Arda Cup Football 2013

[Nogrod]

GROUP E
Erebor
Eriador
Misty Mts
Wilderland

There seems to be a script ready for this group – and it reads that Eriador will qualify and Misty Mountains stay in the group-phase while Erebor and Wilderland will battle out the other qualifier’s position.

None of the teams from group E played tough opponents in the friendlies, but while other teams allowed zero to one goal in two matches Misty Mts. allowed four. That’s basically their problem – and not having a real Arda-quality offence is another in a group where all the others have tougher than average defences.

Wilderland has changed considerably from last year – including some major losses but also some pretty decent gains. Losing players like Oromë, Galadriel and Elwë would be a blow to any team, but especially getting Thranduil was a good move. Whether that is enough to qualify is then another matter.

Losing two key players Gwaihir from the defence and Thranduil from the offence is bad news indeed for Erebor. Then again they still have two eagles in their defence and Smaug, Bard and a Nazgûl in the offence plus Beorn, one of last year’s stars, on the goal. The positive news for the group phase are of course that Wilderland has also weakened from last season – so it will be all in their own hands.

Common wisdom has it that you shouldn’t change a winning team but Eriador has done some of that leaving many people wondering why. One can explain the changes though, some with moral integrity and others with nepotism – but will it work is then another question. It seems nothing will stop Eriador in the group phase or in the first qualifiers. But will there be a solid and working team to meet some real opposition in the quarters?

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Eriador
Fight for the second spot: Erebor, Wilderland
Will not qualify: Misty Mountains

Scorers: Smaug and Glorfindel will score, Scatha and Thranduil know how to but aren’t as reliable. Azog scored nicely in the fiendlies but in the group-games the defences might be too tough for him.
Defenders & Keepers: Elrond and Beorn keep their sheets clean, Eriador’s defence is overall a smart place to pick players.



GROUP F
Minas Tirith
Nargothrond
The Sea
Tirion

Minas Tirith may be a team of decency and brotherhood, and strengthened with Eomer also a good team – to play against other mediocre teams. But put in to fight for qualification against some real talent and experience they have been given boots too big to fill.

Tirion has changed considerably from last year with some major traffic in and out from the team, but they have seemed to hit a good balance, at least if the friendlies offer a meter for anything: drawing with Angband and taking a clean 2-0 victory from Gondolin show that Tirion is serious this year after their decent fight last year in the “group of death”.

Even if their performance last year left a lot to hope for Nargothrond hasn’t made but one trade for their team for this year changing Mîm to Nienor, but they have shuffled the deck somewhat changing the positions of a few players. And it looks promising for they beat Anfaughlith in the friendlies (last year they draw with them) – and forcing Armenelos into a draw was a great result. They are an offensive powerhouse even The Sea needs to take into account.

Otherwise it looks like The Sea is the best bet for a team to qualify: Ulmo-led Maia-defence and Númenorian midfield and offence look both tight and effective. Beating Valimar and drawing with FC Valinor should tell everyone what is needed on their quality.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will most probably qualify: The Sea
Will fight hard for the second (or first) ticket: Nargothrond, Tirion
Will not qualify: Minas Tirith

Scorers: Anyone from the Nargothrond offence is a good idea as are Aredhel and Finwë. Mardil has been devastating in the friendlies but with the level of the defences going up his scoring will come to a halt.
Defenders & Keepers: If The Sea’s defences can deny FC Valinor a goal they can do it to any other team as well (even if we do not suggest you trust all your phantasy-defence with them in the game against Nargothrond). Finarfin is a quality keeper and Caranthir might bring in occasional extra-points.



GROUP G
Angband
Anfauglith
Imladris
Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Group G is one more group where one team is levels below the others and whose only role is to tease the bigger teams and try its hardest for luck to shine on them and give a comfort-goal somewhere. Imladris has just that position in this group. But the others will really fight it out – and we mean really fight for these are no mr. niceguys who play in this group.

Anfaughlith quite never delivered the last year even if they didn’t play badly. From since they have changed their offense completely and with Ecthelion and Gothmog leading it they look much sharper and more dangerous this year. That said they lost both their friendlies, even if quite closely (1-2 both) to some pretty tough teams (AC Beleriand and Nargothrond). In this group they need to start winning and it will be tough against the two other top teams of the group.

Putting Morgoth and Ancalagon together spells trouble to anyone daring to challenge the two – and adding Carcaroth to the goal makes the opposite-side’s efforts at scoring in jeopardy. But they all have been vanquished every now and then – and there resides the hope of other teams again this powerhouse of evil. Interestingly they opened their season with two draws in the friendlies. Now they need two wins to qualify.

With some of the restraints cancelled and a few smart picks from the player-market – and an added 16 million in the budget – T-I-G is suddenly looking just as dangeorus it was years ago on their hayday. And they have been like a whirldwind in the friendlies fex. breaking Melian’s Girdle into pieces with a ravaging 3-0 score.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (most probably) qualify: Angband, Tol In Gaurhoth
Fights for the second spot: Anfaughlith
Will not qualify: Imladris

Scorers: Gothmog and Ancalagon are safe bets – and if you can affrod one star using it to Morgoth is a star well spent. T-I-G scores a lot in general but the scoring is often spread so it’s hard to give other advice but that it is always useful to have PhantomWolf in your team.
Defenders & Keepers: T-I-G has a tough defence and a classy keeper and same could be said of Angband. No reasonable player would pick players to his defence from Imladris on this group.



GROUP H
Anduin
Arnor
Mordor
Rohan

There seems always to be a group that is a collection of second-rate teams who’d be wiped out in any other group, but as they are brought together they have suddenly a chance to qualify and to compete for the bigger sums offered to qualifiers. And to be sure, they can form entertaining groups and ones that are very hard to predict – like group H in this year’s tournament.

Although one thing we can assure the readers already – and that is that Mordor will not qualify. They are a lousy team even in this group and they seem content to that state of affairs as they have nothing to lose: with 51 million in investment they will gain 9 million in profit even if they lose every game 0-6.

Rohan got as far as the quarterfinals last year but has changed a lot since. With almost 30 million vanished from the investments it is easy to see the level of players has just collapsed. From outside their realm they have only managed to recruit Faramir to play beside his wife – while losing home-grown stars like Eorl, Eomer and Shadowfax to other teams. They still beat Isengard in the friendlies though… as they should.

If you just look at the teams in paper you’d think Arnor has what it takes to just fly through this group but sadly for them paper seems to differ from reality. Having the always scoring Witch King in the offence should make any team uneasy, and having Elendil and Malbeth to shut the defence in front of Arvedui, who after all is a quality keeper, should make opposite offences insecure. Well, their defences have held nicely (against pretty poor offences) but they have themselves scored only one goal in two games. That’s their problem.

Anduin doesn’t boast of any superstars but might just be the most consistent team of this group – there seem not to be weak links or areas of the game they’d be especially bad. Also drawing with Shire-Bree and losing only 0-1 to Eriador in the friendlies are promising signs making them slight favourites to win this group.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will (probably) qualify: Anduin, Arnor
Fights for the second spot: Rohan
Will not qualify: Mordor

Scorers: The Witch King should deliver, he normally does. But will he?
Defenders & Keepers: Arnor and Anduin have the best defences here and with no teams having a master-scoring offence, players from both could be decent picks during the group-stage.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Minas Tirith



Last year
Minas Tirith sprang two of the biggest surprises of the 2012 Arda Cup, advancing to the knockout stage ahead of Sauron’s Barad-dûr and a Mordor squad that was six minutes from taking second seed. Then in the first round the Stewards beat Morgoth’s Angband in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes of play.

Minas Tirith were a hardy squad, tactically sound as well as athletically fit. They were unlikely to beat themselves, so it fell upon the opposition to exploit their weaknesses: they’re not solid at the back (having conceded first in all their five games) and not imposing up front, either.

Changes
Since then they’ve replaced attacking midfielder Faramir with Éomer from Rohan, as well as drafting his horse Firefoot at right-back. But fundamentally, Minas Tirith’s identity hasn’t changed. They remain a tactically versatile team, with the personnel to carry out whatever system they use.

Attack
The Stewards’ flexibility starts up front, where a mobile and energetic Boromir I is fielded as a lone forward. Leading the line as a target of long passes, he can also participate in the build-up play, allowing Mardil and Éomer to get ahead of him on the attack. When out of possession, he prevents defenders from making easy passes into the midfield, disrupting the opposition’s build-up play.

Behind him is a band of three attacking midfielders. Mardil on the left is the most talented of the three, preferring to drift inside and storm into the penalty box (and opening up space for left-back Cirion to run into). Éomer in the centre drifts from wing to wing, but can also play through passes for runners (as he did twice for Mardil in the friendlies). Telumehtar on the right, a fullback last year, is more defensive, since most left-backs are more attacking than their counterparts on the right (Barahir and Caranthir are examples in this group), but he is also capable of making a run for the byline and putting in a cross.

Midfield and Defence
Behind them is a well-balanced midfield pivot—Tarondor is a bustling box-to-box midfielder, willing to put in a crunching tackle (earning him two yellow cards in two friendly matches) as well as breaking forward in possession (he played a neat one-two with Mardil vs Gondor). Beside him is Eärnil II, a true holding midfielder who also makes short simple passes to start the attack.

The defence they are protecting consists of Eärnur and Ecthelion II in the centre, Firefoot on the right, and the more attacking Cirion on the left. And in goal is Denethor II, the squad captain and the leader of their defence. His save rate is down (66.7% in the friendlies compared to 73.3% during last year’s tournament), but many expect him to improve once the actual games start.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Denethor II
FORMATION: 4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: pressing, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Cohesive team.
WEAKNESS: So-so defence, lack of a reliable goalscoring threat.
KEY PLAYER: Mardil
QUESTION: Can their ‘scoring by committee’ approach work against quality defences (like the Sea’s) or outscore more talented offences (like Tirion and Nargothrond’s)?
__________

Nargothrond



Last year
Last year’s Nargothrond were a poorly constructed squad, top heavy, stocked with functional midfielders, but sorely lacking in defence. This frailty at the back was exposed early in the tournament when Thuringwethil single-handedly outfoxed and outfought Nargothrond’s four defenders to score a brace. Their whole squad’s problems were then exposed in the next game, when AC Beleriand hammered them with five goals, conceding only one in return, which was scored early in the first half before AC Bel had imposed their dominance on the game.

Their defenders needed protection that holding midfielder Barahir couldn’t provide alone. But with Finrod taking Glaurung’s place as poacher, there was no one to link midfield and attack, forcing the midfielders to push forward. That Mablung, despite being less dominating than Thuringwethil, scored a hat trick against them was due to the fact that, with Nargothrond’s midfielders pushing forward to support the attack (they had a huge goal difference to make up), their back line was exposed to three-on-four situations—two of those three were technically gifted Lúthien and Beleg, who supported Mablung well.

Changes
Finrod made only one personnel change to the squad, replacing Mîm with Hithlum’s energetic midfielder Nienor. Most of the changes they made involved shuffling the players around to bring out the best in them, as well as creating a more cohesive squad.

Defence
In goal, Orodreth replaced Bëor (now stationed at the base of the midfield as a defensive screen) and has done quite well in the friendlies, saving six shots in the game against Armenelos. His save rate of 69.2% is enough for a team who can score a lot—it is certainly an upgrade over Bëor's depressing 52.2% save rate last year. The previous holding midfielder Barahir is now on the left of the back four, leading the defence and offering left-sided width when Nargothrond is in possession. On the right is Guilin, and in the centre are Arminas and Baran. While they still have faults as individual defenders, under Barahir and Orodreth they have become slightly more organised in their coverage and in setting up offside traps.

Attack
Up front, there is a change in shape—where once the trident of Finrod, Glaurung, and Gwindor were spread out across the breadth of the pitch (but with Finrod drifting into central positions), they are now positioned more narrowly. Gwindor and Finrod start as centre forwards, and Glaurung is now in his favoured position ‘in the hole’ behind them, linking midfield and attack. Like Fëanor in AC Beleriand’s current formation, Glaurung is outside the zone of responsibility of opposing defenders, and he has a significant physical advantage over most holding midfielders. Defences are further disorganised by Gwindor’s movement to the right (he is a natural winger) and Finrod’s drifting around the pitch in search for pockets of space (he is a natural playmaker). Whereas Gwindor is usually dealt with by the opposing left-back, Finrod has to be marked by a central defender, since the holding midfielder is already occupied with Glaurung. This will open space for the Glaurung and Nargothrond’s midfielders to run into.

Midfield
Nargothrond’s more advanced midfielders, Nienor and Finduilas, are roughly of the same mould. They are decent tacklers and tireless runners, useful both on attack and defence. Nienor played a wide-shuttling role in last year’s Hithlum squad, and is expected to do so again. Nargothrond presses high up the pitch upon losing possession—this acts as their first line of defence—, with Gwindor marking the left-back and Finrod and Glaurung pressing the two central defenders. Nienor is tasked to move forward and close down the opposing right-back, preventing them from playing the ball forward with ease. Behind them Finduilas marks the opposition’s ball-playing midfielder, and whatever defensive duty they can extract from the slow Bëor is a bonus.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finrod
FORMATION: 4-3-1-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Defence, holding midfielder Bëor.
KEY PLAYER: Glaurung
QUESTION: With Glaurung back in his favoured position, will he play better than he did last year?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Sea



Last year
One of the most unnoticed surprises of last year’s Arda Cup was the fact that an Ulmo-led squad was terrible on defence. Conceding two goals to eventual champions Real Valinor and a Túrin-led Hithlum was somewhat understandable, but allowing the Havens to do the same was eyebrow-raising. And conceding to Valimar, a team that scored but once against an anaemic Hithlum back line, was nothing short of shocking. Were Hithlum and the Sea’s defence on the same level, then? more than one expert asked. Was that notion even possible?

Changes
This year, the Vala of the waters returned to his roots. He has made just a single signing (Gondor shotstopper Hyarmendacil), but he had his squad playing in a way different from last year.

Attack
The changes were felt most strongly up front. Last year’s free-flowing, interchanging Númenórean offence was reined in, with the leading band of midfielders, Tar-Aldarion, Vëantur, and Tar-Meneldur, sitting deeper. This often left lone forward Tar-Minastir cutting a lonely figure higher up the pitch. The front four are still capable of slicing through defences (their quick one-touch passing confused Valimar’s defenders enough to allow Tar-Minastir a clear shot at Manwë’s goal during a friendly match), but the attackers now bear more responsibilities when out of possession.

Midfield and Defence
Former goalkeeper Voronwë has replaced Eriol in the Sea’s defensive midfield band, alongside Tar-Ciryatan. With Ulmo’s renewed commitment to defence (and playing on the break), their sole contribution to the offence is to hoof the ball forward to instigate counterattacking moves.

Behind them are the Sea’s talented defenders—Ulmo and Ossë in the centre, Salmar and Uinen out wide in the left and right, respectively. While the full-backs offer something going forward, and Ulmo is a threat during set-pieces, their main priority is to stifle opposition attackers and deny chances to test their goalkeeper.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Ulmo
FORMATION: 4-5-1/4-2-3-1
PLAYING STYLE: defensive, counterattacking
STRENGTH: Defence
WEAKNESS: Lack of creativity.
KEY PLAYER: Hyarmendacil
QUESTION: How much rope will Ulmo give his offence?
__________

Tirion



Last year
Last year’s Tirion were condemned to elimination by the Arda Cup’s group selection committee. In any other group (save E, or possibly G), they would have been favourites to advance. But compared to the teams in last year’s ‘group of death’, they didn’t have the cohesion of Armenelos nor the star power of the two Valinor squads. Being eliminated with zero points was indicative of their level in the group, but not of their talent compared to the rest of the teams at large.

Changes
This year’s changes perhaps didn’t bring them appreciably closer to the level of the Real and FC Valinor, but they’re now placed in a less difficult group (though some pundits still have them missing out on the knockout stages), and they improved significantly, especially on defence. They acquired former right-back Rúmil from Real Valinor, adding defensive solidity to their midfield without sacrificing attacking potential. More importantly, their shambolic back three has been almost completely overhauled.

Defence
Tirion acquired centre-backs Amrod and Amras from Valimar, a team that conceded but once every game in a Group E featuring forwards Túrin, Húrin, Tar-Minastir, Eärendil, and Tuor. Joining the two is their brother Caranthir, fresh from a phenomenal finals performance against Eriador. A central defender in Real Valinor’s cup-winning squad, he now plays on the left as an attacking full-back—his assist for Aredhel’s opener in the friendly against Angband came after an explosive burst down the touchline. On the right is the more defensive full-back Irimë, the only holdover from last year’s defenders.

There are concerns over their goalkeeper Finarfin. He has not brought his club form over to Tirion; he remains middling to poor when playing for Finwë’s squad (65.2% save rate during last year’s Arda Cup compared to 66.7% during this year’s friendlies).

Midfield
In the centre of the midfield are Anairë and Eldalótë, who have demonstrated excellent partnership in two friendly games. They generally stay in position instead of venturing forward. Mahtan, on their left, drifts infield when Tirion is in possession to allow Caranthir to overlap. Rúmil on the right is a more traditional winger, running down the flanks to deliver crosses. Both are defensively solid, allowing Tirion to form a secure barrier ahead of their defence in case they need to play defensively.

Attack
Ahead of them is a solid partnership of Finwë and Aredhel—both are comfortable with being the focal point of the offence or dropping deeper to play off the other. During their first friendly, Rúmil and Caranthir sent crosses into the box for Finwë, whose knockdowns were converted by Aredhel and Mahtan. And then during their second match, Finwë dropped to the midfield to avoid the attention of the Angband defence, while Aredhel sat on the shoulder of the defenders and timed runs on to through passes, one of which he converted for the opener.

Quick Guide
CAPTAIN: Finwë
FORMATION: 4-4-2
PLAYING STYLE: attacking, pressing
STRENGTH: Attackers.
WEAKNESS: Goalkeeper.
KEY PLAYER: Finwë
QUESTION: Can they beat either the Sea or Nargothrond?
__________

Group F’s expected finish:

1. The Sea
2. Tirion
3. Nargothrond
4. Minas Tirith

[Nogrod]

Group A


Armenelos vs. The Havens

Both teams have been scoring and allowing goals pretty heavily. Even if it has also something to do with the opposition they’ve had in the friendlies it still tells one that both teams are perfectly cabable of scoring and neither has a defence of steel. So look forwards to some scoring with this game.

Both teams have lost to a contender to the whole cup and drawn with a serious team so the set up is both interesting and evenish. The winner of this one will be very near qualification already after the first game so the stakes are high – and a draw is a possibility.

Some factors do suggest Armenelos are slight favourites over The Havens.

First of all Armenelos has two sharp-shooters who can win games alone aka. Elros and Ar Pharazôn, whilst the Havens has to trust Eärendil will score (he has been in flames in the friendlies to be sure) – but Armenelos also has Ar Adunakhôr and Tar Ancalimôn in front who are more than perfectly measuring up to anything Cirdan or Falastur might have up in their sleeve on the other end.

Secondly, on overall terms Armenelos looks like a more solid team with basically no weak links anywhere whereas The Havens has some weaknesses in the center midfield – and partly in the defence. Also Tar Atanamir and Amandil might be more or less equal goalies but Tar Atanamir has a lot more experience and is probably an inch more reliable because of that.

The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1.


The Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar

Valimar hasn’t been too convincing in the friendlies even if one pays heed to the toughness of their opponents. Unless Arien finds her place in the Valimar attack there isn’t too much for them and their supporters to look forwards to this year. To their relief they can start the tournament with yet one more rehersal-game as there is no way the Barrow-Downs will pose any threat to Valimar – or to any other teams of the group.

Now you may ask “what about Bombadil?”, and you are right in asking that question. Old Tom is one of the best players in the whole Arda, but even he can’t win games single-handedly. Just look at the rosters and behold: Manwë, Mandos, Lórien, Arien, Estë, Vairë… and one Bombadil to beat them?

The Barrow-Wight is a good player as well, and the other Wights could prove their worth with the Saucepan Man and Hookbill – but yet they are just on another plane. Unless of course there is something only Manwë and Mandos understand regarding to Eru’s plans and therefore “miracles happen”.

But rather than betting on that the AKM suggests you bet for Valimar to win the game – but not with any humiliating scorelines, unless Arien finds her touch and is given the freedom to score.

The AKM predicts: Valimar wins 1-0 or 2-0 (2-1).


Group B


Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United

Whichever team wins this game is a major step nearer qualification as it is hard to believe both teams could beat AC Beleriand so that they both had a chance to qualify. And there will be no lesser team than Gondolin to mix in.

Comparing this group to fex. group H makes one smile or weep – depending on one’s character.

Anyway, Inter Beleriand is putting on some real effort this year and seem to be very serious with their goal of qualification. And they are put into the hardest test possible already in their first competitive game facing the masters of defence Dwarves United who have only strengthened their defence from last year by hiring Galadriel to protect their goal.

The game smells of a draw, but yet there are also certain factors that might change it. Last year Erebor was able to break Dwarves Utd’s defences for good, but then they had a dragon to do that. Now Galadriel’s cousins Fingon and Maedhros are no dragons but could be considered tough enough to have a chance trying. On the dwarven side, last year the responsibilty for scoring was laid more or less solely on the shoulders of Celebrimbor (from the defence!). This season Telchar has scored a goal – and all eyes are keen on Legolas to finally show why he is paid double the salary of Telchar.

To summarize: Dwarves United has issues with scoring but defends masterfully. Inter in turn has strengthened considerably by getting Beren to aid in the offence and Lúthien sure makes the life even harder for the Dwarven attackers. A low-scoring draw then?

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (0-0) or Inter wins 1-0.


AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin

AC Beleriand is one of the favourites to win the whole tournament and faces now a “must-win” game against Gondolin. And seeing that Gondolin was able to stop Hithlum on the second round of friendlies it is clear they are not looking forwards to a lazy afternoon walk in the park. This group is a pain for every team.

Gondolin on the other hand seems to be facing yet another uphill-struggle. Last year they were able to qualify before Inter Beleriand but were kicked off from the tournament by none other team but AC Beleriand on the first play-off round.

Now many think Gondolin has actually strengthened somewhat for this year even if they have almost the same budget they had last year (a lot depends on whether you think changing Gothmog into Tuor and Idril is a good or bad change). But to their horror both Beleriand teams have not only poured in more money, but they have strengthened seriously with that added cash. And the Dwarves United have gotten Galadriel to keep their goal to make scoring against them even harder.

Why AC Beleriand then wins this game? Tirion showed the defences of Gondolin can be opened and if that was done with the offensive trio Mahtan, Aredhel and Finwë, then why not with the quartet Fëanor, Eöl, Aegnor and Angrod? There are certain striking similarities there – and AC Beleriand will cling on them.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Group C


Hithlum vs. Real Valinor

One of the fanciest games of the first round – if not even the killer of the round. Two teams both with budgets over 100 million aim high this year – and not qualifying would be a disaster. Although the game isn’t such a “win or die” -one (like Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves Utd. or Erebor vs. wilderland will be) as even the team that doesn’t win has everything in it’s own hands, and by beating both Shire-Bree and Doriath will qualify – something you could imagine both teams more than cabable of doing whatever happens in this game.

Many thought – the AKM included – that Real Valinor had weakened considerably from last year by selling two key-players off but looking at the friendlies it seems they haven’t weakened an inch. On the contrary: the champions of the last season look as sharp and devastating as ever and will seriously compete for renewing their title of the champions.

Hithlum in turn has strengthened considerably and is mortgaging all the belongings of the great house of Hador to change their fortunes this time around. With Beleg back on Túrin’s side and Húrin and Hador as constant threats around them there is no team in this tournament that could just count on shutting them out.

As both teams leak somewhat in their defences and score heavily one might look forwards to a feast of goals – and the deciding factor will be whether one can outscore the other. The game really feels like a draw as both teams would be quite content with it but if forced to bet on one team winn ing the AKM might put their money for Real Valinor.

The AKM predicts: draw 3-3.


Shire-Bree United vs. Doriath

The name of the game is clear. The team losing this game will need to say farewell to any dreams of qualifying this year as that would more or less demand them to beat both Real Valinor and Hithlum in the next games – a challenge only a few teams could match even in principle.

That said the winner isn’t having any better chances in qualifying as they’d need still put one of the two giants of this group behind them. But surely one miracle is more probable than two.

It is hard to compare the friendlies the two have played when Doriath was completely overrun by a truck named T-I-G while Shire-Bree had to do a full day’s work to beat the Barrow-Downs. On the other games Shire-Bree was left with a draw against Anduin while Doriath lost after a good fight to Inter Beleriand only 0-1.

Shire-Bree has in a way better-looking results but Doriath has faced a caliber or two tougher teams. So fex. allowing goals: it looks like Doriath allows a lot of goals (four in two matches) and Shire-Bree scores nicely (three in two) – so Shire-Bree will score against Doriath a few goals with some ease?

Well, first of all Doriath conceded three goals against the hurricane called T-I-G and actually defended well enough allowing a tough team like Inter Beleriand (Maedhros, Fingon, Beren) only to score one. Meanwhile Shire-Bree scored only two against one of the weakest teams, the Barrow-Downs, and only managed one goal against the at best mediocre team of Anduin.

Doriath’s scoring-form remains unknown though and Shire-Bree’s defence against serious opposition is totally untested as yet, so it is hard to predict the outcome.

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1.


Group D


Isengard vs. FC Valinor

No sane person would bet on Isengard on this one. Eönwe, Thorondor and Huan are more than a match for Saruman however powerful Maia he might be – and totally unimpressed by a Nazgûl. And if someone is fit to fool the ents in the defence it is Yavanna, not to talk of the brothers Curufin and Celegorm who will just frighten the living daylights off the Isengard-orcs however bred to stand light they would be.

Indeed the AKM will predict a slaughter here.

The ball is round and sometimes even the best teams just have a bad day – or the lousy teams surprise everyone – but it is not this day and this game where that happens.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-0 (4-0).


Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor

The stakes are high in a game between Barad Dûr and Gondor, as it more or less decides the other qualifier from this group – unless Isengard organises a super-surprise and beats them both in the later games. Which the AKM will not believe they will do.

In a way it is a game of the Gondorian kings against Sauron’s Foreign Legion of beasts, eastern wizards, Black Númenorians and other darker characters from the outskirts of the Gondorian realm. So it is fitting as well that it is just these two teams battling it out in the football field. There will be some extra sparks in the air when Eldacar and Castamir, or Anárion and Sauron to that matter, meet again. And only one of the two teams has a chance to flourish.

Looking at the firendlies it might look like Gondor would be the more effective team of the two – although their draw with Minas Tirith doesn’t look that impressive. Meanwhile, even if their scoring has been lower Barad Dûr has drawn with Arnor which is definitively better team than Minas Tirith, and they have beaten Misty Mountains – which in turn is definitively tougher team than Mordor whom Gondor beat in their first friendly game.

So even if this game too smells somewhat like a draw the AKM would give an edge to Barad Dûr – not the least because they have Sauron who is not used into losing on the initial rounds of any effort he gives.

The AKM predicts: Barad Dûr wins 2-1, or a draw 1-1.


Group E


Eriador vs. Misty Mountains

Eriador should win Misty Mountains and even quite comfortably if they look forwards to achieving glory in the tournament this year. The only questionmark is the current readiness and striking power of Eriador as they have not been tested in the friendlies for real.

Misty Mountains in turn has toughened their defences with Gwaihir and Caradhras (in exchange to the two soft-headed trolls Tom and Bert) but has still given up two goals in both of its friendlies – against quite modest teams of Imladris and Barad Dûr.

So in comparison Eriador should score at least three. The question being only, can they do that now when it is needed and there is no Witch King to do that for them? Glorfindel sure is ready for it, but how about Isildur, Arveleg or NogWight – they’d need to start to deliver if Eriador wishes to go far in this tournament. And with that kind of investment it is clear that is what they mean – and mean it seriously.

Some pressure on team Eriador then while Misty Mountains have nothing to lose from this game as their primary targets will be Erebor and Wilderland – and thusly the second qualification. That spells for a more even game.

The AKM predicts: Eriador wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Erebor vs. Wilderland

No soft beginnings for the two teams here but possibly the single most important game in the group-rounds will be given to them as starters. Now Misty Mountains might prove a problem to either of the two and both have a chance to beat Eridor on a great day, but just looking at it from a conservative POV it is this game they have to win if they wish to qualify – and losing this particular game would be the worst case scenario for both of them.

With little to say from the friendlies – both did win some of the poorest teams of the tournament with dismal records and Wilderland draw goalless with the Dwarves Utd. – one does well to look at the rosters.

Beorn against the Great Warg. Point for Erebor from goalkeepers.

In defence two eagles, Thorin Oakenshield and the last lord of the Dale against two ents, an elven king and a wizard. The two eagles make it turn just so to the side of Erebor.

In the midfield a dwarven warrior-king, his human fellow-king in arms and the orc-leader (Azog’s son) Bolg against the pretty sad “first-awaken” and an entwife. No problem in giving the point to Erebor.

The offence looks the closest. The two Nazgûl kind of cancel each other out. Smaug gets the better of the two dragons but then again Thranduil beats Bard in scoring quite easily – especially as Bard has been quite disappointing this year after his great season last year. Draw here, or a slight edge to Wilderland.

So two points to Erebor from goalkeeping and the midfield, and half points to Erebor from the defence and Wilderland for offence – two and a half agains half points.

The AKM predicts: Erebor wins 2-1 (or they draw 2-2).


Group F


Nargothrond vs. Minas Tirith

Now Minas Tirith is not a bad team and they will be full of energy to show especially the big media that they are no pushovers. But it might just be they have had the worst of luck with the lottery for the groups and will have no chance to show the Arda how good they could have been against a little lesser opponents than the ones they meet in this group.

For it is just true that all the other teams of the group: The Sea, Nargothrond and Tirion could all go as far as the semifinals, or even further on a good day – and at the same time at least one of them will stay in the group-stage. Now whether they are willing to let Minas Tirith come and muddle the already tough competition for the two qualifying places can be asked but the answer is clear.

That said Nargothrond has one of the most crushing offences this tournament has and they have scored five goals in two games against such tough adversaries that only Real Valinor might boast of a similar feat. And with Minas Tirith giving in two goals to both Erebor and Gondor one might foresee that Nargothrond will score at least as much, if not more against them.

So the rest depends merely on whether Mardil can still score when the real games begin – or whether fex. Boromir comes alive again. Nargothrond isn’t exactly the champions of defence and their game-plan often is just outscoring the opponent. So how many Minas Tirith will score?

The AKM predicts: Nargothrond wins 3-1 (4-2).


Tirion vs. The Sea

A very important game for both teams here as a loss would make qualification a lot harder for either team. That in turn smells like a draw, but lets see what could make it otherwise.

Now the Sea likes to play from defence onwards and to suffocate any enemy offences. You could say it is easy to do that to Valimar if you have players with enough quality as they won’t rage back, but to shut out FC Valinor is a deed indeed – and showing they can do it they have also warned all the other teams that people should not only talk of the Dwarves Utd. as a team that can kill off the opponent’s attacking spirits.

That said Tirion has shown their defences are not bad either. Shutting out Gondolin is a fair result and only allowing Angband one goal isn’t bad either. But on the other end of the field they scored two against Gondolin and one against Angband showing also their potential in scoring.

So it will be a fight on one hand of Aredhel, Finwë and Mahtan against Tar Aldarion and Tar Minastir – and on the other the sons of Fëanor against the Ulmo led Maiar in defence.

It would be easy to say that Tirion gets the points from offence and The Sea from defence.

So a draw then? Most probably.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (0-0).


Group G


Anfaughlith vs. Imladris

Give Imladris a little easier group and they’d fight for qualification with their Varda-led defence, but sadly they have been allotted into a group of some real bloodthirsty beasts and greater evil only too happy to play it vicious, cruel and aggressive.

But maybe, in a sense, it is fitting that it is exactly Elbereth GIlthoniel who is leading the one team of light facing Morgoth, Ungoliant and the Werewolves. Maybe.

The hope Imladris has in this game relies in Varda taking out Gothmog and the other defenders being able to deal with Ecthelion together. That accomplished they might hope for a low scoring game from Ungoliant’s team. And it is here where losing Elros from the goal seems to cut deep.

On the other end Elladan and Elrohir would need to score past the Balrogs and finally Ungoliant which seems like a bit too tough a task to ask from the noble but young elves. So we probably don’t see too many goals on Anfaughlith’s end either.

Anfaughlith will score at least one. Will Imladris be able to counter that is the question.

The AKM predicts: Anfaughlith wins 1-0 (2-1), or they draw 1-1.


Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth

If Hithlum vs. Real Valinor is one of the highlights of this round then this one is the other. There will be blood on the arena and the fight will be tough. And there is a reason for both teams not willing to lose this game, or to come second in their group in general as that would most probably mean facing AC Beleriand on the first round of the play-offs – something no sane team would do voluntarily.

Now whether the werewolves of the T-I-G are sane is another matter altogether. And anyway, even the winner of the group will have a tough opponent in Inter Beleriand, Dwarves Utd. or Gondolin. And Anfaughlith sure wants to mess with the qualifying as well. Both teams just need a win then and so neither will settle with a draw unless it is the last minutes.

Angband has drawn with Hithlum and Tirion in the friendlies while T-I-G has beaten Doriath for good and won the Havens 2-1. So what to make of it? Basically nothing. Angband has drawn with really tough teams and T-I-G has won somewhat weaker ones (even though Havens is actually quite a good team).

At the goal ShastaWolf has proved to be a top keeper during the years, but so has Carcaroth. There is no clear difference there even if ShastaWolf might be just that weeny bit more reliable.

In defence T-I-G has the more solid team overall with three werewolves, including the sire of all werewolves Draugluin. But aided with a Balrog and Tevildo’s servant Umuiyan Angband has Morgoth – the kind of a clutch-player any team would envy weren’t he what he is. Yet Morgoth’s presence makes it a draw in defence, if not turns it slightly on their favour.

The midfield is the weak spot for both teams, but one where the easterlings of Angband seem to match the Wights of T-I-G. But Phantomwolf might just be a more dangerous player compared to Oikeroi – even if the latter has a close relationship with their forwards Tevildo and Phantomwolf lacks his longtime-mate NogWolf from the attack.

In offence Thuringwethil beats Tevildo quite easily but then again Ancalagon is a greater threat than InzilWolf – even if the latter can be a menacing forwards as well.

So all in all it is very even indeed – but maybe surpisingly to some – the slight edge would go to Tol In Gaurhoth –team. A lot depends on the role Morgoth is willing to play though.

The AKM predicts: Draw 2-2, or T-I-G wins 3-2.


Group H


Mordor vs. Rohan

Now many words have been used describing the “under-budgeting” of team Mordor and how they have no chance whatsoever to do anything. But happily for them they are in a group where even such a bunch of players with no expectations could play a part – if not otherwise then as kingmakers.

Even if the level of the game in group H isn’t exactly blinding it has made the betting agencies and media-houses make different predictions and is honestly quite a tough group to call. But what most agencies have in common is the fact that Mordor does not figure in their predictions as a qualifier – and the AKM agrees with that verdict.

Like said, even if they wouldn’t be qualifying they might make a difference and it is easy to see that their Nazgûls and Shelob might affect especially a team like Rohan – and to have the least extra effect on Anduin.

What gives hope to Rohan is that Gondor beat Mordor 3-1 in the friendlies and they’d only need to gather the pride and strength of their ancient neighbours to do the same – but that is the trick. Winning Isengard is another thing than meeting the beasts of Mordor even if their game isn’t any better than what Isengard has to offer. And one does well to remember that Mordor only lost to Erebor 0-1.

The AKM predicts: Rohan wins 1-0 or a draw 0-0.


Anduin vs. Arnor

Many think this to be the game that decides the winner of the group – others think Rohan has a word to say in it. Be that as it may, it will be a tough game and very hard to call.

The AKM has Anduin as the favourites to win this game because of two reasons: more solid performance in the friendlies and a more solid team. Let us be particular about those.

In the friendlies Anduin lost to Eriador only 0-1 and draw with Shire-Bree while Arnor draw with both Barad Dûr and Imladris. Both teams scored only one goal in the two friendlies they played but Anduin allowed one in both whereas Arnor allowed only one.

Now of the teams they met Eriador should be on the league of it’s own and thusly the result should be taken as what it is – a good performance. Also Shire-Bree with it’s Gandalf-led offence looks a bit sharper than Imladris or Barad Dûr, even if the difference isn’t that great. So taken that together, Anduin has a better record from the friendlies.

As we look at the rosters Arnor has the Witch King in the offence and Elendil and Malbeth in defence and Arvedui at the goal. That is pretty decent but the other players are not even near the quality of the aforementioned.

Anduin instead has not the kind of stars like the Witch King, but has depth beyond Arnor – and some pretty well-seasoned players as well; like Grimbeorn and Eorl in the attack, Boromir and Haldir in the midfield, and Fram, Celeborn and Felarof in the defence. Amroth isn’t probably as great a keeper than Arvedui but he’s a seasoned one as well and can do his job well enough – at least for this group.

So unless the Witch King gets a boost and goes for a rampage Anduin will win it – even if a draw is a possible scenario as well.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0 (or a draw 0-0).