Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I know I was one who said Legate, but now I'm thinking maybe we should make a list of everyone & what knowing that person's role would tell us. Scry the person with the biggest trail. Off the top of my head I feel like it's Legate, but I might be missing something.

Are you sure you are not the Seer? Upon reading Nog's post, I was thinking totally exactly the same.

Well, I'd look at it this way:

Rune Son of Bjarne - I agree checking him does not make much sense at this moment. Also, he has been killed fairly early, so one cannot also make much based on his associations with people.
Aganzir - likewise not much sense, I think we can assume she is the Hunter.
Lottie - also I daresay we can assume she is a Wolf.
Macalaure - I also think we can be fine with assuming he's a Wolf. If any other circumstances arise, he can be always checked later. But (and what I am about to say is a general point which I would like to underline as the guiding principle of our voting altogether) as of now, people on the Living thread are counting on him being a Wolf, so we won't be bringing any new information to them if we just confirm it. Of course, if we've been fooled, and he's not a Wolf, it would be a completely different matter, but I think so far by probability we should rather look at someone else.
Legate of Amon Lanc - obviously I consider it a waste personally, although if there are real doubts, so be it. But honestly, do you think it helps anyone (meaning, the Living, if we communicate it to them)? (And do you think the chance of me being a Wolf is really that big?) Anyway, thinking about that, we've just established Greenie is innocent. The worst thing that could happen would actually be if the people on the Living thread start assuming I am a Wolf, in that case, by all means check me. But we could wait with it until we know what their reactions are.
Nogrod - even though he would be one of those I could consider, he has the same problem as Rune - and he said it himself - that there is very little his alignment could tell anyone. I would be all for checking him, but he died so early that connections between him and others are not that many (even though, he hadn't been the most quiet player, so mayhaps...?)
Rikae - well. If you permit me, Rikae, you are such an enigma (that's a compliment) that I would be quite inclined to check you. I am not sure it's our priority though. Because if it just tells us you are prey, then well, nice, but didn't help. (Of course that's the case with everyone. I guess now we are just operating on the level of "which of the people we have here is the most likely to be a Wolf hiding amongst us".)
the phantom - could also suffer from the same problem as Rune and Nog, although I think he still must have the highest, or almost highest post count on the Living thread. So it might make sense to check him. Even though now he is very sensible and all, and I have no problem with believing him innocent. But again, it might really be helpful for the village.

So based on rational calculation, I would suggest possibly the phantom, or either Rikae or Nog. Bonus: based on gut feeling, on the other hand, I would even maybe rather check Rikae. Just for the peace of mind. But whatever. Yeah, probably Phantom, or eventually her, that would be my choices.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Greenie

By the way, is there an obvious reason why Mac and Lottie couldn't be packmates? I'm too lazy to reread.

I don't know about others, but I was thinking of how I went after Mac on Day 2 but was reluctant to vote him on Day 3,
making it look like I dreamed him innocent. I doubt Mac's pack would
have thought I was the seer.
And Lottie's pack would have been the most likely one to kill me as a potential seer, because of the way I went after her.

Rune: Died early and didn't leave much of a trail, mostly arguing about having a Day 1 lynch or not.

the phantom:
The fact that he's so determined not to be scryed almost makes me want to scry him.
However, there really isn't much his role would tell us. While alive, he talked mostly about game
mechanics and, while his ideas were controversial, he himself wasn't.
He did help organize the lynching of Nogrod but, as that lynch only really saved the hunter, we can't
conclude much from it.
As long as we're cautious not to allow him and Mac the chance to sway the vote together, his role doesn't matter much.

Legate:
Whether or not Legate is a wolf, it's quite possible there's a packmate of Lottie's among those he
called innocent.
Of course, it's also possible she killed him as a supposed seer who dreamt her
"rival wolf" Greenie, but I do think I'd be a more likely target for her pack.
Mac's pack could have killed me if it included Firefoot, or if they suspected I was a seer who'd dreamt
of Lottie, but considering the way I flip-flopped on Mac, that seems unlikely.
But at any rate, the biggest question about Legate isn't whether he's a wolf, but who killed him.
If he's a wolf we still won't know that, not knowing what pack he belonged to.

Mac:
If Mac is not a wolf, we know that Nerwen is bluffing or lying, but that doesn't matter much considering
that Lottie was a wolf and both Nerwen's accused wolves are dead.
We would know not to chase red herrings in the form of Mac's likely packmates (but are there any strong
candidates anyway?)

If Mac is a wolf, we'd proceed as we have been, pretty much.

Me:
Somebody else is probably better at figuring out what good knowing my role would do. I'm an ordo,
but if somebody can make a case that proving that would be useful, go ahead and scry me.
I can't see one, myself.

I think I'd like to give more consideration to Nog. Even though he died early, he was controversial
and, if he was a wolf, a packmate of his might have behaved in an incriminating fashion either
around the lynch, or knowing a wolf was dead.

[Rikae]

Oh, and you guys:

129 posts to go to surpass the living thread. Get on it! What's a party without music?

Here's a message for someone to take back to the living.

[Nogrod]

I've been involved with a totally another project this day but have managed to slip in every now and then to keep myself up to date. Now I'm off to prepare us some late-supper but will join the party then after for a while.

Bur just one supporting comment relating to what Legate just said (and what many of us have said): Rune is not only probably the least informative one of us to check (with me you still have the D1 wagon), but he has also been quite quiet lately which might also mean he's an ordo who just now has much more interesting things to do. I mean, if he were a wolf he'd probably show some more enthusiasm towards the game...

I see Rikae has also posted a list. Good.

I'll try to make one later on as well.

Now, kitchen calls!


Btw. did you read my suggestion from early toNight / late yesterDay - that if any of you have nice cross-tables (at least Rikae & the phantom have made arguments like "if x is a wolf s/he can't be that with y or z") could you share them with us, and what are they based on? I haven't had time or effrot to collect such a data and it would be really hard work to start gathering them now. But they could help us with no such data available to get a more clear picture of the situation (and if you let some links or hints as to where you have collected them, anyone could check them for our mutual benefit if it felt like it).

[Rikae]

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.

But I think you did something of the sort with your list already - pointing out possible scenarios and stuff in one collected post - which is good.

It would be nice to see even more collected effort to be sure, if you have something where to construct it from easily. I mean I'm not saying others should take huge undertakings while I just hang up with other things, but the idea was initially, that if you have some things ready at hand you could just pass to us - and maybe give them a second or thirtd thought yourselves while making a post on them?

Anyway, I'm off for a moment now...

[Macalaure]

I'm torn.

As much as I'd like to go "told you so!" on all of you, I would also like to actually learn something myself. Legate > Rikae > Nogrod > phantom would be my order, in that case.

Not like anybody would listen to me, of course.

[Rikae]

Oh, one thing:

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rikae

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

A potential minor hiccup: I have work very early tomorrow morning which means I need to go to sleep within an hour. So - any preferences? I'm leaning towards Legate or possibly Nog or Rikae.

[Rikae]

I'm fine with either Legate or Nog (and if you vote for me, I'll follow that vote, since we're better off with me as a known innocent than risking a tied vote and no scry at all).