Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Dun:
Here is an interesting sentence: And all must remember to use them in this case. Let us hope all come to their senses.

This in response to Cop saying: I am sure we have various spells and potions available to turn us invisible. Of course, we must bear in mind that the traitors in our midst have these means available to them as well...

So is Inzil hinting to his fellows that someone needs to get out of bed? Could perhaps be that there is a player he fears may not be around when they should be!

Actually, like I said earlier, I had observed a player visible while looking at the thread, and I was trying to discreetly tell them to remedy that.

[Boromir88]

Actually regarding the "Rule of 3" it's about as good of a place to start on Day 1 as anything else. There are obviously flaws with it, but it's better than a randomized "I'm saying one of the first three alphabetically listed is a sorcerer." That is a truly random grouping. Where saying one of the first three posters might be a sorcerer assumes an anxious "I want to get things started and appearing active" sorcerer in the bunch.

As far as with what there is on most Day 1s, it's a good starting point for seeing how first posters react to a "rule of three" suspicion.

Oh hi, I'm here.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

Lottie:
Refusal to make a statement alert!

Oh, honey, I never commit to solid statements! I'm a philosophy major.

Seriously, though, this post just made me rather uneasy about her. A lot of the reasoning seems forced, almost like she's trying to suspect people even though she knows they can't be sorcerers. It could just be Day-1 lack of proper suspicions and trying to get traction, but it doesn't sit well with me.

EDIT: xed since Cop's #57...whoops

[A Little Green]

A quick list!

Shasta - Need to see more of him!
Kath - Witch or no, I feel fairly good about Kath. She has shrewd points and I think she seems more cautious when she's a wolf.
Dun - Not as bad vibes as usual!
Nerwen - Not sure what to think about her guessing at four wolves, but I don't agree with Kath that her list of three connects to this in any way.
Cop - Seems relatively fishy (see my previous post) but she also gives innocentish vibes so I don't know.
McCobbler - Who?
Lottie - Half innocentish, half under the radar.
Holbytlass - What?
Echo - WHAT?
Boro - Hello!
Legate - Enough said. (Although - suspecting me for excessive use of rolleyes? Honestly?)
Lommy - Like what I see this far.
Steve - Hello Steve!


EDIT: x-ed with Copper

[Thinlómien]

Coppermirror??!! Kind of wish I hadn't voted yet now, because that last post (#75) was positively weird. Your own tone seems forced to you too, huh? That's apologetic if I've ever seen anything apologetic in my life.

Also, Greenie's list just cracked me up.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Cop

Well, yes. I wasn't using contractions and was trying to stay mostly in-character despite the lack of opening narration. My tone looks a bit forced to me there too.

Originally Posted by Cop

I was being pedantic. Someone says I'm a wolf 2/3 of the time, in jest, and I am compelled to correct them and give them the actual amount, also in jest but also as a pedant, despite being aware it might look a bit off. It's not as if previous stats are relevant to this game anyway, assuming roles were assigned at random.

Your points are reasonable ones that I might have made myself, but I'm at a loss for whether that does anything to make you look better or worse, since evil folks can be perfectly reasonable. No, on second thoughts it makes you look better.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Coppermirror??!! Kind of wish I hadn't voted yet now, because that last post (#75) was positively weird. Your own tone seems forced to you too, huh? That's apologetic if I've ever seen anything apologetic in my life.

Agreeing with Lommy here - what? While I appreciate it that someone doesn't react over-defensively when suspected, this is a bit too nice already. And, you know, it almost works, because I feel bad voting you now since you take it so constructively and act so nicely. Honestly though, that's too much.

++ Coppermirror


EDIT: x-ed with Leggity-leggings

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Well, yes. I wasn't using contractions and was trying to stay mostly in-character despite the lack of opening narration. My tone looks a bit forced to me there too.

Great. Now this makes me want to reevaluate on Cop, because what kind of Wolf would post something like that? Well, possibly a frustrated Wolf who suddenly realised she wants to appear innocent. But seriously speaking, I can see this being an innocent's realisation that her earlier posts seem forced.

Well, now that forces me to think still about other options of vote besides Cop... but I am not sure. One other option would be Echo just because of the vote out of the blue, or Holby for similarly awkward reasoning, but I think they could both get a newbie, resp. long-time-no-see-player pass... but I don't know. Okay, vote coming in a minute. I have to decide.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

P.S. And I wanted to say already two posts ago, and keep forgetting that, that Greenie's later posts make me think she is acting quite innocentish in the end.

Bah, and okay, I am not now 100% sure about it, but it is still probably my biggest suspect:

++Coppermirror

That's all folks.

EDIT: xed since my last. But good Night.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Agreeing with Lommy here - what? While I appreciate it that someone doesn't react over-defensively when suspected, this is a bit too nice already. And, you know, it almost works, because I feel bad voting you now since you take it so constructively and act so nicely. Honestly though, that's too much.

++ Coppermirror

*eyebrow raise*

I was taking it well because I could see how you got that impression and I thought I could have reached that conclusion myself. Earlier on, you'll see that I didn't take Legate's suspicion so well, because I think his reasoning has serious flaws.

Now I have to work out whether you were an innocent jumping on a small thing over-excitedly, or a sorcerer looking for an opening. Lommy thought it was bad too, and Legate is certainly on the warpath.

Edit: Or maybe not! I'm confused now. Crossed since Legate's last.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

*eyebrow raise*

I was taking it well because I could see how you got that impression and I thought I could have reached that conclusion myself. Earlier on, you'll see that I didn't take Legate's suspicion so well, because I think his reasoning has serious flaws.

Now I have to work out whether you were an innocent jumping on a small thing over-excitedly, or a sorcerer looking for an opening. Lommy thought it was bad too, and Legate is certainly on the warpath.

Edit: Or maybe not! I'm confused now. Crossed since Legate's last.

I think your reaction here is wonderfully innocent, and I'm pretty okay with your first Controversial Post. At this point, I'm fairly certain you won't kill me in my sleep.

Legate's reaction to the Cop Controversy is also interesting - he doesn't jump on it as further reasoning to vote you, which could speak well for his non-sorcererarity, but he's experienced and might be wary of jumping on a bandwagon - though if that's the case, he wound up voting for you anyway, so I'm leaning innocentish on him.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Coppermirror??!! Kind of wish I hadn't voted yet now, because that last post (#75) was positively weird. Your own tone seems forced to you too, huh? That's apologetic if I've ever seen anything apologetic in my life.

Hmm? If I think that someone is right about their impression of a post (that is, that the tone sounds a bit forced) then I don't see why I shouldn't say so. If I can see how someone reached their conclusion, that's useful for me when evaluating whether their thought process was innocent or evil. In this case, I thought that Greenie was more likely to be innocent after that.

Edit: crossed since Lommy at #78.

[Inziladun]

You lot sure don't make it easy on Day 1, do you?

I'm back and forth trying to decide whether I think Kath or Legate seems dodgy, then there's Lottie, who seems to be looking for a reason to suspect Kath. It mainly looks odd in light of Echo's very strange vote, though.

x/d with Legate

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Argh. Something's come up and I'm not going to be able to spend the time I'd like reading what's happened today.

Moddess Sally, I abstain from voting today.

[Inziladun]

I can't bring myself to vote for Echo or Holby, due to first-time and long-time away considerations. Both have been downright bizarre up to this point, though.

x/d with Shasta

[Coppermirror]

Vote tally so far

Kath -> Nerwen
Echo-> Kath
Lommy -> Legate
Greenie -> Coppermirror
Legate -> Coppermirror (2)

Yet to vote:
Boro
Steve
Lottie
Inzil
McCaber
Nerwen
Holby
Coppermirror

Not voting: Shasta

I'm not sure who to vote for yet. Legate said some things earlier that really didn't make sense to me at all, but the question is whether the intent was innocent or evil. The fact he's leaving straight away after voting doesn't give me a good feeling.

Echo's vote looks pretty bad, but I don't think anyone will vote for them, as a first time player on their first day.

Holby's behaviour has been odd, but I know so little about them that I don't think I can place a vote.

I'm unsure about Nerwen, but I can't say it's enough to follow Kath's vote. She really hasn't done much.

There's about 50 minutes to go now, right? If I have to make a quick vote, I'll vote for Legate, but I'd like to spend a little time looking over toDay's posts again before making a firm decision.

Edit: crossed since Lottie's last.

[Boromir88]

++Kath

Sorry love, as gleeful as it is to have you remember to participate in Day 1, and as much as it means I want to continue having you around as someone to bounce ideas off of...it's feeling not meant to be this time around. There's something off with you today.

Particularly post #54 where I think your points on Inzil and Lottie are off. I don't get the connection you're trying to make about Inzil reminding everyone to go invisible. And Lottie I don't think was making a non-commital statement, but more or less saying she thinks more than likely the Day 1 arguments between 2 people are innocent-on-innocent.

...and a bit of Echo said she was a witch...which made me want to ask "Did she turn you into a newt? And you got better?" But it's worth a go considering what I think we've had so far today.

[Eönwë]

This end-of-Day silence is quite disconcerting.

edit: x-posted, obviously

[Coppermirror]

Boro does have a point about Kath's #54, now that he points it out, but I didn't notice anything particularly suspicious in her other posts.

I can't wait to vote any longer than this, so I've got to go with the person I've got the most suspicion for based on their actions.

++Legate

Vote tally so far

Kath -> Nerwen
Echo-> Kath
Lommy -> Legate
Greenie -> Coppermirror
Legate -> Coppermirror (2)
Inzil -> Lottie
Boro -> Kath (2)
Coppermirror -> Legate (2)

Yet to vote:
Steve
Lottie
McCaber
Nerwen
Holby

Not voting: Shasta

[Loslote]

So we have a triple tie between Cop, Kath, and Legate, with no clarifying rules on tie-breakers? Well then.

++Kath

I find her far more suspicious than either Cop or Legate.

EDIT: xed with two of Steve's

[Coppermirror]

Vote tally so far

Kath -> Nerwen
Echo-> Kath
Lommy -> Legate
Greenie -> Coppermirror
Legate -> Coppermirror (2)
Inzil -> Lottie
Boro -> Kath (2)
Coppermirror -> Legate (2)
Lottie -> Kath (3)
Holby -> Legate (3)

Yet to vote:
Steve
McCaber
Nerwen

Not voting: Shasta

[Loslote]

That clears that right up.

[satansaloser2005]

Inziladun has passed on. He was an ordinary wizard.

[Echo]

Are we aloud to post now?
if we are i would like to say, may Inzil rest in shredded pieces.
hmmm i was mildly suspicious about him, but no matter now.




the reason i whatch my back at night
holby~ its not just me noticing her weird QUIET behavior but youd know better than me, im just a new nobody
cop~ hes either really good or really bad,...but im still havent desided which. (hopfully good)


mildly suspicious of
green~ill have to pick a better reason than the one ive got,...you dont sit right with me though.
AND everyone else.
[U]other[U]
Boro~ what can i say other than hes nice and welcomed me, i have no reason to suspect him........yet.



well ponder my list. think of me evil or think of me not,..i dont care.
but youll think of me the way you think when you think it. but if i die today or tonight you will get no further.

[Coppermirror]

A pity about Legate. I can see how that happened now and I really should have known better. At least the voting yesterDay was interesting and had multiple tiebreakers. Plus, the game started with a Day phase, so there's no way the sorcerers had plans in place in advance.

And man, Inzil's killed the time he's finally innocent? We're clearly dealing with very sadistic sorcerers here. Anyway, why might Inzil have been killed? The only things which come to mind are that nobody really suspected him this time, or that they might have thought he was the Seer. Or it could be to lay a false trail to Lottie, I suppose.

I'll settle down to do an analysis of each person who posted yesterDay. This may take me a while, especially if I'm looking at past games to check on things about some people's behaviour.

Three people didn't vote yesterDay: Nerwen, Shasta, and McCaber (the latter of whom didn't show up at all as far as I can see, so I hope he knows the game is on). This is pretty bad. There are also some people who showed up relatively late and didn't get much of a chance to talk. It would be great if those people would speak up as early as possible toDay.

Originally Posted by Echo

Are we aloud to post now?

I think so. The Day always starts when the moddess announces who was killed during the Night. Sally's just really busy at the moment.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Until further notice, everyone but me carries a presumption of guilt. Confessions will be entertained.

Maybe this could have been seen as a Seer hint? For the most part, though, Zil was fairly non-committal. He certainly didn't jump in guns blazing saying "x is evil", so I think he was probably a no-trace kill.

[Echo]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

do an analysis of each person. I'm looking at past games to check on things about some people's behaviour.

as am i cop,
hobbits dont live in dirty,nasty, wet holes filled with the ends of worms,...but do holbyts?...........

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Short (emphasis on "short"! In the terms of Legate of Amon Lanc's notion of normal length of posts, of course. Look, two sentences! Three.)

Very innocent:
Kath - also very helpful. Almost suspiciously so, but I mean, that isn't a good reason for suspicion, right? Let's see what she does in the future.

Nothing particularly suspicious:
Lommy - looks like normal Lommy to me
Nerwen - looks like normal Nerwen to me

Uncertain:
Inzil - he doesn't do anything suspicious, but just does not give the "at easy" feel I might have with some others

Fishy, with weird explanation about their votes:
Holby
Echo - gets a newbie pass for Day 1, though.

Something fishy about:
Coppermirror - like I said, the sort of wannabe-banter posting in the beginning and somewhat touchy response make her flash with warning lights in my eyes (and theoretically also her later posts could contain balanced suspicions cast on other people, the sort of "hit and run" or inconclusive suspicions might benefit a Wolf). In any case at least worth watching, possible vote-candidate for me.
Lottie - a bit suspicious because of her possible "avoidance of the heat", but there is not so much to judge her based on just that
Greenie - her sort of balanced walking among posts and the excessive use of rolleyes in the start seemed really awkward to me, but the thing is more like a gut-feeling than an actual suspicion, so probably not having any merit as of now (I'll see if she has posted anything meanwhile)

No idea about:
Steve
Boro
Shasta
McCaber

EDIT: x-ed with about a million people since Cop's list

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Well then.

++ NERWEN

Reasoning reminder: Says we are likely to have four bad guys, then only lists three 'suspects'. Yes, yes I know it is all under this 'rule of three' silliness but hey, perhaps she knew full well there would only be three but hoped, as someone else mentioned, that seeming unsure of the number of wolves would suggest she was innocent.

Okay, that's actually a point to consider. Although personally I am not sure if I'd use it as sole reasoning (too random), but I'd like to actually hear if Nerwen has anything to respond to that.

Originally Posted by Echo

to be clear....lynch the witch ++KATH......or wolf in this matter of business.

Well, any more reasoning, or do you know more than we do? If you do, then at this rate you might just as well say so.

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate ~ well I would like to see his reply to what I mentioned in the other post.

I didn't realise there was a question. But, to clarify then,

Originally Posted by Kath

I did check to make sure that in the intervening crossfire he had actually answered Cop's original question about what 'message' he had seen.

Nothing struck me weird on Lottie, if so, then rather about Cop. The flip-floppy chitter-chatter, especially if any of the other ones is also a Wolf (namely, Zil), because it doesn't sound like totally useless banter, but sounds like it might have a purpose (to seem like it's banter, while talking about Wolves, or even if there were two of them, then to seem like banter while talking about packmates).
Lommy. <-- The statement in question. Bolding mine because this is his answer to Cop asking 'what message?'.

Nope, I said nothing about wolf-to-wolf messages.

Which I would say is not entirely true, given the bit in bold.

It isn't wolf-to-wolf, it's wolf-about-wolf. Cop talked about what I said first of all like I was talking about messages from one wolf to another. While I was talking about Wolves who want to speak (or have to speak) about other, and are doing it in the way so that it does not look like they are excessively defending them, but also not that they are bringing too much attention to them.

Probably again x-posted with some... but going to vote soon.