Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Dwarves United


(Expected formation)

Last year
Dwarves United surprisingly advanced to the knockout stages ahead of an offensively stacked Wilderland squad and a solid Anduin team. They did it in the way of most footballing underdogs, by being very difficult to break down and nicking a few goals on the break.

Legolas seemed to be the perfect forward for their team—he passed their strict squad selection qualification (being a Dwarf-friend) and he is a speedy forward who excels in rushing at disorganised defences. However, all they got from their lone forward is a goal in four games, a poor rate of return considering he offers little else to the Dwarven offence: he’s poor at holding the ball up and his crossing ability is useless when the targets are often less than four feet tall.

Changes
Which is why it’s surprising that their major acquisition during the preseason transfer window, former Wilderland attacking midfielder Galadriel, is being fielded as a goalkeeper. This is especially bewildering considering their former keeper Bombur boasted a save rate that was tied for seventh best last year. That they would choose an incremental increase in defensive solidity over a two- or even threefold increase in offensive ability is perhaps deeply rooted in Dwarven philosophy. It is certainly a decision many football analysts struggle to understand.

Defence
Ahead of Galadriel is a solid back four: Azaghâl and Aulë are the centre-backs, with the Dwarf from Belegost doing the tackling and interceptions while the Vala stayed behind to make clearances and win headers. On the flanks are the attacking left-back Celebrimbor and the more defensive-minded right-back Durin.

Midfield
In front of them are Dwarves United’s other preseason signings, midfielders Fíli and Kíli. We disagree with AKM when they said that their ‘only merit is that they will play for the team with half the price.’ The sons of Dís are an improvement over Thror and Thorin; while the elder two are more combative tacklers (unfortunately leading to yellow cards), the latter are quicker and more capable of occupying space and cutting off passing options for opposing attackers. They are also excellent in short one-touch passing, as they demonstrated in their friendly vs Rohan—their quick switch of play from one flank to the other led to Celebrimbor setting up Gimli to create Telchar’s winner.

Attack
Just behind Legolas are the more attacking trio of midfielders. Gamil Zirak and Telchar start out wide and dribble past opponents, while Gimli drifts into space to create overloads on either wing. One of the trio will receive a short pass from Fíli and Kíli while the others dash forward to support Legolas. Last year, Celebrimbor often arrived late in the box when defences have paid them too much attention to the four attackers, and his Fëanorean ball skills were enough to give him space to shoot. But, during the friendlies, teams have begun to man-mark him, even double-marking him when he crosses the halfway line (as in the game against Rohan). His decision-making must be spot on so he can exploit potential openings, as he did vs the Rohirrim when, as Háma and Snowmane double-teamed him, he passed to the open Gimli who immediately assisted a cutting Telchar.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Aulë
FORMATION: 4-5-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defensively solid.
WEAKNESS: Lack of goalscoring.
KEY PLAYER: Celebrimbor
QUESTION: Can they get goals out of Legolas?
__________

Gondolin


(Expected formation)

Last year
Gondolin scored seven goals in four tournament games, with forwards Gothmog and Maeglin accounting for all but one goal. Their offence was ranked ninth in the tournament, putting up 16.5 shots per game (better than even AC Beleriand’s 16.14). More than half of the goals they scored, however, came against Arnor. They scored only once against some of the tournament’s top defences (one vs second-ranked Eriador and none vs third-ranked AC Beleriand).

Changes
In the offseason Gothmog transferred to Anfauglith; in his place as Gondolin’s line leader was Tuor from the Havens. Pengolodh was released and Penlod from FC Valinor was brought in to strengthen the defence. Also from FC Valinor was wide midfielder Idril, brought in to replace a retiring Meleth. Having two legitimate wide players means that Gondolin would field a normal 4-4-2 instead of their asymmetrical 4-2-2-2.

Midfield
There is a problem, though: Salgant and Duilin, Gondolin’s two central midfielders, are incompatible with the Hidden Kingdom’s defensive style. In fact, they just don’t fit well together. A traditional central midfield duo consists of one disciplined player with a more forward-thinking one (either a passer or a runner). But Salgant drifts around the pitch too much to play the more disciplined role. Duilin isn’t suited for it, either; he is an energetic box-to-box player, excellent at moving forward to link midfield and attack, supplying passes to the forwards, and making late runs to the penalty box against distracted defenders, but he is poor at tackling and even poorer at defensive positioning. As a result, Gondolin, even with their two banks of four, look surprisingly open to attacks through the middle. During their friendly against Hithlum, Hador found a surprising amount of space to run in and finish Túrin’s chipped ball past the defence—Salgant had been chasing Túrin around whenever the forward dropped deep, while Duilin was dragged away by Morwen’s movement to the flanks.

Attack
Out wide beside Duilin and Salgant are Idril on the right and Elemmakil on the left. They are both better on attack than defence, which compounds the problem of protecting their defence. Elemmakil is a traditional winger, hugging the touchline before delivering crosses to the forwards, while Idril drifted inside to act as a third central midfielder when she played for FC Valinor; however, in Gondolin’s more direct counterattacking system, she’s been asked to replicate Elemmakil’s movements.

The game against Tirion highlighted Meleth’s underrated importance to Gondolin’s attack—she was their ‘quarterback’, playing accurate balls out of the defence directly to the attackers in dangerous positions, something Rog or the defenders could not do. Creating too few chances against Tirion’s second-worst defence (whose personnel, however, were completely revamped during the offseason trade window) illustrated the difficulty Gondolin had connecting defence and attack when their wingers are marked tightly. (During their second friendly against Hithlum Idril and Elemmakil were given more space, and they had more influence in the game.)

Up front, Tuor is the target man, able to lead the line with force as well as score goals. Maeglin plays just behind him, linking midfield and attack as well as drifting laterally into channels.

Defence
Penlod is a step above Pengolodh as a defender, adding toughness and positional discipline to their backline. The rest of the back four are vulnerable to crafty forwards and midfield runners. Their full-backs offer little going forward, but with Idril and Elemmakil already providing the attacking width, there is little need for them to do so. And goalkeeper Rog has yet to regain his 2010 form, although his save rate during friendlies (73%) is a step above his 2012 rate (68%). (Iorithil of QN Sport wrote an article surmising that his performance with Vinyamar might be credited more to the Ulmo-organised defence than his own talent.)

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Maeglin
FORMATION: 4-4-1-1/4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: counterattacking
STRENGTH: Attackers, pace down the flanks.
WEAKNESS: Defence and central midfield.
KEY PLAYER: Maeglin
QUESTION: Who will link the defence and attack when their wingers are marked out of the game? (All the teams in their group have defensively solid wide players)
__________

Group B’s expected finish:

1. AC Beleriand
2. Inter Beleriand
3. Gondolin
4. Dwarves United

[the phantom]

Scenarios: Best Case and Worst Case
MESPN Football Round Table

We here at MESPN asked some of our Football round table contributors to come up with best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the field. In the best-case scenarios the rule-of-thumb for the playoffs is that a squad is allowed to pull one reasonable upset, one other team is allowed to pull an upset (allowing them to face the weaker squad), and the group opposite them is allowed to have one squad finish out of position (again, allowing for a weaker opponent). Essentially this guarantees the best-case somewhat probable scenario.

And just because one squad has a higher “BEST” does not mean that squad is superior head-to-head. It may just indicate a combination of a tough group and a likely tough playoff draw.

With worst-case it’s a bit more art than science, as technically anyone can be left out in the cold after the group stage. But to add a bit of diversity in answers, we’re going with more conventional logic and not assuming multiple upsets.

So anyway, not true best/worsts here, but rather with likelihood factored in.

GROUP A

Armenelos
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Barrow-Downs
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Havens
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Valimar
BEST- runner up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Any team from group A can make the playoffs, but it won’t be easy for anyone. Once there they’ll be meeting a Group H team, which means it’s likely a matchup they won’t be entirely overmatched in. The key is the following round, where they will meet whichever squad emerges from the B-G matchup. If it’s AC Beleriand, Angband or TIG then obviously it’ll be a heck of a challenge, but if there’s an upset inside one of those groups that yields an Angfauglith vs Gondolin matchup or something like that, while those teams aren’t pushovers they are generally preferable to playing Feanor or Morgoth.

Once in the semis, they can’t count on a Cinderella to be waiting for them, so they’ll need to really be on it to advance, and it’s the same story in the finals. We rated Valimar and Armenelos as runner-up because we think three games in a row against Angband/Real/AC/etc. is too much to expect (not that they can’t- it’s just not probable). We can’t just take every team with enough talent to win a title and declare their best scenario as “champ”- we must separate them somehow.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Inter Beleriand
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Dwarves United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondolin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

AC Bel is one of the few teams we put in the playoffs under worst-case. The group isn’t easy, but as no one on the panel could leave them lower than 2nd we declared them a “lock” to advance. We almost moved everyone in the group back a spot in the best-case due to the likelihood of facing a strong team in the first round of the playoffs, but whether they finish 1st or 2nd in-group they will have a winnable quarterfinal match if they can but get through the first game.

It’s true that Valimar, Armenelos, or Anduin are likely strong opponents there, but those squads aren’t known for playing in a scary and exploitive style, if you follow. If a team is having some weakness at the back someone like FC Valinor will lick their lips and try to bury them, whereas Valimar and Armenelos are more controlled and defensive and thus the game has a higher probability of remaining tight, which gives teams with fine attacks (like Gondolin and Inter) a puncher’s chance.

The lowest best-case in the group is Dwarves United on account of their lack of scoring, but it’s still impressive that the worst team can make the quarters. Their defensive talents and focus is good enough (it proved it last year) to advance out of the group, and they would have a shot at frustrating a team like Angband or Angfauglith and forcing PKs.

GROUP C

Doriath
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Hithlum
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

Shire-Bree United
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Real Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

As you can see we ran into some trouble here, as Hithlum and Real have both come out as “locks” to make the playoffs, which should technically keep Doriath and Shire-Bree from having a best-case scenario. Yes, it’s clear there are flaws in our system here- a lot of grey area of overlap.

We don’t see much difference between Doriath and Shire-Bree, but felt that SBree’s defensive tools gave them a slight chance of upsetting the team they face from Group F, such as attack-heavy Nargothrond. And doubtless you noticed that there are two potential champs in this group- a rare feature indeed (shared only by Group G).

Between Hithlum and Real, it is tough to say who has the better odds. Real is stronger defensively, but Hithlum’s firepower is possibly the best in the tournament. In the end it could very well come down to head-to-head for determining who wins the group.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Gondor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Isengard
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

FC Valinor
BEST- champion
WORST- 1st round playoffs

It’s tough indeed to see FC getting ousted before the playoffs, but once in the playoffs they could certainly run into trouble, such as a matchup with Eriador. But as one of the best teams in the tournament and no one team clearly better than the rest, they could certainly string together victories to win a title (as they appeared to be on their way to last year).

Isengard would be doing well indeed to make it out of this group, but more realistically it’s between Barad-Dur and Gondor. Either would have a chance of winning their first round match (Barad-Dur looks well-equipped to handle most of Group E while Gondor appears built well to attempt an upset of Group E’s strongest squad, Eriador).

Once in the quarters Gondor could not count on another upset, and the teams they’d possibly face there (Tirion, Real, etc.) would likely be favored. Barad-Dur however has dual dragon-stoppers should they end up against Nargothrond, and they couldn’t hold Sauron scoreless, and the Blue Wizards might give them a slightly better shot than Gondor against Tirion.

GROUP E

Erebor
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Eriador
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

Misty Mts
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

Wilderland
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

With their dependability, cohesion and talent it seems odd not putting “champ” for Eriador’s best, but we felt that it was too much to expect them to win too many games 1-0, as shutting out elite offenses is darn tough, while winning three games 2-1 against teams with elite defenses might be too much to hope for, and we worry a bit about Eriador’s offensive punch against the best squads.

Erebor, Misty and Wilderland felt slightly similar, all with the ability to play a bruising style, and with big powerful scorers up front capable of powering the team to an upset win. In the end we only went quarterfinals for Misty and Wilderland, because while Durin’s Bane and Scatha might prove tough matchups for the defenses of Nargothrond or Tirion, the quick offenses of Narg & Tirion might also prove problematic, while Hithlum and Real both have big stoppers (Balrog#5, Tilion, Nahar). But we put Erebor through to the semis for best-case because frankly they proved it last year.

GROUP F

Minas Tirith
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in-group

Nargothrond
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in-group

The Sea
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in-group

Tirion
BEST- runner-up
WORST- eliminated in-group

The major concern for advancement here is the chance of facing Turin and Hithlum or defending champ Real in the first round of the playoffs. We didn’t give Minas Tirith a chance to advance in the playoffs because we thought it was too much to expect them to beat out all of these three other teams for first in the group, and finishing second they’d pretty well be guaranteed a team they don’t match up against well.

The other three we said might win the group, thus finishing first it’s possible one of the Group C heavies will be bumped to third leaving an easier matchup for the Group F winner. We passed all three through the quarters either because a team was likely to be there that they matched up well against, or simply because we believed in a one-game scenario they could pull an upset anyway.

Tirion we advanced one spot beyond Nargothrond on account of their defense. They aren’t overly large and diverse, but with Caranthir, Amrod and Amras back there in front of Finarfin they would match up decently against squads that don’t feature a dragon or similar large striker. The Sea on the other hand we felt had the teeth on defense to slow anyone down, and then good enough scorers backed by one of the most solid midfields around, thus they can win it all.

GROUP G

Angband
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

Angfauglith
BEST- seminfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Imladris
BEST- eliminated in group
WORST- eliminated in group

Tol-In-Gaurhoth
BEST- champion
WORST- eliminated in group

This was a tough group to handicap. We were tempted to say that Angband or TIG’s worst would be the first round of the playoffs, but Angfauglith just seemed too dangerous. If Gothmog shoots lights out and the Balrogs at the back play smart and Ungoliant has a great effort, they could certainly upset Angband or TIG.

As far as guaranteeing Imladris for an early exit, it sort of went hand in hand. The other three squads are just all too scary to count on Imladris pulling out a victory more than once, particularly playing away from home (all three other squads will feel at home in the two host stadiums- Anfauglith and Tol In Gaurhoth).

Once out of the group, their playoff fortunes may depend on where they finish and where the Group B teams finish. If at all possible they probably want to avoid a contest with AC Beleriand to start the playoffs. Angband and TIG are both capable of winning that game if they play their very best and AC doesn’t, but no one ever bets on Feanor exiting before the quarterfinals. If they avoid that matchup however, suddenly their chances of a run go up.

GROUP H

Anduin
BEST- semifinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Arnor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Mordor
BEST- quarterfinals
WORST- eliminated in group

Rohan
BEST- playoffs
WORST- eliminated in group

We felt that any of these teams was capable of a one-time upset of one of the other four, thus anyone has a risk of being left in groups. Once in the playoffs we didn’t like the way Rohan matched up with the likely Group A winners. Mordor seems ill-suited to face the power and majesty of Valimar (they’d probably arouse their righteous anger), but we give them a puncher’s chance against Armenelos, as the Nazgul would have a slight chance of creeping the mortals off their game, and Shelob might be tough to contest headers with.

We gave Arnor the quarters as best-case as well. Armenelos will play a style familiar to them, but do it better than Arnor- but in a single game anything can happen (unless the disparity is huge of course). And against Valimar, as we saw a couple years ago, the Arnorians know how to keep the Valar dispassionate.

For Anduin we decided to hop them an extra round, as they have the weapons to better take on their first round opponents, and have a better shot at upsetting a heavy-hitter should they meet them in the quarters. The speed and range of Felarof at the back alongside Fram, a natural beast-stopper, gives them better legs to stand on.

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Contributors- Philip McPhantom (MESPN lead football coordinator), Ruharg the Red (Monster Magazine lead sports editor), Ar-Tar-Aradil (Westernesse Weekly sports writer, NAAF president), Adanel (Football wise-woman for Dor-Lomin Athletic Digest), Finwanoro (Football columnist for The Tirion Times and MESPN)

[Nogrod]

GROUP A
Armenelos
The Barrow-Downs
The Havens
Valimar

The Barrow-Downs (last year called “the Downer”) might have evolved into a semi-serious team but it will not be qualifying this year, even if Bombadill can vreac some havoc when having an interest on it. With the other teams it gets more problematic.

Over half of the team of the Havens has changed since last year but it looks pretty solid like it did last season. Losing Tuor and the twin sons of Eärwen is a huge loss though – and hard to compensate. The results from the friendlies were promising anyway and The Havens will fight seriously for qualification.

Manwë has been able to both cut the costs and level-up the team. And the brightest change of all is of course getting Arien into the team. With Manwë and his closest pal Mandos, and some other awe-inspiring players, Valimar sure isn’t the team one thinks of beating just like that. But then on the other hand Valimar has rarely shown excellence in the field (except against teams of “baddies”). All eyes will be glued to Arien then, for it is up to her – and up to others to deliver the ball to her – whether Valimar qualifies or not.

Armenelos has been only waiting for this season to show that what happened the last year will not repeat itself. They are intent on going far in this torunament. As one of the very few teams that have clearly gotten stronger this year, they also seem pretty serious about it. Elros is a great add-on to the team both mentally and sportively.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Armenelos
Fight for the second spot: Valimar, The Havens
Will not qualify: The Barrow-Downs

Scorers: Eärendil, Elros and Ar-Pharazôn, if you want to go for a possible jackpot try Arien or Bombadill.
Defenders & Keepers: no good picks in this group – or you could try Manwë / Valimar defenders. All highest defenders have a history of scoring every now and then, only not too often (except Tar Telperien a few years ago).



GROUP B
AC Beleriand
Inter Beleriand
Dwarves United
Gondolin

In principle any of the four teams could qualify from this group, but there are differences as well: if AC Beleriand qualifies it is more or less no news, but if Dwarves United does it is big news.

Dwarves United did qualify the last year (albeit from a lot weaker group) and has basically just strengthened from that by getting Galadriel to keep the goal. Their friendlies haven’t given any reason for the fans to get too excited but they have not been too challenging either. But what they have clearly shown is that like last year it will be hard to score against them.

Gondolin has been having a dry time for a few years now and everyone is waiting for them to bounce back again into the bright lights. With Tuor and Idril back in town the hopes are up again. Forcing Hithlum into a draw was a great feat but losing 0-2 to Tirion in the first friendly was less flattering. So they are facing the season with mixed feelings.

Inter Beleriand acquired Beren and Lúthien for this season and are serious about qualifying. If Turgon and the defences hold they will have the road open, but if not…

The figure of Fëanor looms large over the team AC Beleriand – and he hates to lose. Together with Eöl and the new finds Angrod and Aegnor they have one of the most devastating attacks this tournament has – and as their iron-defence has only gotten tougher this year with the adding of one Balrog it seems they are one of the clearest candidates to pick the whole trophy. The only problem being no stranger to Fëanor himself: that hybris is followed by nemesis.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: AC Beleriand
Fight closest for the second spot: Inter Beleriand, Gondolin
More probably will not qualify: Dwarves United

Scorers: All four AC Beleriand attacking players (Aegnor has been devastating in the friendlies, Fëanor is always a safe bet); Maedhros, Beren, Tuor, Maeglin…
Defenders & Keepers: Celebrimbor leads the toughest defence and can score himself, Lúthien or Fingolfin for the more adventurous pickers. Galadriel for goal, Turgon has been very good at the goal this season as well and Marach stands behind one of the toughest defences.



GROUP C
Doriath
Hithlum
Shire-Bree United
Real Valinor

Some might say that Shire-Bree United plays in a different – or wrong – league here. And there are reasons for that statement. But it must be admitted that the oddballs from the newer ages have shown their qualities the previous years, and with Gandalf on board one can not just wipe them off from one’s considerations. That said, to qualify they must leave two of three other teams: Real Valinor, Hithlum and Doriath, behind them – and that would be a feat indeed.

With Elwë back and leading the team along his wife Melian Doriath is a team one needs to take seriously. That said, their friendlies weren’t very convincing and not having either Beren or Lúthien in the scoringboard is a big loss which even Elwë probably won’t compensate.

Túrin may be used to losing in real life but he does hate it from the bottom of his heart. Last year was a disaster for Hithlum and this time they have bet everything for this one run… If Morgoth had his way they would fail epicly and the story of that one remarkable family would end in bankrupcy, but happily for the house of Hador Angband is not playing in this group. So it is up to Túrin and his best (and only?) friend Beleg – with the support of his dad, and uncle, Hador himself and all the other family – to score their way far in the tournament. There is no real estate that hasn’t been mortgaged to pay for this year’s salaries.

The AKM does think that Real Valinor is definitively weaker side they were last year with the selling of Arien (forced by Manwë?) and Caranthir. Then again their friendlies were just convincing: drawing with FC Valinor (to whom they lost twice last year) and beating Valimar cleanly 3-1. There should be no question that Real is a tough team again this year; and both Oromë and Nahar are Quality – and bring in some team-spirit indeed.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Real Valinor, Hithlum
Will not qualify: Doriath, Shire-Bree United

Scorers: Gandalf seems to be getting into shpe for the first time, anyone from the house of Hador’s attack – or Miriel / Nerdanel. Oromë is a bit more risky but possibly rewarding choice like Khamûl or Mablung are.
Defenders & Keepers: With teams like Hithlum and Real Valinor in the group it is hard to suggest any defenders, but maybe Tulkas for goal and Tilion for a defender (could as well score) – if you feel daring then pick Halbarad ot Shadowfax from the Shire-Bree. Hithlum defence is a no-no.



GROUP D
Barad-Dur
Gondor
Isengard
FC Valinor

Now there is no stopping FC Valinor in this group and it is easy to see brothers Celegorm and Curufin annoyed with the quality of the teams they are thrown against in the group phase – even if there are some individual players that will challnge even them for real. It is just that there is not quality enough in any of the other teams to seriously challenge FC Valinor’s peak position.

Isengard has taken two narrow 1-2 losses from Rohan and Wilderland in the friendlies. From last year they have changed the basically immobile Caradhras into very-very slow Beechbone – which is a kind of step forwards one could say – and replaced Freca with a Nazgûl in the midfield. So even if Saruman has been cutting costs he has managed to build a stronger-looking team. The problem just is that it might not be enough.

Last year Gondor won the lousiest group with some ease and was dropped with penalties to Shire-Bree. For this year they have lost two quality-players Hyermendacil and Falastur and gotten in exchange a promising Meneldil and a more or less mediocre Galadil. In the friendlies they have taken two expected results (beating Mordor 3-1 and drawing 2-2 with Minas Tirith) but there is little to tell to one’s grandchildren about those matches.

Sauron is clearly trying to have an effect without getting his hands dirty – or using too much money from his pockets. Last year’s pathetic defence is fired and now there are two wizards and two Fellbeasts defending the goal in front of the new goalkeeper Grishnâkh (?). The friendlies weren’t impressive, but Sauron himself can perform miracles as we all know.

Which leaves FC Valinor. Changing Nahar and Penlod from defence into Thorondor and Eönwe weighs slightly on the stronger side. Giving up Lórien and Idril on the midfield for Elemmirë and Indis is clearly a weakening – so to sum up, the team should be more or less on even ground – but the AKM thinks they have weakened in total. Drawing with The Sea and Real are not good signs for them even if most teams should jubilate such results as victories of the century.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: FC Valinor
Fight for the second spot: Barad-Dûr, Gondor
More probably will not qualify: Isengard

Scorers:The brothers and Yavanna are the obvious choices here, and Sauron likewise; on the second level try Eldacar or Saruman, or maybe Meneldil to be original.
Defenders & Keepers: Huan is the obvious pick but also Grishnâkh has been pretty good; any FC Valinor defenders are good picks, Eönwe might be even worth the star that gets used with him.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Today: Four people gather in a room, talk about two groups of eleven people kicking a ball around, and figure out which group will get the ball past a line surrounded by a netted box a greater number of times. This is the Matchday’s 2013 Arda Cup preview episode. I’m your host, Elenrod, and with me today is our secret weapon in the battle for network ratings, tactics expert Maikalomion.

Maika: Thanks.

Elenrod: He loved being in the show so much, he wanted to do it again. Iorithil of QN Sport is also here.

Felagundion: No new book out this time?

Iorithil: No, basically, I’m just hiding from the angry Gondolin fans.

Felagundion: That was a suicidal article you wrote about Rog. I expected Adam or Hunter U. Nogson to be chased by an angry mob, but not you, Iorithil.

Elenrod: And the one who’ll never be gone, mainly because he has a huge debt to pay, Felagundion the blogger.

Felagundion: With Eru’s grace, I’ll escape this terrible fate.

Elenrod: In 231 years’ time. Now, let’s get on with the discussion. Which teams would get out of their groups, which teams would fail? We’ll start with Group A. Now, we have tactical brain Maikalomion. We also have footballing scholar Iorithil. So, Felagundion, what do you think?

Felagundion: Haha! Well, I’ve always pegged Manwë down as a serial choker, and Armenelos and the Havens are doing better in the friendlies, so I’ll have those teams advancing as top seed and second.

Elenrod: Even with Arien in Valimar?

Felagundion: That’s a tough one, yes—I’ve always been a fan of the Sun Lady. But she’s being constrained by Manwë. This reminds me of Lothlórien in 2011, when Fëanor, a perennial Golden Boot contender, wasn’t getting enough touches because of Galadriel’s negative tactics. So I guess I’ll start a ‘Free Arien’ movement.

Elenrod: Maika?

Maika: I’ll have to agree with Felagundion. She’s taken only eight shots in two games for Valimar. Last year with Real Valinor she averaged six shots per game, even with Míriel, Nerdanel, and Nessa in the squad. Now, even though she’s supposed to be the focal point of the offence, she’s often isolated up front due to a lack of service. But I think Valimar will go through; I just trust their defence more.

Iorithil: But in the group stage, scoring is more vital to qualification than defending, although the reverse is true come knockout stages. Still, I don’t think any team in Group A can stop an in-form Arien, except maybe Armenelos. So, for me, Armenelos wins the group, then Valimar second.

Maika: Same for me; I don’t think Eärendil and company can score enough against Armenelos or Valimar.

Elenrod: So you’re all basically ignoring the Downer—pardon, the Barrow-Downs.

Iorithil: Not in this group; I don’t think even Bombadil would be enough to offset their defensive frailty. In 2011 he led the Forest out of the group stage, but basically all he had to do was outscore Mordor and an understrength Nargothrond side.

Elenrod: So, the consensus is

Group A

1. Armenelos
2. Valimar
3. The Havens
4. The Barrow-Downs

Elenrod: Moving along. Group B, anyone?

Maika: The two Beleriands for me, AC Bel then Inter. Everyone now knows how to stop Gondolin—basically, you stop Idril and Elemmakil, like Tirion did. And Dwarves United still can’t score consistently enough.

Iorithil: I think the Dwarves can pick up their offence once the tourney starts. I’d pick them to advance second behind AC Bel. But this is one tough group—only one I’m reasonably sure of advancing is AC Bel, and everyone else has a fair chance.

Felagundion: I’m with Maika here. AC Bel are the best team here, top to bottom, but Inter have a more cohesive squad than Gondolin, who look better on paper. And everyone and their mothers now know that you have to mark Celebrimbor, like Rohan did, and I think the other three teams here can make him a non-factor in Dwarf U’s offence.

Group B

1. AC Beleriand
2. Inter Beleriand
3. Dwarves United
4. Gondolin

Elenrod: On to Group C, then.

Felagundion: I think these gents will all agree with me: Real first then Hithlum.

Iorithil: Agreed; basically just a gulf in quality between them and the rest.

Maika: I concur. Doriath no longer have players like Beleg and Lúthien who can fit in any tactical system they’d need to nullify opponents, and Daeron will now be in every team’s scouting notes—they’ll prioritise shutting him down so he can’t deliver his trademark through passes. Also, Shire-Bree look solid, but they no longer have a genuine game-changer in Bombadil.

Elenrod: Who’d be your dark horse pick, though, one who might spring a surprise?

Iorithil: If Nellas and Saeros become one-tenth as versatile as Beleg and Lúthien, or if Elwing becomes Melian-lite as a full-back, I’d say Doriath have a chance. A very slim one, though.

Felagundion: Doriath for me as well. SBU’s three attackers are about as good as Doriath’s but they have no Melian in the defence.

Elenrod: So for this group, we have

Group C

1. Real Valinor
2. Hithlum
3. Doriath
4. Shire-Bree United

Elenrod: Now, Group D. FC Valinor, and then who else?

Iorithil: Hehe, so, basically, you think FC Val’s a shoo-in? Well, I agree—you’d have to be blind or a total fanatic of the other three teams if you believe they won’t win this group.

Felagundion: Only Sauron has a chance of making it into the FC Valinor squad—that’s how big the gap in quality is. And I absolutely hate Sauron.

Maika: Well, for second, I think Barad-dûr would do it. As Felagundion said, they have the best non-FC Val player, and Grishnákh’s quite a surprise. Fourth-best goalie—even for friendlies, no one expected that. Right now, he’s better than Huan.

Felagundion: But that’s against Arnor and Misty Mts. FC Val had to play Real and the Sea.

Maika: They still hava the Witch-king and Durin’s Bane. Look, no one’s saying they’ll keep a clean sheet against Curufin and company, but against Gondor and Isengard, he might be enough.

Felagundion: I still trust Gondor. The two forwards you mentioned didn’t play hard against Sauron, but Anarion will. And Eldacar and Meneldil are right there with him.

Elenrod: Iorithil? You hold the tiebreaker. Alternatively, you can choose Isengard and screw us all over.

Iorithil: Haha, tempting, but no. Saruman’s squad might have a chance in Group H, but here, he’s basically toast. Hmm, I’d have to go with Barad-dûr. Like with Armenelos and TiG, Sauron won’t want to be left in the group again this year.

Elenrod: All right, then.

Group D

1. FC Valinor
2. Barad-dûr
3. Gondor
4. Isengard

Elenrod: Next up is Group E. Two semifinalists from last year in this group, I see.

Maika: And I’d pick them. Wilderland were held scoreless by Dwarf U—Eriador and Erebor could do the same to them. And Misty Mts’s defence just isn’t working, even with Gwaihir and Caradhras.

Iorithil: I’m assuming that’s Eriador first, Erebor second. I agree, although I think Wilderland has a fair chance of upsetting one of them. Remember: Scatha and Thranduil once basically willed Mirkwood to the semis against stronger competition.

Felagundion: That makes three of us; I think the E’s are advancing in Group E. By the way, I do hope Elrond keeps his ‘concede one goal or less’ streak alive.

Elenrod: Unanimous decision, then.

Group E

1. Eriador
2. Erebor
3. Wilderland
4. Misty Mts

Elenrod: Let’s proceed to Group F.

Maika: I think the Sea have a good chance of winning the group, even if Tirion and Nargothrond look slightly better. Their defence is just on another level, and I think Tar-Minastir and company will put their shooting boots on when the real games start. As for the second spot, I like how Tirion kept a clean sheet against Gondolin. They can muzzle Nargothrond’s attack.

Iorithil: I don’t know; Tirion seem more balanced, and Nargothrond have got that crazy look in their eyes where they’ll turn every match into a scoring contest. I’d give Tirion a better chance than them, and between them and Nargothrond it’s basically a coin flip.

Felagundion: I always say Nargothrond win their group, so as for who goes second . . . I think the Sea can beat Tirion.

Elenrod: And Minas Tirith? They managed to advance to the quarterfinals last year.

Maika: They came from the lousiest group that year, then frustrated a disjointed Angband side who haven’t adjusted yet fully to playing without their midfield anchor Tilion. This is a group of teams who are settled with their identities. They’ll stick to what they do best and beat Minas Tirith there.

Felagundion: I’ve also read a lot of articles praising Mardil, thinking that he could be the star who could bring them out of this group. I mean, Mardil is good player, but he hasn’t exactly pulled up too many trees yet. Well, maybe he’ll start single-handedly winning games like Anarion did last year; we’ll see.

Elenrod: This was a tough group to tally, but basically

Group F

1. The Sea
2. Tirion
3. Nargothrond
4. Minas Tirith

Elenrod: We move on to Group G.

Felagundion: With all due respect to Iorithil, but for me this one’s the Group of Death. There’s Imladris who qualified last year—admittedly, they were roadkill for Erebor in the first round, but still. There’s Angband and TiG, who didn’t qualify for last year, but that was an aberration, I tell you. They will come back angry this year. And you have Anfauglith, who should have qualified over Doriath last year, and they improved their squad. I have no idea who’ll qualify, let alone who’ll win this group. Well, think Imladris won’t qualify, but I’m not sure, because the sons of Elrond look like they know now how to score.

Elenrod: But do you have a blind guess?

Felagundion: I’d say, hmm, Angband, then TiG.

Maika: The same teams for me, but in reverse order. The Werewolves look in good form.

Felagundion: But compare their friendly opponents to Angband’s. Morgoth had a tougher schedule, and he didn’t lose, either.

Maika: But TiG have a better midfield, so they’d keep the ball better. The Easterlings don’t press effectively to recover possession; they’ll just fall back to Morgoth’s lap, like they did vs Tirion. When Finwë dropped to the midfield, no one pressured him. Balrog #1 had to step up to close him down, but that just left space for Aredhel to run into and receive Caranthir’s pass.

Iorithil: I’d go with current form again and say TiG wins the group. But I’ll agree with Felagundion—basically, it’s all very close. Even Anfauglith, who had a shambolic form in the friendlies, have a chance to get it together and qualify. They have the personnel to do it, after all.

Elenrod: The two gang up on Felagundion again.

Group G

1. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
2. Angband
3. Anfauglith
4. Imladris

Elenrod: And last—certainly looking the least—we have group H.

Felagundion: They do look like roadkills for the Group A teams who qualify. Anduin has the best squad on paper, but Arnor and Rohan looks like they can outperform them.

Maika: Arnor, yes, but I think Anduin would still make it, squeeze past Rohan for the second spot.

Iorithil: And here I’d agree with Felagundion. Rohan’s loss to the Dwarves look bad compared to Anduin’s loss to Eriador, but their win against Isengard looks better than Anduin’s draw with Shire-Bree.

Elenrod: So Mordor’s basically fish food in a group of minnows.

Group H

1. Arnor
2. Rohan
3. Anduin
4. Mordor

Elenrod: All right, then. Before we go, do any of you have predictions regarding the knockout rounds? Maybe even the champion.

Felagundion: Nargothrond will be champions, like I always hope for.

Maika: AC Bel, Eriador, and TiG make the semis. The last slot would be decided by another Valinor derby. I think FC Val will win that.

Iorithil: I have none. I just hope the games would start now.

Elenrod: And so indeed do the rest of us. And with that, we’ve come to the end of another show. Thank you all: Maika, Felagundion, Iorithil. From all of us here at TENT: Enjoy the games.

[Nogrod]

GROUP E
Erebor
Eriador
Misty Mts
Wilderland

There seems to be a script ready for this group – and it reads that Eriador will qualify and Misty Mountains stay in the group-phase while Erebor and Wilderland will battle out the other qualifier’s position.

None of the teams from group E played tough opponents in the friendlies, but while other teams allowed zero to one goal in two matches Misty Mts. allowed four. That’s basically their problem – and not having a real Arda-quality offence is another in a group where all the others have tougher than average defences.

Wilderland has changed considerably from last year – including some major losses but also some pretty decent gains. Losing players like Oromë, Galadriel and Elwë would be a blow to any team, but especially getting Thranduil was a good move. Whether that is enough to qualify is then another matter.

Losing two key players Gwaihir from the defence and Thranduil from the offence is bad news indeed for Erebor. Then again they still have two eagles in their defence and Smaug, Bard and a Nazgûl in the offence plus Beorn, one of last year’s stars, on the goal. The positive news for the group phase are of course that Wilderland has also weakened from last season – so it will be all in their own hands.

Common wisdom has it that you shouldn’t change a winning team but Eriador has done some of that leaving many people wondering why. One can explain the changes though, some with moral integrity and others with nepotism – but will it work is then another question. It seems nothing will stop Eriador in the group phase or in the first qualifiers. But will there be a solid and working team to meet some real opposition in the quarters?

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Eriador
Fight for the second spot: Erebor, Wilderland
Will not qualify: Misty Mountains

Scorers: Smaug and Glorfindel will score, Scatha and Thranduil know how to but aren’t as reliable. Azog scored nicely in the fiendlies but in the group-games the defences might be too tough for him.
Defenders & Keepers: Elrond and Beorn keep their sheets clean, Eriador’s defence is overall a smart place to pick players.



GROUP F
Minas Tirith
Nargothrond
The Sea
Tirion

Minas Tirith may be a team of decency and brotherhood, and strengthened with Eomer also a good team – to play against other mediocre teams. But put in to fight for qualification against some real talent and experience they have been given boots too big to fill.

Tirion has changed considerably from last year with some major traffic in and out from the team, but they have seemed to hit a good balance, at least if the friendlies offer a meter for anything: drawing with Angband and taking a clean 2-0 victory from Gondolin show that Tirion is serious this year after their decent fight last year in the “group of death”.

Even if their performance last year left a lot to hope for Nargothrond hasn’t made but one trade for their team for this year changing Mîm to Nienor, but they have shuffled the deck somewhat changing the positions of a few players. And it looks promising for they beat Anfaughlith in the friendlies (last year they draw with them) – and forcing Armenelos into a draw was a great result. They are an offensive powerhouse even The Sea needs to take into account.

Otherwise it looks like The Sea is the best bet for a team to qualify: Ulmo-led Maia-defence and Númenorian midfield and offence look both tight and effective. Beating Valimar and drawing with FC Valinor should tell everyone what is needed on their quality.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will most probably qualify: The Sea
Will fight hard for the second (or first) ticket: Nargothrond, Tirion
Will not qualify: Minas Tirith

Scorers: Anyone from the Nargothrond offence is a good idea as are Aredhel and Finwë. Mardil has been devastating in the friendlies but with the level of the defences going up his scoring will come to a halt.
Defenders & Keepers: If The Sea’s defences can deny FC Valinor a goal they can do it to any other team as well (even if we do not suggest you trust all your phantasy-defence with them in the game against Nargothrond). Finarfin is a quality keeper and Caranthir might bring in occasional extra-points.



GROUP G
Angband
Anfauglith
Imladris
Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Group G is one more group where one team is levels below the others and whose only role is to tease the bigger teams and try its hardest for luck to shine on them and give a comfort-goal somewhere. Imladris has just that position in this group. But the others will really fight it out – and we mean really fight for these are no mr. niceguys who play in this group.

Anfaughlith quite never delivered the last year even if they didn’t play badly. From since they have changed their offense completely and with Ecthelion and Gothmog leading it they look much sharper and more dangerous this year. That said they lost both their friendlies, even if quite closely (1-2 both) to some pretty tough teams (AC Beleriand and Nargothrond). In this group they need to start winning and it will be tough against the two other top teams of the group.

Putting Morgoth and Ancalagon together spells trouble to anyone daring to challenge the two – and adding Carcaroth to the goal makes the opposite-side’s efforts at scoring in jeopardy. But they all have been vanquished every now and then – and there resides the hope of other teams again this powerhouse of evil. Interestingly they opened their season with two draws in the friendlies. Now they need two wins to qualify.

With some of the restraints cancelled and a few smart picks from the player-market – and an added 16 million in the budget – T-I-G is suddenly looking just as dangeorus it was years ago on their hayday. And they have been like a whirldwind in the friendlies fex. breaking Melian’s Girdle into pieces with a ravaging 3-0 score.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (most probably) qualify: Angband, Tol In Gaurhoth
Fights for the second spot: Anfaughlith
Will not qualify: Imladris

Scorers: Gothmog and Ancalagon are safe bets – and if you can affrod one star using it to Morgoth is a star well spent. T-I-G scores a lot in general but the scoring is often spread so it’s hard to give other advice but that it is always useful to have PhantomWolf in your team.
Defenders & Keepers: T-I-G has a tough defence and a classy keeper and same could be said of Angband. No reasonable player would pick players to his defence from Imladris on this group.



GROUP H
Anduin
Arnor
Mordor
Rohan

There seems always to be a group that is a collection of second-rate teams who’d be wiped out in any other group, but as they are brought together they have suddenly a chance to qualify and to compete for the bigger sums offered to qualifiers. And to be sure, they can form entertaining groups and ones that are very hard to predict – like group H in this year’s tournament.

Although one thing we can assure the readers already – and that is that Mordor will not qualify. They are a lousy team even in this group and they seem content to that state of affairs as they have nothing to lose: with 51 million in investment they will gain 9 million in profit even if they lose every game 0-6.

Rohan got as far as the quarterfinals last year but has changed a lot since. With almost 30 million vanished from the investments it is easy to see the level of players has just collapsed. From outside their realm they have only managed to recruit Faramir to play beside his wife – while losing home-grown stars like Eorl, Eomer and Shadowfax to other teams. They still beat Isengard in the friendlies though… as they should.

If you just look at the teams in paper you’d think Arnor has what it takes to just fly through this group but sadly for them paper seems to differ from reality. Having the always scoring Witch King in the offence should make any team uneasy, and having Elendil and Malbeth to shut the defence in front of Arvedui, who after all is a quality keeper, should make opposite offences insecure. Well, their defences have held nicely (against pretty poor offences) but they have themselves scored only one goal in two games. That’s their problem.

Anduin doesn’t boast of any superstars but might just be the most consistent team of this group – there seem not to be weak links or areas of the game they’d be especially bad. Also drawing with Shire-Bree and losing only 0-1 to Eriador in the friendlies are promising signs making them slight favourites to win this group.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (probably) qualify: Anduin, Arnor
Fights for the second spot: Rohan
Will not qualify: Mordor

Scorers: The Witch King should deliver, he normally does. But will he?
Defenders & Keepers: Arnor and Anduin have the best defences here and with no teams having a master-scoring offence, players from both could be decent picks during the group-stage.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Minas Tirith



Last year
Minas Tirith sprang two of the biggest surprises of the 2012 Arda Cup, advancing to the knockout stage ahead of Sauron’s Barad-dûr and a Mordor squad that was six minutes from taking second seed. Then in the first round the Stewards beat Morgoth’s Angband in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes of play.

Minas Tirith were a hardy squad, tactically sound as well as athletically fit. They were unlikely to beat themselves, so it fell upon the opposition to exploit their weaknesses: they’re not solid at the back (having conceded first in all their five games) and not imposing up front, either.

Changes
Since then they’ve replaced attacking midfielder Faramir with Éomer from Rohan, as well as drafting his horse Firefoot at right-back. But fundamentally, Minas Tirith’s identity hasn’t changed. They remain a tactically versatile team, with the personnel to carry out whatever system they use.

Attack
The Stewards’ flexibility starts up front, where a mobile and energetic Boromir I is fielded as a lone forward. Leading the line as a target of long passes, he can also participate in the build-up play, allowing Mardil and Éomer to get ahead of him on the attack. When out of possession, he prevents defenders from making easy passes into the midfield, disrupting the opposition’s build-up play.

Behind him is a band of three attacking midfielders. Mardil on the left is the most talented of the three, preferring to drift inside and storm into the penalty box (and opening up space for left-back Cirion to run into). Éomer in the centre drifts from wing to wing, but can also play through passes for runners (as he did twice for Mardil in the friendlies). Telumehtar on the right, a fullback last year, is more defensive, since most left-backs are more attacking than their counterparts on the right (Barahir and Caranthir are examples in this group), but he is also capable of making a run for the byline and putting in a cross.

Midfield and Defence
Behind them is a well-balanced midfield pivot—Tarondor is a bustling box-to-box midfielder, willing to put in a crunching tackle (earning him two yellow cards in two friendly matches) as well as breaking forward in possession (he played a neat one-two with Mardil vs Gondor). Beside him is Eärnil II, a true holding midfielder who also makes short simple passes to start the attack.

The defence they are protecting consists of Eärnur and Ecthelion II in the centre, Firefoot on the right, and the more attacking Cirion on the left. And in goal is Denethor II, the squad captain and the leader of their defence. His save rate is down (66.7% in the friendlies compared to 73.3% during last year’s tournament), but many expect him to improve once the actual games start.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Denethor II
FORMATION: 4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: pressing, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Cohesive team.
WEAKNESS: So-so defence, lack of a reliable goalscoring threat.
KEY PLAYER: Mardil
QUESTION: Can their ‘scoring by committee’ approach work against quality defences (like the Sea’s) or outscore more talented offences (like Tirion and Nargothrond’s)?
__________

Nargothrond



Last year
Last year’s Nargothrond were a poorly constructed squad, top heavy, stocked with functional midfielders, but sorely lacking in defence. This frailty at the back was exposed early in the tournament when Thuringwethil single-handedly outfoxed and outfought Nargothrond’s four defenders to score a brace. Their whole squad’s problems were then exposed in the next game, when AC Beleriand hammered them with five goals, conceding only one in return, which was scored early in the first half before AC Bel had imposed their dominance on the game.

Their defenders needed protection that holding midfielder Barahir couldn’t provide alone. But with Finrod taking Glaurung’s place as poacher, there was no one to link midfield and attack, forcing the midfielders to push forward. That Mablung, despite being less dominating than Thuringwethil, scored a hat trick against them was due to the fact that, with Nargothrond’s midfielders pushing forward to support the attack (they had a huge goal difference to make up), their back line was exposed to three-on-four situations—two of those three were technically gifted Lúthien and Beleg, who supported Mablung well.

Changes
Finrod made only one personnel change to the squad, replacing Mîm with Hithlum’s energetic midfielder Nienor. Most of the changes they made involved shuffling the players around to bring out the best in them, as well as creating a more cohesive squad.

Defence
In goal, Orodreth replaced Bëor (now stationed at the base of the midfield as a defensive screen) and has done quite well in the friendlies, saving six shots in the game against Armenelos. His save rate of 69.2% is enough for a team who can score a lot—it is certainly an upgrade over Bëor's depressing 52.2% save rate last year. The previous holding midfielder Barahir is now on the left of the back four, leading the defence and offering left-sided width when Nargothrond is in possession. On the right is Guilin, and in the centre are Arminas and Baran. While they still have faults as individual defenders, under Barahir and Orodreth they have become slightly more organised in their coverage and in setting up offside traps.

Attack
Up front, there is a change in shape—where once the trident of Finrod, Glaurung, and Gwindor were spread out across the breadth of the pitch (but with Finrod drifting into central positions), they are now positioned more narrowly. Gwindor and Finrod start as centre forwards, and Glaurung is now in his favoured position ‘in the hole’ behind them, linking midfield and attack. Like Fëanor in AC Beleriand’s current formation, Glaurung is outside the zone of responsibility of opposing defenders, and he has a significant physical advantage over most holding midfielders. Defences are further disorganised by Gwindor’s movement to the right (he is a natural winger) and Finrod’s drifting around the pitch in search for pockets of space (he is a natural playmaker). Whereas Gwindor is usually dealt with by the opposing left-back, Finrod has to be marked by a central defender, since the holding midfielder is already occupied with Glaurung. This will open space for the Glaurung and Nargothrond’s midfielders to run into.

Midfield
Nargothrond’s more advanced midfielders, Nienor and Finduilas, are roughly of the same mould. They are decent tacklers and tireless runners, useful both on attack and defence. Nienor played a wide-shuttling role in last year’s Hithlum squad, and is expected to do so again. Nargothrond presses high up the pitch upon losing possession—this acts as their first line of defence—, with Gwindor marking the left-back and Finrod and Glaurung pressing the two central defenders. Nienor is tasked to move forward and close down the opposing right-back, preventing them from playing the ball forward with ease. Behind them Finduilas marks the opposition’s ball-playing midfielder, and whatever defensive duty they can extract from the slow Bëor is a bonus.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finrod
FORMATION: 4-3-1-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Defence, holding midfielder Bëor.
KEY PLAYER: Glaurung
QUESTION: With Glaurung back in his favoured position, will he play better than he did last year?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Sea



Last year
One of the most unnoticed surprises of last year’s Arda Cup was the fact that an Ulmo-led squad was terrible on defence. Conceding two goals to eventual champions Real Valinor and a Túrin-led Hithlum was somewhat understandable, but allowing the Havens to do the same was eyebrow-raising. And conceding to Valimar, a team that scored but once against an anaemic Hithlum back line, was nothing short of shocking. Were Hithlum and the Sea’s defence on the same level, then? more than one expert asked. Was that notion even possible?

Changes
This year, the Vala of the waters returned to his roots. He has made just a single signing (Gondor shotstopper Hyarmendacil), but he had his squad playing in a way different from last year.

Attack
The changes were felt most strongly up front. Last year’s free-flowing, interchanging Númenórean offence was reined in, with the leading band of midfielders, Tar-Aldarion, Vëantur, and Tar-Meneldur, sitting deeper. This often left lone forward Tar-Minastir cutting a lonely figure higher up the pitch. The front four are still capable of slicing through defences (their quick one-touch passing confused Valimar’s defenders enough to allow Tar-Minastir a clear shot at Manwë’s goal during a friendly match), but the attackers now bear more responsibilities when out of possession.

Midfield and Defence
Former goalkeeper Voronwë has replaced Eriol in the Sea’s defensive midfield band, alongside Tar-Ciryatan. With Ulmo’s renewed commitment to defence (and playing on the break), their sole contribution to the offence is to hoof the ball forward to instigate counterattacking moves.

Behind them are the Sea’s talented defenders—Ulmo and Ossë in the centre, Salmar and Uinen out wide in the left and right, respectively. While the full-backs offer something going forward, and Ulmo is a threat during set-pieces, their main priority is to stifle opposition attackers and deny chances to test their goalkeeper.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Ulmo
FORMATION: 4-5-1/4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defence
WEAKNESS: Lack of creativity.
KEY PLAYER: Hyarmendacil
QUESTION: How much rope will Ulmo give his offence?
__________

Tirion



Last year
Last year’s Tirion were condemned to elimination by the Arda Cup’s group selection committee. In any other group (save E, or possibly G), they would have been favourites to advance. But compared to the teams in last year’s ‘group of death’, they didn’t have the cohesion of Armenelos nor the star power of the two Valinor squads. Being eliminated with zero points was indicative of their level in the group, but not of their talent compared to the rest of the teams at large.

Changes
This year’s changes perhaps didn’t bring them appreciably closer to the level of the Real and FC Valinor, but they’re now placed in a less difficult group (though some pundits still have them missing out on the knockout stages), and they improved significantly, especially on defence. They acquired former right-back Rúmil from Real Valinor, adding defensive solidity to their midfield without sacrificing attacking potential. More importantly, their shambolic back three has been almost completely overhauled.

Defence
Tirion acquired centre-backs Amrod and Amras from Valimar, a team that conceded but once every game in a Group E featuring forwards Túrin, Húrin, Tar-Minastir, Eärendil, and Tuor. Joining the two is their brother Caranthir, fresh from a phenomenal finals performance against Eriador. A central defender in Real Valinor’s cup-winning squad, he now plays on the left as an attacking full-back—his assist for Aredhel’s opener in the friendly against Angband came after an explosive burst down the touchline. On the right is the more defensive full-back Irimë, the only holdover from last year’s defenders.

There are concerns over their goalkeeper Finarfin. He has not brought his club form over to Tirion; he remains middling to poor when playing for Finwë’s squad (65.2% save rate during last year’s Arda Cup compared to 66.7% during this year’s friendlies).

Midfield
In the centre of the midfield are Anairë and Eldalótë, who have demonstrated excellent partnership in two friendly games. They generally stay in position instead of venturing forward. Mahtan, on their left, drifts infield when Tirion is in possession to allow Caranthir to overlap. Rúmil on the right is a more traditional winger, running down the flanks to deliver crosses. Both are defensively solid, allowing Tirion to form a secure barrier ahead of their defence in case they need to play defensively.

Attack
Ahead of them is a solid partnership of Finwë and Aredhel—both are comfortable with being the focal point of the offence or dropping deeper to play off the other. During their first friendly, Rúmil and Caranthir sent crosses into the box for Finwë, whose knockdowns were converted by Aredhel and Mahtan. And then during their second match, Finwë dropped to the midfield to avoid the attention of the Angband defence, while Aredhel sat on the shoulder of the defenders and timed runs on to through passes, one of which he converted for the opener.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finwë
FORMATION: 4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Goalkeeper.
KEY PLAYER: Finwë
QUESTION: Can they beat either the Sea or Nargothrond?
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Group F’s expected finish:

1. The Sea
2. Tirion
3. Nargothrond
4. Minas Tirith