Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 06-04-2015, 12:30 PM

Why I tend to think you tp might not be a wolf just now? Exactly because Rune is the other one killed last Night.

I mean some people when they are wolves want to make confusion-killings by killing someone nobody expects and whose death leads the village into totally wrong tracks (even I can appreciate that tactic early in the game if there just isn't anyone you'd get seer-vibes from), but like you (and a tons of players during WW-history - myself included) have said: it's the seer, the seer, the seer, the wolves want and need to pick, the sooner the better. And in this game it is doubly important as otherwise the villagers are more or less in total darkness but the seer gets double-dreams.

Had it been you tp and Aganzir here as my company, I'd think differently about your lycantrophy. But yes, I see little reason in your team of wolves picking Rune - or your team to not pick Aganzir as your Nightkill (unless you are mates of course - which I'm not counting totally off as a possibility).

If I was a wolf and Aganzir was not on my wolf-pack I'd sure have tried to kill her: whether she'd be a competing wolf or a gifted - positive outcome for my wolf-pack both ways.

Might I add a third explanation for the Night kill of Mr. phantom? It might have been nothing you said or seemed to know or think on D1. It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

the phantom · 06-04-2015, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

It did occur to me, but I sort of have that idea on hold for now seeing as no one has really stood up and tried to lead the village on a terrible tactical path. But I suppose that wouldn't be seen until Day 3 anyway seeing as the Dead have no info to give them today. Okay, so yes, that is a possibility to keep the eyes open for.

And in the meantime, we're just killing time until the voting gets rolling. We can't take action until they do, so it's a waiting game. Bleh.

the phantom · 06-04-2015, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

And of course Nerwen today bolded a "my shining star" at Shasta. So maybe them....?

And today Shasta signaled back, similarly in bold "my sun in splendour". So like I said, a possible Lover combo, and does that make it slightly less likely that they are WWs no matter what? Because would a WW fake being a Lover? Wouldn't that make them a more likely Night kill? I faked a Lover connection because I didn't mind dying, thus I'm itching to extend an innocent label to anyone who does the same, but perhaps I shouldn't?

What do you think?

Nogrod · 06-04-2015, 01:59 PM

I think the thing between Nerwen and Shasta goes far back and occurs in every game they play, calling each other with over-honeyed terms... So I wouldn't go making any inferences from that.

I've almost read the thread through but need now to prepare some late night dinner for Lommy & Legate who are just coming here after a day of renovating their flat.

Just a few thoughts I've picked along while reading...

It seems Rune’s death is not that odd it felt to me in the first place – or how odd you tp like to paint it.

Aganzir is too careful and observant for her own good (she had thought fex. that tp will call the shots here as both me & Rune are Europeans so that you tp most probably get the final say). Also she is backing Sally whom I tend to suspect for several reasons.

I'm a bit uneasy with Greenie and Lottie

(That's like without reading the last page through)

And you're right. There's little to do before people start voting - except to try and collect our thoughts...

See you soonish (aka. an hour or two).

the phantom · 06-04-2015, 02:34 PM

Okay, so I have to ask- who are your Seer suspects?

Fact is, since Agan is one of the only sensible possibilities at the moment, how can we justify putting her under the gun.

In this game format everything is an absolute mess.
1) You can't tell if you've lynched a Wolf.
2) You can't tell if a Wolf was night killed.
3) Wolf-on-Wolf means nothing because there are separate packs, therefore voting is less telling than usual.
4) Wolves can't tell if someone looks Seerish because they don't know who all the Wolves are, thus night kill choices aren't as telling as usual.

The fact is, the double-dream Seer is BY FAR the best (maybe the only) thing the village has going for it in terms of making rational decisions, thus our top priority early in the game is NOT lynching WWs, but rather our highest calling is avoiding lynching possible Seers.

So even if Agan is 75% likely to be a WW, I still wouldn't kill her if she is 25% likely to be the Seer.

06-04-2015, 12:30 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Why I tend to think you tp might not be a wolf just now? Exactly because Rune is the other one killed last Night. I mean some people when they are wolves want to make confusion-killings by killing someone nobody expects and whose death leads the village into totally wrong tracks (even I can appreciate that tactic early in the game if there just isn't anyone you'd get seer-vibes from), but like you (and a tons of players during WW-history - myself included) have said: it's the seer, the seer, the seer, the wolves want and need to pick, the sooner the better. And in this game it is doubly important as otherwise the villagers are more or less in total darkness but the seer gets double-dreams. Had it been you tp and Aganzir here as my company, I'd think differently about your lycantrophy. But yes, I see little reason in your team of wolves picking Rune - or your team to not pick Aganzir as your Nightkill (unless you are mates of course - which I'm not counting totally off as a possibility). If I was a wolf and Aganzir was not on my wolf-pack I'd sure have tried to kill her: whether she'd be a competing wolf or a gifted - positive outcome for my wolf-pack both ways. Might I add a third explanation for the Night kill of Mr. phantom? It might have been nothing you said or seemed to know or think on D1. It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes? __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

06-04-2015, 01:59 PM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I think the thing between Nerwen and Shasta goes far back and occurs in every game they play, calling each other with over-honeyed terms... So I wouldn't go making any inferences from that. I've almost read the thread through but need now to prepare some late night dinner for Lommy & Legate who are just coming here after a day of renovating their flat. Just a few thoughts I've picked along while reading... It seems Rune’s death is not that odd it felt to me in the first place – or how odd you tp like to paint it. Aganzir is too careful and observant for her own good (she had thought fex. that tp will call the shots here as both me & Rune are Europeans so that you tp most probably get the final say). Also she is backing Sally whom I tend to suspect for several reasons. I'm a bit uneasy with Greenie and Lottie (That's like without reading the last page through) And you're right. There's little to do before people start voting - except to try and collect our thoughts... See you soonish (aka. an hour or two). __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

06-04-2015, 02:34 PM	#5
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Okay, so I have to ask- who are your Seer suspects? Fact is, since Agan is one of the only sensible possibilities at the moment, how can we justify putting her under the gun. In this game format everything is an absolute mess. 1) You can't tell if you've lynched a Wolf. 2) You can't tell if a Wolf was night killed. 3) Wolf-on-Wolf means nothing because there are separate packs, therefore voting is less telling than usual. 4) Wolves can't tell if someone looks Seerish because they don't know who all the Wolves are, thus night kill choices aren't as telling as usual. The fact is, the double-dream Seer is BY FAR the best (maybe the only) thing the village has going for it in terms of making rational decisions, thus our top priority early in the game is NOT lynching WWs, but rather our highest calling is avoiding lynching possible Seers. So even if Agan is 75% likely to be a WW, I still wouldn't kill her if she is 25% likely to be the Seer. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.