Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Kath]

I am on a residential trip with no wifi access and limited signal!

Therefore I am simply going to vote. I will not be around for Nerwen to explain what she knows, so I am going take her list at face value and vote for the person at the top.

++Formendacil[/QUOTE]

My sincere apologies for non attendance. Bad timing.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Morm, I'm simply wondering out loud about the status of the Ranger last night and if we could learn anything certain from such info. If we can indeed pin the Lalaith-kill on Boro, which seems very reasonable at the moment, then it would be lovely to know if one of the packs has been eliminated.

But I don't see any sure way to get that info today.

In any case, are we going to arrange something similar to what happened yesterday, so we can get some info from the Dead?

For what it's worth, I'm also much concerned by Formendacil, so I approve of Kath's vote - random though it may have been.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[mormegil]

Yes and give two options per person. We could have the 3 known be separate if needed. Which it will likely need be. Certainly not 100% fool proof but worth the shot. It was nice to learn of Greene that way.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

[Formendacil]

Well, that was less to catch up on than I was expecting--I guess Monday is a busy day (and/or all the talkative people are over on the Dead Thread).

It seems that Boro has declined to establish or deny a connection to Nerwen's PM--fair enough, even if I'd have preferred at least a verbal "I'm not going to confirm or deny it."

Looking at the current List of the Living, here are my current impressions:

Definitely Innocent:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005

--I suppose the theoretical possibility exists that Sally is faking being the lover, but I don't see that this is at all likely unless the Lovers both died right away, in which case how would the wolf playing at it even know that?

Most Likely Innocent:
Boromir88
Nerwen

--It's possible Boro is not the Special Role, but that's not why I put him here. I'm willing to believe he is; my tiny hesitation is due more to the fact that I don't know if the Special Role is on the side of the Village. It keeps making me thinking Werebear more than any other existing role, with a few special twists to make up for the fact that the Bear has no team. I don't think it likely, but I do think it possible.

Nerwen's apparent innocence is, similarly, convincing but not definitive. Not knowing where her PM came from (something that she may be forbidden to reveal anyway or which may have come through the proxy of our late, beloved Kuru), it's not impossible that she IS a wolf AND has relayed all information about this PM in complete, transparent honesty. Again, though, the fact that her lycanthropy remains possible isn't sufficient reason to think that it is.

The Rest:
Eomer of the Rohirrim
McCaber
mormegil
Thinlómien
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen

--These are in order of most suspicious to least suspicious, but it's no more than a Hobbit's cubit between the first and last of them.

The frustrating thing is that we don't know how many wolves are left--let alone which packs. If we've actually eliminated an entire pack (hence the one death less), then we could have as few as one wolf in eight here. On the other hand, if both packs are alive and one simply failed (either via Ranger kill or by going for the same target) to get its victim, AND assuming that we've killed two wolves in Lottie and Mac, we could have as many as four wolves left--a 1 in 2 statistic out of these remaining eight.

That seems less likely, simply going by gut feeling. One thing I wonder about is the Ranger. If the Ranger is still alive, their self-revelation would give us a third Known Innocent AND a record of their protections/guesses. Which is not to say that I think the Ranger should out themself (especially if they think we still have something like 4 wolves abroad), but I'm wondering if we could examine our recent dead and find a Ranger candidate. If I understand the rules aright, they have to remain dead a complete Day (so anyone lynched yesterDay or killed last Night would be a candidate) and could return. Both of last night's kills, Lalaith and Firefoot don't seem completely implausible (Lottie does seem to be rather beyond the pale there). And, in any case, it's probably worth going over their posts again just in case there's something to be found that might suggest Giftedness--even in Lalaith's case, if Boro *IS* on our side, nothing yet suggests he's omniscient, and who knows if he might have coincided with a kill from a wolfpack.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure what to make of that from Form. I mean, there's no way a wolf has missed what's gone down today; but I guess evil-Form would make such an effort to paint himself as an ignorant innocent.

So is it genuine? Or a bold attempt at disguise?

[Thinlómien]

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...? what???

Form, what are you suggesting?

Say, the dead empower Kath, then Firefoot what?? Is one whose role is known by the dead? But is she innocent or guilty???

Heh. I actually got so caught up in lining up names alphabetically, I forgot about making anything actually WORK.

That said, I think it could be made to work. If we ask that the Dead confirm one of their number as known Wolf, we could potentially discover a third wolf (which tangentially makes me realise that Loslote was somehow left off my list. I guess only Sally gets left off--or should it be Boro, since he seems to have special knowledge).

Or is it better to discover a definitive innocent among the Dead? Depending on who it is--and I assume the Dead would have inquired about the most interesting names first--that might be more valuable for us in looking over the voting records.

[Thinlómien]

(yeah, that's how I feel like, not knowing anything and having to trust people with really weird reveals - and not really having the time to mull them over - and having probably been wrong about the three people I've suspected the most - Agan the Hunter, Sally the Lover and Boro the Itch Man /end rant)

So assuming no one who's done a reveal is lying and we can trust the dead and some common sense:

Alive Innocent
Sally
Nerwen
Boro
Lommy
Eomer
Shasta

Alive Unknown
Form
McCaber
morm
Nilp
Mith
Kath

Dead Innocent
Aganzir
Greenie
the phantom
Firefoot

Dead Unknown
Rikae
Nogrod
Rune
Lalaith
Legate

Dead Guilty
Mac
Lottie

The good thing is that if we've been doing badly this far (Lottie and Mac would be the only wolves we've got rid of), then we have a 2/3 chance of bagging a wolf toDay. That is of some comfort.

Personally, I'm the most worried about kawaii Nilp and McSneaky. Form and morm have seemed like their innocent selves throughout the game - and now Form is so confused I'm not sure he can be a wolf and morm has been helpfully sharp in a way that genuinely suggests an innocent trying to think things through. Mith and Kath? Not much data, but I kind of think both would be more involved as wolves...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm totally unsuited to such schemes, but:

So, the Dead will have found out about either: Phantom, Nogrod, Rune, Legate or Rikae. Not Mac and not Agan as that would be wasteful; hopefully not Phantom as we seem to know about him already, but the Dead were not to know that this info was forthcoming.

So that's 10 options to spread around 12 voting villagers. No problem. We even have two more spaces for wacky possibilities, like: empower X if you know Kuru is still alive and planning something devilish.

If we want ten-for-ten we could subtract Boro and Sally, our two "Known Roles" (well, more so than the rest--substitute Nerwen in place of one of them, if you prefer) and leave the ten votes for the ten unknowns. We could do a strict alphabetical correspondence.:

Aganzir..........................................E omer of the Rohirrim
A Little Green................................Formendacil
Firefoot.........................................K ath
Lalaith........................................... McCaber
Legate of Amon Lanc....................Mithalwen
Macalaure.....................................morm egil
Nogrod..........................................Ne rwen
Rikae............................................. Nilpaurion Felagund
Rune Son of Bjarne.......................Shastanis Althreduin
the phantom.................................Thinlómien
If his vote is for a known wolf.......Boromir88
If her vote is for a known wolf......satansaloser2005


A similar scheme (put the Living column in reverse alphabetical order, swap out Nerwen for Boro, etc) could easily be mocked up.

[Formendacil]

Starting a vote tally, because it's getting to be bedtime and I don't want to just throw away my vote.

Kath -> Formendacil
Thinlómien -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp


And, uh, that's it...

None of these options look great to me. Nilp is raising my suspicions, but the thrashings of a wolf accruing lynch votes look a lot like an Ordo trying to stave off village defeat. McCaber raises my suspicions by his quietness, but every WW game ever has a lurker who turns out to be innocent.

I still like Eomer, but there's no point turning this into a FOUR-way race.


X-ed since Eomer's vote. Nilp is now up by one.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Oh, I forgot one way to stave off accusations in this village.

I could reveal myself as a Gifted. No one would know, except the Gifted themselves. And if that Gifted is already Dead (and you wouldn't know that), then I could have you dancing in the palm of my hands. And even if they're alive, they'd have to reveal themselves to refute me, exposing them to all sorts of NIGHT problems.

...

...

...But no, I'm not doing that.

Hope you're still alive, real Gifted people. This one's for you.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If you trust our two reveals (Boro doesn't seem to be around) then don't vote me or McCaber. Lommy voted McCaber but obviously before Sally got here.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

If you trust our two reveals (Boro doesn't seem to be around) then don't vote me or McCaber. Lommy voted McCaber but obviously before Sally got here.

I still don't get it. I've missed some post where our Known Innocents said "these people aren't evil" and I'm clearly failing to understand how they would KNOW that. At this point I'd almost rather try to tie the lynching again since killing an innocent is likely to be more fatal than successfully killing a would would be helpful... but I don't see that going anywhere and now is the time for me to vote--before I fall asleep at the computer.

Apparently McCaber is out and Eomer is out... and while suspicious Nilp is the only currently-voted candidate left. The votes stand:

Kath -> Form
Lommy -> McCaber
Eomer -> Nilp
Shasta -> Nilp 2
Nilp -> Nilp 3

That's 5 votes... my vote makes 6... and Nerwen at least may not be timezone-appropriate before the deadline.

++mormegil

I don't really know if he's guilty--I'm barely on the cusp of thinking he is, but he isn't McCaber, he isn't Eomer, he isn't Nilp, and he isn't me--and a couple of people have wondered about him, so maybe I'm not off my rocker in wondering.

[satansaloser2005]

I mean, of the options that are currently available, I guess I find Nilp the most....ridiculous, basically?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I mean, of the options that are currently available, I guess I find Nilp the most....ridiculous, basically?

Any thoughts on Mith or Kath? More for tomorrow, really...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Any thoughts on Mith or Kath? More for tomorrow, really...

Suspicious and worryingly curious respectively. I'd be up for lynching Mith, I suppose? I don't know. I'm not into widening the options unless we can make it count.

[mormegil]

I don't know what to make of Nilp's self vote. It makes me almost want to believe him but if I feel that way I'm sure others do; so is it a way of self-preservation?

[Boromir88]

++Form

Just got in and caught up. His posts look the sketchiest today.

[Nerwen]

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

Missed that. She is doubled up with you so either way.

[mormegil]

++Nilp

I think he has bothered me for a while. His self vote almost changed my mind.

[Nerwen]

Now I'm just going to skim the thread before voting. One thing I'd like to suggest is that toMorrow we try to set up a way of asking about Living players? What do you think?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

May I suggest that it won't accomplish very much for the dead to give a vote to Lottie?

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ach, Lommy was sleepy when she made that list. It won't affect anything.