Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Kuruharan]

POST GAME EDIT: Living Thread, Agan's Memorable Post List

First off, GAH, I forgot to put the number in the title of the Living Thread.

Bad me!

Second...

This is the Dead Thread for the Tenth Anniversary Barrow Downs Werewolf Game.

If you are a Living Player, you cannot come in the way is shut. Reading further constitutes cheating.

If you are dead, the doors open for you and in you go like it or not.








































































Welcome.

Dead players may read this entire thread and continue to read the main game thread. You may, however, only post here. You may post here NIGHT and DAY. By DAY, after there are three residents here, you may vote for a Living Player to be given a double vote for that DAY's lynch. The Living Player will not know of this until after the fact, but it will be clearly stated in the post-DAY narration who had their vote doubled.

Every NIGHT after there are three residents here you may vote for me to reveal the alignment of one dead player which I will state as PREDATOR or PREY.

The deadline is 10PM US Eastern.

Participation is optional.

As in the Living Thread, ties result in nothing happening.

And...if you ARE still alive, stop it. You will live in shame for the rest of your days if you cheat and you know it!

The Dead
many names will be here soon

[Kuruharan]

A sudden stirring in the mist.

A light appeared.

The place had a resident.

A bit lonely, but there is some equipment and materials over there in the corner. You might as well redeem the time and make a little place for yourself while you wait for others to join you.

There is also cake.

You can be sure that others will join you.

Either way, you may speak or be silent as you wish...starting...NOW!

*POOF*

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod

The Living:
Formendacil
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Macalaure
Gwathagor
McCaber
Loslote
Boromir88
Aganzir
Nerwen
Rune Son of Bjarne
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Legate of Amon Lanc
the phantom
Mithalwen
A Little Green
Kath

[Nogrod]

Cosy... and the cake is good, thank you - but a bit lonely indeed. Well, that's going to be mended pretty soon.

Two things: not because they are super-important but because, well because I can post to this thread.

It's interesting to see this game never changes. So if you are a) a vocal player and b) you are of some mind on any issue (aka. most people know that you play in the first place and what you think in general) then the chances that you get lynched on D1 will be very high.

But as lynching doesn't mean getting kicked out of the game this time, I'm pretty happy with it. In this thread it is at least possible to play as we have at least some information unlike the Living thread were they'll basically be shooting in the dark all the time (unless they receive visitors).

Secondly I'd like to see the faces of those innocents who backed an organized voting of sorts (were there any innocents involved, is another question?) when they see how smoothly all went in the end with the last minute cacophony.

There are too many moving pieces for any village to orchestrate a voting - unless there is a believable seer dream or the number of villagers vs. the number of roles known -ratio is good enough (in a small enough setting of course - not with 20+ players, ever).


Okay. I'm probably getting company at an hour I'm still sleeping so I'll probably post something later before I go to sleep just for you other dead to think about.

[Kuruharan]

Just as a note: Results of the NIGHTly alignment vote will be posted immediately so that the Dead will have that alignment information in hand for the next DAY.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's interesting to see this game never changes.

DAY 1 is often pretty crazy toward the end.

Hopefully this game will also have some pretty crazy days left to come.

[Nogrod]

So here’s my two cents on some general issues we’d need to tackle on this first Day here together. Basically I think we have two issues: whom of us to check during the Night to come and whom to give the double-vote by Day and on which grounds – and what kind of problems there will be to make the double-vote significant in a benefical way. I would call the tasks “gathering information” and “influencing the game”.


Gathering information

With the best/worst case scenario there will be three people entering the afterworld during every Day-Night –cycle – in which time we are able to check the alignment of just one. So we will be actually knowing very little indeed. I mean even if there’d be Days with no lynch or if one Night-kill would fail to happen it will take only a few D-N –cycles when we have a situation where we only know the identities of let’s say 3 in comparison to 9 unknowns. It is not so good I kind of hoped for (yeah I really hadn’t too much time to check the rules that well before the game started).

But whom to check then with our precious few opportunities to do that?

Obviously we should pay heed to which solid knowledge could help the village the most if / when someone comes here to pay a visit and will resurrect back to the Living to share the news.

Also if someone has acted very suspiciously in the Living Thread (or is the phantom) or we have other strong reasons to believe someone is a wolf (like s/he acts suspiciously here) that person should be our number one candidate for checking.

But what if we don’t have a clear candidate – or don’t agree on one (in the end we’ll vote, of course)? Are there any other grounds for choosing the person whose alignment to reveal? I mean that might be something we need to ponder now early in the game – unless we get enough controversial people here…

Just looking a bare numbers one might think the lynched are slightly more probably wolves than the Night kills so checking them would be more benefical. Then again the wolves can sway the lynch-vote (which I think could have happened on D1), especially in this game where there are no evident traces left from any last minute mate-saving efforts. So the wolves seem to be better in saving their mates from lynching this time which would mean the Night kills would be the more probable source of wolves pouring in here?

It’s hard to say. I kind of hoped this thinking would have led me into some decent advice we could take when in doubt – but sadly it doesn ‘t seem to be that way.


Influencing the game

After reading the rules more carefully I found another setback here (the other being that we don’t know so much I thought, discussed above). Our ability to influnce the vote is more or less random – and in no way have we control over what happens in the lynching of the Living Thread unless by chance as the last minute frenzy might turn the voting to whichever direction – and later on when we have more people here the same frenzy will spread to this thread as well.

It will come as no suprise to you I didn’t like the phantom’s grand plan on D1 and even if I do admit it has some merit in principle (as a nice thought-experiment) it is in no way executable (the suggestion can be found from #34). First of all it is questionable we get that kind of a nice setting where we can pick from three different person from both sides of the lynchees with an unanimous understanding of the way the Living will interpret it. Secondly the last minute mayhem will prove a problem here as well as the majority of the votes could be coming in at the last minutes and there might just not be time to elaborate the “rules of interpretation” not to say being able to execute the correct vote from this thread.

So I’d say we try – at least on the early days – to just give an extra vote to someone who is voting for someone we think is more probably a wolf than not. It would be a nice bonus if there would be someone we think of as a particularly innocent voting that person we suspect and give our extra-vote to her/him to kind of show whom we tend to trust that person (later on we might actually have some real reasons to trust someone or suspect someone – reasons the living don’t have).


~*~

I do not like to try and set anything in stone or make rules to ourselves as the game can surprise and we can’t foresee all the situations that will emerge – but I hope these thoughts could serve as the beginning of our discussion on D2 when we have to decide whom to give the extra vote – and N3 when we need to select one of us to be revealed.

A few Days and Nights from now the situation might be something we can’t even imagine now it being.

Btw. as an European (although an European on semi-vacation) I am not able to hang out around the DL (the DL is 5am here), so I’ll be withdrawing something like 3-4 hours before the DL the latest – in principle.


Looking forwards having company here! (I should be around in something like 12 hours from now - like six hours after the Day starts)

[Kuruharan]

The first denizen, having eaten some cake, left a message for those that came after and then had settled into quietude.

New lights disturbed the mist, victims of murders most foul.

They will probably have much to discuss with each other...

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne

The Living:
Formendacil
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Macalaure
Gwathagor
McCaber
Loslote
Boromir88
Aganzir
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
A Little Green
Kath

Those of you who are new, welcome! Try the cake. Here we have cake AND death!

Kick back and enjoy watching the antics of the Living Thread.

Remember to vote for somebody to empower with a double vote!

Housekeeping Note: I will always post the Dead Thread narrations before the Living Thread.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

But as lynching doesn't mean getting kicked out of the game this time, I'm pretty happy with it.

Indeed. And didn't I say I'd be making my way to the Dead without your fanning the lynching flames?

Originally Posted by me

I'll be an asset to whatever thread I'm in, Noggie. If you really want me in the Dead thread...

Hey Wolves. Kill me tonight. Ranger. Do not protect me.

There. We'll see if that works.

But no, I'm not going to volunteer for lynching. Totally pointless.

Originally Posted by me

And just so you know, I'm operating under the assumption that any Wolf would be desperate to kill me in case I'm in the opposing pack.

Yeah, I figured I'd be Night killed promptly. With two packs running around it was basically a certainty. Someone loud like me always says enough that either they see a good opportunity to frame someone or they get worried about something.

Anyway, I see you didn't enter the Dead thread with a rant about why we shouldn't have killed our precious Seer/Ranger/etc. so I'm just going to assume you're a Wolf.

Okay, okay... maybe a 5% chance you're an Ordo.
(Well actually a 50% chance given the village population on Day 1.)

Heh heh- I'd really love to check you tonight, but if the Living request the identity of someone else (Rune, me, today's lynch) then I'll probably just go along with it. We'll see.

Anyway, no reason for us to stop playing, right? Soon enough this thread will be the lively one (in the posting sense). So, I will do a bit of Day 1 analysis after I eat and before I go to bed.

[the phantom]

And just so you know, I was quite content with the tie that we forged before Sally tipped the scales and made it a lynch. It's difficult to get a feel for anyone on Day 1 what with all the enthusiasm and nerves and rust etc. and I thought it would be nice to be bailed out with a tie and essentially force the WWs to make the first move. But I'm not waffling on my choice- I was sincere in wishing Nog lynched before Agan and Form.

Form just looked waaaaay too much like an Ordo (but maybe it was just gutsy fantastic play?), and I was slightly worried about Agan being Gifted. Nog on the other hand- I felt he was not Gifted, and more likely a Wolf than Form. In other words, somewhat suspicious and very safe. If it had been entirely in my hands I was probably more suspicious of Firefoot (and I hated her vote), but I didn't feel a campaign against her would amount to much- certainly wouldn't yield enough votes to make things close or even forge a tie.

Anyway, off to eat. See you later.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And just so you know, I was quite content with the tie that we forged before Sally tipped the scales and made it a lynch. It's difficult to get a feel for anyone on Day 1 what with all the enthusiasm and nerves and rust etc. and I thought it would be nice to be bailed out with a tie and essentially force the WWs to make the first move. But I'm not waffling on my choice- I was sincere in wishing Nog lynched before Agan and Form.

Form just looked waaaaay too much like an Ordo (but maybe it was just gutsy fantastic play?), and I was slightly worried about Agan being Gifted. Nog on the other hand- I felt he was not Gifted, and more likely a Wolf than Form. In other words, somewhat suspicious and very safe. If it had been entirely in my hands I was probably more suspicious of Firefoot (and I hated her vote), but I didn't feel a campaign against her would amount to much- certainly wouldn't yield enough votes to make things close or even forge a tie.

Not that I want to make a habit out of agreeing with you, or backing your perplexing plans, but yeah... uhm I agree.

Form had Ordo written all over him. Personally I did not suspect Agan of being gifted, but she was one of the few people that seemed genuine (as much as that is possible for Agan) to me. I was a lot more weary of people like Lommy, her posted seemed contrived, and her outbursts overdone.

Since I will be otherwise occupied the rest of the day, it is unlikely that I will contribute with major analysis or have time to rummage through what happened yesterday, but I will try to keep an eye on the living thread.

[the phantom]

Ah, welcome to the Dead Thread, Rune. Similar to Nog, since you didn't lead off with "This is disaster! I'm the Seer!" I will assume you're not vital to the village. If it's true that all three of us are ungifted, then really we should be quite happy to be dead.

Anyway, I'm nearly done with my Day 1 readthrough (putting checks and plus signs and Gifted marks etc. next to names as I read...)

[the phantom]

My re-read of yesterday didn't result in thoughts much different than those I already had. Ah well...

Agan- I was mighty suspicious of those that voted for her (or pushed for her) because she gave off more Gifted signs than anyone else. Yes, yes, I realize that Wolves can give off Gifted signs early (pronounced self-interest, self-focus retaliatory suspicions, etc.), but why risk voting for someone on Day 1 that looks likely to have a role?
I marked seven people for possible Gifteds (Nerwen, Nilp, Sally, Boro, Rune, Mith, Agan, Green), but Agan accumulated 5 marks by the end- way more than anyone else. Not to mention that I, early on as a ploy (before she looked so Gifted-ish), tried to hint at Agan being my Lover. Did those attacking her not catch it, or did they totally see what I did and wanted to kill my Lover?

Anyway, that might've been what tipped the scales for going after Nog- because I thought he was the opportunistic sort that might catch such a signal and look to bump off a Gifted. It's why I thought him more Wolfish than Agan, anyway (and Form certainly looked innocent).

Anyway, a list of the living....

Very positive marks currently-
Rikae
Morm
Mith
Form
Boro
Lommy
Agan

Somewhat positive marks currently-
Nilp
Sally
Nerwen

I'm not certain, mixed signals-
Firefoot
Shasta
Eomer
Mac
Green
McCaber
Legate

Suspicious at the moment-
Lalaith
Loslote
Kath

Any speculation as to why Rune and I were killed? Also, if Agan is the Seer it seems she dreamt Lommy and Firefoot overnight and cleared them (and dreamt me and Legate yesterday- wondered if her Nobel Prize comment was a hint that Leggy had a Gifted role, especially when paired with her comment about the Seer finding a Gifted and then hinting to him).

Anyway, possibly pointless to even be speculating on such things with almost no information, but I can't help myself.

[the phantom]

I hope the Living remember that, if they want us to signal information to them tomorrow, they need to tell us who to examine tonight.

I was sort of operating under the assumption they'd want us to check lynch victims (Nog or today's victim) because that would make the vote possibly telling, but interesting that Nilp is confident that the Dead will vote for me. That seems a bit odd in a way- doesn't the identity of a WW kill yield less information to the village? Thus a WW would be interested in learning the identity of a Night kill because (1) it isn't so helpful to the village, and (2) he wants to know if his night kill was a good one.

So yeah, Nilp could be a sneaky WW. And he could also be a Lover (mainly looking at Sally referring to him as "my darling boy" and even bolding the text).

And of course Nerwen today bolded a "my shining star" at Shasta. So maybe them....?

But then Nerwen and Sally both could've been doing the same thing I was doing- just trying to fake being a Lover as an Ordo in order to attract a Nightkill from the WWs to provide cover for the other Gifteds. Anyway...

[the phantom]

I was hoping to have a conversation before bed, but I guess not.

I'll see you two in a few hours.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was hoping to have a conversation before bed, but I guess not.

I'll see you two in a few hours.

It is a bit difficult, I am sitting in an office environment, with one of the team-leads sitting directly behind me.

Nilp's certainty that we would check your identity seems odd indeed. It must be an example of a person transferring standard WW-logic to a "mandos-style" game (He sees us as still being active players, and one always feel better by knowing your true identity).

I think that the analysis made in the living thread about my death is spot on. My so called "uneasiness" probably lead the wolves to think that I am gifted. I was aware that this might happen, and though self-preservation is my chief motivator, in this particular game I did not care that much.

I have to admit that I did not pick up on your hints, but then again, if I had been a wolf I would probably have read through the posts in greater detail.

[Nogrod]

So it took me longer I thought to come back here, but well, here we are.

You're most welcome Rune & phantom. Nice to have company.

I haven't yet read tp's analysis or checked the living thread (I just thought to pop up to say hi first), but will do so the next before I need to attend some RL-stuff. I'll be able to play more in the evening (our time).


Just commenting on the few things you've said then (Outside tp's analysis -stuff).

I fully agree with Form looking very much an ordo - and I fully disagree with Aganzir looking like one. I even think it possible some of her packmates actually rescued her from lynching with late-votes.

Does Agan's possible guilt make Lommy any better? Nope. It might actually be wolf-on-wolf (from different packs I'd say).


About checking someone here - I'd still wish not to set anything in stone: there are so different situations that sometimes it's best to check someone lynched and sometimes one Nigh-killed. It depends on which knowledge would be most beneficial to the village - or which accumulated pile of knowledge would be the most beneficial.

I mean let's remember that the best thing we can do is hoping for a lover or a ranger to come over (not too early in the game) and take a neat package of info with her/him back to the living.

All this other "let's give an extra-vote to X so they can interpret our message" is peanuts compared to our real chance of affecting the game.

Btw. that actually lessens my interest in checking the phantom (even I kind of swore I would insist on doing that the first thing you come around! ) - and it might even be them knowing of my innocence might be our best offer (for them to read the voting on D1) - but let's see who joins us toDay before making any hasty conclusions (and anyway, it's a matter for the Night to discuss whom to check among us).

[Nogrod]

Just a short one... I wouldn't say Aganzir looked like a self-confident gifted-scared but like an overconfident wolf-scared. But yeah, these are hard things to tell from one another unless you have more information.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Okay, I have gone and confused my self.

For some reason I thought we could get to know the allegiance of living players... I am a bit stressed at the moment.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oooor what if both packs targeted the phantom who was the Hunter and Rune his pick?

Did you do this!?

Actually, I think it is pretty clear that I was a wolf-kill from the narration.

Anyways, the dead should rule the living! But as Nogrod and others have stated, that will be very difficult, with most of the voting being done just before the deadline. In most cases I will have to vote some 5-6 hours before deadline... The next few days being possible exceptions.

I won't be in front of a computer until perhaps just before deadline today, but if I can I will check in via my portable communication device.

[the phantom]

I'm disappointed in the Living thus far. A lot of folks have been rather absent (both yesterday and today) and not enough folks have been quoting the Night kill victims in an attempt to point out why they were killed (in terms of "Because of X they thought he was the Seer, because of Y they thought he was the Ranger" etc.).

Originally Posted by Agan

I also like phantom. I don't necessarily find him innocent but I like him. Hey phants I missed you.

Originally Posted by me

Right back at you, my lion.

I'm incredibly surprised no one has picked up on that exchange. At least they did quote me "painting the bulls eye" where I was daring the packs to kill me.

But why kill Rune? It was obvious he was busy with RL stuff and he basically didn't declare anyone innocent (except Form when he voted for him, which would seem to undo a defense) and didn't really paint anyone as guilty (he labelled Green as more annoying).

If I was a WW the Seer would be the only viable target in the early going. So I have to ask why Rune would be killed. And what would make me look like a Seer? As someone on the Living thread pointed out I had groups of 4 (rather than 2) at the top and bottom of my list. So no, I don't really think there's good Seer evidence for me.

So that leaves (1) truthful kill and (2) misleading kill. In other words, one pack could've targeted me because I somewhat suspected all three of them, or because I felt good about all three of them. But of course if option 2 was the case I'd expect one of the pack to hint as much on the thread (suggest I was killed for having correct suspicions to see if others would latch onto it).

Oh, and Rune- if I had been the Hunter I would've chosen ++Phantom as my Hunt victim in the early going, until I had some information to go on.

[Nogrod]

Why I tend to think you tp might not be a wolf just now? Exactly because Rune is the other one killed last Night.

I mean some people when they are wolves want to make confusion-killings by killing someone nobody expects and whose death leads the village into totally wrong tracks (even I can appreciate that tactic early in the game if there just isn't anyone you'd get seer-vibes from), but like you (and a tons of players during WW-history - myself included) have said: it's the seer, the seer, the seer, the wolves want and need to pick, the sooner the better. And in this game it is doubly important as otherwise the villagers are more or less in total darkness but the seer gets double-dreams.

Had it been you tp and Aganzir here as my company, I'd think differently about your lycantrophy. But yes, I see little reason in your team of wolves picking Rune - or your team to not pick Aganzir as your Nightkill (unless you are mates of course - which I'm not counting totally off as a possibility).

If I was a wolf and Aganzir was not on my wolf-pack I'd sure have tried to kill her: whether she'd be a competing wolf or a gifted - positive outcome for my wolf-pack both ways.

Might I add a third explanation for the Night kill of Mr. phantom? It might have been nothing you said or seemed to know or think on D1. It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

It might have been just them removing you from the list of the living as a possibly dangerous rival wolf / influential villager aka. as someone who might thwart their plans later on or just leaving the village without one loud, sharp and critical voice to better orchestrate their schemes?

It did occur to me, but I sort of have that idea on hold for now seeing as no one has really stood up and tried to lead the village on a terrible tactical path. But I suppose that wouldn't be seen until Day 3 anyway seeing as the Dead have no info to give them today. Okay, so yes, that is a possibility to keep the eyes open for.

And in the meantime, we're just killing time until the voting gets rolling. We can't take action until they do, so it's a waiting game. Bleh.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

And of course Nerwen today bolded a "my shining star" at Shasta. So maybe them....?

And today Shasta signaled back, similarly in bold "my sun in splendour". So like I said, a possible Lover combo, and does that make it slightly less likely that they are WWs no matter what? Because would a WW fake being a Lover? Wouldn't that make them a more likely Night kill? I faked a Lover connection because I didn't mind dying, thus I'm itching to extend an innocent label to anyone who does the same, but perhaps I shouldn't?

What do you think?

[Nogrod]

I think the thing between Nerwen and Shasta goes far back and occurs in every game they play, calling each other with over-honeyed terms... So I wouldn't go making any inferences from that.

I've almost read the thread through but need now to prepare some late night dinner for Lommy & Legate who are just coming here after a day of renovating their flat.

Just a few thoughts I've picked along while reading...

It seems Rune’s death is not that odd it felt to me in the first place – or how odd you tp like to paint it.

Aganzir is too careful and observant for her own good (she had thought fex. that tp will call the shots here as both me & Rune are Europeans so that you tp most probably get the final say). Also she is backing Sally whom I tend to suspect for several reasons.

I'm a bit uneasy with Greenie and Lottie

(That's like without reading the last page through)

And you're right. There's little to do before people start voting - except to try and collect our thoughts...

See you soonish (aka. an hour or two).

[the phantom]

Okay, so I have to ask- who are your Seer suspects?

Fact is, since Agan is one of the only sensible possibilities at the moment, how can we justify putting her under the gun.

In this game format everything is an absolute mess.
1) You can't tell if you've lynched a Wolf.
2) You can't tell if a Wolf was night killed.
3) Wolf-on-Wolf means nothing because there are separate packs, therefore voting is less telling than usual.
4) Wolves can't tell if someone looks Seerish because they don't know who all the Wolves are, thus night kill choices aren't as telling as usual.

The fact is, the double-dream Seer is BY FAR the best (maybe the only) thing the village has going for it in terms of making rational decisions, thus our top priority early in the game is NOT lynching WWs, but rather our highest calling is avoiding lynching possible Seers.

So even if Agan is 75% likely to be a WW, I still wouldn't kill her if she is 25% likely to be the Seer.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh, and Rune- if I had been the Hunter I would've chosen ++Phantom as my Hunt victim in the early going, until I had some information to go on.

The narcissistic play, I am not surprised.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rune

The narcissistic play, I am not surprised.

Heh, I wouldn't say that. Rather, the cautious play. As a Hunter I'd be much more terrified of blowing it than excited about the prospect of hitting it, if you follow.

As I said earlier, this village is rather blind so as a Hunter I'd almost feel like I was more of a threat to the village than to the Wolves. Well, statistically speaking that's true!

Thus I would hunt ++myself because I'd be scared of accidentally killing someone valuable. A Hunter is much more of an asset late in the game because (1) he can reveal & be ruled out, (2) Baddies may be afraid to kill him after the reveal thus he possibly survives that night to be a known innocent the following day as well (3) the percentage of hitting a Baddie increases as the village population decreases. So my Hunter strategy would be to refuse to use my Gift and try to stay alive long enough to make my Gift a factor.

[the phantom]

Anyway, while we're waiting around we should share music/sports/humor links on YouTube or something. And make the innocent wonder why on earth the Dead thread is so active.

Also, did anyone notice the first letters of Boro's first three posts? F-B-I

It's almost certainly coincidence, but those are the sort of things I look at just in case.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Det

Originally Posted by the phantom

Heh, I wouldn't say that. Rather, the cautious play. As a Hunter I'd be much more terrified of blowing it than excited about the prospect of hitting it, if you follow.

As I said earlier, this village is rather blind so as a Hunter I'd almost feel like I was more of a threat to the village than to the Wolves. Well, statistically speaking that's true!

Thus I would hunt ++myself because I'd be scared of accidentally killing someone valuable. A Hunter is much more of an asset late in the game because (1) he can reveal & be ruled out, (2) Baddies may be afraid to kill him after the reveal thus he possibly survives that night to be a known innocent the following day as well (3) the percentage of hitting a Baddie increases as the village population decreases. So my Hunter strategy would be to refuse to use my Gift and try to stay alive long enough to make my Gift a factor.

This level of empathy And matureness does not become you.

[Nogrod]

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish. But yeah, I need to go back to do some reading again.

Originally Posted by tp

Also, did anyone notice the first letters of Boro's first three posts? F-B-I

It's almost certainly coincidence, but those are the sort of things I look at just in case.

Nice pick!

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish. But yeah, I need to go back to do some reading again.

Nice pick!

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

So The Old Lady is more likeable because she got caught?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rune

This level of empathy And matureness does not become you.

Ha ha! But really, people ought to know that my ego is not my defining feature in Werewolf- rather it's an everpresent humorous sidebar. My defining feature is- I want to win. Nothing else gets in the way of that. (e.g. the last Dead Thread game where I was a Cobbler, some thought my ego was getting in the way because I didn't want to be lynched as a Cobbler, but in fact what was really going on was I was trying to clinch the win by lynching the Hunter and having her kill me- it was purely about tactics).

Originally Posted by Nog

How about the Champions League final on Saturday? Do the Spanish billionaires continue dominating the field or has Juve what it takes to kick them off the trophy?

Well, I'm fine with Barc winning if Messi puts on a show as he did a few days ago. But really England has won it a couple times semi-recently (Man & Chelsea) and Italy and Germany have both won it, so I wouldn't call Spain's run too dominant.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm having hard times believing Aganzir to be the seer (in which I can of course be wrong). She looks nervously confident and scheming and (too)cognizant (too well informed), not seerish.

But the Seer is well informed, right? The WWs know three roles, whereas the Seer currently knows five. The Seer is the most informed.

And if not her as Seer, who else?

[Nogrod]

It's just that the Spanish billionires have won basically everything the last two decades (except what Bayern has taken from them) and it would be nice someone else did for a change.

[the phantom]

Note: have to conduct some business, but I won't be gone particularly long. In case you have to go to bed before I'm back, just, you know, keep an eye on the Living for reveals in need of saving etc. and vote smart. (I would say don't vote at all and leave it entirely in my hands, I'd probably prefer it, but if only one of you is innocent it would ensure a tie and even if you're both innocent you probably don't trust me quite enough to do that, ah well.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But the Seer is well informed, right? The WWs know three roles, whereas the Seer currently knows five. The Seer is the most informed.

And if not her as Seer, who else?

Yes, but the seer works alone - one who can discuss things with other good players is much more widely understanding of the different aspects of a situation in a totally weird game like this.

I don't know who else, but could you give me a reason to believe she actually is the seer - I mean if we just stick with this kind of meta-arguments (nervous, tries to hide or not make any controversies etc.) they ill include half the village - well third or fourth at least.

I see you tp backing her very consistently and it might be you're right and she's the seer and you're a bright ordo guessing that correctly. But I think there is another explanation which puts you two in the same pack... with probably Boro as the third? (Okay the last one is kind of a result of two things I read within a short interval - your neat way of noticing Boro had this FBI and Boro's post #286 in the living thread which would fit nicely if you three were a pack together.)

The biggest trouble is, I'm not too confident I would have managed to spot one whole wolf-trio on Day2... and I am totally aware it might be just totally wrong. But it is the most coherent explanation for several things that have happened I can come up thus far.

But we can check people here and need not get caught in unnecessary pointing at fingers here. So let's continue the discussion. (And I'll try to reach the flow of the living thread)

[Nogrod]

My bedtime is approaching... And a terrible thought occured to me. So if Rune is not able to come back before the DL and I and the phantom disagree on whom to give the extra-vote, the draw will then mean no extra-vote to anyone?

Kuru, could you confirm that? (I'll PM that as well.)

It might not be that terrible toDay as we have little to go, but later in the game when it might be important - and we might actually know something (or have some good reasons to think something) it might be important.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't know who else, but could you give me a reason to believe she actually is the seer -

Well, as I said, she could easily be a WW, yes, but the fact that she seems to be something is why I don't want her dead. Plus, if she is something the real Seer would be attracted to her & out her anyway and keeping her alive yet under the gun may lead to telling clues as to her packmates.

Anyway, possible reasons she was the Seer from yesterday-

Originally Posted by Agan

I like Rikae and phantom and won't be voting for either today.

Perhaps that would be the dream duo? Both innocent.
Then she wasn't afraid to emphasize me today.

Originally Posted by Agan

but it saddens me that phants is gone.

And again...

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm quite positive phantom was innocent

So confirming her initial innocent dream.

And from today-

Originally Posted by Agan

First off I owe an apology to Lommy.

So she suspected her after yesterday but dreamed her innocent over night then.

Originally Posted by Agan

I've never played with Firefoot before so it feels daring to say this, but she feels quite innocent to me.

And her second dream was Firefoot and she found her innocent. I suspected FF as well so she makes sense as a dream.

So anyway, that's why she's a good Seer candidate. (But also a good WW candidate since a WW would want to pave for a false reveal to delay her lynching.)

But wow, her most recent post is crazy!

[the phantom]

Also, sadly Rikae will be passing me after another 8 posts.

I was hoping to be the posting leader in both threads!

[Nogrod]

I'm not having my eyes gleaming to get Aganzir lynched toDay. It could be another "saving private Agan" -train could be very informative to the Living thread (as it now seems she's gathering a lot of votes). And if she is the Seer, she'll call for the Ranger who would be stupid - without a reasonable-sounding counter-reveal - to ignore the call. So a decent amount of dreams would be saved anyway.

Your picks on her hints to her dreams are pretty decent indeed - although I'd not be surprised if you had that all planned beforehand (like Boro's FBI -thingy). Had I just found them myself I might have been impressed of my findings, but when they are coming from you whom I still do suspect before your status is established, then sorry, I need to take them with a pinch of salt just because I know you love exactly this kind of games and pre-planned stuff.

That said, I'm not sure if the possible failure from our part to make a difference of one vote toDay is anything really bad. But I would really like to know your alignment tp. With it a lot of things might become easier - fex. I'd be looking at Aganzir (and Boro) with a lot less suspicion were you established innocent (or "prey" as Kuru has decided to call us).

But whom to give the vote then? Let me think a moment... or let's discuss the options if either of you are around.

[the phantom]

On second thought seeing her list maybe Rikae wasn't her other dream but rather Legate with a Gifted role as I first thought?... I dunno...She's been consistently on both of their sides, yes?

But she has Lommy on her guilty list again even though she apologized. Weird. But she's been consistent enough on Ff and I... Bleh.

(Note: She just clarified that she never cleared Lommy, so maybe I need to look again?)

[Nogrod]

Btw. Aganzir's list (#346) doesn't quite fit with your idea tp.

I mean yeah, it shouldn't be one to one with her knowledge. It's understandable she'd need to make it not look like exactly the same she actually knows aka. she should bring in more people to the different categories, but if she was giving up non-list hints they should be consistent with her actual list - and at least Lommy is in a totally different place from your interpretation - so we have one dream missing? (I mean if she wanted to be consistent - which you'd need to be if you're wishing the ones coming after you're dead can rely on your points) If she wasn't the Seer that all would make sense?

Yeah, maybe she dreamt of Rune and couldn't then make anything of it toDay in her list (like she couldn't make anything of you tp as you're dead)? But it would be a coincidence indeed she dreamt of both people who got Nightkilled, especially when you tp thought it was a far fetched thing or a shot in the dark for the one wolf-pack to pick Rune - so she just somehow managed to make that very same very improbable choice?