T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

♪
O unexpected fortune! Our Galadriel remains.
Over why and how and who, we must now wrack our brains.
Poor King Amroth, his end was cruel, despite his well-beloved rule,
And we must find the villains here before the Night grows cool.
♪

On Day 1 after placing my last post, I actually hung around until the deadline anyway and watched the whole trainwreck unfold. I believed Agan's Seer reveal, watched in horror as Tar-Jex got killed and turned out to be the Ranger, and have been angsting all since and dragging my heels about coming back toDay, thinking that when I did I'd find out that the wolves had killed a Seer-Agan overNight and it would be all my fault. But Agan is alive, and I've been angsting for nothing? I should have checked in first thing toDay rather than coming in late.

The natural assumption now is that Agan is a wolf, but it seems there are suggestions that the wolves didn't believe the Seer-reveal and think she's got another role. I don't know if that makes sense, but I'll read people's arguments over for a while and see if I can understand them better.

I agree that there is really no need, if Agan is a wolf, for the real Seer to counter-reveal at this stage.

I'm pretty confused about the goings-on toDay, but at least there's not a huge amount of stuff to analyse.

The vote talley so far is:

Farael -> McCaber (1) (does it count when it's not in red?)
Rikae -> Kitanna (1)
Lottie -> Shasta (1)

Yet to vote: Sally, McCaber, Shasta, Coppermirror, Kitanna, Aganzir.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, she's Agan. Come on.

I'm missing some context here! Could you fill me in?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm missing some context here! Could you fill me in?

No context missing at all, really. That last bit was just me being silly.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Farael -> McCaber (1) (does it count when it's not in red?)
Rikae -> Kitanna (1)
Lottie -> Shasta (1)

So I can't sleep, and I've been keeping a grumpy (because I can't sleep) eye on you all from my phone. I Just wanted to clarify that the red votes weren't a thing when I played last (I don't think they were... I don't even know how to make something red!)

So to clarify

++McCaber

For the same reasons as above.

Of all the recent discussion, there's been little of substance that has been said, really.

Originally Posted by Copper

The natural assumption now is that Agan is a wolf, but it seems there are suggestions that the wolves didn't believe the Seer-reveal and think she's got another role.

I don't know where that suggestion was made (granted, I AM sleepy)... I think that most of us assume that either Agan is a wolf or the wolves chose to ignore the Seer (or were unable to attack the Seer) for some reason. I know I am splitting hairs here, and it's possible this is all a misunderstanding, but if I'm missing something I'd like that explained!

Rikae and Loslote haven't given us much, but the village was quite quiet when we were all on earlier, so I'm not quite ready to point fingers in their direction

Shasta and Sally have been arguing back and forth, but they are sounding like two wary villagers and not particularly evil.

So, over all, my top two suspects are

• Agan whose role will likely be clarified toNight and...
• McCaber for his iffy reasoning and "safe" (but misfired) vote

I expect this to change in later Days, but now I need to sleep.

Vote wisely my villagers!

Edit: X-ed with Sally.

[Farael]

Post X-post post (heh)

Could anyone explain the Shasta votes? He's not particularly innocent sounding to me... but neither is he particularly suspicious. This seems like straw-grasping by Loslote and Sally.

Loslote voted early on with little chatter to go on with but... Sally why did you vote for Shasta? Because he cast a vote you didn't like? And why is my pet suspect McCaber getting a pass for "making sense"? He DIDN'T. His logic wasn't to vote for someone who can defend themselves... but rather to vote for someone likely to be a "special player" (and even acknowledged this included gifted!). And Kit seems as much (or little) a suspect as Shasta. So why this one of the three that were on the slate?

Sally, if you are off to bed, then I hope you can answer these questions toMorrow should we meet again. This all sounds very fishy.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So, looking back through the thread...

Rikae's first post of the game basically takes for granted that Agan's a wolf ("she's either a wolf, or the wolves are insane.") Kitanna posts a bit in apparent support of an "Agan was framed!" theory. Rikae posts in opposition to that.

Lottie then pulls out the first big hammer in post #77:

Originally Posted by Lottie

This. I was 99% sure I would wake up to find Agan dead - she'd outed herself as the Seer seconds before we lynched our Ranger, there was no reason for the wolves not to kill her. Unless, I guess, she was heavily suspicious of one of their own, and they didn't want to point fingers at themselves? But even that doesn't make sense. It was Day 1, she hadn't had time to be heavily suspicious of anyone, and the wolves could have just said, "oh, she was killed for being the Seer, not for suspecting any of us."

I guess maybe the wolves knew we'd suspect her for not having been killed, and hoped we'd lynch her today. But that seems risky - what if she'd dreamed of a wolf? It's a bold play, and one I'm not sure we could reasonably attribute to the wolves.


Nimrodel is the only other gifted left, right? So, Agan says that she happened to dream of her, and then says she won't reveal who it is without her permission. Which, fair enough, I guess, but that's also the most convenient excuse to not have to be right about dreams currently possible in this game. I'm not convinced.

Note: If Agan's reveal is fake, I don't think we necessarily need a counter-reveal by the real Galadriel. If you wouldn't normally have revealed toDay, don't worry about having to debunk Agan. We'll find out soon enough whether or not she's lying, whether that means we disbelieve her and lynch her (which, I would actually wait another Day, just to be on the safe side) or, if she is actually the real Seer, I can't believe the wolves would risk leaving her alive another Night.

I can't really disagree with the points here; they're fairly commonsensical. To me, though, this post has a certain surety to it - like Rikae, Lottie seems supremely confident of Agan's guilt. Which is fair enough, I suppose, but I've always been the type of player to at least consider both sides; unless you're the MC, you really can't take anything at 100% face value. There are situations that are obvious, sure - but at this point in time, I'd say the AganSeer situation deserves at least a cursory examination.

It's also interesting to me that Lottie doesn't want to actually lynch Agan today. That seems like a valid precaution... if you think there's a possibility Agan really is the Seer. That doesn't seem to be the case here, though, which makes me wonder if Lottie doesn't just want to be on record as opposing Agan in the event of Agan's eventual death.

Rikae also mentions that she's not suggesting we lynch Agan today. It's also interesting to note that Rikae hasn't (at this point) really given any consideration to the possibility that Agan might be telling the truth. She just seems more matter-of-fact about it than Lottie does.

-------------------------

So, by the start of page 3, we have Lottie and Rikae firmly in the anti-Agan camp and Kitanna in the "maybe she's being framed" camp.

Post #83 by Lottie appears to be an escalation of what she's already said; she's even more convinced Agan is a wolf, but also even more against lynching her today, "just in case". That seems rather counterintuitive to me - it also seems like the kind of distancing a wolf would do once she sees the suspicion train start to pick up on a packmate.

Another quote by Lottie (this is turning out to be quite the anti-Lottie post, isn't it?)

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Rikae and Agan were packmates, I would have expected them to play that up a bit more - have Rikae lead the charge, stage a loud battle between Agan and Rikae, and let Rikae take the glory for finding a wolf, thus making her seem much more innocent. If Agan is a wolf, I would probably say that Rikae is probably not her packmate.

This looks rather familiar...

Farael makes his debut in #91, also doesn't trust Agan (with bullet points!) and also doesn't want to lynch her today. However, while most of his bullet points are written from the point of view that Agan is a lying wolf, there's this one that confuses me -

Originally Posted by Farael

Then Agan goes out and gives us a "known" Ordo (Rikae). Why would she do that? Rikae hasn't said much yet, and she's not under suspicion. Agan didn't save Rikae's life as much as condemn her to a death in Night 3 (as the wolves will likely off Agan and then off our one "known" ordo)

I mean, if I were the Seer and I was almost sure I'd be dead soon (either by false lynch or nightkill) I'd probably tell what I knew. I'd feel pretty silly if the person I dreamt innocent was lynched after I died, for instance. In any case, what confuses me here is that most of Farael's post appears to be written from the point of view that he doesn't trust Agan, but this point appears to be written to be true if Agan is the Seer?

I may just be misreading, or miscomprehending, or something. It's 1:30 am. If you could clarify, Farael, that'd be good.

Post #94, Sally shows up, immediately decides that Agan is lying. As of right now, literally Agan' only possible supporter is Kitanna (at least, of those who have posted.)

Oh! Farael does clarify what he meant a bit in post #95, with the Nimrodel-as-protector theory. I'll grant that it seems rather far-fetched, but given that there's no real way to say definitively that it's not the case, I think it deserves at least a bit of thought.

Post #99, Lottie again. She's been looking at Kitanna and I, and ends up deciding to vote for me based on Kitanna supporting Agan earlier in the day. So, what I'm getting from this is... if you support Agan, you're not suspicious, but as per what Lottie said previously, if you're skeptical of Agan's claim (cf. everyone else who's posted thus far), you're not really suspicious either?

And that's me caught up.