Arda Cup Football 2013

[the phantom]

Projecting the Groups and Host Sites
by Philip McPhantom, MESPN News

Since there is less roster turnover going on this year, many are already thinking ahead to the groupings for the squads. In past years the Arda Cup Draw Committee has paid more attention to balance, but in this competitive salary cap era a bit more seems to be resting on geography, hence the possibility of a "group of death".

But it's doubtful we'll see a group as rough as last year's Group D in this year's competition, partly because it would be tough to duplicate, and secondly because the Committee has made a statement regarding a wish to avoid grouping the same teams year in and year out.

So, with that in mind, and also with an eye towards which sites are likely to host, we can make some educated guesses as to the groups this year. And let's face it- our favorite thing about the pre-season is making wild predictions and then patting ourselves on the back for the few we get right!

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Let's start with what we know-

Eru has stated that he wants to see the final round of group games played simultaneously (like Group C at Moria last year, playing one game underground and the other in the dale). So any site selected for group play must be relatively near a secondary site good enough to host a third round game.

Also, the contract for semis and finals to be played at Rauros has expired, and statements we've heard have indicated that the ACC thinks it's time for a bit of variety. Given that they aren't using that arena for the finals, it seems logical that it's being used for something.

The ban on games in Valinor has been lifted. The folks from the Blessed Realm will likely be gung-ho to show themselves as fantastic hosts so as not to suffer another ban, and more than likely the ACC will want to take advantage of their eagerness to please.

So, in my opinion, Valinor is a cert for hosting both in groups and in the playoffs. But with four different teams from the Blessed Realm (and the likelihood that FC, Real, & Tirion won't be grouped together), who hosts, and which teams come?

Tirion's primary and secondary stadiums would be a logical choice, but so would Valimar's, so it seems one of them will host. As to the visiting squads, if it's Tirion then The Sea and The Havens and a team from Beleriand would be logical, but rumors are swirling about The Sea (pun intended) and a hosting possibility that is in the works for them, thus Tirion seems less likely.

Thus it seems that team Valimar is the more likely host, with Armenelos and the Havens likely to visit, supplemented by a Beleriand squad. Unless the inter-dimensional team is placed there (i.e. The Barrow-Downs). Given the sheer distance of Valinor, wouldn't it be an elegant solution to send a team that cares not a whit about distance?

And since we mention The Sea, let's address that now. Ulmo has been very nudge-nudge-wink-wink about the possibility of Tol Eressea as a host site. It wouldn't make any sense if Valimar was also used, if not for a few hints Ulmo has dropped about working on a very large project that would enable a wide variety of spectators to view games. So enough with the hinting and I'll come out and say it- I think Ulmo is working on a mobile sea-faring stadium.

And what a great idea it would be if it is actually pulled off! It would allow them to include in their group three not-so-close squads by virtue of holding games in each of the three locations, e.g. the first round could be in Gondor, the second in Beleriand, and the third back in Valinor. But of course that makes it somewhat impossible to predict which teams might join The Sea in the group.

Now what about the eastern end of Middle-Earth? Last year there were games at Isengard and Moria, and in the playoffs Lothlorien, so what places are there for this year? Well- Gondor obviously, either Minas Tirith or Osgiliath would be straightforward choices. But if The Sea does indeed have a mobile stadium and docks near Gondor for their first round, perhaps it would make sense to have the two groups in proximity, which opens up Dol Amroth and Pelargir as possible host sites (though it would make the primary and secondary stadiums farther apart for the third round matches).

Another easterly location would be Mirkwood and/or Erebor- we know they have attractive accommodations, so they've got to be considered. That would mean Erebor and Wilderland could be grouped together, and more than likely they'd take a team from Gondor or Mordor, and then another team from farther north (Anduin, Misty Mts, Isengard).

If Dol Amroth ends up hosting, then naturally they'd take one of the Gondor teams and one from Mordor, but to fill out the group they'd need some combination of Isengard or Anduin plus some other squad, which says to me that Misty Mts will more than likely end up with Wilderland and Erebor.

Now, what about the Beleriand & Eriador hosts? Since Nargothrond, Michel Delving, Weathertop, and Grey Havens were used last time for groups, I would say they are out. The obvious substitutes are Angband, Gondolin, and Doriath. If I can be allowed to stray into purest conjecture, I would say the lifting of the Valinor ban in conjunction with the expired Rauros contract will land the finals in Valimar, and thus to keep the balance I fully expect Angband to be awarded the semis.

With that in mind, Gondolin and Doriath seem nearly to be absolutes, and given the teams they were grouped with last time around, perhaps each will receive a Valinor team (FC or Real), each will receive an Eriador squad (Eriador, Shire-Bree, Imladris, or Arnor), and each will receive a Beleriand squad (Hithlum, Inter, AC, Nargothrond, TIG, Angfauglith, Angband). But that's too many squads obviously, thus another host site is necessary, and if Angband is already occupied with hosting in the playoffs, why not Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth? If indeed none of the other sites are hosted in a location populated with "baddies", they would be a logical choice to balance things out.

Long story short, teams are going to be a bit more jumbled this year to provide a slight variance in flavor, but all it will involve is shifting last year's host sites to the nearest viable site and trading two teams in one group for a team or two from the next-nearest couple of host sites. Thus we can sort of predict the groupings, but not with much precision. It would be foolish to even post a list of predicted groupings, but guessing at host sites is a little more an exact science, thus in summary, my predicted group hosting sites for 2013 are-

Valimar, Tol Eressea, Anfauglith and/or Tol-In-Gaurhoth, Gondolin, Doriath, Erebor and/or Mirkwood, somewhere in Gondor

Now, if Anfauglith/TIG and Erebor/Mirkwood are indeed used together, that leaves one host site missing. For the remaining site- the options would be somewhere in Mordor, Annuminas/Norbury, Rauros/Dol Guldur, and Dor-Lomin/Hithlum. Football fans that are anxious to travel and support their team, or merely anxious to see if any teams will be close enough to justify a trip, simply cannot wait for the ACC to officially announce the sites. So hurry up already!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Tar-Eldar Network Television presents a summary of the various reports, rumours, and opinions from the leading newspapers in Arda.

• From the Tirion daily broadsheet Arda: Eönwë and Ingwë fail to renew their contracts with Tirion, their destinations yet unknown. The editorial comments that the King of all Elves ‘had turned his back once more on his subjects to fawn upon the Valar’, suggesting that the Vanya, and probably the Maia as well, has joined Valimar. Meanwhile, Tirion captain Finwë presents their latest signing, former Real Valinor right back Rúmil. They now have four new defensive signings, though the contractual fate of their previous defenders remains unknown.
  
  
• From the Beleriand weekly magazine Quenta Noldorin Sport: AC Beleriand right back Ecthelion has been traded for another full-back, Balrog #4. Anfauglith are believed to have paid Fëanor’s side an additional $2 million to make the deal fall through. In the another article, QN Sport reports that deep-lying playmaker Meleth of Gondolin has taken a year’s hiatus from football. ‘The constant years of playing has tired me out,’ she said. ‘If I would be given another chance to play in future Arda Cups, I would consider it. But not this year.’
  
  
• From the Moria tabloid Daily Hammer: Midfielders Thrór and Thorin announce their departure from the Dwarves United squad; Thrór headed for retirement, Thorin joining the Lonely Mountain. In their place the sons of Dís, Fíli and Kíli, were signed for $2 million each.
  
  
• From the Beleriand daily magazine Gazetta Edain: AC Beleriand midfielder Bregolas’s one-year contract expires as negotiations for a renewal failed. In the meantime, regional rivals Inter Beleriand released defender Brandir. The editorial observes that, while Beren said that he joined Inter because he wanted to be reunited with some of his old Ladros teammates, his father Barahir signed an extension with Nargothrond, a team in dire need of a good defensive player.
  
  
• From the broadsheet Nargothrond Tribune: Finrod’s squad begin training in the High Faroth Arena. Most conspicuous is the presence of Bëor in outfield kit, meaning a) he is still in the squad; and b) he is no longer the goalkeeper. Less conspicuous is the presence of Petty-Dwarf Mîm on the touchline, wearing a grey suit and carrying stacks of videos. ‘Mîm in, Nienor out: Will that be enough to end years of disappointment?’ goes the editorial.

 

[Boromir88]

The Iron Prison on Lockdown
-Boro88

After Angband's disapponting 2012 season, where they were knocked out of the first round playoffs by the stalwart underdogs Minas Tirith, Morgoth retreated into his iron fortress to design plans for next year. Everytime Morgoth shuts out the press, and forbids any soul from entering or leaving Angband chills your bones.

What new schemes is Morgoth hatching? What new evil to employ that will (hopefully) give Morgoth the trophy of trophies, the Arda Cup. The trophy Morgoth has greatly coveted, but has so far eluded his grasp.

It was evident in the playoff matchup Angband did not have the players who were capable of winning a shootout. Ancalagon is clutch in those tight spots, but the dragon is just one Morgoth could trust. I mean, would you trust a cat in a shootout situation? Angband did last year, and it cost them. So, many felt for 2013 Angband would have to get a better striker up-front to pair with Ancalagon.

Not that Telvildo is rubbish, because felines add a new dimension to Angband's play. Cats contribute a cunning and agile gameplay that is great in the possession and passing game. Their cunning agility mixed well with the brute trickery of Morgoth. But let's be honest, if Angband finds themselves in a shootout, they'll face the same problem that tripped them up last year.

No one really knows what Angband's team will be this year, so tight has the lid on Angband been during the off-season. However, we do know their full roster is assembled and Evil House will not be spending anymore money on this season. Morgoth, Carcaroth, and Ancalagon are definitely back since no one has seen them come out of Angband since last year. What the rest of the team will be is anyone's guess, but the loudest sounds echoing out of Angband in recent days has been...purrs?

[Boromir88]

Gasping for some Offense
-Boro88

Next team up for TTN's previews takes us to the desert plains. And as much as I was gasping for water while visiting Angfauglith's practice facilities, the team ownership was gasping for some much needed offense. Angfauglith had been eliminated in group play last year, but it was based on fewer goals scored than Doriath. Angfauglith could only manage 3 goals in 3 games and that was the reason for the team's early exit, as Thuringwethil was often all alone with a sub-par midfield behind her.

The defense was one of the most fearsome ever put together on the pitch, with 3 Balrogs and the great Ungoliant tending the goal. However, desperately needing some offensive help, Angfauglith appears to be changing the gears ever so-slightly. They said audious to Thuringwethil and also lost one of the Balrog defenders, but still with Ungoliant and 2 Balrogs, the club doesn't expect to lose much when it comes to defense.

The major change was announced recently, and obviously spending 28 million total for two new strikers, owners are expecting much greater success in return. It is an interesting partnership, that much is for sure. Two historic rivals are paired up as the forwards for Angfauglith. To say they've had a confrontational past is putting it lightly! However, this isn't the first time Gothmog and Ecthelion have been signed to play on the same team. They've had good success on separate teams (and also much success when playing against eachother), but when they were partners for Gondolin in 2009, it was seen as a failure for the hidden city, since Gondolin did not make it into the playoffs. And then Gothmog left in a fuss in 2010, only to see Gondolin win the title that year! Will the tale be different in 2013 for the two star-strikers? Their fate seems bound together...in both glory...and death.

[Nogrod]

Before the rosters are revealed the rumours are at their hottest - and here are some the journalists of the AKM have heard lately...


~*~

The oddest rumour the AKM has heard of this pre-season is the one which claims that Arien is leaving Real Valinor! Now she has played a few seasons with Miriel and Nerdanel – and the last year especially was the three were performing just outstandingly. And as the winners of the last year’s tournament it shouldn’t be a matter of money either as it would seem Real Valinor could easily pay her salaries comparable to what players like Fëanor or Túrin make – and it would only be fair (says the AKM).

So they formed the most fearsome female trio in the attack last year and it’s not money… so what is it?

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Some of the other wildest speculations before the new season have been centered around the last year’s surprising quarterfinalists Shire-Bree United. It is whispered that Strider is leaving the team to play as Aragorn somewhere just for the sake of it… or to play with Arwen for a specific reason for leaving the Breelanders. There has also been talk about the two Nazgûl’s being unhappy with the team and to top that: others argue that the Barrow-Wight has felt a bit dull lately and will be off to have more fun somewhere.

But what has taken everyone by surprise has been the announcement that Tom Bombadill will not be playing for Shire-Bree any more. And this is known as a fact as Tom himself announced it.

So are we going to see a totally new team this year and where are they going to get their finances from?

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Third big news we hear concerns the Wilderland team. Now despite some of the murkier characters in the line-up it was clearly an elven-led and –financed team last year. But now it seems there has been a coup in there when the elves have backed off after the losses taken last year - and who else but Sauron seems to be steppin g forwards. Some whisper Sauron’s Amon Lanc Properties has bought a majority of the tam and filled it with his orcs and other creatures of the darkness while the elves have withdrawn completely.

Be that as it may… it will be hard to see Galadriel playing for a majority-owner Sauron – not to talk of Elwë or Oromë to that matter. So unless the news are a total hoax, there is something considerably big going on with Wilderland for this season.

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One interesting issue is the situation with Erebor… they gained a nice profit last year with their nice results but it seems they are more likely to tighten their purse this year than opening it up for more glory. It seems the dwarves and Mr. Moneybags have reached an agreement on budget policy: pile the money, pile the money… The football fans will not like it.

Where they will cut their expenses will be crucial for the chances of their success this year.

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It looks like the Hador House Holdings took quite a damage last year (26 million in total!) when Hithlum didn’t even qualify – not to talk of the rage Túrin vented after the group phase. Túrin swore he would never again play in a team that would not qualify… and the rumour has it he has invested quite heavily himself this year (through Hador House Holdings of course). It seems Hithlum is coming to this season with more bite and sting – and a budget from another planet.

The top news of course is the rumour of Beleg coming to the aid of his old friend. Others have it that there has been a considerably strong wind blowing in the team and that they have tried to get rid of all the mediocre or weaker players from last year. And it seems relatively certain Hador’s sons Galdor (father of Húrin and Huor) and Gundor will leave Anfaughlith and replace the elven escorts Grithnir and Gethron in the defence.

So Doriath seems to be losing Beleg, but the rumours have it that they are losing Lúthien as well. It looks grim for the last year’s qualifier this year – unless they are able to grab some real talent with decent prices to replace the rumoured losses. The fact that Thingol and Melian seem to be quite unwilling to open the team-ownership to any outsiders surely makes pressure to their budget.

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We have heard relatively little of Eriador (except the signing of NogWight) but that both major owners of the team Elrond and Norbury Sport have been busy investing the money they made last year to other teams of their alignment. But the rumours have it that they are not intending to weaken their team this year either but aim for the top once again.