Arda Cup Football 2013

[Boromir88]

TTN's Stars (Round 1)
-Boro88

One thing we wanted to add to this year's Arda Cup is the "Star Performances." AKM launced their own "AKM Stars", but they've dropped the concept the past couple years. TTN wanted to add something noticeably different to their phantasy coverage this year, so we've come up with a revised "Stars" concept, and a different methodology from AKM's to highlight the best individual performances every round.

*Disclaimer: TTN's Stars are completely separate from the "star players" when picking phantasy players. This is simply our way of highlighting the top performances from each round. So, if TTN gives One Star to Tar Atanamir, that does not mean Tar Atanamir costs one "*" on your phantasy teams now.


Now here's how TTN has decided to award their stars. We had our field of reporters attending every match in every group and they picked the best players nominating from 2 to 4 for consideration in each match.

We obviously can't award every FW who scored a goal with stars, or every GK who saved 3/3...etc. So our panel deliberated, making cases for why so-and-so should be awarded a star (or why someone should be dropped off the list for this round) and how many stars someone should be awarded. Here is the system for this year.

Top Game performers "One Star" (5 at each position)

Top position performers "Two Star" (2 at each position)

Best Round Performance "Three Star" (One player, position doesn't matter)

Sometimes just scoring a goal or a couple assists isn't going to be good enough when stacked up to other players, so we had to take into account several different factors in coming to the final decisions. Factors included: strength of opponent, strength of victory, impact on the game (a MF scoring a game winning goal with under 10 minutes left is going to carry more weight than a MF scoring a single-goal in a 4-0 blowout for example).

We won't explain every choice made by the panel, but we will try to explain the choices that were the most contentious and debated.

ONE STAR

Goalies
Marach (AC Beleriand)
Ungoliant (Angfauglith)
ShastaWolf (TIG)
Amroth (Anduin)
Silent Watcher (Mordor)

The goalies were pretty much easily agreed on. Manwe was the one left off during the vetting process, because despite saving 3/3, our experts agreed it was against a weak opponent (The Barrow-downs) and other players for Valimar (namely Irmo) had a larger impact on the game.

Defenders
Maglor (FC Valinor)
Barahir (Nargothrond)
Tilion (Real Valinor)
Alatar (Barad-Dur)
Aragorn (Eriador)

A shutout plus an assist from a defender pretty much assured you of catching our attention and thus being awarded with at least one star (Maglor and Barahir). The debate came in when trying to decide if a defender who got the shutout has more impact than a defender who gave up 1 goal, but also contributed with an assist, in most cases we sided with the latter.

Real Valinor allowing only 1-goal against the deadly Hithlum attack, is worthy of notice, and then adding Tilion's key assist in the game it was a no-brainer. The other two were a little more hotly contested, but in the end Alatar's assist in a 1-1 draw was a big result in the game against Gondor. And Aragorn's assist in the 2-1 victory against the Misty Mountains had more impact than Luthien shutting down the pathetic Dwarve's United attack, or the Balrogs from Angfauglith shutting down the equally as bad Imladris attack.

Mid-fielders
Turambar (Gondor)
Nessa (Real Valinor)
Glorfindel (Eriador)
Nazgul #3 (Wilderland)
Nazgul #2 (Mordor)

The toughest choice here was 3 players (Turambar, Glorfindel, and SallyWight) battling it out for essentially 2 spots. Glorfindel's game-winner in the 87th minute held the biggest impact on the game. Where case for SallyWight was stronger opponent and stronger victory. But looking at other TIG performers (Shastawolf and NilpWolf), not that SallyWight's goal had no impact on the game, but just not as large of an impact as those two, nor as large as Glorfindel's game winner. Turambar's goal in the 1-1 draw vs. Barad-dur was also key. Without Turambar's performance, Gondor loses that game.

Forwards
Smaug (Erebor)
Earendil (Havens)
Feanor (AC Belerind)
Ecthelion (Angfauglith)
Ar Pharazon (Armenelos)

Ar Pharazon and Feanor both had late game winners in wins over their opponents. Ecthelion scored the only goal in a crucial result against Imladris. We decided to give the last One Star FW spot to Earendil (Smaug was automatic with its 1+1) because despite Armenelos' staunch guarding and gameplan to try to stop Earendil, they still couldn't and The Havens had Armenelos on the ropes for a significant portion of the game.

TWO STAR

Goalies
Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)

Turgon's 5/5 was the top goalie performance of the round. Tar Atanamir's 5/6 we valued as next best (even over the other goalies who got shut outs) because he did it against a quality offense and the saves were crucial in limiting Earendil to just 1 goal.

Defenders
Fram (Anduin)
NilpWolf (TIG)

Mid-fielders

Irmo (Valimar)
Haldir (Anduin)

Both were the key factors in their team's offense. Both teams had 2-0 victories, and both contributed to each of their teams' goals.

Forwards

Scatha (Wilderland)
Glaurung (Nargothrond)

2 goals each from 2 dragons, they had the top performances amongst the forwards in Round 1.

THREE STAR

The single best performance in Round 1 then goes to...

Curufin, FW for FC Valinor.

Most might say this is not surprising, but it was one of the most contentious debates for our panel in Round 1. Whether to say Curufin had the best performance or Nilpwolf. The wolf's shutout of Angband (the result that probably shocked TTN the most) plus contributing with a goal. Where Curufin's evisceration of Isengard should not have shocked anyone. Still Curufun won out, I mean he should have had a hat-trick and scored 2 goals in a matter of mere minutes which had the game over by half-time for FC Valinor. Performances like Curufin's are the best, no matter the opponent.

[Nogrod]

Group A

First games:
Armenelos vs. The Havens 2-1
Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar 0-2

The Havens vs The Barrow-Downs

Group A is a threeway game and by beating The Havens Armenelos has taken a huge step towards qualification. So it is the Havens’ turn to take the must win over the Barrow-Downs for if they fail in it they can kiss their chances of qualifying good-bye. Now it should be self-evident they will do it but for the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil.

The AKM joins the group of football fans who question the existence of a B-D team as long as it is composed mainly of fictional entities whose only merit is their capability of making lousy jokes and behaving badly. And we hope the AFA would come up with a decent solution of giving the slot to a proper Arda-team the next season.

That said the AKM thinks there is nothing to stop the Havens from winning the game unless Bombadill is awake and willing to play (which we actually hope for fairness-sake he isn’t). For unlike with Valimar there are no Valier to stop him if he suddenly decides to play…

The Havens is actually a pretty tough team and the AKM would see them fighting neck to neck with Valimar for the spot in the qualification. Drawing in the friendlies with this year’s wild card team Inter Beleriand 3-3 and losing to the T-I-G only 1-2 makes them a team one should consider seriously as one to qualify.

If nothing unexpected happens the last round game between The Havens and Valimar will be a real thriller! But before that can take place Havens needs to beat the Barrow-Downs, which the AKM predicts they will.

The AKM predicts: The Havens wins 3-1


Armenelos vs Valimar

Armenelos vs. Valimar will be the hair-rising game of this round. Just think of the historical burden it carries with it and behold! And it will be a very hard one to predict as well.

Now both teams belong to the founding teams of the Arda Cup – and to the first teams to play football in the first place – and still belong to the top ten of the tournament, in the general meaning of the term. Neither though impressed the experts with their friendlies, but yet they both took pretty confident victories from the first round of the group-phase.

To spell that out let’s see their games this year. Armenelos draw 3-3 with the top-quality offence-machine Nargothrond and lost to the serious contenders for the whole Cup AC Beleriand 1-2. Then on the first round of group-play they beat the decently tough team of the Havens 2-1.

Meanwhile Valimar lost to Ulmo’s serious contender-team The Sea 0-1 and got beaten by the flashing Real Valinor 1-3 only to show they still were no pushovers by beating the the Barrow-Downs confidently 2-0.

So looking at the earlier results you might think Armenelos being the slight favourites – and that is the decent deduction. But with team Valimar and Manwê, Namö and Irmö playing nothing is that clear-cut or simple.

Probably one of the toughest games to predict on this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 or Armenelos wins 2-1 (in the situation Arien gets wild Valimar has chances of winning the game, not otherwise)


Group B

First games:
Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United 2-1
AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin 2-1

AC Beleriand vs Inter Beleriand

The two Beleriand-teams make it out and while the AC is the obvious big brother when it comes to the success in the footballing-fields Inter seems to have built a very competitive team for this year to challenge their kin and friends.

Now that doesn’t mean AC Beleriand wouldn’t be the favourites to win the game and like last year, leave Inter to fight for the qualification with Gondolin (a fight they lost last season). But Inter did win Doriath and played even with The Havens in the friendlies and then managed the hurdle called the Dwarves United at the first round whose defence many teams fear by scoring two goals.

But looking at the AC Beleriand’s track record & the list of their players brings anyone wishing to see an even game back to the stands: AC Beleriand beat both Armenelos and Anfaughlith 2-1 in the friendlies – like they did with Gondolin on the first round of the group phase.

Long story short: everyone expects AC Beleriand to qualify, with decent reasons, and so the other three teams would only fight it out between themselves for the second position. Inter has beaten Dwarves United and have reason to be content – but as it is possible they need to go on counting goals made and allowed (if they end up in a draw with Gondolin and Dwarves United doesn’t make surprises) so they will be playing defensive trying to contain AC Beleriand -to AC Beleriand a win will do.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins again 2-1 (or 1-0)


Dwarves United vs Gondolin

Gondolin just needs to win this game against Dwarves United. There is no other way to qualify. Now you might ask why we don’t say Dwarves United needs to win this game? Well they lost already to Inter Beleriand and their chances are pretty low indeed while Gondolin “only” lost to AC Beleriand which is most probably going to qualify anyway.

But that doesn’t mean Dwarves Utd. would be giving up because of that. On the contrary. The AKM thinks Dwarves United will be the pain in the – well you know where – for every other team of this group with it’s tough defences and only teams that can really attack can actually walk over them. AC Beleriand seems to have what it takes to do that – and Inter did that already – so now all the pressure is on Gondolin to show they have it as well… And that is the trick of the game.

So the question becomes, whether Gondolin is able to break those defences for good or not. The good news are that they were able to beat tough-defending Arnor last year 4-0 – the bad news are that the architect and hero of that game for Gondolin Gothmog is no longer playing for them.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Gondolin wins 1-0)


Group C

First games:
Hithlum vs. Real Valinor 1-3
Doriath vs. Shire-Bree United 1-1


Hithlum vs Shire-Bree United

Hithlum faces a “must-win” and Gandalf would be just too happy to deny it from them as the leading player of the underdogs and the team everyone thought would have no chance standing up against the greater teams of the group. Now their draw with the hosts Doriath has changed the mood somewhat and instead of a walk in the park everyone looks forwards to a fighting team Shire-Bree making it hard for Hithlum.

That said, it is clear Hithlum has the quality and stamina Shire-Bree lacks, even if they have proved themselves able to put up a fight. Gandalf, the three Nazgûls and Shadowfax are quality players and able to challenge the human heroes of team Hithlum (even if the Nazgûl were before the rings far lesser breed of kings than the Hithlum-heroes are). But the rest of the team just isn’t able to carry the day for them. Now there have been somewhat justified concerns about the narrowness of Hithlum’s talent as well – but that, the AKM thinks – is relevant only when we start comparing their eighth or ninth toughest player to those of the Real or FC Valimar or AC Beleriand… and not to these Fernys and Butterburs.

Just remembering their games this year might help put things into perspective. In the friendlies Hithlum draw with both Angband (tough team) and Gondolin (pretty tough team) and then lost round 1 game to Real Valinor (super-tough team). Shire-Bree has won the Barrow-Downs (crap team) and drawn with Anduin (decent team) and then on the first round with Doriath (decent / decent minus -team).

Also none of the teams Shire-Bree has met thus far this year has had a real killer-offence. But Hithlum has that. How will their defence handle it is a question worth asking.

So even if there is this nice idea the underdogs could shake the order of the world the AKM sees Hithlum being overall at such a different level that they will claim their first win of the year – and with the self-confidence thus boosted, who knows how far they will go?

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1


Doriath vs Real Valinor

There is one clear conclusion to be made from the first round of Group C: Real Valinor is a plain marvellous team and anyone meeting them will have tough times. With Arien gone there seems to be a half-dozen players ready to fill in to score. So if the defence takes one out, another will make the goal. Bad news to any phantasy-players as it is hard to pick the right one from there, but great news for the team.

After the confident victory over Hithlum it is hard to see Real Valinor challenged for real by any other team of this group unless they just relax too much – which doesn’t sound like a plausible idea regarding the personalities playing for the team – and Tulkas as the one calling the shots in the end.

Doriath craves for a win after the disappointing draw with the Shire-Bree and they have the support of the home-crowds, but they just lack quality to pull out one from this game. And it might be added that the draw they played with the Shire-Bree was only partly following from the goodness of the S-B team – and there was also some real lack of flair and excellence in Doriath’s game – and it looks like the home team will not qulify from this group.

Anyway, this is one of the round’s most clear games.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-0 (3-1)


Group D

First games:
Isengard vs. FC Valinor 0-4
Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor 1-1

Barad-Dur vs Isengard

With Barad-Dûr and Gondor drawing their first round match it is then time for Isengard to make their claim for the other qulification-position in this group meeting Barad-Dûr. But unless FC Valinor means to beat the other two teams with such ugly numbers the Isengard-start wasn’t the best one. And lets face it: who would bet on Saruman against Sauron?

One could make a hypothetical case for Isengard by looking at the friendlies and stating that they had a caliber tougher opponents and only lost decentlyish (losing only 1-2 to Wilderland is actually prettu good for a weaker team) whereas Barad-Dûr didn’t convince in their own friendlies (a 0-0 draw with Arnor isn’t the best possible result from a team that aspires to go far in this tournament).

But still. Even if Barad-Dûr isn’t exactly the favourites to go far in the tournament Isengard seems to have little or nothing to throw against their reasonably strong defence.

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dür wins 2-0 (or possibly 2-1)


Gondor vs FC Valinor

The result of the game depends mostly on the attitude of FC Valinor. If they want to play with full strength and give their best there is probably nothing Gondor could mount against them and the game will end something like 6-0.

But that is not probable. FC Valinor got venting some of the steam out making the confident win over Isengard and can now either get some rest from pressures or practise their gameplans – and as Curufin has gotten his confidence back it seems he has nothing to especially show-off this time.

So the only possibility this might turn out an interesting game is if FC Valinor has a total attitude problem and think they can just walk with half-pace, score a few goals and the go home looking for the qualifiers. If that happens, Gondor’s organized team-play might frustrate them and then who knows with a lucky breakthrough by Anarion or Eldacar?

Then again, looking at the roster of FC Valinor it’s hard to see them as a team who would come to the pitch half-heartedly. But it is hard to see them playing with full-effort the whole 90 minutes either. THE script they probably wish to execute is making a few goals and then sitting back making sure the game is won.

Like the other game in this group, this looks like pretty much settled already as to who wins it, but with what kind of a score?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor’s game-plan holds and they win 3-1 (2-0)


Group E

First games:
Eriador vs. Misty Mountains 2-1
Erebor vs. Wilderland 3-3

MistyMts vs Wilderland

After their pretty mediocre show at the friendlies Misty Mountains made a fresh performance in their game against Eriador and thus made themselves a bit more serious contender for the qualification. But fighting for the second qualification spot against both Erebor and Wilderland looks like a bit too tough a project for them.

Misty Mountains looks actually like a b-class version of the two other teams of the group. They all like to play rough and aggressive and outscore their opponents but whereas both Erebor and Wilderland have quality to actually pull that off Misty Monutains just falls short of it.

Wilderland needs the three points from here and it needs them bad. But the problem is that Misty Mountains defences would look like suited into denying them. Just think of the following: Gwaihir taking off the Nazgûl, Caradhras blocking the slow and unwinged Scatha, Watcher keeping it’s eye on Thranduil and William just blocking the first elves with its size.

But how many of you would betting on that scenario to work in the end – especially as Imin already showed he can score in the first game?

On the other end the ents should be able to hold Azog and Narvi at bay but Durin’s Bane will be a real problem – and it will mean the Misty Mountains will score. But Thranduil and the elves will still outscore Misty Mountains.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 3-1 (3-2)


Erebor vs Eriador

Looking at the last year and the teams in paper this year it would seem Eriador is one of the top contenders to reach the final stages of the tournament once again this year. But somehow the AKM has been – and is – sceptical about their success unless they really show how they play first. If they clear this group with clean stats then yes, the AKM will give them a thumbs up, but before that we will be quite reserved indeed.

And the reason is simple: they haven’t impressed us yet.

Yes, it is not their style to beat the opposing team 6-0 if 1-0 is enough. And yes they can score when they wish to (like they beat the B-D 3-0 in the friendlies – or Gondolin 3-1 last year). But this year they have only won Anduin (decent team) 1-0 and the B-D (crap) 3-0 – and they didn’t impress with their win 2-1 over Misty Mountains on the first round even if you could say the Misty Mts. is a better team some people might think.

If one wishes to think about Eriador’s chances in this tournament they’d need to produce results against teams like Real or FC Valinor, or AC Beleriend, or the T-I-G, or… and there is nothing to show they are able to do that. And the AKM remains sceptical unless they play one tough game and show what they are made of this year.

That said Erebor is kind of a tough opponent to Eriador. The last year’s fourth is a considerable team even if most analysts agree it has weakened from the last year – and losing Gwaihir and Thranduil is exactly that, weakening of the team. Also, the last year they beat Wilderland in the group phase but this year they draw the game. ‘nuff said.

But still, their offence will finally give a preliminary test to Eriador’s overpaid defences (the AKM still thinks the signing of Aragorn and Arwen with 10 million each was a a bad move sportswise even if it felt nice to Elrond).

A lot will depend on how Smaug will fare against the Eriador defences – and in the last instance against Elrond. Nazgûl #7 will have no frightening effect whatsoever against Eriador’s defences and both Bolg and Bard will have hard times trying to outwit Gil-Galad, Aragorn, Arwen and Asfaloth.

But the real question is how confidently Glorfindel and Isildur can play against the eagles – and Beorn at the goal – and do Arveleg and NogWight have what it takes to support them when needed…

The AKM predicts after a lot of to and fro: Eriador wins 2-1 (3-2)


Group F

First games:
Minas Tirith vs. Nargothrond 0-3
The Sea vs. Tirion 1-1


Minas Tirith vs Tirion

Minas Tirith was facing an uphill battle in this group to begin with and then losing to Nargothrond 0-3 didn’t exactly make their situation any easier. To put it bluntly they basically have to beat both The Sea and Tirion to qualify now. And after they lose to Tirion on this coming round it is then clear they will not be qualifying.

Tirion in turn seems to have the bad karma to be always put in a group that has some relatively tough competition. But after their ill luck of being in the same group with both Real and FC Valinor and Armenelos last year they can consider this group a piece of cake – and they would truly deserve to qualify this year. And they have it in their own hands. Now they just have to pick that cake-piece.

But that may also require beating Minas Tirith with as big numbers Nargothrond did it just to be on the safe side – so Tirion will not go for this game intending only to win. They intend to win big.

Will they do that?

Drawing with The Sea gave them the keys. Now they may have some problems with really strong defences like Angband (they drew 1-1 in the friendlies) but Minas Tirith has nothing of the sort Angband has to offer. Then again, if they could score two goals behind Gondolin, scoring at least that much should be no problem against Minas Tirith.

The AKM predicts: Tirion wins 2-0 (3-0)


Nargothrond vs The Sea

Now the Sea might just have a problem. Keeping the scores low and accepting draws might just mean they are going to stay in the group phase with the offensive powerhouse Nargothrond and a very effective Tirion team there to beat the fourth team of the group with bigger numbers the Sea will…

So with a draw with Tirion already under their belt it probably has dawned to Ulmo they can’t afford to draw with Nargothrond any more – or then they need to put up some real fireworks against Minas Tirith.

But Nargothrond will have none of that. They count on their offensive power and will give The Sea a run for their money. And so it will be a real thriller indeed! One of the best defences against one of the toughest offences fight it out – and the proze for the winner is nothing less but a pretty good chances of qualifying (for Nargothrond it would actually be a safe qualification if they win).

For the stat-freaks there is an intereting piece of information: while Nargothrond has made eight goals in their three games this year (two friendlies and one group-game) The Sea has meanwhile only given up one. The opposite numbers are interesting as well: Nargothrond has allowed four goals while The Sea has scored two.

One of the hardest to predict this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Nargothrond wins 1-0)


Group G

First games:
Anfaughlith vs. Imladris 1-0
Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 0-2

Imladris vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Tol-In-Gaurhoth made quite a spectacular show of their skills and stamina in their first game against Angband – with the restrictions on how many werewolves there can be eased and with a couple of sharp sign-ins they have reached back to the level they used to play years ago. And that spells trouble for Imladris.

If the T-I-G doesn’t win the game with at least two-goal difference the AKM thinks they’re showing a soft spot somewhere – or then they will just be guilty of playing it lazy.

Now that is a possibility – that the werewolves just walk around and hit one ball in – or if Imladris should score by chance before them – they get enraged and miss their chance for the clear sheet. But that is only a possibility – and too probable one.

On the other hand, with a win the werewolf-pack has a chance to nail their qualification in this game and they’d probably wish to do that and – knowing that the number two of this group will most probably meet AC Beleriand in the first qualification round – they are not that crazy to try their luck if they can avoid such an opponent in their first qualification-game.

So the T-I-G has the team, the skills, the toughness and the reason to beat Imladris – and that is exactly what they are going to do.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 3-0


Angband vs Anfauglith

Now the game between Angband and Anfaughlith is a tougher one. Melkor and Ungoliant have a mutual history – and they have fought it out before. If Melkor’s Angband would stand against Sauron’s Barad Dûr few would wish to bet on the latter, but Ungoliant’s Anfaughlith is just a few levels tougher a team. And Ungoliant has never been Melkor’s minion…

Looking at the friendlies you could say both had tough opponents. Anband managed to draw with both Hithlum (maybe not so toug a team afterall?) and Tirion (a good team but needs to fight for qualification), whereas Anfaughlith lost narrowly 1-2 against both AC Beleriand (one of the toughest this year) and Nargothrond (with their killer-offence).

One might say Anfaughlith’s first round win over Imladris only 1-0 was a disappointment and might tell of a lack of quality in the team – and that would not be totally unfair a judgement as Anfaughlith hasn’t been a top scoring team at any point. But then again Angband’s humiliating loss to the T-I-G werewolves 0-2 is if possible even a darker shadow hanging over Morgoth’s team.

And looking at the group it will be this game that decides the second qualifier. So neither will back off or give ground to the other even an inch.

It is a game of survival.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or then Angband wins 2-1 with Melkor having a major role in at least one of the goals)


Group H

First games:
Mordor vs. Rohan 2-0
Anduin vs. Arnor 2-0


Arnor vs Mordor

Many media outlets were saying that Arnor would be topping the table while the AKM said Anduin would rule over them – and well that’s what happened. Now Arnor needs to win if they wish to have any hopes of qualification alive – but they might be facing a tougher opponent anyone expected; or then the Rohanians are just an easily scared bunch of lesser men of late ages (well, which they are, actually).

But then comes the common sense and settles the matter: if Gondor was able to beat Mordor 3-1 then why couldn’t Arnor do the same – and there is a nice comparison to them, do they wish to be outperformed by their southern brothers and cousins?

Just looking at the overall price-tag of their team it must be admitted that Shelob, Mouth and the two Nazgûls have fared a lot better anyone expected thus far – but giving them the easily scared Rohanians as their first opponent may have boostec their image a bit over it’s real value.

The AKM still thinks Arnor will qualify, led by the Witch King – only to be devoured by whoever comes to meet them from group A – but nevertheless.

The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-0 (2-1)


Anduin vs Rohan

Now Rohan may prove to be a tougher opponent to Anduin than Arnor was – but nothing they couldn’t handle. Then again, if Rohan wishes to keep any hopes alive for qualification they must win the game – and if they fall in trying too much Anduin will surely punish them for that.

So it will not be a walk in the park for Anduin but they will emerge the victors in the end whether they just prove themselves the better team or punish the Rohanians for too far-reaching attack. For Anduin defences are far better than those of Rohan or Arnor – and if one of the teams from this group could challenge a team from group A it would be Anduin (well, we’d doubt their chances against Armenelos but against Valimar or The Havens they might put up a fight).

Rohan will play serious and will get some balm to their wounds as now everyone laughs at them, but it will most probably not be enough.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0

[Boromir88]

GROUP A

1. The Havens vs. Barrow-Downs -
The Havens will be a better match up for The Barrow-Downs team than Valimar was, but will it be enough? Now The Havens have conceded 2 goals in every one of their matches so defensively they're vulnerable and The Barrow-Downs is good enough to exploit it. But The Havens has also scored in each one of their games and against much tougher defenses than the BDs. Question, good enough to score 3? We'll take the odds and call it a draw 2-2.

2. Armenelos vs. Valimar-
The premier game of Round 2. In previous years Armenelos' strong attack has taken it right to Manwe's conservative style and completely embarrassed the Valar on their home field. Ar Pharazon would want nothing more than to do the same by spoiling the Valar's return to home after the 1-year hosting ban. Neither team will want to end this game with a draw, they both desire to beat the other too badly. The difficulty time we're having is choosing which one! *Valimar wins 2-1

GROUP B

1. AC Beleriand vs. Inter Beleriand-
Inter did good to get the needed result against Dwarve's United but now a different challenge facing their more trimmed and experienced land-mass rivals, AC Beleriand. We'll go with the experience and what this year has so far shown us *ACBel wins 2-1

2. Dwarve' s United vs. Gondolin-
Gondolin's defense is a little shakier than Inter's and the Dwarves will be determined to play better after a rough 2-0 defeat. Gondolin's attack however, is comparable to Inter's and Galadriel simply must save more than 3/5 to be worth the price she commands. *Gondolin wins 2-1

GROUP C

1. Hithlum vs. Shire-Bree United-
Shire-Bree's defense has the legs to run with Hithlum all game, and that's probably what they'll be doing. Gandalf and Khamul can spring a couple surprise counters that might be able to go in goal, but they can't get into a scoring contest or they'll lose. *Hithlum wins 3-1.

2. Doriath vs. Real Valinor-
We weren't surprised Real Valinor beat Hithlum on Round 1, but we surprised by how easily they dealt with Hithlum's offensive firepower. Containing Doriath then shouldn't be a problem for them and even without Arien their offensive talent is still good enough to beat Melian's girdle at least twice. *Real Valinor wins 2-0.

GROUP D

1. Barad-Dur vs. Isengard-
Isengard should play better in this one, but merely because it's hard to play any worse than their 0-4 shelacking in round 1. The blue wizards will be tasked with stopping their fellow wizard Saruman. Saruman has led those two off into the wilderness before, but other Isengard attackers shouldn't be too much of a hastle. Barad-Dur's offense hasn't been as impressive as expected, but surely it's shown more quality than Isengard's defense. *Barad-Dur wins 2-1.

2. Gondor vs. FC Valinor-
Defensively Gondor will be much stiffer than FC Valinor, but they don't have the skill nor talen to hold out indefinitely. Nor do they possess the killer strike needed to beat FC Valinor's defense, even if FC Valinor takes Gondor fairly easily. *FC Valinor wins 2-0.

GROUP E

1.Misty Mountains vs. Wilderland-
The Misty Mountains played a tough game against Eriador and Wilderland's attacking ability certainly surprised us being able to score 3 on Erebor. Although, in our group breakdowns we thought Erebor was overpriced (and overrated) this year, while Misty Mountains is getting good value comparable to the talent they've put on the field. Wilderland will be able to score, but the question is are they capable of stopping anyone? With Eriador waiting in the final game this is more a must win for Wilderland than it is for Misty Mountains. But to prove the doubters wrong (and TTN correct) Misty Mountains needs the win as well. *Misty Mts wins 3-2.

2. Erebor vs. Eriador-
A disappointing draw against Wilderland puts Erebor in a precarious situation. Now Erebor's attack is a nightmare to contain to a defense like Eriador, who plays mistake-free but seriously lack the aerial player to stop Smaug. However, it's also why they have Elrond at goal, because the Elf lord just stops everything game after game. This could end in a draw simply because Erebor should come away with most the possession and more shots on goal, but still can't find a way to get 2 past Elrond. Tough to call and go against Eriador, but we do agree with AKM here, they've lost some of their glitter (definitely hurt by Witch-King's departure). *Draw 1-1.

GROUP F

1. Minas Tirith vs. Tirion-
We were disappointed by Minas Tirith's round 1 performance. Make no mistake once put in this group their fate to take the cellar in the group seemed certain, but we thought there was still enough talent to challenge the teams in this group and make a real fight of things. Now we're left wondering if they'll even be able to score a goal in this group. *Tirion wins 3-1.

2. Nargothrond vs. The Sea-
Nargothrond definitely impressed us, even if it was against a must weaker Minas Tirith squad this year...this was a team that was really hemhorraging goals last year and appeared to have lost it's way. Last year must have been rock bottom and they have apparently placed everyone in their proper positions. Having said that, The Sea just exemplifies experience and defensive excellence. We foresee a breakout performance by Tar Minastir in this one, that leads to...*The Sea wins 2-1.

GROUP G

1. Imladris vs. Tol-in-Gaurhoth-
TIG has put it all together this year and that spells trouble for Imladris. Imladris is stout defensively and there is no way they're going to be intimidated with Varda leading the defense (that much is proven after round 1). Their offense though is seriously lacking, especially against the fearsome defenses in this group. *TIG wins 2-0.

2. Angband vs. Angfauglith-
Another premier game in round 2 and we're just sitting here anxiously wondering how this one turns out. It's hard to see that Morgoth won't come into this game full of fury and might that will put the Balrogs and Angfauglith in their proper place (2nd fiddle to Angband). But it's time to be blunt about Angband here...they don't look right and haven't looked right since losing on penalty kicks to Minas Tirith last year. Even in the friendlies, just to manage their draws Morgoth needed to come forward to get late goals. Now Angfauglith has a lot of problems in the midfield that won't be as troublesome to Angband as TIG's midfield was...We'll go with *Angband wins 1-0.

GROUP H

1. Arnor vs. Mordor-
Mordor did what they needed in a convincing 2-0 win over Rohan, proving what TTN said that there is more talent to the roster than what the payroll shows. However, we do agree with AKM here too that Mordor's roster, while perfect against Rohan, is not so good against the veteran rangers led by their king, Elendil. And on the attack, the Witch-King is clearly superior to The Mouth and Nazgul. Arnor is in more need of the win, even if Mordor has Anduin waiting in the last round, because a draw will probably give Mordor enough points to advance. This is one of the more difficult matches to call. We'll take the draw 2-2.

2. Anduin vs. Rohan-
Anduin lived up to their pricetag in round 1, and that was the questionmark with this team. While beating an opponent like Arnor isn't a sparkling achievement, it did show they were at least as good on the field as they were on paper. Rohan will be looking to bounceback after being frightened off the field by Mordor, and well at least the Anduin team shouldn't scare the wits out of Rohan. But Rohan's lost way too much talent from last year's strong playoff team, and the great Grimbeorn is quite scary too. *Anduin wins 2-1.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

AC Beleriand vs Inter Beleriand


[Projected formation. AC Beleriand in red and white; Inter Beleriand in blue and yellow.]

Formation:

A formation battle tends to be of greater importance if both sides wish to play proactive football—the spare man in the midfield is especially important when pressing to recover the ball, as well as when trying to get out of opposition pressing. Inter Beleriand’s preferred strategy is to sit back and attack on the break, so the midfield battle is less important than how effective both sides would carry out their strategies.

Tactics:

The more important tactical questions, then, are:

a) How would AC Beleriand break down Inter’s defence?

Inter have solid full-backs but defensively suspect centre-backs—Dwarves United forward Legolas managed to gain a few chances against them despite his lack of support. AC Bel would occupy Baragund and Lúthien with Angrod and Aegnor, leaving Eöl and Fëanor to play through Gorlim and Haldad. Ulrad’s forward runs and Denethor’s long passes from the midfield would help force Inter’s midfield to close them down, giving Fëanor additional space in the hole. Another attacking option AC Bel have is their full-backs, but they must be careful about the timing of their forward runs (Inter’s wing play on the counterattack is excellent). And advancing both of them at the same time looks out of the question—with Maedhros and Fingon occupying both centre-backs, AC Bel would have no spare man at the back.

b) How effective would Inter’s transition from defence to attack be?

Inter can sit back all they want, but their best way of getting a goal is to exploit AC Bel’s high defensive line with quick passes from the defence. Maedhros can exploit Rochallor in the air, and Fingon can attack Imlach with his pace. If Fingolfin and Balrog #4 are caught too high up the pitch when Inter gain possession, then Haleth and Beren would have space to run forward and outnumber AC Bel’s defence.

Prediction:

Inter are too good on the counter to be shut out. Imlach and Rochallor looked defensively solid last year because of their effective partnership, but they don’t have the individual talent to deny Maedhros and Fingon one-on-one. With that said, AC Bel would control the game—Denethor, especially, now looks comfortable in his deep-lying role, spraying forward passes to their wing players. Also, Eöl and Fëanor will run circles around Gorlim and Haldad, defenders who struggled against Legolas. Anything other than an AC Beleriand win seems unlikely.

AC Beleriand 2-1 Inter Beleriand
__________________

Dwarves United vs Gondolin


[Projected formation. Dwarves United in black and white; Gondolin in blue and white.]

Formation and Tactics:

Gondolin’s 4-4-1-1 would have a slight disadvantage in midfield against Dwarves United 4-5-1. Maeglin would have to drop a few metres deeper to help maintain possession. In Dwarf U’s last match, Inter flooded the midfield with Fingon dropping deep and Beren moving infield from the wing, giving them a comfortable 4 to 3 advantage in the centre of the pitch. Gondolin, however, couldn’t replicate this tactic—Idril, their more central-minded wide midfielder, is needed to defend against Dwarf U’s strong left wing (with Telchar and Celebrimbor on that side), whereas Elemmakil is a natural wide player and plays poorly when fielded in the centre.

Inter controlled the game vs Dwarf U because they used their spare player intelligently. Left-back Lúthien, with no one to mark, moved higher up the pitch and essentially replaced Beren as wide-left midfielder, giving them an additional attacking player to help break Aulë’s defence down. Gondolin, on the other hand, might regret their lack of attacking full-backs. Look at part of the pitch closest to Rog—Gondolin have four players in an area where Dwarf U only has one. While Egalmoth would be needed to help Idril defend Dwarf U’s strong side, Galdor is clearly a surplus. Would he then push forward when Gondolin is in possession? And if so, what could he contribute to Gondolin’s offence?

Prediction:

Gondolin look like they’ll have a harder time than Inter breaking Dwarf U’s defences down. They don’t have an attacking full-back to break them down the flanks, nor the midfield advantage to play them through the middle. With that said, their front five have enough individual talent to take Dwarf U on—if they commit a lot to their offence, a strategy that would then give space for Dwarf U to play their counterattacking game. With the home crowd spurring Gondolin on, this looks set to be a game of two halves—a passive first half and a crazy second half.

Dwarves United 1-1 Gondolin

[Boromir88]

TTN's Stars (Round 2)
-Boro88

ONE STAR

Goalies
Denethor II (Minas Tirith)
Elrond (Eriador)
Carcharoth (Angband)
Finarfin (Tirion)
Grishnakh (Barad-Dur)

After agreeing Elrond, Carcharoth, and Finarfin's shutout efforts should be rewarded with at least one star, and Grishnakh saving 4/5 in a close 2-1 victory for Barad-dur, the last goalie slot was a battle between Tar Atanamir, Beorn, and Denethor II. Tar Atanamir and Beorn, both like Grishnakh saved 4/5...Beorn's side however had fallen in a 0-1 defeat to Eriador. It's not a shame to lose a close game to Eriador, but this was a big game for Erebor and they came up short. Tar-Atanamir's efforts were good enough for a solid draw against the strong Valimar side, but based on both teams winning in round 1, and the Havens-BDowns game ending a draw the hype for the game was larger than the true impact the results had on the group.

But why give the last spot to Denethor II, Minas Tirith was eliminated by an 0-2 defeat to Tirion? I'm sure many will say it is TTN showing home team favoritism, but Denethor is the only one who has apparently decided to show up for Minas Tirith. In two games he's saved 12/17 as his defense is leaking big time, his offense is doing nothing, Denethor is the only one who kept Minas Tirith from another humiliating loss against Tirion.

Defenders
NilpWolf (TIG)
Eonwe (FC Valinor)
Gil-Galad (Eriador)
Morgoth (Angband)
Uinen (The Sea)

This week we thought the defensive leaders, who had commanded their teams to shutout wins had a stronger case than the defenders who gave up at least one goal but aided the offense with an assist (Celebrimbor, Rochallor, Radagast). NilpWof, Eonwe, Gil Galad, and Morgoth all had a dominating presense that just shutdown the opposing offenses. The Sea surrendered two goals, but Uinen's goal was instrumental in The Sea's tie with Nargothrond, and to keep The Sea's playoff chances beating.

Mid-fielders
Nazgul #1 (Mordor)
Nienor (Nargothrond)
Beleg (Hithlum)
Hador (Hithlum)
Earwen (The Havens)

This was one of the tougher positions to deal out stars, since there were really only two great performances from midfielders (Aegnor and Argon) this round, the rest were just ok. Hithlum's mid-field dominated the game against Shire-Bree and also showed up on the scoreboard, so Beleg and Hador were both givens one star each. Nazgul #1 had kept Mordor ahead for most of their game, and only a late surge the Witch-King saved Arnor's playoff chances. Earwen and Nienor both scored in their matches that ended in 2-2 draws and kept their team's playoff hopes alive.

Forwards
Turin (Hithlum)
Eol (AC Beleriand)
Ancalagon (Angband)
Eorl (Anduin)
Witch-King (Arnor)

The forwards were pretty straightforward this week, several FWs contributed with 1 goal and 1 assist in their games. The final slot came down to arguments made for the Witch-King, Araphor, and Arien. Araphor and Arien both had late game heroics. Araphor's goal was a game-winner, Arien's just a game-tier. Also, Arnor winning Mordor was more crucial, picking up 3 points and their playoff chances alive, over Valimar. Even if Valimar lost 0-1, they could still make the playoffs by simply beating Havens in Round 3.

We went with the Witch-King over Araphor though, because it was evident the Witch-King inspired the late offensive surge and deflated the Mordor team which looked strong and commanding the previous 70 minutes.

TWO STAR

Goalies
Arvedui (Arnor)
Galadriel (Dwarves Utd)

If The Witch-King led Arnor's offense to a late victory, it was Arvedui who kept the game close enough making the late heroics possible. His 5/6 saves kept victory within reach. Galadriel also saved 5/6 and we judged this was a better performance over any of the goalies who commanded shutouts. Galadriel was against a deadly Gondolin offense, and Dwarves United shocked the Arda world again when everyone had written the team off.

Defenders
Ingwion (Real Valinor)
Caranthir (Tirion)

The two defenders who did more than contribute to their teams shutouts, by also scoring a goal (Ingwion) or an assist (Caranthir)

Mid-fielders
Aegnor (AC Beleriand)
Argon (FC Valinor)

This was a no-brainer, Aegnor and Argon were clearly the two top mid-field performers this round.

Forwards
Sauron (Barad-Dur)
Durin's Bane (Misty Mts)

The Forwards were a little harder because there were several 1goal + 1 assist FWs this round. Ultimately Sauron contributed to both of Barad-durs goals in a 2-1 victory. While Durin's Bane contributed to both of Misty Mts goals in a 2-2 draw. Both results were important to their respective teams.

THREE STAR

Legolas, FW for Dwarves United.

There was considerable debate for the three-star performer too, would it be Ingwion's shutout and goal against Doriath? Well, that result was even more expected than the case we had for NilpWolf's shutout and goal against Angband in Round 1. What about Aegnor's 2 goals...were they better than Legolas' two goals? Again it wasn't shocking anyone AC Beleriand would beat Inter Beleriand, so that 3-1 victory was anticipated.

What no one anticipated was a team that had serious goal scoring problems, would get 2 goals from their elven forward and beat Gondolin 2-1, in Gondolin's own stadium. This put a dagger in the heart of the Gondolin fans. Their team is still not eliminated, but have a tough climb, as they fall victim to the resilient dwarven side.

Stars after 2 Rounds

THREE STARS
DF NilpWolf (TIG)
FW Curufin (FC Valinor)
FW Legolas (Dwarves Utd)

TWO STARS
GK Turgon (Inter Beleriand)
GK Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)
GK Arvedui (Arnor)
GK Galadriel (Dwarves Utd)
DF Fram (Anduin)
DF Ingwion (Real Valinor)
DF Caranthir (Tirion)
MF Irmo (Valimar)
MF Haldir (Anduin)
MF Aegnor (AC Beleriand)
MF Argon (FC Valinor)
FW Scatha (Wilderland)
FW Glaurung (Nargothrond)
FW Sauron (Barad-Dur)
FW Durin's Bane (Misty Mts)

[Nogrod]

Group A

Valimar		4	3-1
Armenelos		4	3-2
The Havens		1	3-4
Barrow-Downs	1	2-4

Valimar and Armenelos seem to dominate the group and the most likely outcome would be that they will qualify leaving The Havens and The Barrow-Downs to the group-phase. But it is also possible all teams end up with four points each and it will be up to comparing the goal differences. But that would require a sort of a double-surprise as both Armenelos and Valimar can secure their qualification with a draw.

The numbers would also side with Valimar and Armenelos qualifying. Their goal keepers Manwë and Tar-Atanamir are way on another level than Amandil and Alien. Also Valimar is the superbly defending team and Armenelos attacks the best (at the moment the stats say The Havens attacks slightly more and with similar percentages than Armenelos but they haven’t played against the defencive powerhouse of Valimar unlike Armenelos – so that stat will change after the last games).

Armenelos vs. Barrow-Downs
Armenelos should win the Barrow-Downs quite confidently were it not for Bombadil who can change games almost single-handedly - well depending on the opponent. Facing a strong Valar-defence even Bombadil was made look more like a mortal – and Eriador beat then 3-0 in the friendlies (whether Bombadil was playing for real in that game remains in obscurity though).

It is very improbable Armenelos loses the game but a draw is a possibility – even if the AKM actually thinks the wise way to put one’s money is betting on an Armenelos win.

The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1 (or 3-1).

Valimar vs. The Havens
Arien is far from her glorious radiance with the new team but everyone is looking at her to start to deliver and she did score a goal on the last round. Meanwhile Lórien has risen up to answer the fans’ call with Ingwë, the High King of all Elves also finding his pace. So even if Arien still finds herself unsecure with her new team, it seems Valimar can score also without her – even if her awakening would finally make the team really dangerous also offensively.

Whatever, Valimar’s defences are just, well one of the best in the tournament – if not the best. And even if Eärendil would be “just the guy” to score against them – and a great striker in his own right – it just doesn’t seem like enough. and it is just because of Eärendil that the AKM will predict The Havens will score one.

The AKM predicts: Valimar wins 2-1.

An added factor: Now it wouldn’t be Arda Cup if there weren’t these hidden agendas… so whether Manwê’s dislike of Ar-Pharazôn and his likes crowding the Armenelos-team is enough for them to purposefully lose to their friends with the Havens allowing them a chance to qualify instead of Armenelos is a question worth asking oneself. Do they have any influence on Bombadil is another matter – for the Barrow-Downs would also need to win to make that possible… and that sounds unlikely without some divine intervention – which again, as the question begs, isn’t out of the question.


Group B

AC Beleriand	6	5-2	
Inter Beleriand	3	3-3
Dwarves Utd.	3	2-3
Gondolin		0	2-4

AC Beleriand has practically secured their qulification already while the hosts Gondolin is almost certainly out – and thus it would seem to be a fight for the second qualification between Inter Belelriand and Dwarves United – with Inter the heavy favourites to qualify as they play Gondolin when Dwarves need to meet AC Beleriand. And that’s what the AKM will predict - but not without some reservations.

If Dwarves Utd. loses to AC Beleriand (which is more likely than not) and Gondolin wins Inter with one goal all three teams end up with the same points having cross-won each other – but Inter and Gondolin have similar and better goal-differentials than Dwarves Utd. dropping them off. And then we’d be seeing some penalty shoot-outs. If Gondolin wins with two goals or more they will qualify.

Dwarves Utd. has a chance of qualifying if they win. They can also qualify with a draw if Gondolin beats Inter Beleriand. Then again Inter Beleriand willl strongly disagree with both these scenariois – and the AKM believes their will shall actually prevail.

AC Beleriand vs. The Dwarves United
Now AC Beleriand is both the most active attacker and the most dangerous one in this group – actually one of the best in the whole tournament. At the same time Marach has turned out the coolest goalie of the group and AC Beleriand’s defences the hardest to break through. So even if Dwarves Utd’s more offensive playing style of this year has surprised and delighted many, with AC Beleriand they are having just a level too tough an opponent.

Celebrimbor is a mighty player but hardly match for his grandpa and uncles – and Aulë can take in only as much – but maybe Galadriel will prove the secret weapon messing with Fëanor’s head?
Well if that, then others than Fëanor will score the goals needed – and they, especially Aegnor and Eöl, have showed it in the last games they can do it.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 3-1 (or 2-0).

Inter Beleriand vs. Gondolin
One could say team Gondolin is the prodigal son of this group: they attack and shoot as actively as AC Beleriand but have scored only two goals while AC Bel has scored five with the same amount of shots…But the wasted opportunities are not their only problem – Rôg is. That sounds like being rude but it is also true: while all the other keepers of the group have saving-percentages from 73-78%, Rôg’s is a disappointing 63,6%.

Inter Beleriand on the other hand has shown efficient finishing – and why not as Maedhros and Fingon are as dangerous they’ve ever been. It seems after the splendid last season Beren has had some problems fitting into the team (1+2 in four games would be good for most of the players but people naturally anticipate more from him). But if he does find his place there it is going to make Inter Beleriand a lot more dangerous team.

That said, it is going to be a tough match indeed. Gondolin did force Hithulm into a draw in the friendlies and will not give up their chance of qualification in front of the home-crowds – so Inter, lacking the stamina and aggressiveness of AC Beleriand will face a tough evening if they wish to win the game. The problem for Gondolin though is that even a draw might be enough for Inter Beleriand – if AC Bel wins Darves Utd. in the other game.

The AKM predicts: draw 2-2 (or Inter Beleriand wins 2-1).


Group C

Real Valinor		6	5-1	
Hithlum		3	5-4
Doriath		1	1-3
Shire-Bree Utd.	1	2-5

Real Valinor is one of the few teams that have already secured their qualification 100%. They could lose to Shire-Bree 0-6 but would still qualify. Even if both the home-team Doriath and Shire-Bree have their chances of qualifying the AKM thinks Hithlum will take the other qualifying position: after seeing the way they crushed Shire-Bree it is hard to see how Doriath could challenge them for real.

So one game has no relevance to the other team involved – unless one thinks of tactical issues aka. Real rather wishing to go to the “lower” bracket and avoid meeting FC Valinor & AC Beleriand (well there they’d have T-I-G to face – a team most traditional teams would like to leave to others to deal with). Although that result would require both a big loss to Real and Doriath being able to beat Hithlum. It is hard to se Real trying that way.

Which means the winner of the other game decides the other qualifier – and only a few would bet on Doriath on that.

Real Valinor vs. Shire-Bree United
Real Valinor is just on a different class from Shire-Bree. A simple comparison might do well to explicate it: Shire-Bree’s most dangerous player and the soul of their team, Gandalf, is the apprentice of Nienna, just a Real Valinor defender (aka. not a star of their team – just a solid back). Also the intimidating power of the Nazgûls would seem nonexistent when facing the Valar, Maiar and Noldor based line of the opposing team.

And what is worst to Shire-Bree: Real Valinor has one of the most aggressive offences while their own defences are one of the worst in the whole tournament – Halbarad seriously fighting for the position of the worst goalie in the tournament with his 54,5% saving-percentage.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 3-0.

Doriath vs. Hithlum
It looks pretty grim for the homeside. They need to win Hithlum and that is a mighty task against the offencive machine they have against them. Hithlum has kind of underperformed in their friendlies and the first round, but their 4-1 victory over Shire-Bree last round kind of showed what they are cabable of.

The hope the hometeam has relies then on defence. Melian is quite a wizard in it. And maybe with some fast counter-attacks Mablung or Elwë could score from? Huor sure isn’t one of the hottest goalies… But even if Doriath’s defences were capable, the Hithlum offence just looks overwhelming: Túrin, Húrin, Beleg, Hador Lorindol… and even if a Balrog would not be a cause for overt “fear and trembling” for the Doriath offences he would be an obstacle enough to make it hard for Elwë and Mablung to break free from.

Doriath will not be an easy opponent to Hithlum – the game has indeed the ingredients of a classic brewing with all the old friendships, debts and rivalries. But the AKM will still see Hithlum the winners.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Group D

FC Valinor		6	6-0	
Barad Dûr		4 	3-2
Gondor		1	1-3
Isengard		0	1-6

FC Valinor is another team that has already secure qualification – while Isengard is another team that has no chance of qualifying any more. Now how much these facts affect the results of the last round is hard to say: some play seriously just for the virtue or honour of it while others might just not give a darn. Or whether there are some tactical considerations that overrun pride? No-one knows.

The gret interest for this group surely is in the game between Gondor and Isengard: if Gondor manages to win Isengard while FC Valinor holds Barad-Dûr at bay it will mean Gondor qualifies – while Barad-Dûr needs to go at least for the least possible disadvantage with the goal-difference. So will FC Valinor lighten up to score a lot or not?

Gondor will need a lot of goals against Isengard while Barad-Dûr needs to lose FC Valinor as little as possible (or to draw or win of course). And how will FC Valinor and Isengard take their role in this fight for qualification between the two other teams?

FC Valinor vs. Barad-Dûr
It is hard to see FC Valinor having any symphaties towards Sauron. On the contrary it looks more like a game they’d love to win – and with players like Curufin, Celegorm, Huan and Eönwe in the team it looks improbable they would play lazily even if they are already qualified.

Barad-Dûr’s defence has thus far shown some qualities but it will be put in a totally different test with the attack of FC Valinor, and even if the wizards might prove worthy recruits on this game it hardly looks they’re going to keep FC from scoring.

Now whether FC Valinor would purposefully lose to get a place on the lower bracket is a possibility you might imagine players like Curufin or Celegorm to entertain – but as it would demand a loss to Sauron – well forget it. Their honour would not admit it.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-0 (3-1).

Gondor vs. Isengard
This game should end in a win for Gondor – not the least because Isengard has no chances to qualify any more while Gondor has all the reason to play it with full stamina. Does that mean Gondor has all the pressure while Isengard can play pressure-free? Well it does – and that could be a problem for Gondor.

A second problem for Gondor is that even if the ents, Uruk-Hai, a Nazgûl and a wizard were no serious opposition to Sauron and his minions aided by a few wizards, or the Valar & Maiar and Noldorian heroes aided by Thorondor – team Gondor only consists of men and there might be a difference here called intimidation…

So it will be a lot closer game the stats might tell one. That said the AKM still believes Gondor will win the day – or at least draw, which would be the victory for Saruman, being able to aid his master in the end.

The AKM predicts Gondor wins 2-1 (or a draw 1-1).

Group E

Eriador		6	3-1
Wilderland		2	5-5
Erebor		1	3-4
Misty Mts.		1	3-4

Eriador has cleared their qualification already – actually they have secured their place as number 1 of the group which means they will play most probably against Barad-Dûr or Gondor on the first round of the qualifications – a much more reasonable opposition many other teams will have. So are they feeling too good already? Well they shouldn’t even if their defences seem to work. Thus far for they kept reasonably strong attack of Erebor at bay – this round they will be tested Wilderland who can’t afford to lose and will thusly come with full strength against them.

Basically all the other three teams have a chance to qualify which predicts a hot last round at Erebor and Mirkwood. And to make it even more interesting, the one of the three having two points (Wilderland) is playing the thusly unbeaten Eriador at their homeforest (well home for Thranduil and kind of for some others) while the two with only one point meet at the Arkenstone Arena.

What that means is the following: If either Erebor or Misty Mts. wins their mutual game Wilderland is out unless it wins it’s own game against Eriador. In the case Erebor and Misty Mts. draw Wilderland’s hopes reside in the number of goals they have scored – and it has an upper hand there at the moment but sadly is facing a team who has only allowed one goal thus far while it’s rivals are not exactly masters of defence when clashing against each other. So all the three will wish to score – a lot.

Eriador vs. Wilderland
Eriador kept Smaug and a Nazgûl at bay so there is no need to think Scatha and a lesser Nazgûl would break down their defences. Thranduil, playing in front of his homecrowds might be a bit tricksier, especially aided by the first elves, if compared to Bard and Bolg they totally shut out.

That said Eriador blocked the attacking frenzy of Erebor neatly letting them only shoot 3/12 and there is to begin with no reason to believe they wouldn’t be able to contain Wilderland’s attacking fury as well. But there is a but – and that is that Wilderland is desperate for a win and will bring forth all they have.

Adding to that Eriador’s somewhat easy-going attitude to the games aka that they are not trying to win every game 6-0 if less is enough creates kind of an interesting situation were defender-champions team Eriador already belly-full meets attacking prowess of Wilderland crazy for a win…

The AKM predicts (after some serious to and fro): Draw 2-2 (or Eriador wins 2-1).

Erebor vs. Misty Mountains
Unless Wilderland surprises most everyone with a win over Eriador then the winner of this game will qualify – and the hungry homecrowds want and see Erebor to be that team. The problem is that even if there were not too many betting on Misty Mts. to have any say in this group before the tournament, now at the crucial moment they actually seem to have some. It is clear Misty Mts. is one of the most positive surprises this year.

Erebor sure has the backing of the frenzied homeside behind them but otherwise the stats look perplexingly even.

After both teams have met Wilderland and Eriador they have the same draw (with Wilderland) and a loss (to Eriador with one goal) and thus the same goal-difference, and actually also the same numbers of goals scored vs. allowed (3-4), and both have allowed about as many shots (Erebor 12/30 vs. Misty Mts. 13/30).

The difference between the two lies in the fact that Erebor shoots overall about 30% - and on target 25% - more than Misty Mts. But on the other side of the coin Misty Mts. has been 25% more accurate on their scoring and Chief Wolf’s saving percentage of 69,2% actually beats that of Beorn’s 66,7% - even if the difference there isn’t that remarkable (Beorn has let 4/12 shots in while Chief Wolf has let in 4/13 – so a one shot difference).

Statistically it does smell of a draw – but the AKM feels there is a slight edge favouring the home-team.

The AKM predicts: Erebor wins 3-2 (or draw 2-2).


Group F

Nargothrond		4	5-2
Tirion		4	3-1
The Sea		2	3-3
Minas Tirith		0	0-5

No one has secured qualification from this group but Minas Tirith has lost their hopes for it and are out. So it is a threeway game here – and it might end up hair-risingly close.

Whatever happens in the other game, the winners of the game between Nargothrond and Tirion will qualify – and Nargothrond will qualify also with a draw. But those are the only safe results and everything else is up in the air.

To put it into a nutshell. So Nargothrond qualifies with a win and with a draw. If they lose to Tirion they can still advance if The Sea doesn’t win Minas Tirith – but that surely is hypothetical. Tirion in turn qualifies with a win, but with a draw it goes down to goal-differentials, assuming The Sea beats MT naturally. In case of a draw between Nargothrond and Tirion the following takes place: if the Sea wins MT with one goal Tirion qualifies, if the difference between The Sea and MT is more than two goals The Sea qualifies. But if the difference is exactly two goals, well then it goes more subtle as the goal difference would be the same – and then the number of goals made overall would decide – and as the starting point is the same (three goals made by both teams) it means whichever team scores more on the last round qualifies.

The Sea has the most uncertain future of all the three contenders as even (the most probable) win will not secure their qualification – but a draw or loss would mean certain disqualification. Now if either teams of the other game loses the game (aka. it is not a draw) The Sea qualifies just winning Minas Tirith. But if the other game ends up in a draw they need to win preferably with three goals.

So both Tirion and The Sea wish to score a lot and Nargothrond’s philosophy has always been outscoring the opponents – so what a round of games to see! The AKM promises a lot of goals! And it is such a shame one of the three teams will have to drop from the tournament while there is fex. group H where every team would be just plain overrun by any of the three. But well, that’s tournament games…

The Sea vs. Minas Tirith
The Sea would seem to face the easiest team to score against with this last round’s scoring-competition. Tirion won Minas Tirith 2-0 and that is the minimum they will have to reach – so the question becomes can the Númenorian strikers deliver when needed, or will Ulmo himself – or Uinen who scored in the previous game – rise up to the occasion to add in the attack?

The AKM doesn’t see a reason to bet for Minas Tirith. They are not only out-classed in quality by The Sea but there is also the question of incentive. Now someone might object to the latter by saying that honour can be even stronger motivator to great deeds, even if there is no hope of reaching your goal. And The AKM will accept the statement. But will add that Ulmo’s The Sea has as much of their honour at stake here (for losing to Minas Tirith would be so embarrasing) but they have the added motivator in their real chance of qualifying.

Were the opposing team any other than Minas Tirith (who hasn’t yet scored a single goal) we might entertain a possibility of them scoring one goal when The Sea is too busy attacking and possibly their defence vulnerable by that. But Minas Tirith will not be able to use that opportunity.

The AKM predicts: The Sea wins 2-0 (or 3-0).

Tirion vs. Nargothrond
A draw would be enough for Nargothrond and sure Finrod, Orodreth and Finduilas should have some feelings towards their father/grandfathers/grandgrandfathers and just plain not wish to win them if it would mean the relegation of their own elders while another team would qualify.

Now sure that will not be Nargothrond’s general policy and the team goes for a win like any honourable team – but it might prove a small factor in the subconsciousness of those of the line of Finwë.

That said, the teams look pretty close: Nargothrond looks somewhat better of the two on offence and Tirion in defence – and both are pretty much top-class teams in both. And the game smells of a draw.

The AKM predicts: draw 2-2.


Group G

Tol-In-Gaurhoth	6	4-0
Angband		3	2-2
Anfaughlith		3	1-2
Imladris		0	0-3

Imladris has theoretical chances of qualifying and in the same vein it is theoretically possible that the T-I-G team will not reach the semifinals. The AKM does not hold either of the scenarios in the least bit believable and sticks to “the game” being played between Angband and Anfaughlith for the second position behind the T-I-G team.

Looking the last game-pairs from that perspective reveals the fact that Angband is very well set to qualify while Anfaughlith’s chances are thin indeed: both Angband losing (or not winning) Imladris and Anfaughlith beating T-I-G would both be major surprises indeed. So T-I-G and Angband will qualify.

Angband vs. Imladris
Imladris’ fate was sealed already with the group-selection but the team has still been a bit of a teethless disappointment. They did score two against Misty Mts. and one against Arnor in the friendlies while drawing with both teams – but with the group games they have not scored a ingle goal and their goal-difference is 0-3. Varda is quality in defence and the young Elladan and Elrohir should be decent forwards but nothing seems to happen: the opponents score the goals needed and they themselves are left scoreless.

That trend looks like continuing against team angband who are keen on qualifying and will not wish to leave anything for second-quessing. The only problem the AKM sees for Angband is that unlike the wolves of T-I-G or the Balrogs of Anfaughlith, Varda might be an exceptionally terrifying defender to their attackers. Not that it would mean Imladris had a chance to win the game, but it might mean Angband is not going to win with ugly numbers.

The AKM predicts: Angband wins 1-0 (or 2-0 the most).

Anfaughlith vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Anfaughlith seems to be falling short of the goal once again even if their team is not that bad – it is actually pretty strong one but is just in too tough a company.

The only chance the AKM sees for them to draw or win this game is if T-I-G goes into one of their extravaganzes and decides to take the day off after securing the qualification or something along the lines. But if the T-I-G plays it in some serious fashion there’s no hope for Anfaughlith: their scoring sucks and their famous defence doesn’t seem to hold that well against Angband – so why would it suddenly against T-I-G who beat Angband 2-0?

Believing the T-I-G will play the game for real…

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-0.


Group H

Anduin		6	4-1
Mordor		3	3-2
Arnor		3	2-3
Rohan		0	1-4

So Anduin has already qualified while Rohan’s chances are not far from being purely theoretical (they’d need to win Arnor with pretty definitive numbers). The surprise team Mordor with it’s 51 million budget stands now their backs against the wall, for carrying forwards from the group phase they’d need to beat Anduin who even if possibly already satisfied with their qualification would love to see a Mordor team sink and let Arnor to qualify instead.

In the optimal situation for Arnor even a draw with Rohan could be enough but they will not be letting things into second guessing if they can just win and do it – and in the case of a threeway-tie they are actually in the worst situation in what comes to the goal-differences, so they’ll sure do what they can – and it is a nice later-age men derby between the northern Dúnedain and Rohanians, so the aKM thinks both teams will give their best.

Arnor vs. Rohan
So Rohan will fall with honour. Why is it thay will fall? Well, first of all northern Dúnedain kings are stronger and have more stamina than Rohanians in general. Secondly the Rohan team have a couple of Mearas to help them (which is actually one of their greatest weapons in defence) and the King of the Dead. But on Arnor team there are not only the Witch-King (who can win games alone when in the mood or needed) but also Elendil organizing the defence.

Team Rohan’s blood was drawn too heavily after the glorious last season and this is now the result – they will stay in the group-phase even if their effort would have been valiant, at times (referring to the 0-2 defeat to Mordor).

The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-1 (or even 3-1).

Anduin vs. Mordor
Mordor will do its best to fight Anduin and to qualify but it will just not be enough against an opponent not only that much better than they but also – despite their qualification already – because of their willingness to throw Mordor out of the tournament just for the pleasure or righteousness of it.

After two games their stats on shooting and allowing the opponent to shoot look pretty much similar (and the opponents have been the same) – but Arnor is clearly the more efficient finisher and Amroth nicely “outkeeps” the Watcher. That said Mordor is decent team enough to not let Anduin just walk over them – and thus the ending numbers might be tighter some would like them to be ot would foresee them.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 2-1.

[Boromir88]

TTN Predictions: Round 3

GROUP A

Armenelos vs. The Barrowdowns-
Now the Downs did well to spoil a pseudo-home victory for the Havens, but it won't be the same against Armenelos. Armenelos' physical and tactical prowess will be too much for the Downs, and considering the Valimar crowd have cause to protest the Downer fans, Armenelos may actually no longer be public enemy #1 in the Blessed Realm. *Armenelos wins 3-1.

Havens vs. Valimar-
The Havens really needed to win the Barrowdowns to advance. They might be good enough to draw with Valimar, but a draw won't be enough. And we don't see anyway Manwe, Arien and co. will let a playoff appearance slip away, when they're playing at home. *Valimar wins 2-1.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand vs Dwarves United-
Dwarves United doesn't have anymore tricks remaining up their sleeves. Their victory over Gondolin insures AC Beleriand won't overlook them as an easy opponent. But if they were shut out by Inter, AC Beleriand should get a confident shutout here. *ACBeleriand wins 2-0.

Inter Beleriand vs Gondolin-
TTN had predicted Gondolin to take 2nd place before the round robin, but a disappointing loss to Dwarves United has nearly dashed all hopes. Gondolin can still advance with a 2-goal victory, but all gameplay and stats show that is an extreme longshot. A one-goal victory by Gondolin would put the 2 in a virtual tie and then which one advances? Shootout to determine 2nd place? The reason Gondolin won't advance this year though, Rog. *Draw 2-2.

GROUP C

Shire-Bree United vs Real Valinor-
Shire-Bree is outclassed in every aspect of the game. Their only quality player able to keep up with a team of Valar and their friends is Gandalf. Against the Valar one might expect some type of "gentlemen's" approach, where they only play respectfully as not to embarrass Shire-Bree, but that's not consistent with Tulkas' teams. *Real Valinor wins 3-0.

Doriath vs Hithlum-
We do agree with AKM here, that despite the large differences in the payroll of both teams, thie will be a closer and a more intriguing battle. In the end Hithlum's an offensive powerhouse and Doriath is no Real Valinor to be able to keep it contained. *Hithlum wins 4-2.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur vs FC Valinor-
Group D is going to be a tough one to figure out this round. It's clear FC Valinor will sweep the group, but how hard will they press to wrack up goals against Barad-Dur? And Barad-Dur will surely be going all in...how much success they'll have, well we're not betting much. Although Sauron poses a more dangerous threat than Quickbeam and Eldacar. And the blue wizards are better equipped to take on the deadly duo of Celegorm and Curufin. *FC Valinor wins 3-1.

Gondor vs Isengard-
How hard will Isengard be trying on this game already eliminated is unknown. But also what must be considered is Sauron's part ownership of Isengard might give them enough spirit to play spoiler against Gondor. They'll be able to stay with Gondor on the field, but will they have enough motivation to push for a win? *Draw 1-1.

GROUP E

Erebor vs Misty Mts-
Here's the match TTN has been waiting to see. We predicted earlier, that we didn't like the make-up of the Erebor team this year and put Misty Mountains forward as the other qualifier. Both teams look dead even, so that gives evidence the Mountains will be able to hang with Erebor, but it also begs the question are they good enough to get the win? A draw will not be good enough. *Misty Mountains wins 3-2.

Eriador vs Wilderland-
Eriador doesn't have the same ability to score when needed, like last year, but their defense and Elrond is just as good as ever (which isn't surprising). Wilderland's a decent team, but they won't score 2 against Eriador, and thats what they will need. *Eriador wins 2-1.

GROUP F

Nargothrond vs Tirion-
This is going to be the group filled with the most anticipation. Nargothrond's playing much better than their form last year. Tirion is showing their quality now that they're not in a murderous group. It's unfortunate one of these 3 teams will miss the playoffs, be we haven't the slightest clue which one. We'll go with our beginning of year picks. *Nargothrond wins 3-2.

Minas Tirith vs The Sea-
It must be said The Sea has been a disappointment so far, granted they haven't lost. It's always hard to beat Ulmo's team, but in this group not losing (or even winning 1-0) might not be good enough. It's hard to think all that high payroll going down the drain if The Sea is eliminated, but that might happen. *The Sea wins 2-0.

GROUP G

Angband vs Imladris-
Angband bounced back nicely, behind their strong defensive efforts, and we don't expect Imladris to be able to pull off any surprises. They're all alone in a sea of baddies and have not lost their dignity or honour. But they're still losing. *Angband wins 1-0.

Angfauglith vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth-
Tol In Gaurhoth has looked sharper than anyone so far in this tournament and Angfauglith has serious problems in the mid-field. Angfauglith looks to be a tougher match-up defensively for the wolves and with advancement almost surely secure, perhaps TIG will be off on their game a bit and take it too easily. Draw 1-1.

GROUP H

Arnor vs Rohan-
Arnor did well in a comeback against Mordor and Rohan has looked like one of the worst teams in the tournament thus far. I mean I know teams like Minas Tirith and Imladris haven't scored, but they're also up against significantly tougher competition. Group H is the weakest this year and Rohan is still not playing very well. It'll be an interesting match if only because Dunedain vs. Rohanion royalty, so it will just be a good clean game showcasing the skills of both teams. But nothing memorable or special for the recordbooks. *Draw 2-2.

Anduin vs Mordor-
TTN picked Mordor as one of our longshot chances to advance out of Group H. Nearly everyone else had Mordor written off as easy fodder, but they've been a worthy and difficult opponent. It at least showed the Arda world Mordor could rise again if someone actually invested some more money into the team. But their key must win match was last round against Arnor, and they couldn't hold onto it. Andun has played up to their talent so far, and it's hard to see with an attack force of Grimbeorn, Eorl, Boromir II and Haldir that they'll be troubled by Mordor's defense that relies on fear and pure evil will. *Anduin wins 3-1.

[Boromir88]

TTN Predictions: Round 3

GROUP A

Armenelos vs. The Barrowdowns-
Now the Downs did well to spoil a pseudo-home victory for the Havens, but it won't be the same against Armenelos. Armenelos' physical and tactical prowess will be too much for the Downs, and considering the Valimar crowd have cause to protest the Downer fans, Armenelos may actually no longer be public enemy #1 in the Blessed Realm. *Armenelos wins 3-1.

Havens vs. Valimar-
The Havens really needed to win the Barrowdowns to advance. They might be good enough to draw with Valimar, but a draw won't be enough. And we don't see anyway Manwe, Arien and co. will let a playoff appearance slip away, when they're playing at home. *Valimar wins 2-1.

GROUP B

AC Beleriand vs Dwarves United-
Dwarves United doesn't have anymore tricks remaining up their sleeves. Their victory over Gondolin insures AC Beleriand won't overlook them as an easy opponent. But if they were shut out by Inter, AC Beleriand should get a confident shutout here. *ACBeleriand wins 2-0.

Inter Beleriand vs Gondolin-
TTN had predicted Gondolin to take 2nd place before the round robin, but a disappointing loss to Dwarves United has nearly dashed all hopes. Gondolin can still advance with a 2-goal victory, but all gameplay and stats show that is an extreme longshot. A one-goal victory by Gondolin would put the 2 in a virtual tie and then which one advances? Shootout to determine 2nd place? The reason Gondolin won't advance this year though, Rog. *Draw 2-2.

GROUP C

Shire-Bree United vs Real Valinor-
Shire-Bree is outclassed in every aspect of the game. Their only quality player able to keep up with a team of Valar and their friends is Gandalf. Against the Valar one might expect some type of "gentlemen's" approach, where they only play respectfully as not to embarrass Shire-Bree, but that's not consistent with Tulkas' teams. *Real Valinor wins 3-0.

Doriath vs Hithlum-
We do agree with AKM here, that despite the large differences in the payroll of both teams, thie will be a closer and a more intriguing battle. In the end Hithlum's an offensive powerhouse and Doriath is no Real Valinor to be able to keep it contained. *Hithlum wins 4-2.

GROUP D

Barad-Dur vs FC Valinor-
Group D is going to be a tough one to figure out this round. It's clear FC Valinor will sweep the group, but how hard will they press to wrack up goals against Barad-Dur? And Barad-Dur will surely be going all in...how much success they'll have, well we're not betting much. Although Sauron poses a more dangerous threat than Quickbeam and Eldacar. And the blue wizards are better equipped to take on the deadly duo of Celegorm and Curufin. *FC Valinor wins 3-1.

Gondor vs Isengard-
How hard will Isengard be trying on this game already eliminated is unknown. But also what must be considered is Sauron's part ownership of Isengard might give them enough spirit to play spoiler against Gondor. They'll be able to stay with Gondor on the field, but will they have enough motivation to push for a win? *Draw 2-2.

GROUP E

Erebor vs Misty Mts-
Here's the match TTN has been waiting to see. We predicted earlier, that we didn't like the make-up of the Erebor team this year and put Misty Mountains forward as the other qualifier. Both teams look dead even, so that gives evidence the Mountains will be able to hang with Erebor, but it also begs the question are they good enough to get the win? A draw will not be good enough. *Misty Mountains wins 3-2.

Eriador vs Wilderland-
Eriador doesn't have the same ability to score when needed, like last year, but their defense and Elrond is just as good as ever (which isn't surprising). Wilderland's a decent team, but they won't score 2 against Eriador, and thats what they will need. *Eriador wins 2-1.

GROUP F

Nargothrond vs Tirion-
This is going to be the group filled with the most anticipation. Nargothrond's playing much better than their form last year. Tirion is showing their quality now that they're not in a murderous group. It's unfortunate one of these 3 teams will miss the playoffs, be we haven't the slightest clue which one. We'll go with our beginning of year picks. *Nargothrond wins 3-2.

Minas Tirith vs The Sea-
It must be said The Sea has been a disappointment so far, granted they haven't lost. It's always hard to beat Ulmo's team, but in this group not losing (or even winning 1-0) might not be good enough. It's hard to think all that high payroll going down the drain if The Sea is eliminated, but that might happen. *The Sea wins 2-0.

GROUP G

Angband vs Imladris-
Angband bounced back nicely, behind their strong defensive efforts, and we don't expect Imladris to be able to pull off any surprises. They're all alone in a sea of baddies and have not lost their dignity or honour. But they're still losing. *Angband wins 1-0.

Angfauglith vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth-
Tol In Gaurhoth has looked sharper than anyone so far in this tournament and Angfauglith has serious problems in the mid-field. Angfauglith looks to be a tougher match-up defensively for the wolves and with advancement almost surely secure, perhaps TIG will be off on their game a bit and take it too easily. Draw 1-1.

GROUP H

Arnor vs Rohan-
Arnor did well in a comeback against Mordor and Rohan has looked like one of the worst teams in the tournament thus far. I mean I know teams like Minas Tirith and Imladris haven't scored, but they're also up against significantly tougher competition. Group H is the weakest this year and Rohan is still not playing very well. It'll be an interesting match if only because Dunedain vs. Rohanion royalty, so it will just be a good clean game showcasing the skills of both teams. But nothing memorable or special for the recordbooks. *Draw 2-2.

Anduin vs Mordor-
TTN picked Mordor as one of our longshot chances to advance out of Group H. Nearly everyone else had Mordor written off as easy fodder, but they've been a worthy and difficult opponent. It at least showed the Arda world Mordor could rise again if someone actually invested some more money into the team. But their key must win match was last round against Arnor, and they couldn't hold onto it. Andun has played up to their talent so far, and it's hard to see with an attack force of Grimbeorn, Eorl, Boromir II and Haldir that they'll be troubled by Mordor's defense that relies on fear and pure evil will. *Anduin wins 3-1.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod:: Today: thousand-yard stares at the ready; classic relegation shock as Gondolin get shot by Legolas and Dwarves United, and the Havens get clattered by the Saucepan Man and the Downs, leaving both teams with zero wins. Elsewhere, more elimination blues as Imladris and Minas Tirith are still unable to get on the score sheet, with defensive powerhouses Angband and the Sea still waiting on the last day. Meanwhile, in Menegroth: “Don’t panic”, says Túrin and company, as the Hithlum scoring machine finally churns out goals. All these stories, predictions, quotes, and more, in today’s Matchday. Joining me today is the hopefully on-form tactical expert, Maikalomion.

Maika: Hello.

Elenrod: And the hopefully out-of-form, with regards to making controversial comments, Adam Smith.

Adam:: Still not the economist.

Elenrod: Indeed. With them is, in whatever form he is, Felagundion.

Adam: How was the lottery?

Felagundion: Wasted a hundred on my first week. I don’t think trying my luck is the way out of slavery.

Elenrod: The same could be said of many of this week’s teams, don’t you think? As usual, we’ll make our way down the list, starting with Group A. Now, what happened to the Havens?

Adam: Alien looked like he had one of those days any top-flight goalie has, when nothing but the absolute best shots seems to get past him. Combine that with an interested Bombadil, and the Havens were lucky not to lose.

Felagundion: The Barrow-downs were as dogged—and disruptive—as their fans. And they’ve chosen a grand stage to show that to the world.

Maika: As for the other game, we see glimpses of Arien’s 2012 form with his game for Valimar. It’s just so sad that she’s not getting enough touches. From what we’ve seen last year you know she can participate in the build-up play as well as bang in the goals. It doesn’t it have to be her against the entire defence, like what Legolas did; she can get Irmo and Ingwë involved in the attack.

Felagundion: All Manwë teams—heck, many Valar teams this year: Aulë’s, Ulmo’s, and Varda’s, for example—play a low-tempo game. Combine that with Valimar’s inability to dominate possession against a cohesive Armenelos midfield, that leads to how little of the ball Arien sees. Valinor and Real were very much up-tempo team—recover possession, then three passes later they’re in the opposition box. That’s where she thrived.

Adam: Next round they face a Havens team with a similarly cohesive midfield, especially with their double pivot of Eärwen and Mithrellas. So expect more of the same for Arien, I guess.

Elenrod: Any predictions for the final round?

Adam: Assuming Bombadil reverts to being uninterested, 2-0 Armenelos.

Maika: 1-all for the other one. No, 2-1 Valimar—the Havens defence is atrocious, and I expect Arien and one of Valimar’s midfielders to score.

Elenrod: That’s it then. Moving along…

Felagundion: Poor Gondolin. They met Leggy on his day, when his usually mediocre first touch was impeccable.

Adam: First goal was offside, though.

Felagundion: That wouldn’t have been anywhere near a goal had Penlod challenged the ball in the air instead of getting into a foot race with Leggy.

Adam: Hey, Penlod is fast. He was a poacher for Vinyamar, where he played more to his explosive speed than his height to get into the box and score those late winners.

Felagundion: Yes, but this and that are different. Over short distances of five to ten metres his sprinting is gold, but if your defensive strategy hinges on him running twenty meters to chase a water bug then you’ve lost.

Maika: I guess it’s just poor team-building on Gondolin’s part. They have a solid front five—when they switched to 4-1-3-2 to chase the game, they created a lot of chances and troubled Aulë enough to force him to change formations. But the ‘1’ in their 4-1-3-2 is not a real holding midfielder, and their defenders aren’t ones you want playing a high line. That’s why they’re so open in the middle and vulnerable to counterattacks.

Felagundion: They should’ve got a horse or an eagle instead. By the way, did any of you catch what Azaghâl said in the post-game press conference?

Elenrod: When he was bashed by the local press for how they treated the Gondolin players?

Felagundion: ‘Do you mean when we were a little bit rough with the tackling? In our league, we do that quite often. That's actually allowed in football.’ Brilliant quote.

Elenrod: Any comment on the other game? Or is that what you expected from the Beleriand derby?

Adam: AC Bel are still pretty much the bigger fish between the two, so yeah.

Felagundion: Denethor! I love him and his long diagonal passes. If your team is based on playing on the wings and outnumbering full-backs, then he’s gonna create a lot of chances.

Elenrod: What do you think happens to their next games?

Felagundion: 2-0 AC Bel. I expect Leggy to regress to the mean, fluff chances again, and he won’t be running past Rochallor. Also, Marach, unlike Rog, actually comes out of his box to clear long balls.

Maika: 2-1 Inter. Gondolin will have to attack, and that plays right into their hands. The next meeting between Beren and Salgant won’t be pretty. He’ll probably get sent off again.

Elenrod: On to Menegroth we go then. So what do we have here? Two teams just proving they’re on a different level to the other two?

Adam: Yeah, that’s basically it. But I’m worried about Hithlum. When you pay their attackers too much respect, when you set up defences a little closer to your box and concede the midfield, that’s when they shine, score four like they did here. But the teams in the quarterfinals or semis won’t give them that. They’d be like Real—be in-your-face and try to deny Túrin and company the ball.

Felagundion: In the other game, for a few minutes Real turned into the 1970s Netherlands team, dragging Doriath defenders all over the pitch. I’d be wary of them doing that against better squads, though—if they give away possession, and the opposition manages to find a mismatch quickly, that’s pretty much a goal conceded. Imagine if Ancalagon gets matched up with Enerdhil.

Elenrod: Predictions?

Felagundion: Can’t I just say both will be cricket scores? Oh, all right. 3-1 Hithlum.

Adam: 3-0 Real.

Elenrod: All right, then. Maika, you were a little bit quiet there. Not interested?

Maika: Not much to analyse, is there?

Elenrod: That’s true. Maybe Group D will be more to your liking.

Maika: Well, both teams who won had more talent than the teams they beat. Gondor’s approach was interesting, though. They didn’t just park the bus; they offered something going forward. It almost paid off, too—they created the first clear chance of the game. Eldacar should’ve converted that.

Felagundion: Didn’t you find Isengard scoring first vs Barad-dûr interesting?

Maika: Not really. Barad-dûr must have been expecting Quickbeam to win aerial balls, so they put the fellbeasts on him. They were then surprised when Saruman played a ball to his feet. But they adjusted after that and he was quiet for the rest of the game.

Elenrod: How do you think Gondor would fare against FC Val?

Maika: That’s a tough one… Barad-dûr has a better defence, and a slightly better offence, than Gondor. But enough to score against FC Val? I think 2-0 FC Val.

Adam: So second seed hinges on Gondor’s score vs Isengard. Hmm… 2-1 Gondor? Penalties for the last spot?

Elenrod: I guess that’s it for Group D. How about Group E? Will Erebor still make it? Do Misty Mts have a chance?

Maika: Aside from Eriador, this group looks open. Well, Wilderland are in a tough spot—they’re playing Eriador.

Felagundion: Which they can win. Erebor lost just by a goal.

Maika: It was a pretty comprehensive 1-0 defeat. Eriador were just better in all areas. Classic Elrond stuff; they just don’t overexert themselves. Then again, they don’t concede much, so they hardly have to chase a game.

Adam: Also, Wilderland are atrocious at the back. Maybe it’s just match-up problems, Ents guarding creatures with flames.

Elenrod: So how many goals will Wilderland concede against Eriador?

Adam: I’m thinking 1-0 Eriador.

Maika: Then 3-2 Erebor, with Bard scoring the winner.

Elenrod: On to Group F, then.

Felagundion: When Uinen scored the Sea’s second goal I was distraught. Distraught, I tell you. I didn’t think Ulmo and company would concede a second. To my great relief we did score an equaliser, but afterwards, our players were all knackered. If there had been extra time, or if there had been a bit more time on the clock, I think we would’ve lost. We really need one good centre-back.

Adam: That’s a bad thing, because Tirion cruised past Minas Tirith. Tirion v Nargothrond’s very important for deciding who advances, because I don’t think the Sea would drop the ball against Minas Tirith.

Felagundion: Yes, I’m very worried. Good thing we have a better goal difference, but we can’t play for a draw, because we don’t have all that good a defence to sit on. I hope we control possession, score an early goal, then just play on the break.

Maika: Glaurung will get a lot of space in the hole. He’d have a better game than he had vs the Sea.

Felagundion: It was depressing how easily Tar-Ciryatan stuffed Glaurung in his pocket.

Adam: By the way, another wonderful quote from Denethor II after the game. ‘You say talented players, but I don’t know. Are they that talented? I don’t know, really. I wish you were right.’

Felagundion: And then afterwards, when someone asked him if he had any regrets. ‘If I had a chance to change anything, I would have tried harder to get my son in. I wouldn’t have wasted 10 million on Éomer, who’s been useless.’ What I wouldn’t do to be a fly in their locker room.

Elenrod: The scores?

Felagundion: Oh, Eru… Nargothrond and Tirion draw 2-all?

Adam: Maybe 2-0 Sea. They’d win, and I don’t think they’d concede, but I doubt they can score three or more.

Elenrod: So spot kicks between Tirion and the Sea for the last spot? That’d be fun—second straight time the Sea would need penalties to qualify. Moving along; Group G, then. Was anyone surprised when Angband beat Anfauglith?

Adam: What? No. Angband have a better squad overall than Anfauglith. Anfauglith’s goalie is better, definitely, and maaaybe they have a better second striker, but in all other areas…

Felagundion: Well, both of their midfields are crap.

Adam: There is that.

Elenrod: How about Imladris? Is anyone alive there?

Maika: Well, if they or Minas Tirith—or both—fail to score, that’d be the first time a team failed to score in the Arda Cup. Even the hapless Shire-Bree squad placed in a group with that Doriath squad, as well as Himring and Tirion, managed to score.

Elenrod: Tough luck to be placed in a group of solid defences when you don’t have an Arda-class striker. What do you think will happen?

Maika: 2-0 to Angband.

Adam: And 1-0 to TiG.

Elenrod: And, finally, group H. So, Mordor beat Rohan, but they lost to Arnor. What happens if Rohan beat Arnor?

Felagundion: A whole lot of fun. The same scenario’s in play in Group B—there’s a chance of a team advancing to the knockout rounds with only three points. There’s a lot of firsts that could happen in this Arda Cup.

Maika: I don’t think it’ll happen, though. Arnor are clearly the second most talented team in the group.

Elenrod: Despite leaving it very late against Mordor?

Maika: Well, they upped the tempo only in the last twenty minutes of the game, when they still had to chase the game. Super intense pressing is usually done in either of these two phase—very early, when you hope to score an early goal then just sit back and play on the break, or late, when you can bear down superior attackers on tired legs.

Felagundion: It also helps when you have a specialist late-game poacher. Loved the ‘Super Araphor’ chants by the Arnorians.

Elenrod: Scores?

Maika: Hmm, 2-1 Arnor.

Felagundion: 3-1 Anduin? Well, I hope someone scores more than two in this group.

Elenrod: Do you have any favourite goals this week?

Felagundion: Arien’s solo effort was the only one that really appealed to me.

Adam: I liked Legolas’s winner. One touch and then a screamer from thirty metres.

Felagundion: A better goalie would have come out of his box and made the angle more difficult.

Adam: True, but Legolas doing his thing—maybe I’m a closet Leggy fanboy.

Maika: Aradan’s volley from a long ball was something special; to anticipate it and boot it in first time took some skill.

Elenrod: None of the Fëanorion stepped up this week, did they? By the way, did no-one think of Inter’s goal vs Roma when they saw Mordor’s goal? Just slick passing from the Nazgûls and the Mouth.

Felagundion: I suspect shenanigans from Sauron.

Elenrod: Haha, that’s possible. And that brings us to the end of another episode of The Matchday. Join us again next week as we discuss the winners and the losers of the groups, as well as predict the round of sixteen games. As usual, our thanks to Maika and Adam and Felagundion. Bye for now, and see you then.

[the phantom]

Group A @ Valimar

Finally it appeared that all the Numenoreans would get to see their football. They had come in droves over the sea—far too many to get tickets and still leave room for the home fan majority. But for this round most of the Valinoreans were dead-set on seeing their two favorites play in the Havens vs Valimar contest, and as the games were being played simultaneously that left open tickets for the visitors. Not to mention Valinoreans were feeling pretty hostile towards the Barrow-Downs what with their rudeness and outright vandalism, thus the home folks didn’t feel badly about allowing Numenor to own the stadium and hoping Barrow-Downs would be routed.

There were a few that were hoping for both Havens and Valimar to qualify, but the precise scenario necessary for that to happen was unlikely thus the more realistic folks didn’t dare to dream and were content if they could see a fine competition for the spot that Armenelos didn’t earn.

The feature game between The Havens and Valimar would be played in Valimar’s grand arena just as the first two rounds had been. The game between Armenelos and The Barrow-Downs however would be played a little ways away—more up than over. The stadium was called Ilmarin Field, but of course it wasn’t actually on the very top of Taniquetil where Manwe and Varda had their seats and halls, but rather it was partway up the winding path on a low shoulder of the mountain (which at 9,000 feet was still high enough to make a difference in the match).

Manwe and his squad call Ilmarin Field home during the summer/autumn regional league season, thus many though that team Valimar would opt to play their final contest here to gain an even greater home-field advantage. Manwe and his Ainur have quite a good record at Ilmarin through the years, partly due to the elevation. While their lesser degree of incarnation robs them of a degree of fine touch achieved by some others, it also leaves them more free to exert themselves without the annoyance of needing copious amounts of oxygen, thus the high stadium worked quite well for them.

But in the end team Valimar wanted to play their contest in the larger and more historic stadium, and frankly they were feeling comfortable there after two games and several practices. Why stop something when it’s working? And some said that another reason was to keep Barrow-Downs and their supporters from causing more trouble there. They were tired of the famous stadium bells being messed with. Ilmarin field on the other hand—there were just fewer things to mess with. Everything was solid rock construction carved right out of the mountain and held together with the power of the Valar, though more than likely the Barrow-Wights would merely see it as a challenge.

It was 2 o’clock and both stadiums were packed and eager to begin. Both Armenelos and Valimar looked confident, and their fans felt the same, but the Barrow-Downs and Havens were keen to stake their own claim to the playoffs. Upsets do happen after all.

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The Numenoreans had their own proud football tradition, but they weren’t too proud to appreciate being in the stands at Ilmarin Field. All of the walkways beneath the stadium were open along the western side of the stadium, and fans that were seated in the eastern seats made sure to walk the long way around so they too could see the view of the plain of Valinor stretched out beneath the stadium’s perch.

There was much pointing as onlookers tried to pick out the arena of Valimar in the mass of miniscule structures far below. Some that were knowledgeable about the layout of the city doubtless guessed correct, but from such a height only Elf-eyes could be certain.

Upon entering the stadium it didn’t take long to notice that their opponent, The Barrow-Downs, had very little support indeed. A small section of Wights at the north end was all—perhaps two-hundred at the most. The few locals that had opted to attend this match rather than the Valimar contest were understandably worried. “Where are the rest of the Wights?” they wondered, and they were certain the answer was—“Causing trouble somewhere.” But the Numenoreans were happy to turn the arena into their home stadium, and soon play was underway to the tune of various match-songs and traditional chants of Numenor.

Team Armenelos was firmly in command from the start—they were crisp and precise, and they had the size advantage as well without lacking speed. It was obvious that Elros and his team were giddy with seemingly the entire world willing them to win, and they were energized and keen to blow away the competition. Only five minutes in Ar Adunakhor gained a header that was just barely too tall, and then minutes later Tar Ancalimon sent a snipe that was hardly turned away by the keeper. At the 15 minute mark Armenelos saw their best chance yet as Elros was released perfectly and took an immediate shot, but Alien guessed right and made the improbable save.

The crowd groaned, but all wearing smiles. It was only a matter of time until the goal came—they kept getting chances. But then the fans at the top of the western side of the stadium grew silent, and the silence slowly spread, but was soon followed by a buzz of noise. The rest of the stadium wondered what the cause was, but word soon reached them—fans on the top row had heard from far below a tumult of sound, and as they fell silent they could hear it well enough to tell the familiar notes of the mighty stadium bells of Valimar. The sound of the bells was said to carry far beyond what they should so as to make all in the land aware of homeside goals, and evidently the sound carried far indeed.

Valimar had scored. But of course The Havens might’ve scored before, so they couldn’t truly tell the score. “Really they should have a different pattern or something to signify taking-the-lead or drawn-level,” several folks were heard to say. But soon their attention was drawn back to their own game, as Ar Pharazon had earned himself a free kick from about 25 yards out. Before the anticipation could fully build the ball was set quickly and Pharazon struck it, just barely clearing the wall. Alien had no view of it until it flew up over the heads of his teammates, and for the briefest of instants he thought it was going right to him, but it broke to his right and he had no chance of stopping it as close as it already was and moving at a decent clip. Armenelos had the well-earned lead!

As the crowd celebrated in song an eagle took flight out from the window of a solitary tower on the east side of the stadium, and he banked immediately to the west and went into a dive towards Valimar below.

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Meanwhile the Elves and Ainur watching the Havens vs Valimar match were intensely into things down in Valimar. It was an absolute battle, but a clean one, and a beauty to watch for fans of fine defensive work. Both sides were denying quite well, and both sides had gained but one dangerous look, thanks to the skill and athleticism of Arien and some nice pair work by Cirdan and Earendil. The difference was Manwe had saved the shot while Arien’s had been too hot for Amandil to handle, thus Valimar was sitting on a 1-0 lead.

Only minutes after Arien’s goal a messenger eagle arrived and word soon spread through the crowd that, as expected, Armenelos was leading Barrow-Downs. Havens and Valimar were at a stalemate in the meantime, with both holding possession decently in the midfield but entirely unable to advance. After the half-hour mark The Havens changed things up and tried a few long speculative passes, but Namo and his fellow defenders were having none of it. Shortly before halftime Valimar tried to send a few all the way to Arien, but Ar Zimrathan and Imrazor got in the way every time. With only seconds remaining in the half Arien finally knocked one down and got a decent touch on it and sent it to Ingwe, but Olwe beat him to it and cleared it.

Just as halftime arrived another messenger eagle flew in with news. There had been another goal at Ilmarin Field. The spectators nodded their heads and pointed to the eagle, telling neighbors that they had expected the Numenoreans to dominate, but then the message spread—it was The Barrow-Downs that had scored!

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Back up at Ilmarin the Armenelos supporters were worriedly conversing with neighbors during the halftime break. At around the 30-minute mark their team had started losing their edge, and as time approached 40 minutes they were beginning to look almost sluggish. Most of the fans hadn’t had to wonder what the cause was, as they were feeling it themselves after a half-hour of singing, yelling, and jumping. It was just hard to breath that high. Of course they and the players had noticed it from the get-go, but they had come in with so much energy and had pushed right through it, but there came a point where all the exertion without sufficient breath was taking a toll. The players were cramping easily, and were developing pains in their sides.

The Barrow-Downs on the other hand featured several players that didn’t seem to have such limitations—the Wights obviously, as well as Bombadil and Goldberry. In truth only Fatty Lumpkin looked the least bit bothered, and thus the game quickly swung the way of the Downs. First Bombadil wound his way through the tired defense for a snap-shot that was barely blocked by Atanamir, then Saucepan Man nearly scored off a corner, and then a bit later Hookbill forced a save again after a dizzying series of passes that the Numenoreans simply didn’t have the energy to follow.

Seeing the plight of the Numenoreans the Downs switched to an attack that quickly flipped sides of the field in an attempt to outnumber Armenelos on one side, which forced the defenders to flow left to right following the ball. After several minutes of such treatment Armenelos looked downright ragged and with but two minutes until halftime Bombadil and company ran right through the defense like water through a sieve, and the match was level.

The Armenelos supporters vented their frustrations on the Valinorean host committee. “That’s why they made us play here! They knew this would happen! This is ridiculous playing in conditions like this. It’s entirely unequal.” But the spectators near the section of Wights found themselves answered mockingly. “You good-guys are always making Orcs and Wights and such play games when the sun is high and shining down. This is no different. How does it feel?”

But Elros and company were not shaken as easily as the spectators, and they looked calm when they emerged for the second half. Soon it was clear that they had recovered and had adjusted their play to compensate. They were doing their best to avoid long runs, and were sharp and focused on their possession passing, sending the ball front to back, side to side, but withdrawing whenever they looked in clear danger of losing possession. After ten minutes of it the Downs began to turn up the pursuit, and attempting to force passes into traffic, and so Armenelos simply kept going all the way back to the rear. After a few more minutes of that the Downs, having only had possession for a couple minutes the entire half, decided to get much more aggressive, not even allowing the keeper to receive the ball without pressure. And that’s when Armenelos struck!

As if they were one unified being the whole team recognized the opportunity and acted accordingly. Atanamir sent it over to Telperien who sent it all the way to the middle to Ancalimon who ran to meet it and chipped it back to Tar Miriel who was rushing directly at him, and she immediately booted it forward over the defenders. Adunakhor, Pharazon, and Elros were all sprinting flat-out to catch up to it, and River Woman, GaladriWight and Lumpkin sandwiched between. When it fell Adunakhor managed to get in the way of River Woman and Pharazon leaped and faked a head-touch, which momentarily slowed Lumpkin and GaladriWight—just enough for Elros to dash past and receive the ball himself, and after one touch to slow it and one touch to set it he sent a perfect rocket to the right post and Alien had no chance for the save. Armenelos was into the lead once again!

Soon after word was passed around that just before the goal the folks at the western top had heard bells again—evidently Valimar had scored once more. But of course no one knew if it was 2-0 or 2-4, but the messenger eagle exiting the tower would soon know, as he was on his way down to Valimar to tell of Armenelos’ lead.

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When the eagle arrived to deliver his news he found that his beloved Valimar was in firm command, having just taken a 2-0 lead. It was Arien again doing the damage, this time off a feed from Vaire. As would be expected of a Manwe-led team (particularly one already as good as qualified and playing a likable foe) Valimar went into full defense after the second goal, content to hold their lead and confident they could do so. And even if Armenelos were to score a smashing victory and gain the top spot in the group, Valimar felt equally confident whether they were in the playoffs in the top of the bracket or the bottom.

But as time ticked away without any messages of further scoring at Ilmarin Field it seemed evident that Valimar would in fact take first in the group, and the home fans really grew excited, as they would have the opportunity to host the first round playoff match. All eyes went immediately to a messenger eagle when he arrived near the 75 minute mark, but he simply reported that Armenelos was still going full possession, but keeping the Downs honest with an occasional dash forward with a long pass, and they were smartly alternating the runners so as not to tire anyone.

When the clock went past 80 minutes fans began to talk seriously about buying tickets to the first-round match, but Havens was a proud team with good players and it turned out they wouldn’t go down without a fight. Finally Cirdan and Earendil managed to confound their marks with a spectacular one-two game from the left side, and Earendil drove it home as if he was stabbing a sword into Ancalagon. The fans applauded the goal, now somewhat nervous about losing their lead in the group (if Armenelos scored again), but the final minutes of both games passed without an event of import.

It was Valimar grabbing the first spot and Armenelos grabbing the second! And their fans celebrated far into the night….

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Armenelos 2-1 Barrow-Downs
on target 8-7
tot shots 16-15
GOALS:
*22, 1-0 Ar Pharazon
*43, 1-1 Bombadil (SPM)
*66, 2-1 Elros (TarMiriel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Armenelos- TarAncalimon
*BDowns- LalwendeMP, Lumpkin

Havens 1-2 Valimar
on target 5-4
tot shots 11-9
GOALS:
*17, 0-1 Arien (Namo)
*63, 0-2 Arien (Vaire)
*84, 1-2 Earendil (Cirdan)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Havens- Mithrelas
*Valimar-

---------  W-D-L   Pts  Score
Valimar    2-1-0   7    5-2
Armenelos  2-1-0   7    5-3
Havens     0-1-2   1    4-6
BDowns     0-1-2   1    3-6

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MESPN Exit Interviews

MESPN: Mr. Bombadil—how would you summarize the performance of your squad this year?
Bombadil: Well, derry-dol, it was a delight to play alongside my dear Goldberry, and I’m certainly looking to do so again!
MESPN: But what about your results? Are you pleased?
Bombadil: Results are what they are, and you can’t change them—you can just enjoy being here now. We earned what we got, but I think we can do better next time, my hearties!
MESPN: So you’re back next year?
Bombadil: Unless my lady Goldberry leaves, I can’t say that I will.
MESPN: Barrow-Wight, can you tell us where this squad is headed?
BWight: We were so low-budget that we made out with cash despite the early exit. You can bet we’ll be looking to spend some next year.
MESPN: Any targets?
BWight: I can think of a couple, but I’m not sure it’s appropriate to discuss them while they’re still playing with other squads in the tournament.
MESPN: We understand. Thanks a lot, guys.

MESPN: So guys—tough loss today.
Olwe: Yes indeed. Valimar is solid obviously, but we didn’t feel outclassed in this group. I think we were right there.
Falastur: Oh yes! It’s just an inch here and there that we need to scrape out and we’ll be into the playoffs again.
MESPN: Cirdan, do you think this squad looks the same next year?
Cirdan: Well, one can never promise, but given that we’re not horribly over-budget and very close to qualifying, I don’t see any radical changes on the horizon. I’m back certainly.
Olwe: And me as well.
Falastur: Me too.
MESPN: Any possible additions to shake things up that you already have in mind, or can you not say?
Falastur: Well, I can say I’ve had discussions with the other Gondorin ship-kings in the past, and one or two of them may have shown some interest.
MESPN: Well all right. Good luck, guys.

[Boromir88]

GROUP D @ Dol Amroth and Pelargir

Both games in this final round of Group D were being played at the 2pm hour. A time when the sun would still be shining high in the sky and between the lunch and dinner hours for most fans attending. At Pelargir Park it would be FC Valinor vs. Barad-Dur. FC Valinor was assured qualification, but could still lose 1st place if Barad-Dur won. That would send a shock all around Arda though, as the stunning Valinoreans and Noldor have scored 6 goals and conceded 0. The only question seemed to be how much would FC Valinor want to beat Barad-Dur and thus make it easier for Gondor's qualification. And the 2nd match would be played in Dol Amroth, as the home team took on Isengard. Isengard's elimination was already assured, so the only question here, would they roll over, or would there be enough spirit infused by Sauron's minority ownership that makes things difficult for Gondor?

Pelargir

Pelargir Park was packed mostly with Umbarians and Orcs from Mordor who were there at Sauron's bidding. But several thousand Noldor were still around having booked tickets for the group (how could you pass up the show Curufin, Celegorm and company were putting on?) and hitched a ride on the large mobile stadium, that was parked in Pelargir for the round 1 games in Group F. There were also some Gondorians, fully behind the FC Valinor team with whole hearts, wanting to see a 3-0, 4-0 massacre.

It was a nightmare start to Barad-Dur. They were chasing FC Valinor's tailcoats. FC's movement, passing, and skill were just sublime and Barad-Dur was having a difficult time keeping up. Already in the 12th minute, Argon received a pass from Yavanna, he sidestepped the Fellbeast swooping down for the challenge and hit a rising blast over the diving Grishnakh.

Dol Amroth

In Dol Amroth the scoreboard lit up when FC Valinor scored, letting the massively pro-Gondorian crowd in Seaside Financial Field Barad-Dur was already losing and not even 15 minutes had gone by. The crowd bellowed melodious songs and cheers, hoping to boost Gondor's performance in their own match. Because while Barad-Dur wasn't likely to beat FC Valinor, Gondor entered the day with 1 goal, Barad-dur had 3, so they needed to not only win the match, but score some goals too.

Isengard wasn't doing anything against Gondor's stout midfield play, but their defense was playing with just enough drive to make it difficult on Gondor. "Come on!" yelled the anxious crowd "playing defensively might have been wise against FC Valinor but not in a must win match against Isengard!"

Gondor was controlling possession and finally took the initiative from the wild crowd cheering them on. Anarion hit the goal post, it had the Gondorians ready to burst and applaud the goal. With Anarion only rattled the woodwork, their joy dropped, but then Romendacil fought his way past Mauhur and cleaned up the rebound! Gondor had the lead, and a quick glance at the scoreboard showing the other match showed FC Valinor still held the 1-0 lead too!

Gondor wasn't done, the midfield was still controlling the majority of the possession and taking every opportunity to push forwards. Anarion, Romendacil and Eldacar were wreaking havoc in Isengard's defensive half and their defensive mid-fielders were stopping any sort of Isengard attack in their tracks. With minutes to go in the half, Meneldil took the ball from Grima and sent it immediatly to Anarion. Gondor was on the break and committed several bodies forward. Anarion passed it wide to Ciryandil who, in turn flicked a high ball to the other side of the field. Eldacar was able to chest it down and with Gondor able to switch up the point of attack within seconds. Eldacar only had Lugdush on the right side to beat. He easily sprinted past Lugdush and ran straight on goal, Ugluk was helpless and indecisive, and Eldacar gave Gondor the 2 goal lead right before the halftime whistle!

With Gondor playing exciting football for the final 15 minutes before half, the fans didn't stray their eyes off the field, nor see what was happening in the other match. So, what had been happening in Pelargir?

Pelargir

After the early goal, Barad-Dur was threatened by the fact this game could get out of control really really fast. Afterall in a span of 15 minutes they put up 3 goals on Isengard and in another quick period of time put up 2 on Gondor. Barad-Dur didn't have the athletes to run with FC Valinor's attack, nor did they have the solidity of a team organized midfield of Gondor. But don't underestimate Sauron's ability to find the right tactics and put his team in the best chances to succeed.

It was cleary early to Sauron if they tried to play FC Valinor like Isengard did, this was going to be a massacre. So after the early goal, Barad-Dur was a great offensive team from set pieces, but they showed to be a good defensive team as well. Sauron was done trying to chase Curufin and Celegorm around. If someone got beat...foul and make FC Valinor prove they'll have to score from free kicks or corners. Barad-Dur's midfield in particular, as soon as Yavanna, or Argon or one of the Feanorian sons sprinted by, they did just enough to trip them up and stop the action.

Unable to get into a smooth, rhymic attack, and with Sauron able to now set up his defense, FC Valinor was having a lot of trouble. The Valinoreans and Noldor were booing the referee, arguing it was clear what Barad-Dur was trying and thought players needed to be sent off for this type of unsporty play. But to the ref's eyes it appeared Barad-Dur was trying to make a play on the ball, and not just recklessly tripping FC Valinor players.

Whatever the case, the defensive strategy was working, as FC Valinor showed a weakness in scoring from set pieces, and Barad-Dur were experts not only creating goals from them, but defending them as well. Thus the half ended only in a 0-1 defecit for Barad-Dur. And taking into account the other game, both Gondor and Barad-dur were in a dead tie at the half: 4 points, 0 goal differential, and 3 goals scored each. If it stayed this way would that mean a shootout?

Although few fans thought based on what was at stake and the talent on the field, there were more goals to come in the 2nd. And there would be.

Staying in Pelargir, Sauron appeared to light a fire under his forwards during the break, because they had done nothing in the 1st half and how long would Sauron's new defensive tactics hold FC Valinor to 1 goal? Especially since the "foul to stop Celegorm and Curufin from getting into a passing rhythm" strategy risked getting a player sent off because a Fellbeast, Herumor, Angamaite and Beruthiel already had 1 yellow card from the first half.

So Barad-Dur furiously went all in upon FC Valinor's goal. Being unprepared by the sudden fury, were disorganized and slightly out of position, Thorondor came in late and fouled Beruthiel. It would be free kick about 7 meters out of the box. Beruthiel passed it wide to Castamir, but Maglor had him marked well and was running the Numenorean to the out of bounds. Castamir's angle had been cut off, but he somehow slid a pass between Maglor's legs. Then Sauron had cut inside Indis. Huan slid towards the near post, thinking Sauron would try to keep the ball low, but the Dark Lord cleverly flicked it over the diving hound. It was all level! And the Umbarian and Orcs went just wild. Simply wild.

Dol Amroth

So wild that when the packed crowd in Dol Amroth heard feint joyous screams (Dol Amroth stadium was relatively queit with the crowd being pleased by Gondor 2-0 lead and the 2nd half was just getting underway so many fans were still returning to their seats). They looked to see the bad news, Barad-Dur had actually come level with FC Valinor, which meant Gondor could win this game 5-0...it still wouldn't matter, Barad-Dur would have more points if they held onto the draw.

That news deflated the Dol Amroth crowd, who were now paying more attention to the other games scoreboard, hoping FC Valinor had the spirit to retake the lead, and not watching the fact that in Gondor's game Isengard was not ready to go away just yet.

Pelargir

After the thrilling game tying goal, Barad-Dur seemed to let up on the gas a bit, because the goal insured an excellent chance of Barad-Dur advancing. Sauron was still sticking to the defensive strategy of "foul an FC player when you're beat" though and he might have finally exposed a weakness with the FC team. They had trouble scoring when their superior speed and ball skills were neutralized by set pieces. If Barad-dur actually had some more invested talent, they may have just turned this game upside down and shocked the world.

But Barad-Dur's unsporty play did come back to hurt them. Not in getting one of their players sent off, but angering FC Valinor enough to make a more serious effort. Eventually in the 73rd minute, Celegorm and Curufin just plain outran Barad-Dur's defenders (and avoided the desperate tackles trying to stop them). Either one could have scored, but it was Celegorm giving it up to Curufin to reclaim the 1-goal lead.

Dol Amroth

Relief came to Dol Amroth after seeing FC Valinor quickly take back the lead, but it was still a precarious situation for Gondor. Barad-Dur now had 4 goals to Gondor's 3, so unless FC Valinor showed even more effort to increase their lead, Gondor needed another goal. They were hoping not to try to put their faith to advance on the whims of FC Valinor's ethics, and place it on their home team. But either Gondor decided to play the half more defensively, or they just believed Isengard wouldn't try to fight their way back.

Whatever the case, Isengard was showing quite a bit of spirit and found renewed spirit to play on. Maybe from Sauron's influence in Isengard's team? Who knows? 3 minutes after the crowd got a slight boost from seeing FC Valinor reclaim the lead, Saruman put a dagger in their heart. Isengard scored! How could this happen? They were eliminated...they had nothing to play for, yet they showed up with more passion and drive in the 2nd half than Gondor! Now Gondor would need another goal just to get back into a dead tie with Barad-Dur, or FC Valinor had to keep scoring goals while keeping Barad-Dur off the board (and that was less sure...I mean Barad-Dur already tied the game once!).

Pelargir

After the fantic beginning to the 2nd half and FC Valinor grabbed the lead again, the pace of the game really slowed down. FC felt assured of their 1st place spot (Barad-Dur scoring 2 goals in under 20 minutes, no way). And while Celegorm and Curufin were particularly annoyed by Barad-Dur's fouling strategy, Sauron called his team off. With the tempers soothed and FC Valinor having no need to spend energy for more goals, and tougher playoff battles on the horizon, FC Valinor in kind did not try to increase their lead. The game had been exciting, fans saw a lot of great play. The FC fans were in good moods because they had cleared the group with 9 points. The larger Barad-dur crowd were also feeling very good, their team gave everything FC Valinor could handle. Sauron had exposed a weakness, but just didn't have the talent to capitilize. Now they turned towards the scoreboard, hoping Isengard could hold the score at 1-2 in the final 10 minutes.

Dol Amroth

Gondor was frantic, their fans had chewed their fingers raw from anxiety. But Gondor was best when playing careful and methodically, not desperately trying to grab another goal. And Isengard was defending well, plus Ugluk who had seemed lost and out of position most of the time, was suddenly making leaping and strong armed saves. And then the ref blew the final whistle. No!!! That was it, it was over for Gondor. The small Isengard crowd marched out to a drum beat and chants. They were back to Isengard, and even if their team left with no points, they had not rolled over like most people had thought. They fought on to the end, even after that humilation against FC Valinor. Gondorians remained in the stadium, stunned and looking at the two scoreboards. Their team had won the match, but this had to be a terrible nightmare. They were going to wake up soon and somehow Gondor would be in the playoffs, Barad-Dur would be eliminated. But it was not a nightmare. Gondor was out.


Barad-Dur 1-2 FC Valinor
on target 3-7
tot shots 10-16
GOALS:
*12, 0-1 Argon (Yavanna)
*48, 1-1 Sauron (Castamir)
*73, 1-2 Curufin (Celegorm)
YELLOW CARDS:
*BDur- Angamaite, Sangahyando, Fellbeast#1, Beruthiel, Herumor
*FCVal- Thorondor, Argon

Gondor 2-1 Isengard
on target 7-3
tot shots 16-8
GOALS:
*35, 1-0 Romendacil (Anarion)
*44, 2-0 Eldacar (Ciryandil)
*76, 2-1 Saruman (Nazgul#5)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Gondor- Ciryandil
*Isengard- Nazgul#5, Lurtz, Wulf, Beechbone

Final round...

Group D        W-D-L  Pts  GD
FC Valinor     3-0-0    9  +7
Barad-Dur      1-1-1    4  0
Gondor         1-1-1    4  -1
Isengard       0-0-3    0  -6

TTN's exit interviews with the captains of the eliminated teams; Isengard and Gondor will be out after all round 3 matches.

[Nogrod]

Group E at Erebor & Mirkwood

The last games of group E would be played at Mirkwod and Arkenstone Arena at Erebor. The hosting side Erebor would meet Misty Mountains at their home stadium inside Erebor while Wilderland would meet the already qualified Eriador at the stadium of the Enchanted River just south of the Elven road in Mirkwood.

The Mirkwood Stadium with it’s blueprint seats of different shapes and sizes and prespun webs for spiders hanging over it was once again crowded by a host of different creatures from ents to Nazgûl and elves to spiders.

The Eriador fans were facing a kind of a “first world problem”. With their own team already qualified – actually as the number one of the group – they could just enjoy the game. But if they thought about which other team they would wish to qualify most of them would have probably thought Wilderland with the bunch of elves and ents in its ranks. For even if the two other teams had great Eagles in them they were mostly composed of dwarves, men and creatures of darkness. But how to cheer for the team that is playing against your own team – or to really boo to them from the bottom of your heart if you want them to succeed rather than the two others playing another game far away?

For all the other teams and their fans it was a thrilling situation before the last games as every team had a chance to qualify – and not to. Before this round Wilderland had two points and Erebor and Misty Mts. one each. So if Erebor and Misty Mts. draw their game Wilderland could qualify even if it lost with one goal. But if either Erebor or Misty Mts. won the game between the two, that team would go to four points requiring Wilderland to win the game against Eriador to qualify.

What that means is that even if the main sight of both Erebor and Misty Mts. will be on just winning the game (and hoping Wilderland will not win Eriador), Wilderland will wish to score as many goals as possible in case of tied points. And looking at the perspective of a draw between Erebor and Misty Mts. they’d want to score a lot as well just to have a chance.

So every team but Eriador wishes to score as much as possible… and with teams whose philosophy in general is “outscore the opponent” facing this kind of a round, well there just couldn’t be better starting point for a last round, now could there?



Mirkwood

From early on it was clear both teams were starting it carefully – or then Eriador was just gracefully elegant in shutting Wilderland down. The farther the period went the more one started to think in the latter vein as the oftentimes wildly attacking Wilderland was plain denied their normal offensive game by Eriador’s tight defences. But focusing on that Eriador itself had only rare chances of making a difference in offence.

It was not exactly unentertaining, but Wilderland were just not willing to change gear in any definitive way in fear of opening a path for counteroffencives that might ruin their chances depending on what went on in the other game – and as long as it was a draw in the other game they would have been fools to take big risks early in the game.

Erebor

In a total mirror-image of the game in Mirkwood the one between Erebor and Misty Mountains was all fire and brimstone from the very beginning. No mercy was asked and none was given – and when the referees cut into the game it seemed both sides despised their efforts to create order – although they were only too happy to gain nice free kicks from good positions.

In the Erebor defence the great eagles Meneldor and Landroval were responsible for keeping Durin’s Bane at bay while Thorin Oakenshield insisted on keeping Azog in control… two great eagles against a great Balrog, or Thorin vs. Azog… it was some true wrestling of both physics and wills.

On the other end Misty Mts. played more of a position defence than guarding certain persons with Caradhras and Watcher closing the center and William the Troll and Gwaihir going around them trying to cut any passes inside the box or physically removing ones trying to come too near the center – and at times they were actually given strong support by the Great Goblin coming that much down to assist.. but even if they seemed to be insurmountable for the humans like Bard and Brand, Smaug and the Nazgûl didn’t seem to care but rushed through and beside them on their will – creating a lot of struggle and mayhem as they went. Just think of Smaug getting mad at Caradhras and then Caradhras retaliating Smaug’s offences…

It was not a game for the weaker souls – especially if one took in the stakes they were playing: the winner would qualify (most probably) and the draw would be bad and would require a game like 5-5 or something to give either team a chance of qualifying.

Mirkwood

Coming towards the half an hour marker the game was still even and Eriador was blocking Wilderland’s efforts mostly on the midfield while concentrating themselves on the few counterattacks – which were only quite dangerous at best. NogWight did boot one relatively good shot from about 25 meters but it went a meter wide and Glorfindel’s header from a corner got tangled in Skinbark’s boughs.

But as the other game was still 0-0 it would mean that Wilderland would follow Eriador into the qualifier games and thence the feeling was more or less reservedly easy – like both teams played it for real but then again didn’t.

Erebor

There was no sign of the leasurely pace of the game played in Mirkwood deep inside the lonely mountain.

On 27th minute Narvi and Rumil played themselves sneakily inside the box past the Eagles but Thorin was there to greet the two and cut the last pass that would have let Narvi to score from in front of an empty net. The two dwarves nodded to each other courteously but there was no friendship there as this was a game of life and death.

From the next offence to the other end Nazgûl #7 got the ball on the corner of the box while pressed by Gwaihir. With a sneaky backwards-pass he managed to draw the great Eagle with him and away from the ball for the short monent for Smaug to sniff the situation: grasping the ball with his right wing while curving sharply to the left he managed to pass the Watcher. Meeting Caradhras Smaug crashed head on to the mountainside while dribbling the ball from his right wing to his left and giving it a hammer-like blow Chief Wolf had no chance of getting as he had no line of sight for it behind Caradhras.

The Lonely Mountain burst with cheers so loud it felt the whole place was indeed trembling. Erebor had taken a step forwards to qualify!

Mirkwood

After the new situation from Erebor was announced at the stadium of the Enchanted River in Mirkwood it got Wilderland to suddenly burst into a totally different fight. With Erebor leading the other game Wilderland was suddenly blocked from the qualification. The abrupt change of gear created problems for team Eriador and they seemed to struggle with accomodating themselves to the new pace set by their opponents. With the roar of the crowds of local Silvan elves, Noldor, ents, huorns, and dark creatures of every kind Eriador supporters found themselves outnumbered for good- and the balance of the game suddenly shifted.

For a while Wilderland managed to break the hedgehog-defences of Eriador with their fervour – and that was enough for them. After a few unsuccesful efforts Thranduil finally found Scatha parking in front of the Eriador goal with Gil-Galad sadly late from his duties and Asfaloth only beginning to gallop that way.

Even Elrond’s skills were no match against the Great Worm from close quarters – and the impressive tail-swing almost broke the net. It was 1-0 for Wilderland and they had a tight grip on the qualification again! It’s probably needless to say the crowds were just going crazy.

But after the goal Eriador kept their calm and concentrated firstly on avoiding any more setbacks from the now very self-confident opponent – and Wilderland was not able to capitulate their high and finally even they looked at the clock and shared the hope of retreating to the half time with these numbers and not ones worse than these.

Erebor

After Smaug’s goal the game had become even more rough as Misty Mts. was having none of losing and Erebor would not give in an inch of their precious lead… but with about ten minutes to go of the first half the news from Mirkwood kind of changed it all.

Wilderland was leading – and Eriador was not known of scoring a lot anyway – so was all their struggle in vain? Was Eriador giving in purposefully aiding some of their friends in Wilderland to qualify against all of us in the field here? That kind of things should not make a difference for professional players but it clearly did – and the last ten minutes the intensity of the game just collapsed even if no one kind of meant it to collapse. Somehow the energy was gone.



HALF TIME



Mirkwood

It was clear Wilderland was looking at the other game and came for the second half with a much easier pace playing through the defence first – so unlike you’d anticipate from them. But it was a wise tactics for by keeping their lead they’d win the game and secure their qualification whatever happened in the other game

Eriador was not going to attack like maniacs either but played it safe and sound like they tend to play. But with the slight passiveness of team Wilderland Eriador actually started to get a hold of the game a little by little. Eriador was not a team that would lose purposefully but they wouldn’t over-stretch their attack either without thinking of the defence first.

Erebor

Misty Mountains had gathered all their will-power during the half-time and came to the second half blazing with fire and brimstone. They were attacking again like madmen more or less totally ignoring their defence with only a goal in mind – and thence hopefully starting the fight for the qualification for new.

Erebor had anticipated an effort from the Misty Mts. but with Wilderland leading the other game they were not in their greatest spirits and thought the other team would be in the same mind-set – and were totally unready to answer to the total onsalught by their opponents. With the aid of their homecrowds they slowly started to pick up on their defence and to pull together but it was exactly then – at the worst possible time – that Misty Mts. equalised.

And in what a way it happened! Durin’s Bane forced himself to the goal and finally got a pass from Azog drawing all the defenders to him - but he passed the ball backwards after seeing there was a clear shot for Rumil who ran in and booted it with all his might leaving Beorn quite helpless with it. And so the Lórien elf silenced the whole Lonely Mountain – except the fans of Misty Mts. who were going crazy with the equalizer!

Wilderland was still going to qualify but if there would be a change in the game between Eriador and Wilderland, then Misty Mts. was back in the game again. They had no say in the other game, but they were doing their part – and many in the audience started to fear the home-team was not… now where was their effort to fight?

It is a rare thing dwarves or the darker creatures pray for the elves to score – but now everyone at th4e Arkenstone Arena was crossing their fingers for Eriador to come back to the game in Mirkwood.

Mirkwood

Meanwhile back in the jungle… well forest, Wilderland kept on defending their lead with Eriador slowly but firmly pressing the game to the Wilderland half of the field. But compared to the match played in Erebor the energy and the tempo of the game was probably not even half of that.

Erebor

At 64th minute Bolg gets a second yellow card and is immediately shown a red by the referee! The home team or their fans can’t just quite understand what happened. Thorin is close to gain a yellow card himself running after the referee and complaining wildly – happily for Thorin the referee didn’t see him going to Bolg and punching him straight in the face after being forced away from the referee by his team mates.

But the row had started… The dwarves were booing both to the referee and Bolg – and well to goblin-spectators as well. The goblins were naturally taking none of it but jumped on the dwarven supportets. In no time the fight spread all over the stands.

It was finallly suppressed by the Eagles, Smaug, Durin’s Bane and Caradhras – together with some of their kin from the audience picking up a policing duty. Only a few dwarves and goblins were foolish enough to try and continue rebelling facing that kind of “peace officers”. After th last rebel-rousers had been kicked off from Erebor the game was ready to continue – although in a quite a reserved mood.

Mirkwood

Eriador had the command of the game now but they were not raining offences towards Wilderland but rather building the attacks slowly controlling the game to their liking.

And sure it had been a question of time Eriador evened the game… and it was a neat combination as well.

Arador sent a cross from the left towards NogWight who was breaking in from between the ents – but seeing Isildur on the move diagonally behind him NogWight let the ball go through as he was in a too tight a position between the ents. As soon as the other defenders realised it they instinctively turned towards Isildur – which meant that also Radagast from the right took the lean towards the son of Elendil only to realize that Glorfindel had time to make that extra inch from behind him to reach the one-timer pass from Isildur’s boot – and to head it in!

All those in the audience appreciating football were thrilled with the smooth team effort and neat execution of the goal – but most booed to it as with that goal Wilderland’s chances of qualification were yet again a goal away, against a team that looked like it was superior on every front and annoyingly confident.

Erebor

With the news from Mirkwood The Arkenstone Arena just burst alive after few minutes of tension and nervous anticipation. The game was on again! But the homeside was one player short!

Oh, the anguish of the home-crowd! Now it was all up to their own team and they were shorthanded!

Despite their lack of a player Erebor started pressing heavily towards the Misty Mountains defences creating the most dangerous chances of scoring with Smaug booming a “winger” just over the crossbar and Bard forcing Chief Wolf into a parade save tipping it wide by an inch.

Mirkwood

Wilderland was in between the rock and the hard place. And they decided they’d try to break through. With the leadership of Scatha and Thranduil they forced their attacks on only to find themselves contained just half-way between the center and the box. Eriador was just too good in containing their passing lines.

With Isildur and Glorfindel mainly hanging around the center ready to take a run Wilderland was not able to rise all their players up – but with Arveleg, Arador and NogWight running around to intrude the one with the ball Wilderland found little time or space to build up anything either as Eriador’s defences held their lines admirably close preventing any clear lines for passing.

And so it ended. Eriador allowed Wilderland to take one point with them but the still qualified as team number one from group E – and that was enough for them. Wilderland’s fate would be up to the other game then – which was running late now because of the incident with Bolg’s red card.

Both the crowds and Wilderland players were keeping their breath after the ending whistle for any news from the other venue…

Erebor

83 minutes on the clock! Erebor is pressing on with the attack – Brand takes a shot! And it is headed out by Caradhras.

A corner. Bard gives a swerwing ball into the middle. William heads it upwards beating Nazgûl #7 for it. Orophin dives before Dain and kicks the ball forwards with a one-timer before the ball comes down humiliating the dwarf with shooting it from above the dwarve’s head.

For a moment everyone just watches the ball go high and towards the Erebor side of the field – and Beorn starts jogging towards the midfield to catch it as to play it back as soon as possible.

Suddenly there is this odd feelling of something being going on even if you didn’t quite know what was it. Meneldor and Landroval shrieked at the same time and took it to their wings rushing high up.

A shadow went past the arena and there was a hissing sound coming from nowhere only to sweep across the field before anyone could react but the two Eagles who were sudenly seen diving behind their leader playing on the opposite side.

Gwaihir was diving down with speed only a few spectators could follow beaking the ball in front of him as he dived (the AFA rules denied flying creatures to carry the ball while airborne) and after passing Beorn who was just emerging as a bear to reach farther Gwaihir winged the ball towards the goal some thirty meters from it. Narrowly escaping a clash Landroval shrieked and took off while Meneldor dived after the ball… he managed to hit the ball with the tip of his right wing diving towards it just in front of the goal – but it was not enough! It changed the trajectory of the ball but didn’t prevent it from going inside the goal.

Misty Mountains were leading! Just six minutes before the final whistle – and they had one player advantage… which they held into. And Misty Mountains qualified in front of the astonished home crowds.

The violent clashes between the dwarves and goblins after the game are a story of their own not touched upon here but it looks doubtful Erebor will be hosting any games in near future because of what happened.

But it was clear Bolg was not welcome to Erebor any more – and some even whispered he had made it on purpose and was thus not only a clumsy and violent freak but also a willing traitor who would be hunted down if ever seen near Erebor.

Be that as it may, Erebor was out.


Results:

Erebor 1-2 Misty Mts
on target 5-7
tot shots 14-14
GOALS:
*28, 1-0 Smaug (Nazgul#7)
*53, 1-1 Rumil (DBane)
*84, 1-2 Gwaihir (Orophin)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Erebor- Thorin, Bolg, Meneldor
*MMts- Watcher, William, Rumil, Azog
RED CARDS:
*Erebor- Bolg (64, second yellow)

Eriador 1-1 Wilderland
on target 3-4
tot shots 10-11
GOALS:
*34, 0-1 Scatha (Thranduil)
*70, 1-1 Glorfindel (Isildur)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Eriador- Araphant
*Wilder- Nazgul#3, Imin

Eriador		7	4-2
Misty Mts.	4	5-5
Wilderland	3	6-6
Erebor		1	4-6

Eriador advances as E1
Misty Mountains advances as E2

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

1945 Western Beleriand Time:
Good evening, and welcome to the first ever Tar-Eldar Network Television double minute-by-minute coverage.

1945:
We shall be covering the final Group B games in Gondolin: AC Beleriand vs Dwarves United at Tumladen Park, and Inter Beleriand vs Gondolin at the Stadium on the Rock.

1947:
Both stadiums are packed, and have been so for hours. As expected, the home supporters outnumber the Inter fans almost two-to-one at the Stadium on the Rock, and AC Bel fans own slightly more than half of Tumladen Park.

1948:
For fans who weren’t able to buy tickets, a giant screen has been set up just outside the old Ondolindë Stadium, displaying both games. Over a hundred thousand viewers of various sympathies have already set up camp before it.

1948:
What could happen in this group? Well, anything. The most unlikely scenario is AC Beleriand being eliminated, but it is still possible, if Dwarf U beat them by three or more goals and Inter win the other tie.

1950:
An Inter win would secure their advance, unless they win narrowly, Dwarf U win by two goals, and AC Bel score at least once to give them more total goals scored. They can get top seed if AC Bel lose by two or more goals, and they beat Gondolin by the same (or greater) difference.

1951:
Dwarf U’s advance is more fraught; they have to win, and hope Inter don’t win, unless they can win by two or more goals.

1951:
Any positive Dwarf U result would end Gondolin’s hopes. A Dwarf U loss and a Gondolin win would secure their advance.

1952:
With everyone expecting the Dwarves to be hammered by Fëanor and company, most eyes will be on the Stadium on the Rock. Tuor was right; there is still all to play for. But, of course, some have underestimated the Dwarves before, too, and it has led to grief for Wilderland and Anduin.

1954:
The projected formation sheets for both games:


[AC Beleriand in red and white; Dwarves United in black and white.]

~*~*~


[Gondolin in blue and white; Inter Beleriand in blue and yellow]

1955:
All four teams walk into the pitch and were welcomed by a deafening roar, sure to be heard outside the Encircling Mountains. Fëanor looks totally focused as he shakes hands with Aulë. Maeglin’s facial expression is unreadable as he shakes hands with Maedhros.

1957:
The stadiums are now rocking; chants, cheers, and drums reverberate within the walls. Blue and white banners flutter around the walls of the Stadium of the Rock.

1959:
It’s a minute before the opening whistle is blown. All four teams take up positions on their respective pitches.

1’ The opening whistle is blown.

3’ Tumladen Park
AC Beleriand seem to be breaking out their patient passing game in preparation for the knockout stage. They set up camp outside the Dwarf U penalty box, but they are in no hurry to breach its defences, probing for weaknesses with quick passes from wing to wing.

6’ Stadium on the Rock
Meanwhile, Gondolin have already created the first chance of the evening—Elemmakil beat Haleth and Baragund to the byline and sent in a cross, but Haldad and Gorlim bodied Tuor and Maeglin well, and Turgon claimed the cross easily.

10’ Stadium on the Rock
That was almost disastrous for Gondolin. Salgant dallied too much in possession, and Beren took the ball from him. He got as far as outside the penalty box before firing narrowly over.

16’ Stadium on the Rock
Goal Tuor! (1-0 Gondolin)
Maeglin managed to distance himself from Forweg’s dogged marking and played the ball to Tuor near the arc. With the Inter defenders and Turgon expecting Tuor to pass back to the Sharp Boot, he surprised everyone by turning on Haldad and smashing it home past a rooted Turgon.

17’ Stadium on the Rock
Inter might be regretting sitting deep and allowing Tuor a foothold close to the box. They’ve never played against a target man like him before.

25’ Tumladen Park
Yellow card Celebrimbor.
The other game is heating up. Aegnor created a bit of space between himself and Celebrimbor, and the crafts-Elf extended an arm to block his low cross for a breaking Eöl. Aegnor took the free kick, but Aulë managed to head it clear.

30’ Stadium on the Rock
Baragund came close to grabbing the equaliser for Inter! Beren played in Fingon, but Galdor managed to recover and come between him and the goal. Unnoticed by everyone, right-back Baragund advanced deep into Gondolin’s half and took Fingon’s backheel pass just outside the box. His dipping drive had Rog beat but sailed just wide.

31’ Tumladen Park
Gimli almost scores the opener for Dwarves United! Azaghâl intercepts an Eöl through ball and sends a long pass behind Imlach and Rochallor, who were just a few metres behind the halfway line. On comes Legolas to claim the pass, but Marach rushes out of his box to head the ball clear—towards the feet of Gimli! The Dwarf’s shot from near the halfway line sails just inches above the crossbar. A bullet dodged by AC Bel, and a missed opportunity for the Dwarves.

38’ Tumladen Park
Goal Balrog #4! (1-0 AC Beleriand)
The two AC Bel full-backs, who have never been on the scoresheet in 2013, created this goal. Fingolfin easily beat Telchar and sent a float cross into the Dwarf U box. With Eöl, Fëanor, and Angrod in the penalty area, Dwarf U’s defenders didn’t notice Balrog #4 dash in from the other wing to volley in Fingolfin’s cross past Galadriel.

39’ Stadium on the Rock
A cheer echoes around the stadium as they hear the news of the other game. As things stand, Gondolin would advance due to their head-to-head advantage over Inter (since they are tied on points, goal difference, and goals scored.)

41’ Stadium on the Rock
Yellow card Egalmoth.
Lúthien Tinúviel was too fleet-footed for the Leader of the Heavenly Arch. She easily dribbled past Egalmoth and was about to get to the byline when she was tackled from behind by the Gondolin right-back.

42’ Stadium on the Rock
Goal Maedhros! (1-1 Inter Beleriand)
Beren took the free kick. His dangerous inswinger had Rog and company focused on the near post action, but a simple cushioned header from Maedhros redirected the ball into the net off the far post.

45’ The halftime whistle is blown.
AC Beleriand were comfortable in their game—Dwarves United managed only 31% of possession and two shots in the first half. In the other game both teams were as patient in possession as they possibly could, considering their situation—Inter tried to run their attacks through Beren, while Maeglin was the creative hub of Gondolin. Neither team has played long balls to their target men yet, but with Inter abandoning their deep defensive line and challenging the midfield, expect both teams to try to bypass the increasingly crowded centre of the pitch.

46’ The second half begins.

47’ Stadium on the Rock
Yellow card Gorlim.
The Inter centre-back is penalised for a studs-up challenge on Maeglin. Tuor won a long ball from Salgant and knocked it down for Maeglin, who dribbled away from his marker Haldad. Gorlim slid in to try to stop Maeglin’s forward run, but the referee adjudged that his tackle was dangerous. Gondolin gained a promising free kick near the penalty arc.

48’ Stadium on the Rock
Maeglin failed to get sufficient dip on his free kick and the ball sailed harmlessly over Turgon’s goal.

51’ Tumladen Park
Look at Legolas go! Aulë cleared a Fingolfin cross, and the ball landed near Gimli, who played a perfect through pass for a sprinting Legolas. But with Rochallor quick to recover and Marach covering the angles, the Silvan Elf elected to make the ball bounce off the horse’s hoof and past the byline. Corner kick Dwarves United.

52’ Tumladen Park
Superb Aulë header, and impressive Marach save! Gamil Zirak took the corner and the Vala rose highest to thump the ball into the net, only to be denied soundly by Marach. Imlach was first to the clearance and booted it as far from the penalty area as he could.

58’
Both games have calmed down right around the hour mark. AC Beleriand patiently keep possession around Dwarf U’s penalty area, looking for that open lane or patch of space through which to deliver a fatal blow, and Dwarves defend grimly, knowing that they won’t see much of the ball and must make every chance count. Meanwhile, at the Stadium on the Rock, the game turned into a midfield slog of pressing, failed through balls, tackles, and errant passes. Rog and his defenders remain hopeless at sending an accurate long ball towards Tuor’s head, while Maedhros is well marked by Penlod, who challenged him to every header.

61’ Stadium on the Rock
Yellow card Forweg.
Maeglin is all over the pitch, helping in the midfield battle then dashing forward in possession. Forweg and Hunthor are unable to deal with Maeglin and Duilin’s pressing, playing errant passes and conceding possession too easily.

In one such sequence, Maeglin got between Hunthor’s pass to Forweg, and the latter tugged on the Sharp Boot’s arm as he attempted to dribble forward. The free kick was conceded from middle of the pitch and is of little consequence, but with Forweg less able to tackle with abandon for fear of a second booking, Gondolin will slowly gain advantage in the centre of the pitch

66’ Stadium on the Rock
Goal Maeglin! (2-1 Gondolin)
Duilin’s perfectly weighted pass, Maeglin’s exquisite volley, and Tuor’s intelligent dummy run—it seems that everything’s clicking in Gondolin’s offence. Duilin took on an increasingly timid Forweg, forcing Haldad to advance from the defence to stop him. Tuor then made a run towards the near post as if to receive a cross, dragging Gorlim away from the centre. Maeglin then had a clear path to make a run and volley in Duilin’s chipped ball over the defence, with Lúthien arriving too late to stop him.

70’ Stadium on the Rock
While the other game seems to have settled into a lull, Inter almost immediately replied to Maeglin’s goal. Beren dribbled almost the length of the field before Salgant closed him down. He fired a lateral pass to a charging Lúthien, who dribbled her way past Idril and cut inside just as Egalmoth stepped up to challenge her. With Maedhros and Fingon occupying the centre-backs, she found space to shoot a curler that Rog managed to bat away.

76’ Stadium on the Rock
Goal Fingon! (2-2 Inter Beleriand)
And we’re right down to the wire, folks! It was a standard Inter play executed at high speed. After dispossessing Idril, Beren and Lúthien passed their down the left wing, as if taking a stroll to Angband. Lúthien crossed for Maedhros, who managed to beat Penlod to the header. His knockdown connected perfectly with his best friend’s foot, and Fingon volleyed in a rocket past a frozen Rog.

77’ Stadium on the Rock
The Inter fans are taking over the stadium, making a lot of noise. The home supporters are nervous in their seats, snacking on their fingers. AC Bel still hold a lead over Dwarf U with little time left, so a goal scored by Gondolin could still turn their fortunes. Would it come in time?

78’ Tumladen Park
Yellow card Telchar.
A late challenge on Fingolfin three metres from the left corner of the Dwarf U box was deemed bookable by the referee. Telchar tried to help the Noldor High-King up and apologised gruffly for his dangerous tackle. Fingolfin patted the Nogrod smith in the back in reply.

79’ Tumladen Park
Goal Fëanor! (2-0 AC Beleriand)
It’s all over but the whistle for Dwarf U. Aegnor’s free kick hit the wall, but Fëanor had the alacrity to get to the rebound quickly as the wall scattered. With Galadriel unsighted, she was unable to get to his pinpoint strike and the lead now seems insurmountable for Aulë’s team with so little time left.

82’ Stadium on the Rock
Yellow card Penlod and penalty for Inter.
Is this the dagger for the home side? Beren’s drive from twenty-five metres ricocheted off Penlod’s knees and hit his arms. He then argued with the referee that he was trying to get his hands out of the way, but the referee would have none of it and pointed to the spot. If Inter scored here, Gondolin would need two goals to advance.

83’ Stadium on the Rock
Fingon took the penalty, but Rog guessed correctly and saved it! Fingon got to the rebound first but Rog managed to tip it away to Penlod, who sent a long ball forward.

84’ Tumladen Park
Goal Ulrad! (3-0 AC Beleriand)
AC Beleriand had enough time to add to their lead, with the outlaw taking Eöl’s backheeled pass after a solo run. Ulrad’s drive proved too fast for Galadriel to handle, and it’s all but certain that last year’s bronze medallists are advancing as first seed.

84’ Stadium on the Rock
Goal Tuor! (3-2 Gondolin)
Marvellous! Fantastic! It was footballing drama at its finest, as tears turn to jubilation before the home supporters! After Rog’s miraculous double save against Fingon, Idril took Penlod’s long clearance and dribbled the length of the pitch against a disorganised Inter defence. She crossed for her husband in the box, and Tuor rose to fire a thunderous header past his despairing father-in-law.

84’ Stadium on the Rock
The crowd goes wild! Tuor carried Idril in his arms and ran before the home supporters, who chanted their names in response.

86’ Stadium on the Rock
Inter pushed for an equaliser, but Gondolin was equal to them. Aranwë had got in the way of a Fingon long-range drive, and Penlod beat Maedhros to every header.

90’ The full time whistle is blown.
Gondolin advance! Inter are left behind once again by the closest of margins! Heartbreak for Fingon and Maedhros; joy and hope for Tuor, Idril, and Maeglin. What would Inter do in the long offseason ahead of them?

In the other game, it was a professional performance from the red-and-white squad, as Fëanor’s AC Beleriand stamp their domination on Group B. The Dwarves almost played spoiler to the home team’s hopes, but their losses against both Beleriand squads prevented them from repeating last year’s surprise.

Exit interviews shall be provided in The Matchday episode next week.

AC Beleriand 3-0 Dwarves United
GOALS:
38, 1-0 Balrog #4 (Fingolfin)
79, 2-0 Fëanor (Aegnor)
84, 3-0 Ulrad (Eöl)

Total Shots:
16-7
Shots On Target:
8-2

YELLOW CARDS:
1-2
ACB: Rochallor
DWU: Celebrimbor, Telchar

~*~*~

Inter Beleriand 2-3 Gondolin
GOALS:
16, 0-1 Tuor (Maeglin)
42, 1-1 Maedhros (Beren)
66, 1-2 Maeglin (Duilin)
76, 2-2 Fingon (Maedhros)
84, 2-3 Tuor (Idril)

Total Shots:
17-21
Shots On Target:
7-9

YELLOW CARDS:
2-2
INB: Gorlim, Forweg
GDN: Egalmoth, Penlod

--------------- W-D-L Pts GD
[1]AC Beleriand 3-0-0  9  +6
[2]Gondolin     1-0-2  3  -1
Inter Beleriand 1-0-2  3  -1
Dwarves United  1-0-2  3  -4

W-D-L: win-draw-loss
GD: goal difference
[1]: team secured first seed
[2]: team secured second seed

[Boromir88]

After the teams from Group D and G were eliminated the players returned to their homelands. There were no throngs, parades, or cheering crowds to greet them, just journalists and beat reporters asking the captains and personnel about next year:

GONDOR

The mood in Gondor was grim, but not depressing. I mean yes, FC Valinor was in their group, but still most Gondorians felt their team should have defeated Barad-Dur and qualified, especially since they were the host team of the group. They had not, and primarily it was their lack of goal-scoring this year. Eldacar, Anarion, and the rest just didn't deliver this year, as they had the last.

Anarion addressed the media: "We lost some money, but nothing that should bankrupt the owners or mean the team goes into a complete firesale mode. There probably won't be many changes, just some trimming here and there. If I have to accept less for my downturn in performance this year, then so be it. Hopefully we can target some annual travellers who would help us score some more goals. Gandalf, Isildur, or Eorl would be nice additions, but they might be content staying put and it would take a lot of money to lure them away. We can't overpay just to bring in one player."

ISENGARD"

As one of the lower salary teams, Isengard basically broke even despite their elimination. So there won't be any panic and Sauron (who is a co-owner with Saruman now) believes the talent on the team is good, they just need to strategize better and adjust game tactics. They were blown off the field by FC Valinor and that put Isengard in a large hole, that despite playing better in their other games, they just couldn't dig out of.

Saruman is already at work trying to use his Voice to win over potential free agents, but he refused to give any names at this time: "I called a couple former allies, and a couple enemies. And one or two of them may have been both at one time or another."

ANGFAUGLITH

This is a team that is likely in a lot of trouble. They've missed the playoffs 2 straight years and still have a high payroll. And the other investors are possibly planning what could be called a coup against the majority owner, Evil House (Morgoth).

The anger of the other investors (House Haleth, House Hador, Old Beor House in particular) began when apparently before the Angband-Angfauglith match Morgoth made a gentlemen's agreement to keep the game close and at most on a 1 goal differential. When Morgoth pushed for a 2nd goal after Gorgol's red card, it was seen as a broken promise. It should be noted, we don't put much stock in this story, because even if Morgoth had made that agreement, Angfauglith needs to know it was likely Morgoth hatching one of his tricks. But whatever the truth, it does mark the first noticeable divide between Evil House and the other owners.

A divide that has only been growing since Angfauglith's elimination, with the other owners now accusing Evil House of treating the team as an "Angband Junior" and not being aggressive enough in forming a stronger team. And we do see this as more credible, with Morgoth treating Angfauglith simply as a little-league team. After group play finished, one player from Angfauglith (who asked to remain anonymous) reported Morgoth approached and said: "Would you like to come up to the big leagues next year?" (aka play for Angband).

No one knows where Angfauglith is heading or planning next year, it is a volatile and growing more hostile situation every day.

IMLADRIS

Imladris' main problem was their low budget team was put in a tough group. They still didn't look particularly well against anyone, although Imladris is only down 4 million. With Arnor and Eriador already in the playoffs, Elrond's firm ownership over Imladris should still remain, just reinforcing the point that financially Imladris is fine.

Varda was gracious in talking to the media about next year: "Imladris is Elrond's house and so I would expect him to show the same careful hand and wise signings as he has for Arnor and Eriador. I know with how much the salary was reduced from 2012 to this year, it was asked if Imladris would just be a low-budget feeder team to make money that Lord Elrond would then spend on the deemed more important clubs. A large part of the payroll cut this year was simply losing some key highly priced players, like Elros, to other teams. We'll be adding talent for sure next year and start negotiating trades with our sister clubs, like Arnor and Eriador."

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Elenrod: Question: How many Inter Beleriand players does it take to change a light bulb? Answer: None; they’ll be doing fine for a while before they blow it at the last moment. Today: giving you more stomach acids than you can handle, Gondolin and Misty Mts leave it ‘til the 84th minute to secure qualification. Meanwhile, Glorfindel and Éomer play spoiler as their late goals slam the door on Wilderland and the Sea’s chances of advancing. All these stories, post-game interviews, goals of the week, and more in The Matchday. Today we’ll be discussing all the results of the third group stage round; unfortunately we won’t have time to talk about the last sixteen fixtures, but we’ll be saving them all for a special episode of The Matchday: Extra Time sometime later this week. With us today are the usual suspects: Tactics expert Maikalomion, fresh from a trip to Gondolin.

Maika: Hi. Yeah, I’ve just covered Group B for TENT. The food in the press box in the Stadium on the Rock was fantastic.

Adam: But I bet it’s nothing compared to what we had in Tol Eressëa.

Elenrod: And that was not an economist, Adam Smith, who went all the way to the eastern shores of Aman to cover Group F.

Felagundion: And I just watched all the games from here.

Elenrod: Of course, blogger Felagundion, that’s because you’re our captive pundit. And long will that continue.

Felagundion: Tsk. Don’t I have a filthy rich relative who’s about to kick the bucket and pass me some windfall?

Maika: Erm, we Elves don’t die.

Felagundion: Argh! The lot of you, the whole Eä, you’re all conspiring against me!

Elenrod: That must be similar to how Fingon and Maedhros feel, being dumped thrice in a row under very heart-breaking circumstances.

Felagundion: Ooh, well… not to that extent. Those poor lads.

Elenrod: So I guess we’ll go over Groups B and F first. Now, what happened at the Stadium on the Rock?

Maika: I don’t know why everyone’s forgotten about it—well, I guess it’s because he’s been eliminated in the round of sixteen twice in a row after winning the cup—but Maeglin is a proven match-winner. He’s someone who can go, ‘Sod it, I can’t lose this game,’ and just take over.

Felagundion: And Rog—good Eru, Rog—, he stepped up when it mattered.

Adam: Also, when I watched from my hotel room aboard Tol Eressëa, I saw Inter had no one who could challenge Tuor in the air. Gondolin had their Penlod the Tall to mark Maedhros the Tall, but Tuor won a lot of aerial balls—at least, those delivered decently, but even some of the poor ones. And his winner… that was like a slam dunk leap in basketball.

Elenrod: I liked the Gondolin supporters’ chant after that: ‘Silverfoot, Goldenhead, a match made in heaven.’

Maika: Someone screamed, ‘Tuor Deeney’ at him from near the press box. That was fun.

Felagundion: And before that, a few Gondolin supporters shouted, ‘Do a Doncaster!’ when Rog saved that penalty. It was loud enough that I heard it on TV.

Elenrod: What now for Inter? Do they break it up?

Adam: It would be tempting to say that. They were so close, again. And they lost to Gondolin, again. I think it’s more a mental thing than anything. For example, I think Beren should have taken that penalty—Fingon had too much baggage of being eliminated in the last game of the group stage to have full confidence in putting that penalty away.

Felagundion: Interesting that you mentioned Beren. He said that he and Lúthien would be coming back next year, because going out that way left a sour taste in his mouth. Maedhros then hinted that Lúthien might reinforce their weak midfield—certainly, Forweg and Hunthor were easily panicked by Maeglin and Duilin’s pressing.

Elenrod: What about Turgon’s comments to the press about missing his kingdom?

Maika: Someone asked Maedhros about it. ‘Would Turgon leave Inter?’ He said that he didn’t know what his half-cousin’s plans were, but he said that, ‘Whatever he decides to do, I’d wish him the best. Besides, with the people we have here, there will be no shortage of folks looking to come here and play together again.’

Elenrod: So I resounding ‘I don’t know’, then?

Maika: I read it as, ‘We’re ready either way.’ Which is good. This team will eventually figure it out. They’re too good to keep getting left out of the knockout rounds.

Elenrod: Right, then. On to the scenes at Tumladen Park. What do you make of it?

Felagundion: AC Bel proved that they’re one of the favourites to win the whole thing, plain and simple.

Maika: I like how their full-backs stormed forward for the opening goal. I was getting worried that they’d forgotten how to do that. Once they get to the knockout stages they’ll have to figure out how to throw the kitchen sink at teams who park the bus. I mean, compared to last year, when Bregolas was their sole holding midfielder, they now have a double pivot, so they have four players who can help stop those counterattacks that they were so vulnerable to last year.

Elenrod: Okay. So, what is the future for this Dwarves United squad? If that Gimli halfway line shot had gone in, would it have all ended differently for them?

Felagundion: No. I’d expect AC Bel would still attack them, and they’d still sit deep and play it long to Leggy, so the only thing that would’ve changed is the score line. 3-1 instead of 3-0.

Adam: I don’t agree. AC Bel’s opener came from their full-backs storming forward. Would they have done the same had they been a goal down?

Maika: I think they would have, but they would have done so later in the game, maybe around the hour mark if they still haven’t broken Dwarf U down by then.

Adam: That’s true… Fëanor’s that kind of tactician. By the way, I’m worried for the Dwarves’ finances. They made a profit last year and reinvested it into the squad, but now they’re in for huge losses. Factor in Erebor’s elimination, and we could see an offseason of tightened belts in the Dwarf U squad.

Felagundion: Not an economist, eh? But I agree. I wonder what would happen to Celebrimbor and Galadriel. I do hope we pick up Celebrimbor.

Maika: But it’s more likely that Galadriel’s leaving. Aulë hinted in the post-match presser that they’re planning to add a bit of size and speed to the very rear. Also, he said that they were unlucky to be in this year’s group of death, and they should probably be one of the sixteen best teams in the tourney. I don’t know about his second statement, but his first one’s spot on. Only goal difference separated them from Gondolin the second seed.

Elenrod: I guess that’s it for Group B. Now, Adam, what can you say about the last matchday of Group F?

Adam: As a neutral, it was a feast of great goals. But since we’re talking about our favourite goals later…

Maika: One of them was deflected, though.

Adam: Which one?

Maika: Éomer’s goal glanced off Ossë’s shin. If you watch the replay, you’ll see his sock flutter a little.

Adam: Was it? Oh, that explains it. I was thinking, ‘Unreal technique, giving a bicycle kick such spin.’ Well, that’s no good, then. He really is rubbish, as Denny said.

Felagundion: You should’ve seen the anguish of Tirion and the Sea fans after Finrod scored that unbelievable equaliser. ‘Did we blow it? Will the Sea score another goal?’ ‘Did we blow it? What if Tirion don’t get another goal?’

Adam: I thought you’re supposed to be under house arrest?

Felagundion: I have friends who are fans of other teams. They text me a lot.

Adam: Right. Anyway, the Sea’s lack of a prolific goalscorer got found out. All of their front four can put it into the net, but none of them is the brace or hat-trick type of striker.

Maika: Also, Minas Tirith were defensively solid, crowding out the Sea’s midfielders so they couldn’t get the ball forward easily. If only they’d done the same to Tirion…

Elenrod: Maybe they’d make Mardil a permanent captain of their squad; he seems to get his tactics right. What’s next for Minas Tirith?

Felagundion: Éomer’s gone; I don’t think he’d stay after the abuse he got from Denny. Also, Mardil said that he’d been looking at Armenelos’ games—in some ways they’re similar teams, possessing athletic players who have roughly the same level of talent (although, of course, the level of talent in Númenor is much higher than in Gondor.) That means they might try out a back three, too. I’m interested in that; Cirion looks like he’d be a good wing-back.

Elenrod: And the Sea? They’re one of the most expensive teams in the competition. This must hurt.

Adam: The Sea’s backers have deep pockets, so I don’t think they’d worry about the sunk costs so much as the failure to make a dent in their tournament position. Last year, at least they got out of the group and were eliminated by the eventual champions, but now they’re eliminated by what are, at best, quarterfinals-level teams.

Felagundion: I resent that. Nargothrond have a proper cup-winning squad. But anyway, the Sea lost by the narrowest of margins—goal difference, basically down to goals scored. Ulmo said in the press conference afterwards that he might add a free agent scorer, but that would mean reshuffling their line-up.

Maika: I hope Voronwë stays in his position; he’s one of the few complete midfielders in this year’s tournament—he can tackle, he can read the opposition’s attack and their defence, not to mention that he has the passing range to exploit the holes in defences he can see.

Elenrod: Right, now let’s swiftly go over the rest of the groups, starting with Group A. Thoughts?

Maika: I saw an interesting statistic about the Havens. In Group A, they were actually dominant in terms of total shots ratio, the percentage of total shots in a game taken by a team. The Haven’s TSR is 54%; Valimar’s is 50%, meaning they shoot once for every shot they allow. Armenelos’ opponents actually take more shots in a game than they do. So I think the problem with the Havens, why they can’t turn that shot dominance into game dominance, was finishing and goalkeeping.

Felagundion: Well, Amandil is atrocious, third-worst keeper this year. And Eärendil isn’t exactly a clinical finisher. Remember, when he was Eregion’s lone striker back in 2011, it was Glorfindel who was shouldering the scoring load from the midfield during the group stage, before he stepped up a little during their last few games.

Elenrod: On to Group C, then.

Adam: Children vs adults. What else can one say? Doriath and Shire-Bree performed better than expected, but Real still have that championship pep in their step, and Hithlum are serious about qualifying again after last year’s disaster.

Elenrod: And Group D?

Maika: Sauron proved that he is indeed the most talented non-FC Val player in that group, misdirecting a talented goalie like Huan in his equaliser. They ended up losing the match, but that goal was what put them over Gondor into the next round.

Felagundion: Also, Anarion did so little against Isengard. You’d have expected him to take charge and orchestrate their attacks, but nothing. Was last year a fluke?

Elenrod: We’re really going through this really quickly. Group E, then.

Adam: I think we’ll have to slow down for this one. This was an insane group. Eriador really slacked off, which was understandable, considering they’ve already won their group. But that was dangerous, considering that if they do that in the knockout stage, they’d be out.

Maika: I think that, more than the Witch-king, Eriador really miss Valandil. I thought Valandil was an understated cog in last year’s Eriador; he was an unfussy defensive midfielder, masterful at nipping counterattacks at the bud, but he also initiated their attacks with short quick passes to the attacking midfield trio in front of him. With him, Eriador had more surety, purpose, directness in possession, so that they could actually control the game instead of just being solid defensively.

Adam: I agree. We’ve talked about how scoring goals is more important in the group stage, and defending more important come the knockout rounds, but the favourites—the Valinors, AC Bel, this year’s TiG—, they control the game. They can score well and defend well because they can take the ball anytime they like. A complete holding midfielder can make an attacking team stronger defensively, and he can make a defensive team feel safer going forward—he completes a team. Last year’s Eriador can commit up to five players on the attack because the six players behind them are so comfortable dealing with any counterattack. Araphant and Arador just don’t give them that kind of confidence.

Felagundion: So basically Valandil is wasted at goal—he’s rubbish at Imladris. But the other game: What happened to Erebor’s defence? It’s like they dropped off a cliff. Beorn was terrible, and their defenders looked disorganised. Was Gwaihir that important?

Elenrod: It looked like it—his side won, after all.

Maika: And as I’ve been saying, Durin’s Bane, Narvi, Azog, and Rumil are a well-balanced strike team. You have power, pace, energy, and technique spread out among them. I won’t be surprised even if they score vs FC Val.

Elenrod: Oops, hold on, we’ll leave that for another time. Moving on to Group G… TiG pulled an Eriador? Decided to take an early holiday?

Adam: Something like that. Also, Angband are prone to those lapses of concentration that should have been ironed out this late in the tournament. A similar error against AC Bel would be the end of their run.

Felagundion: I’m somewhat sad for Anfauglith. They had that target man-quick man pairing that looked top-class, but their lack of midfield came back to bite them.

Maika: There should be a lot of cheap, underrated midfielders out there. For example, Bregolas is out of contract, and he did well for AC Bel last year. Teams should just be more persistent in finding those players.

Elenrod: Last group, Group H.

Felagundion: What is up with Sauron and his teams? He scores against the best team in his group, and Mordor draw with the best team in their group. I won’t be surprised if they turn out to have been using performance-enhancing rings.

Elenrod: I do need to tell you, Felagundion, that if you do get sued for slander, you’re on your own.

Adam: Isn’t anyone worried that Arnor only scored once against Rohan?

Maika: Well, the Witch-king and Araphor aren’t exactly whom you’d call volume scorers. And they were playing rather passively for the second half.

Elenrod: I suppose that’s it for our discussion of matchday three. Goal of the week time. Let’s start with you, Felagundion. I know exactly what you’d choose: Finrod’s equaliser vs Tirion.

Felagundion: Felagund will http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgqsaDnsEq8]pants you and your friends[/url] for the whole world to see. It was incredible how he made Irimë, Amrod, and Amras look like Sunday league players.

Elenrod: There were a lot of good goals in the other game, too. I’m sure a lot of people had to change pants after Vëantur’s through pass for Tar-Meneldur, but Tar-Minastir’s goal http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfgNj7wH2VA]from an impossible angle[/url] takes the cake for me.

Adam: Was Isildur’s flick-on for Glorfindel’s equaliser vs Wilderland a rabona? It seemed like he passed it from behind his legs. If it was, why doesn’t he always demonstrate that level of technique every game?

Maika: Adam already described Tuor’s winner vs Inter, but I also liked Gondolin’s second goal. The cohesion of their front line is just a joy to watch. But my favourite goal was Sauron’s one-on-one with Huan. I’ve already talked about it, but really, to have the audacity to face a two-time Arda Cup winning goalie like that, dummy him, then chip it over him… Like I said, I don’t think anyone expected them to win, but it was that goal that proved the difference in their qualification.

Elenrod: I guess that’s it for today. Don’t worry, viewers, we will be back sometime again this week for our round of sixteen preview. Thanks again to the Maika, to Adam, and to Felagundion. We might have a special guest for our Extra episode, so do tune in for that. We’ll see you again soon.

[Boromir88]

It's that time again for TTN's star performances in the 3rd round. Also, we have special stars for the best overall peformances during group play. Since the top single game performers can overlook strong, consistent performances over a span of multiple games, TTN will award special stars as we see fitting.

We will be explaining less the awarded stars in Round 3 (since what we're looking for should be clearer now) and instead explain the awarded special stars more.

Stars (Round 3)

ONE STAR

GK- Huor (Hithlum)
GK- Tulkas (Real Valinor)
GK- Manwe (Valimar)
GK- Orodreth (Nargothrond)
GK- Silent Watcher (Mordor)

DF- Morgoth (Angband)
DF- Fingolfin (AC Beleriand)
DF- Tilion (Real Valinor)
DF- Namo (Valimar)
DF- Caradhras (Misty Mts)

Here we'll just say Caradhras was given a star because of its stout efforts in holding a potent Erebor attack to 1 goal. Misty Mts defensive performance was key to it's surprise 2nd place finish in Group E. (Well a surprise to everyone except TTN who stated Erebor's temper would be their undoing. Although, we had said Thorin would be red-carded in the game, and it ended up being Bolg instead. Can't be 100% all the time.)

MF- Nessa (Real Valinor)
MF- Arassuil (Arnor)
MF- Elros (Armenelos)
MF- Argon (FC Valinor)
MF- Ulfast (Angband)

FW- Finrod (Nargothrond)
FW- Maeglin (Gondolin)
FW- Maedhros (Inter Beleriand)
FW- Sauron (Barad-Dur)
FW- Aredhel (Tirion)

Here we'll explain Sauron's goal and overall leadership in the match against FC Valinor is deserving of a star. It kept Barad-Dur in 2nd and eliminated Gondor. Aredhel's inclusion is more for the consistent performance. Her 3 goals in 3 games were arguably the biggest reason Tirion made it back to the playoffs this year.

TWO STAR

GK- Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)
GK- Arvedui (Arnor)

DF- Balrog #4 (AC Beleriand)
DF- Gwaihir (Misty Mts)

MF- Hador (Hithlum)
MF- Mahtan (Tirion)

FW- Arien (Valimar)
FW- Turin (Hithlum)

THREE STAR

And the best performance of Round 3 goes to...

Tuor, FW from Gondolin.

After deciding Tuor's game opening and then game-winning goal in the 84th minute was a notch above Arien's and Turin's 2 goals each it was a nearly endless debate between Tuor and Gwaihir. I mean there really was no arguable difference between the two. Yes, Tuor scored 2 goals, but that's also the job of the forwards. Gwaihir did it's job by leading the defense, but also a bit more by getting a late game-winning goal. And both games were must win to advance matches for their respective teams. We had to re-vote 4 times, as our Beleriand voters and Middle-earth voters kept creating a dead even split.

In the end, one representative from Middle-earth (who will remain anonymous of course) switched to Tuor.

-----

Now then the special stars. These are awarded based on the best and most consistent performances from the first 3 games in the tournament.

Best Forward - Scatha (Wilderland). The dragons 4 goals was tops amongst all other forwards. 3 stars.

Best Mid-fielder - Argon (FC Valinor). Several forwards had 3 goals and 1 assist, Argon was the only MF in the group. After Curufin stole the show in the Game 1, Argon really has been FC's best player over the full 3 games. 3 stars.

Best Defender - NilpWolf (TIG). Tied with Tilion and Ingwion with the most fantasy points (16). But TIG has allowed the fewest shots on goal, and only allowed 1 goal. NilpWolf is thus awarded 3 stars. And for arguably being one of the best defenses in group play the other TIG defenders (BoroWolf, GaladWight, Drauglin) are given 2 stars each.

Best Goalie(s) -

Tulkas for the best SV% (90%). 3 stars.

For the most saves (15) while still having a Sv% over 80%...Tar Atanamir is awarded 2 stars.

Not to degrade Arvedui's equal stats to Tar Atanamir, but we went with Tar Atanamir based on a tougher group and thus saving shots off Earendil, Bombadil, and Arien have more weight than...Grimbeorn, Shelob, and Helm.

Finally, the best overall defense - Real Valinor. Allowed only 1 goal in 3 games (same as TIG and FC Valinor). FC Valinor's defensive stats, while being impressive needs to be looked at in the light that they were going against 3 clearly inferior opponents. Real Valinor held Hithlum to just 1 goal and that is a remarkable feat. Then their two shutouts against Doriath and Shire-Bree, while those two teams are not offensive powerhouses...they are certainly no worse than Gondor and Isengard.

Tilion, Ingwion, Nahar, Nienna. 3 stars each.

TTN's Stars after Group Round

6

GK Tar Atanamir (Armenelos)
DF NilpWolf (TIG)
MF Argon (FC Valinor)

5

DF Tilion (Real Valinor)
DF Ingwion (Real Valinor)
FW Scatha (Wilderland)

4

GK Arvedui (Arnor)
GK Tulkas (Real Valinor)

3

DF Nienna (Real Valinor)
DF Nahar (Real Valinor)
MF Hador (Hithlum)
FW Sauron (Barad Dur)
FW Curufin (FC Valinor)
FW Tuor (Gondolin)
FW Turin (Hithlum)
FW Legolas (Dwarves Utd)

Then a whole bunch at 2 stars...

(Italics are eliminated players)

[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK: Octofinals Preview
-Boro88

A look back at the first 3 rounds. I was quite happy with using our "wins above replacement" stats to predict winners. 14 of 16 playoff teams correct, there were just some who ended up in reversed order. But we had identified the major underdog upsets (Misty Mountains, Gondolin) as well as the overpriced and over-rated (Erebor, Angfauglith).

Our two misses were Mordor and The Sea this year. I wouldn't even count Mordor as a miss though, because in a statistical anamoly they had more goals and a better differential than Arnor, but Arnor's magic bag of surprises got them through. Mordor was the better team, but Arnor ended with more points. Although, we had called Arnor to advance as well, and identified Anduin as the overpriced and overrated. They were not, so you could say we missed the mark there on Anduin. The other miss, The Sea, we thought defensively were strong enough to advance over Tirion. But we had said that Group F was the toughest 3-team battle for 2 spots in this year's tournament.

In those two cases WAR was off, but I'll take 14/16. And this is where it should really help us start determining winners. It's time for what TTN likes to call the "Octofinals". Where 16 teams, 8 matches, and no more ties remain. When the games get better, the opponents tougher, and there are no Rohan's or Barrow-Downs' left.



Arnor vs. Valimar- The low-budget veterans from Arnor do it again and find their team in the playoffs. Some might recall 2010 where the Norbury kings threw off the majestic Valar in thrilling overtime fashion. But they were a different team back then, and Valimar is a different team now too. After having a real motivation and complacency problem, Manwe has his Valarin mates playing very well. Arien is used to winning playoff games, and won't be content losing in the octofinals. Arnor is feeling good just being here and having a nice profitable year, they will play as the complacent team this time.
*Valimar wins 2-1

Angband vs. AC Beleriand- Wowzers, Angband and AC Beleriand...a match up from the earliest annals of this sport. A match that could be a semifinal, or even a finals battle. And then the winner goes out of the frying pan right into the fire next in having to play Valimar. This is where I hope WAR helps the most in predictions. Feanor has never been eliminated before the quarterfinals. And while I suppose there is a first time for everything, Morgoth and his baddies historically fall short. It's the playoffs, which means it's Feanor time and it's time for him to have a breakout game against the mightiest of enemies.
*AC Beleriand wins 3-2 (OT)

Tirion vs. Real Valinor-
If AC Beleriand and Angband is expected to be a bloodbath, this game should be a technical masterpiece on the pitch. Both teams of longtime family and friends should play respectfully, but it will not be boring by any means. There will be a lot of action, the defenses will be tested...in the end Real Valinor is better at playing Tirion's game, than Tirion is at being itself.
*Real Valinor wins 3-1

Misty Mts vs. FC Valinor-
Now the Misty Mts did a nice job beating out their Middle-earth rivals in both Wilderland and Erebor, but this is something entirely different. Frankly it's time for the Misty Mountains to go back home because we're seeing something similar to the FC Valinor - Isengard outcome. Misty Mountains is a better team than Isengard, so they won't give up 4 goals.
*FC Valinor wins 3-0

Barad-dur vs. Eriador-
Surprisingly this is one of the harder games to call. On the surface it looks like last year's semi-finalist should be able to confidently clear Barad-Dur. Their cool, professional style just wins games. Although they're playing with fire only beating Misty Mountains 2-1 and drawing with Wilderland. Barad-Dur gave FC Valinor a battle and their mastery of set pieces will get them the upset in this match.
*Barad-dur wins 2-1 (OT)

Hithlum vs. Nargothrond-
Another match that is just too too close to call. One of the offensive juggernauts will be eliminated here and now. Nargothrond makes a successful return to the playoffs after years of missing out, but WAR reveals their players are the "one and done" type. They usually lose the octofinals match, even when they do advance. Hithlum missed the playoffs last year too, but their roster is stacked with Arda class champions and they're also specialists at winning shootouts (which this game will be)
*Ties 3-3. Hithlum wins the shootout 4-3.

Gondolin vs. Tol-in-Gaurhoth-
Of all the teams you could say probably don't deserve to be here, it would be Gondolin. I don't mean to be harsh, but come on, they gave up 2 goals to Dwarves United and lost. TIG looks good, they played a bit complacent in the last match against Angfauglith, but they could afford to and conserve energy for this game. Gondolin's defense isn't good enough to contain a clicking (and balanced) TIG team.
*TIG wins 3-1

Anduin vs. Armenelos-
The royal Numenoreans don't look quite like their 2009 championship team, but they are resembling their 2008 semifinalist and 4th place finisher team. It is said the 2nd Age contained the greatest age of Men and they should be able to dispatch their 3rd age foes rather easily. Anduin looks good, but they were in the weakest of groups and their journey ends here.
*Armenelos wins 2-0

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Minas Tirith vs Tirion


[Projected formation. Minas Tirith in silver and black; Tirion in teal and yellow.]

Formation:

A fierce midfield clash seems to be in the works for these two sides. Minas Tirith have a natural numbers advantage in the centre of the pitch (3 vs 2), and Mardil has a tendency of tucking in to allow Cirion space to move forward, giving them a fourth player in that area. On the other hand, Mahtan also prefers to play more centrally, and either of Tirion’s forwards is comfortable dropping deep to close down the opposition’s deepest midfielder (Eärnil II, in this case.)

Tactics:

Whoever wins the midfield battle—a battle for possession—has a leg up over the other team. If Minas Tirith wins the possession battle, they could deny the ball to Tirion’s impressive attack and allow Cirion to move forward more often (with a possession advantage, Cirion would have less fear of a Tirion attack through his vacated part of the pitch.) They could then patiently probe Tirion’s solid defence and wait for a crack to show up.

If Tirion wins the possession battle, then the game would resemble Minas Tirith vs Nargothrond from the last round. Tirion could pen Minas Tirith in their own half and then bring their full attacking power into breaking them down. Considering the talent gap between the two teams, the greater onus is on Minas Tirith to control the centre of the pitch.

Prediction:

Minas Tirith’s midfield advantage might be enough to balance Tirion’s talent advantage, but, whereas Minas Tirith would have a tougher time breaking Tirion’s defence down, Finwë and Aredhel would need only a few chances to score against Minas Tirith’s defence. This won’t be the hammering that Minas Tirith-Nargothrond was, but the result for Minas Tirith would be the same.

Tirion 3-1 Minas Tirith
__________________

Nargothrond vs The Sea


[Projected formation. The Sea in white and blue; Nargothrond in green and yellow.]

Formation:

Nargothrond’s midfield advantage means nothing to the Sea. Ulmo’s team would sit back, absorb the pressure, and then move the ball quickly up the pitch upon gaining possession. Nargothrond’s task would then be to turn possession dominance into tangible results against a team far more defensively solid than Minas Tirith.

Tactics:

Glaurung has shown ability to dominate games from his position in the hole, but in this game he would need more help. Gwindor would not run circles around Salmar the same way he did against Cirion, and Tar-Ciryatan and Voronwë would give the dragon a little more trouble than Eärnil II and Tarondor had; Finduilas and Nienor need to show more attacking intent than they did against Minas Tirith.

The tip of the Sea’s offence is Tar-Minastir, a forward far better than Boromir I of Minas Tirith. Orodreth should be quicker to claim passes played behind their defence—he would get worse than a ball in the face if ever Tar-Minastir gets a decent touch in. Also, Barahir should be more careful with his forward runs—Tar-Meneldur, along with his son Tar-Aldarion, is frighteningly quick on the counter, rushing forward to support the lone forward.

Prediction:

This game is one of the underrated gems of the round. The Sea has an Arda-class defence, as shown by their clean sheet against FC Valinor, but Tirion managed to breach it. Nargothrond’s attack is about a notch better than Tirion’s, but their defence is a lot worse. However, they managed to keep an impressive clean sheet against Minas Tirith through their high pressing and control of possession. If they hope to make serious noise in the cup after two years of disappointment, this is where they should start. On the other hand, a clean sheet against one of the premier offences of the tourney would be another feather on Ulmo’s cap. With that said, it is likely both teams will score, but not by much.

Nargothrond 1-1 The Sea

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Group A

The Havens 2-1 The Barrow-Downs

It must be terrifying for Olwë and company to be a good Bombadil game away from being eliminated. But they have to win, and they have to keep something in the tank for their game against Valimar.

Armenelos 1-1 Valimar

Unless Arien gets her chances and makes them, this game has the makings of a draw. Valimar’s defence could blunt Armenelos’s on-form offence, while the Westron defence would be enough to contain any Valimar attacker short of a dominant Arien.

Group C

Hithlum 3-1 SB United

While one could argue that SBU’s offence can give Hithlum’s defence problems, no one would argue that SBU’s defence would be in for a proper shellacking.

Doriath 0-3 Real Valinor

A game even more one-sided than the other fixture in this group.

Group D

Barad-dûr 2-0 Isengard

A Sauron-led team finally has a proper defence. This doesn’t bode well for Saruman’s squad.

Gondor 1-3 FC Valinor

Provided the Black Tower doesn’t spring an upset in the last round, the second spot of this group would go to whomever outscores Isengard—and whoever gets hammered by FC Valinor less.

Group E

Misty Mts 2-3 Wilderland

Misty Mts offence looks stronger than expected (with a goal against Elrond), while Wilderland’s defence looks as brittle as ever. This has the makings of another high-scoring affair.

Erebor 1-1 Eriador

Eriador’s defence won’t be as porous as Wilderland, but their offence doesn’t pack the same punch as Wilderland’s, either.

Group G

Imladris 0-3 Tol-in-Gaurhoth

Much has been made of Varda in Imladris’s back line. She is just one defender, whereas TiG has three quality attackers who can overpower or outmanoeuvre defences.

Angband 1-1 Anfauglith

A tough game to predict. One came off a bad loss, while one managed a narrow win. Still, it’s difficult to imagine Angband losing twice in a row. But it’s also difficult to see how they can score more than one against Anfauglith without opening themselves up to counterattacks.

Group H

Arnor 2-1 Mordor

Rohan was a favourable match-up for Mordor (Minas Morgul also beat Dunharrow in the 2011 Arda Cup), but the Men of the North won’t be similarly intimidated—especially since the Witch-king leads their line.

Anduin 2-0 Rohan

Anduin finally lives up to the quality shown by their price tag, defeating a decent Arnor squad featuring last year’s finalists Witch-king, Malbeth, and Arassuil. Surely they could also dominate against last year’s quarterfinalists who have lost much of their quality.