually compares Steve and Morsul-

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 2

It's like a clearer more concise version of Morsul to me. I'm inclined to give him a miss for today over Morsul who is just that more.."washy".

In the end he indeed votes for Morsul.

On Day 3 he oddly brings up my Day 1 vote for Lottie a couple times (this is before Lottie revealed with her dream).

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

you voted Lottie first day phantom

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

well i've lumped the morsul, sally, pom and steve in the wishy washy. You voted Lottie first night, and i've not looked at her properly yet (or Nerwen) and will do later toDay so will be back later.

What was the point of bringing up the Day 1 vote? Was he trying to get me to renew my suspicion of her? Trying to justify suspicion of her by pointing out that a known innocent had suspected her at one point? I'm not sure what's going on there....

Later that day he clearly indicates suspicion of Steve & Morsul, as both of them are placed in his theoretical pack whether or not Lottie is lying.

Originally Posted by Manwe, Day 3

Pushing the spam aside, thank you Lottie for the revelation

Thanking Lottie for her dream I think strikes me as premature. How did he know she had dreamed? How did he know she wasn't a KM? How did he know Nerwen would be guilty?

I find that a bit suspicious.

CONCLUSION:

Given all of this in total a Manwe-Morsul pack seems increasingly unlikely. Manwe-Steve is possible, and so is Manwe-Lottie though perhaps slightly less likely.

[the phantom]

STEVE

Day 1 comes right in and says, "Phantom's probably good. But ya know- it's Phantom." Inconclusive in the end, and undecided on whether there should be a dream chain or a secret reveal. His pros & cons etc. are perfectly accurate of course.

He votes Eomer because he floated the idea of not voting at all Day 1. Two of our knowns voted that way too, so I guess I can't fault him for it.

On Day 2 says this of Pom-

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Her last two paragraphs here here might be defending Morsul a little too much. However, I don't think packmates would be that obvious.

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Overall, I'm not sure why people are attacking Pom so much. She may not look perfect, but she doesn't actually seem very suspicious to me at the moment (this could change depending on my reread of Morsul).

That's interesting. This is potentially a KM tying his fellow to an innocent- hence if Pom comes up innocent Morsul looks better or if Morsul comes up evil Pom looks worse.

Later he speaks generally favorably of Sally.

Then about Pom again (responding to Nerwen)-

Originally Posted by Steve, Day 2

Well, there did seem to be a sudden wave of Pom-suspicion when I started that post, so I was expecting to see something incriminating, but couldn't. More surprise than anything.

Now I kind of get this, as that's how I felt after reading Pom. There was so much flowing that direction that I felt I needed to do a thorough reading of her and frankly I found nothing, hence that post I made announcing she had a free pass from me.

He then says he's willing to vote for Lottie, Nerwen, or Inzil. Already one packmate on the list. I doubt he places two there, particularly given the dangerous position Lottie placed him in on Day 1.

He votes after the deadline then. Why? Why hold the vote so late? No KMs were at risk anyway, so I suppose it's not incriminating in that regard, but perplexing.

He arrives late to the party on Day 3, which is too bad, as it would've been nice to see something from him before the bombs began dropping. He understands why Lottie was chosen for the dream. Seems to accept the dream premise with fairly open arms.

CONCLUSION:

Beyond the fact that he appears to not be allied with a Lottie-KM, there isn't much to say of him considering the amount he's posted. His votes are safe and the main suspicious thing he does is tie Pom to Morsul, which makes for a likelier pack than Steve and Manwe I would say.