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#1 | ||
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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Secondly, TO start from the end and work backward to answer Kitanna If there are two bots we have a smidge of leeway on wrong lynches so if we think there are two but there's three we could be a tad careless. Shasta's vote put me in the lead I didn't put much into it but now I'm rereading the post he says BG is most suspicious and decides to vote me... Hmmm...
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,517
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9 living players total. 3 gifteds, 1 cobbler. 5 ordos + wolves. Assuming worst case scenario: 3 wolves, no wolf lynches, no Ranger saves D2 - 8 total; 3 wolves, 5 innocents N3 - 7 players total; 3 wolves, 4 innocents D3 - 6 players; 3 wolves, 3 innocents. Wolves win. We only have 2 Days to change the scales. Yes, you can say that maybe there'll be a save, and we'll get a wolf, and maybe there are less wolves, but the thing is, if there isn't there won't be any miracle either. As I've said back in the beginning of D1, I'll join in on the hoping, but don't rely on it. So where was I going with this? Ah. The cobbler. In general, I agree 100% that a cobbler must go too. But the cobbler also counts as an innocent in the tally. We don't have much room for wiggling, so if I see someone with wolvish behaviour I'd go for that one instead of a cobbler. O spectral voice! Ere you are gone into the realm of mysteries.... erm, Rune too. Quote:
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Is that true, considering that just yesterDay I revealed as a wolf the exact same way? Are you going to believe me? The answer, by the way, is supposed to be: NO, even regardless of what I said yesterDay. Incidentally, I am also the Ranger, Cobbler, and Ordo. All at once. Maybe a bit of Hunter as well. Don't be surprised. For the second time, BG, don't talk aloud of your gifted suspicions. Even if they prove incorrect, they still nudge the wolves towards finding one or more of them. Go one exploring potential hints, but keep your thoughts silent. Quote:
![]() My thoughts exactly.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#3 | |||
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Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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I'm sorry. I'm gonna go sit in the naughty corner now...Quote:
/sarcasm/
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#4 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Lottie and Sally are both bothering me, but I can't put my finger on why. They both seem to be jumping rather hard on BG - not to say that I don't agree with them, because I do, but... I don't know. It's just strange. Perhaps I'll be able to tell why tomorrow. I do think, combined with yesterday, that it's enough to vote Sally, however.
++Sally
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#5 | ||||
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I realise I am pretty much in the dark about people like Sally, Shasta, Lottie and Boro. BG now had this awful incident... Morsul is strange (indeed again saying "I know something you don't but I can't tell you", is not much help). As for others... G55 I am still wary about, Kitanna makes lot of sense though of course we still need to catch us a Bot to see whether her posts are not intentionally leading us away from her packmate(s) or somesuch... So who gets my vote... and since DL is approaching and I bet I also x-posted with someone, I bet I'll be simply left to vote for the most suspicious of those who get votes; which I am not so happy with given how it ended up last time... But let's see...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#6 | ||||
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,517
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I don't like how sally is behaving in respect to BG and to Morsul. Others take that viewpoint too, but they do it more genuinely and more from themselves. Sally seems to be buddying up with existing suspicions and feelings, not really sticking her head out, looking for easy targets. She might very well be my vote today, even though she seems to have a vote pile of her own. I could also be convinced of voting Boro or Legate, but not to the same extent. And I want to hear them talk more. Hopefully Boro will make it this morning. EDIT: xed with Morsul
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#7 | |
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Laconic Loreman
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Here and caught up.
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Fenris Penguin
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#8 |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,517
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Well, maybe I just am.
Unfortunately, I have no wolves to offer you. What I can give you is names of people not to lynch. However, I really want to see the interactions before I give them away. On the other hand, I'll only be home at 10pm GMT-5, and I don't want people to vote before I do that. I am debating between revealing them now and revealing them then. If you have suggestions, I'm still here for about 10 minutes before I leave.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#9 |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,517
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Ok I checked the voting times for the past two Days, and I think the majority votes after the time I get home. Names to be revealed later.
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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#10 | |
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Laconic Loreman
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But I'm also getting this feeling you're what I've suspected all along, and that is the traitor hacker who now notices the good time to sacrifice yourself and try to draw out the real seer while you're at it. If this is the case, than I'm going to be kicking myself for not being around more often to make sure you were lynched as soon as possible. And for trying to convince myself "Oh come on Boro, you've been the seer and acted like the cobbler before, it's actually very good cover for a seer. Hold off and don't blow her cover."
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Fenris Penguin
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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I don't think G55 is a bot attempting a false reveal, but like I said I'm taking this with a grain of salt. I'm at work so I can't really do much by way of picking apart posts from days past until I get home. But I'm going to try to keep up and comment on the posts that come in today.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#12 | |
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Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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Morsul, I am a girl. Sorry for not voting last night, I fell asleep while reading... Here and rereading everything now. Tell me it's not a coincidence that I've been redirected to the Adult Friend Finder website today? |
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#13 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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SO um... What happened with Sally? yesterday I know she was a bit odd... But not lynch odd.
Also the nightkill makes me pretty much sure that my theory from yesterday was wrong. So Shasta is back on my nice list.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#14 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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So we have
a hacker a seer a hunter two(or three) bots and two(or one) Ordo... Well isn't this dandy... ![]() Innocent- Shasta Morsul Trust G55 hacker-BG(I think) rest of everyone is in the I dunno category. SO let's at the votes: 5 people voted for Sally. those 5 people are still alive I voted Shasta on the theory I have zero faith in now and BG didn't vote so well that was helpful. Boro and Legate pushed her over the edge though being the last two on the wagon sooo they look the worst. Not by much though... Now basically we all have to agree on the next lynch and hope it's right because we're getting to that scary part of the game where bots bandwagonning is easy.
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#15 |
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Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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Current Living:
Galadriel55 Legate Kitanna Boromir88 Blind Guardian Morsul the Dark Shasta Current Dead: Coppermirror, Lommy– seized by Adult Friend Finder. Nerwen, Aganzir– poisoned by webcrawlers. Rune– lashed to death with overseer-bot’s light whip. (Ordinary cyber-slave.) Inziladun– ICE pick to the head. (Ordinary cyber-slave.) Sally– pushed down a data-mineshaft. (R.A.N.G.E.R.) Lottie– rubbed out. (ordinary cyber-slave) Day One votes (italics = dead): Morsul —> Rune Inziladun —> Boro (Because of possible Hacker hint) Loslote —> Blind Guardian (Because I wasn't there) Kitanna —> Morsul (Because of a gut feeling) Sally —> Blind Guardian (2) (Again, because I wasn't there) Blind Guardian —> Rune (2) (Self-preservation, mainly [how many times have I died on Day One now?], and at the time he seemed to be the best bet.) Rune —> Morsul (2) Shasta --> Morsul (3) (Something that was radar pinging?) G55 --> Rune (3) (Wanted to vote Sally) Legate --> Rune (4) (I didn't see a reason, except that Rune was with her at the time? I gotta say this was a bandwagon vote.) RESULT: Rune lynched - Ordo Day Two: Okay I have to go right now so I will finish this in another post later. |
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#16 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
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similar to yesterday now that you mention it... or Day two however you want to say it...
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Morsul the Resurrected |
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#17 | ||||||
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Let me just count it - we have seven people in total. One Seer, one Hunter, one Hacker, and two or three Wolves. That leaves one or two Ordos. Personally, I'd be more inclined to believe in one ordo and two Wolves, since three would be really deadly. But let's see... Worst case scenario: G55 is a Hacker and there are 3 Wolves, they vote together and win. Ergo, I would have expected to happen it already if it was that way, even though given the "liveliness" of this village, as nobody seems to be posting much... Another bad case scenario: there are two Wolves only and G55 is a Hacker. Therefore, G55 has no idea who are innocents and Wolves, therefore, if she wants to impersonate Seer, she will have to make up random names. That's why she leaves it all for later, since a) either real Seer panicks and reveals, therefore WWs can kill the Seer next time, or b) people will expose her and lynch her and she will at least die heroically for the WW's cause. It would mean in any case drastically reducing the chances of winning. Now that we don't have a Ranger, the only thing left to rely on is the Hunter, and otherwise it is very much down to lynching a baddie toDay. 7 people -> if we mislynch, 6 people -> if the WWs don't manage to get the Hunter and get killed, 5 people next Day -> showdown. Good case scenario: G55 is genuinely a Seer and I can imagine it being so as well, then hopefully we can get some names toDay... Well, in either case, if G55 is good, it is in her best interest to really tell us the names of the innocents ASAP after she comes home, also because this village is so quiet that it's actually counterproductive to the attempt of figuring anything out of dialogue. And if we learn the names of the innocents too late, then a real Seer cannot disprove them, if there is one, and given the amount of people in the village, that's bad. Quote:
However, there is something to this, although on a subtler level than BG puts it - rather one could ask the question, would G55 really have made such posts earlier if she were a Seer? Then again, Seer needs to hide his tracks as well, so as not to be found too early, and thus may even post stuff that a Seer would never post (such as hiding that in the banter that followed in G55's post in question, with her saying "I am also an Ordo, a Cobbler... etc...") Quote:
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Well, that's it. All that said, I was at work during the first part of the Day, and it was nice not to have to read too many posts when I came, but still, a bit more would be nice... Also, I have to go to sleep soon again and then I'll be back only before DL, so... here we go. Still around for a while though, hope I at least x-posted with someone.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#19 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Hmm. Yes, well, care to elaborate what exactly you think about it, then?
(I am still going through people's posts earlier and preparing a summary-ish thing)
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#20 |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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I got the impression BG thought G55 looked more gifted than hackery. She said G55 was something (including hacker) but the way I read her posts she seemed more convinced of a gifted role. Now when G55 makes a reveal BG asks why we should trust her.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#21 |
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Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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Current Living:
Galadriel55 Legate Kitanna Boromir88 Blind Guardian Morsul the Dark Shasta Current Dead: Coppermirror, Lommy– seized by Adult Friend Finder. Nerwen, Aganzir– poisoned by webcrawlers. Rune– lashed to death with overseer-bot’s light whip. (Ordinary cyber-slave.) Inziladun– ICE pick to the head. (Ordinary cyber-slave.) Sally– pushed down a data-mineshaft. (R.A.N.G.E.R.) Lottie– rubbed out. (ordinary cyber-slave) Day One votes (italics = dead): Morsul —> Rune Inziladun —> Boro (Because of possible Hacker hint) Loslote —> Blind Guardian (Because I wasn't there) Kitanna —> Morsul (Because of a gut feeling) Sally —> Blind Guardian (2) (Again, because I wasn't there) Blind Guardian —> Rune (2) (Self-preservation, mainly [how many times have I died on Day One now?], and at the time he seemed to be the best bet.) Rune —> Morsul (2) Shasta --> Morsul (3) (Something that was radar pinging?) G55 --> Rune (3) (Wanted to vote Sally) Legate --> Rune (4) (I didn't see a reason, except that Rune was with her at the time? I gotta say this was a bandwagon vote.) Note: Boro didn't vote RESULT: Rune lynched - Ordo WOLF KILLED: Inziladun Day Two (italics = dead): Morsul --> Shasta (No reason, just some "hint") Kit --> Sally (1) (Doesn't like Sally's reasoning for voting for me) Loslote (This is Lottie right?) --> Morsul (1) (Wanted to vote for Morsul and I; voted Morsul because he was mysterious and threw out gifted hints) Satansaloser2005 (this is Sally right?) --> Legate Shasta --> Sally (2) (She was between Lottie and Sally, no reason given it seems.) Legate --> Sally (3) (Didn't like Sally's vote the day before [?]) G55 --> Sally (4) (Didn't like how Sally was behaving towards Morsul and I, thought she was suspicious) Boro --> Sally (5) (Didn't like Sally's votes) Note: I (BG) didn't vote RESULT: Sally lynched - R.A.N.G.E.R WOLF KILLED: LOTTIE Okay these were the results of the last two days and people reasons for them - feel free to correct it, some people gave confusing reasons or none at all that I can see. Shasta and Boro mainly. That leaves us with 1 Hacker, 1 Seer, 1 Hunter, X number of Wolves, and X number of Ordos. I would like to think 2 Wolves and 2 Ordos also, that leaves us with 1 Seer, 1 Hunter (right?), and 2 Ordos in our side. While they have 1 Hacker, and 2 Wolves. If not it would be, 1 Seer, 1 Hunter, and 1 Ordo, with them having 1 Hacker and 3 Wolves. I haven't read anything since my last post... and nothing happened since my last post.
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Adjust and calibrate when the memories start to fade; Into a carrier signal, origin unknown Last edited by Blind Guardian; 01-08-2014 at 07:37 PM. Reason: Changed the wording a bit, went from "her" to "Sally" - added italics - added more italics and a paragraph |
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#22 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Okay, so what I'm seeing so far is G55 has come out as the Seer and Morsul the Hunter. At the very least, everyone has posted now since G55's reveal, so I'm going to believe it since no one has countered her claim. I'm tentatively believing Morsul's reveal as well. Since I know I'm innocent, that means there's two bots and one hacker in the following group -
BG Boro Legate Kitanna Hopefully G55 has dreamt of one or two of those names. With a 75% chance of hitting a baddie, though, I'm tentatively hopeful!
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#23 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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By the way, if I sound confident that there are only two bots, it's because I am - besides the fact that the narrations pretty clearly only have lucyyenic and tomtom, if there were three bots they could have already won by now by voting with the Hacker.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#24 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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![]() In other news, brilliantly played Kit - I never really suspected you until after my death. General apologies for not being able to participate more. I seriously underestimated how much time classes were going to take up. Good game, though! Can't wait for the next one.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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I just read through all of G55's posts on the first 3 pages. Okay, she's said she was the seer twice and a wolf 1 1/2 times and maybe even the cobbler (because she does what she says someone else does). When I call her a seer she admits to being the seer, then get's protective, and then gets mad. Then her next two double posts she tries to chew me up and admits to being angry at my post.
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Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to take a look at Morsul's posts because he was the almost-lynchee. Edit: x-ed with a LOT of people... Edited again for misspellings and added some stuff to avoid confusion.
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Adjust and calibrate when the memories start to fade; Into a carrier signal, origin unknown Last edited by Blind Guardian; 01-08-2014 at 06:15 PM. |
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#26 |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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I think the nasty weather has finally knocked out my internet. I had hoped to do some analyses of yesterday, but doesn't seem probable since I have to post from my phone. Be prepared for a whole lot of short posts over the next hour.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#27 |
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Blossom of Dwimordene
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The realm of forgotten words
Posts: 10,517
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My suspicion list doesn't seem to need too much updating, but just for the record -
Galadriel55 - still the lovely me Sally - really don't like her vote yesterDay. Waiting for an explanation. Legate - no bad vibes, but feeling a bit... agreeable. It was there yesterDay as well, now that I think about it. Not necessarily evil, but worth investigating. Kitanna - no change at all from yesterDay, but I can sympathise with the bad weather - we got our electricity knocked out for several days last week, and heavy frosts this week - so I will probably give her a pass for toDay. I think she deserves a chance to read and post properly, so unless something will really ping my radar she's not on the vote list. Boromir88 - I. Don't. Know. I don't like the way he talks about Cobbler lynches; it makes me think he's subtly redirecting attention from a potential wolf to a potential cobbler. Coupled with Inzil's vote, he doesn't look fantastic. But I want to hear more from him before passing judgement. Blind Guardian - just stop talking about gifteds, will you? Maybe evil, maybe not, but seriously, if you don't stop mentioning your gifted hints I'm either going to think you're a wolf and thus don't care, or a cobbler eager to help. Loslote - in school. ![]() Morsul the Dark - still don't see him as suspicious. Shasta - a mna mnum. Mushy. I don't know. Hasn't shown up yet, right? Day2 Opinion delayed. EDIT: xed with Kit
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You passed from under darkened dome, you enter now the secret land. - Take me to Finrod's fabled home!... ~ Finrod: The Rock Opera |
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