Middle-earth What-ifs

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I don't know if being "of impeccable Númenórean lineage" would be the distinguishing factor in an argument since this standard is applicable to many other Dúnedain in the North or South. The reason his son would probably be rejected too even though there was no legit heir in the South was because of their standards; a descendant of Anárion through the male line which they pointed out was practiced in Arnor too. Aranarth's mom was the daughter of Ondoher, not his son. Therefore he does not meet the standard of "this heritage is reckoned through the sons only". I do wonder why Arvedui would claim the crown of Gondor and then bring up how there was a standard that the eldest child whether man or woman could claim it. If he was using his wife to claim the crown he'd be shooting himself in the foot with this one since she would be the one who'd have the claim and not him.

I'm firmly of the opinion that this would have been a far more effective way to get Arvedui into Gondor. If Fíriel had come herself, acting of her own volition and for her own claim, citing the precedent of Númenorean law and basically daring them to deny her her birthright, I don't know that they could have done it. The Council probably would have realized that Arvedui would have some sway over the rule of Gondor, but there was the example of Herucalmo of Númenor, who was Consort to Tar-Vanimeldë, but functioned as the de facto ruler of Númenor while his wife still lived and then withheld the Sceptre from his son, calling himself Tar-Anducal until his death. The Council might have put a proviso that Arvedui was to remain a Prince of Arnor, and serving as the Prince/King-Consort of Gondor gave him no authority to rule.

But that's all conjecture. Yes, you're right. Fíriel had a better claim to the throne than did Arvedui, and using her claim to bolster his actually weakened her claim, in my opinion. I think if he had gone this route, he might have been able to unite the realms under his son.

[Belegorn]

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

I had an extensive discussion on another forum concerning how Arvedui might have become King of Gondor; I'll quote myself from that website...

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

I know this thread is pretty dead and I might get in trouble for Necromancy, but I feel I have something substantive to contribute. I believe that in such cases necromancy is permissible. If not, I apologize.

I think much of the analysis above is pretty spot on, especially the identification of Pelendur as the main obstacle to Arvedui's and Firiel's ascent as monarchs of Gondor. I think, however, one might also be concerned about Arvedui's lifespan. He made his claim on the crown in 1944, at the age of 80. In the years of his prime for a man of his line, certainly. However, let's examine a few facts...

Arvegil (1553 - 1743, died aged 190)

Arveleg II: (1633 - 1813, lived 180 years)

Araval: (1711 - 1891, lived 180 years)

Araphant: (1789 - 1964, lived 175 years)

Arvedui: (1864 - 1975, lived 111 years, but died of unnatural causes OTL)

The lifespans of even the Northern Kings had been decreasing ever since the time of Arvegil, and in the OTL, no King or Chieftain of the Dunedain reached the Age of 200 from Arveleg until Aragorn...

So, taking into account our POD, which I'm assuming is the decision to stay with the Lossoth until the spring rather than take the ship that subsequently sank, Arvedui lives on as King of Arthedain...

Now, Earnil II reigned until 2043, in which Arvedui, had he lived, would have been 179, and Earnur took the Sceptre. Earnur died only 7 years later, 2050, in which Arvedui would have been 186.

I bring this up because it seems that while this would not be out of the question for a man of Arvedui's lineage, it is longer than the previous three generations before him lived, with a generally decreasing lifespan both before and after.

I bring these points up because I believe them to be relevant. However, I am of the opinion that Malbeth's prophecy indicates that, had he decided not to take the ship that later sank and ended his life prematurely, Arvedui would have outlived the Kings Earnil II and Earnur.

Now, one additional problem with the survival of Arvedui is a possible butterflying away of Earnur's death. However, I don't think a man of Earnur's character could be persuaded to ignore the Witch-King's challenges by Arvedui, nor do I believe he'd even try to consult the Northern King. If the Steward Mardil couldn't convince him not to go, then I don't think Arvedui could or would have. In any case, I believe the prophecy would have necessitated the ending of the Line of Anarion (in the south) while Arvedui still lived, making an early end to Earnur's reign inevitable/necessary.

IOTL, Mardil Voronwe took up the rule of Gondor because there were no men of the line of Anarion left with an acceptable claim of descent. The Kingdom of Arthedain was gone, and Aranarth never pressed a claim on the Kingship of Gondor. However, had Arvedui survived, as King of Arthedain, married to a Princess of Gondor with a valid claim to rule as Queen in her own right, with no remaining claimants for the Stewards to put in their place, the Council of Gondor would have had no reasonable answer to a second claim on the Kingship (especially without the stubborn and haughty Pelendur still fighting the ascendancy of the Heirs of Isildur), thus, uniting the northern and southern Kingdoms of the Dunedain under one Crown, and fulfilling the prophecy that Arvedui would become the King of a great realm. His reign would likely have been short, and he would have probably been quickly succeeded by Aranarth, but the prophecy would have been fulfilled.

As for his new name, as prophecized by Malbeth, I imagine it would have been in a similar fashion to that of Aragorn II, when he took the name Elessar Telcontar as his regnal name. We would have seen some kind of entirely new name and possibly even a new house, to reflect the new dynasty, and the union of the lines of Isildur and Anarion into one crown, ruling all the Dunedain and their former territories.

Gondor and Arthedain's military forces would have easily effected military control over the former territory of Arnor, though with the depleted populations and collapsed governments of Rhudaur and Cardolan, I don't know that any coordinated action would be necessary.

If I remember correctly, the first ten ruling stewards presided over the Watchful Peace, with decreases activity from the enemies of the Dunedain and the Free Peoples in general.

This might also butterfly out of existence the Kingdom of Rohan, but who knows, that is approximately 500 years later. Butterflies would abound and who knows what kind of turns history would have taken?

[Belegorn]

One thing I will point out. This decrease in lifespan effected all the Dúnedain, even those in the South although at one point it seemed the South had the edge in longevity.

Tarondor b. 1577 lived for 221 years.
Telumehtur b. 1632 lived for 218 years
Narmacil ll b. 1684 lived for 172 years, died in battle against the Wainriders beyond Anduin.
Calimehtar b. 1736 lived for 200 years
Ondoher b. 1787 lived for 157 years, died in battle with both his sons against the Wainrider in a rout.
Eärnil ll b. 1883 lived for 160 years
Eärnur b. 1928 lived for 122 years, left the kingdom in the hands of the Stewards after taking up the Witch-king's challenge.

I agree with no legit heir in the South Arvedui could possibly have won over the Dúnedain in the South although they seemed to be slightly prejudiced against the Dúnedain in the North because of the events that had occured there. Eärnil ll did not hold the same view as the others.

"Eärnil was a wise man, and not arrogant, even if, as to most men in Gondor, the realm in Arthedain seemed a small thing, for all the lineage of its lords." [Appendix A: Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]

What is somewhat confounding is that even 200 years later there were still Dúnedain living to 150 years of age who were not even of the royal line. So I wonder why the last 2 kings, well Eärnil to be exact, only lived to be 160. Three hundred fifty-two years later Hador dies at the age of 150.

If Arvedui had succeeded, however, perhaps Eärnur lives or not. I do not think Arvedui would allow him to accept the challenge of the Witch-king anyways. I think Arvedui had a better shot to take the crown when there were no heirs of Anárion left to take that crown than when there were still claimants around to take up the mantle. If this was successful the North would have already been lost and there are a great many who look down on the North because of their weakness already. The Stewards it seems had hardened their hearts against their kin in the North, but at the same time it is said of the Dúnedain in the South, "many in Gondor still believed that a king would indeed return in some time to come; and some remembered the ancient line of the North, which it was rumoured still lived on in the shadows." [Appendix A: The Stewards] Arvedui would not have ful-filled the prophecy if this were the case since the North was already sacked. Perhaps they could rebuild but Sauron and his minions were still around.

[denethorthefirst]

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time. The stewards during the watchful Peace have, in general, a lifespan between circa 107 (Dior) to 130 years (Belegorn). Hadors son Barahir follows this trend with a lifespan of 122 years. After the end of the watchful Peace the lifespan begins to further decrease, Denethor I lives for only 102 years (a new low, maybe the shock of Saurons return and the sudden invasion of Ithilien shortened his life?). Without going into a lot of statistics that would only bore everyone: interestingly the kings of Gondor have, at least for the first 1800 years or so of the third Age, a remarkably longer lifespan than the Kings of Arnor and later Arthedain, only the later King Earnil has a comparable relatively short lifespan of "only" 160 years ... very strange. What could be the reasons for this difference? Its not a fluke, its consistent: all the kings of Gondor (except for the last two and those slain in battle) live for circa 20-40 years longer than their northern counterparts.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time.

I'd agree that this was probably the high mark for nobles not of the Royal line. I tried looking around but I'm not sure I can find anything about the nobles' life expectancy in the last 400 years of the rule of the kings. Hurin was the Steward of Minardil for 14 years [1621-1634 until the king died] and he would have been late into his life at this point. Perhaps the span for the nobles was generally from 100 to 150 years. Over 200 years later Peneldur [1879-1998] lived for 119 years.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I'd agree that this was probably the high mark for nobles not of the Royal line. I tried looking around but I'm not sure I can find anything about the nobles' life expectancy in the last 400 years of the rule of the kings. Hurin was the Steward of Minardil for 14 years [1621-1634 until the king died] and he would have been late into his life at this point. Perhaps the span for the nobles was generally from 100 to 150 years. Over 200 years later Peneldur [1879-1998] lived for 119 years.

Looking at The Peoples of Middle-earth, specifically at The House of Dol Amroth, might give us a better idea of the general life expectancy of the nobility of late Gondor...

Galador lived from 2004-2129 (125). His son lived to be 143, the high point in the line which ranged between 134 and 120 or until the 10th Prince, who lived from 2463-2582 (119). From there the lifespan drops slowly, but mostly steadily (barring two deaths in battle), until Adrahil, father of Imrahil, first Prince to die of natural causes under the age of 100 (he was 93). Imrahil died at 99, his son at 100, and his son at 98. So, we might say that, around the time of the War of the Ring, Gondorian nobles of relatively pure heritage could expect to live around 100 years, or perhaps shortly less. Between the 27th and 29th centuries, I'd guess it was somewhere between 120 and 100. Before then, at least stretching back to the early 21st century, it was probably somewhere between 150 and 120.

It seems that the lifespan of the line of Dol Amroth declined just a bit more slowly than that of the Line of Hurin, though to be more sure I'd want to do a side-by-side comparison and that would take just a bit longer. I know that the Lines of Dol Amroth and of Hurin married into one another, at least late in their history. If I remember correctly, Denethor's wife was the sister of Imrahil.

EDIT: I'm sorry, you were looking for lifespans during the rule of the Kings. Haha, I'm afraid I goofed there.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

One thing I will point out. This decrease in lifespan effected all the Dúnedain, even those in the South although at one point it seemed the South had the edge in longevity.

Tarondor b. 1577 lived for 221 years.
Telumehtur b. 1632 lived for 218 years
Narmacil ll b. 1684 lived for 172 years, died in battle against the Wainriders beyond Anduin.
Calimehtar b. 1736 lived for 200 years
Ondoher b. 1787 lived for 157 years, died in battle with both his sons against the Wainrider in a rout.
Eärnil ll b. 1883 lived for 160 years
Eärnur b. 1928 lived for 122 years, left the kingdom in the hands of the Stewards after taking up the Witch-king's challenge.

I agree with no legit heir in the South Arvedui could possibly have won over the Dúnedain in the South although they seemed to be slightly prejudiced against the Dúnedain in the North because of the events that had occured there. Eärnil ll did not hold the same view as the others.

"Eärnil was a wise man, and not arrogant, even if, as to most men in Gondor, the realm in Arthedain seemed a small thing, for all the lineage of its lords." [Appendix A: Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]

What is somewhat confounding is that even 200 years later there were still Dúnedain living to 150 years of age who were not even of the royal line. So I wonder why the last 2 kings, well Eärnil to be exact, only lived to be 160. Three hundred fifty-two years later Hador dies at the age of 150.

That certainly is an interesting point you bring up, and counter to my preconceptions about the two royal lines, though I had never actually taken the time to compare them in this way.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

If Arvedui had succeeded, however, perhaps Eärnur lives or not. I do not think Arvedui would allow him to accept the challenge of the Witch-king anyways.

Well, in the above quote I was really referring to Arvedui being refused the first time, as per OTL, then surviving his time in the Forodwaith by not taking the ship of Círdan, which subsequently sank, which I believe may have been part of the "less hopeful choice" that he had to make. Only then would he have stuck around as King of Arthedain/Arnor long enough to outlive Ëarnil and Ëarnur.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I think Arvedui had a better shot to take the crown when there were no heirs of Anárion left to take that crown than when there were still claimants around to take up the mantle. If this was successful the North would have already been lost and there are a great many who look down on the North because of their weakness already. The Stewards it seems had hardened their hearts against their kin in the North, but at the same time it is said of the Dúnedain in the South, "many in Gondor still believed that a king would indeed return in some time to come; and some remembered the ancient line of the North, which it was rumoured still lived on in the shadows." [Appendix A: The Stewards] Arvedui would not have ful-filled the prophecy if this were the case since the North was already sacked. Perhaps they could rebuild but Sauron and his minions were still around.

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of it that way, but I don't think him becoming King after the fall of Arthedain precludes his fulfillment of the prophecy, which reads thus.

"Arvedui you shall call him, for he will be the last in Arthedain. Though a choice will come to the Dúnedain, and if they take the one that seems less hopeful, then your son will change his name and become king of a great realm. If not, then much sorrow and many lives of men shall pass, until the Dúnedain arise and are united again."
― Appendix A

So, here, he remains the last King in Arthedain. I admit, it does seem that the less hopeful choice does, in fact, seem to come to the Dunedain as a whole (indicating the Council of Gondor representing the Dunedain of the south) and not to Arvedui specifically, so that might be a hole in my theory, but then, it isn't conclusive, and Arvedui wasn't the only Dunadan in the Forodwaith that escaped Arthedain's destruction. Arthedain falls, but then if Aragorn fulfilled the last part of the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain thousands of years after Arthedain and Arnor had fallen, I don't see why Arvedui couldnt have fulfilled the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain (whether or not the kingdom survived, a number of its people did) a few decades later. As King of Gondor, Arvedui (or whatever his new name would have been after he was named King of Gondor after the death of Ëarnur) could have repopulated Arnor with colonists from the south, to augment the remaining northern population. Sure, there was some prejudice against the north, but I'm sure if he looked through the kingdom he could have found a decently sized group to act as a core population, and would send forth the necessary armies to protect them as well.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time. The stewards during the watchful Peace have, in general, a lifespan between circa 107 (Dior) to 130 years (Belegorn). Hadors son Barahir follows this trend with a lifespan of 122 years. After the end of the watchful Peace the lifespan begins to further decrease, Denethor I lives for only 102 years (a new low, maybe the shock of Saurons return and the sudden invasion of Ithilien shortened his life?). Without going into a lot of statistics that would only bore everyone: interestingly the kings of Gondor have, at least for the first 1800 years or so of the third Age, a remarkably longer lifespan than the Kings of Arnor and later Arthedain, only the later King Earnil has a comparable relatively short lifespan of "only" 160 years ... very strange. What could be the reasons for this difference? Its not a fluke, its consistent: all the kings of Gondor (except for the last two and those slain in battle) live for circa 20-40 years longer than their northern counterparts.

The only thing I can think of is that whatever grace the Valar bestowed upon the House of Elendil seems to have dwindled more quickly in the north, evidenced not only by shorter lifespans, but also their more ruinous infighting, etc... than in the south. It's not really an answer, and even I don't know if I buy it, but it's all that I can think of at the moment. I'm going to spend some time with the lists of Kings and come back with a more thought out response.

[Faramir Jones]

It was suggested in The Tale of Years that a reason why Arvedui's claim was rejected was because he was the last of a line of losers, who allowed Arnor to be fragmented into three, with only one part surviving, and now under threat from the Witch-king. Why should he be made King of Gondor, with the resulting risk of diverting resources from there to prop up a 'failing state'?

Later, Arthedain was destroyed by the Witch-king, although at the price of the latter's defeat. Arvedui's son and later descendants took the title of 'Chieftain', laying aside their royal status, there being no kingdom left to be king of.

This made later Gondorians, including the Stewards, uninterested in trying to find out if any descendants of Isildur, through Arevdui, still existed, let alone making an offer of the crown of Gondor. The earlier prejudice would be magnified, in terms of not wanting any scarce Gondorian resources being diverted to resurrect a 'failed state'.

This shows the huge obstacles Aragorn II had to climb to be considered a serious candidate for King of Gondor. What I feel was crucial was his ability to defeat Gondor's enemies, as Eärnil did centuries before.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Faramir Jones

This made later Gondorians, including the Stewards, uninterested in trying to find out if any descendants of Isildur, through Arevdui, still existed, let alone making an offer of the crown of Gondor. The earlier prejudice would be magnified, in terms of not wanting any scarce Gondorian resources being diverted to resurrect a 'failed state'.

This shows the huge obstacles Aragorn II had to climb to be considered a serious candidate for King of Gondor. What I feel was crucial was his ability to defeat Gondor's enemies, as Eärnil did centuries before.

I wonder if the prejudice dated to an extent back to the early days of the kingdoms, given that Meneldil "was in fact-well pleased by the departure of Isildur and his sons, and hoped that affairs in the North would keep them long occupied." ("The Disaster of the Gladden Fields" Note 10)

The thought of Meneldil suggests to me that there was perhaps a quite ancient disposition in Gondor against too close a relationship with Arnor and a desire for independence from the authority of the line of the High King of the Dúnedain.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

The only thing I can think of is that whatever grace the Valar bestowed upon the House of Elendil seems to have dwindled more quickly in the north, evidenced not only by shorter lifespans, but also their more ruinous infighting, etc... than in the south. It's not really an answer, and even I don't know if I buy it, but it's all that I can think of at the moment. I'm going to spend some time with the lists of Kings and come back with a more thought out response.

The only things I can associate with the dwindling lifespan of the Dúnedain were the fear of death, "their years lessened as their fears of death grew" [Akallabêth], the loss of Númenor, and Middle-earth itself. This did not effect the Faithful so much as it had the King's Men, but they too were not free of the shadow. It continued in Gondor as Faramir explained to the Hobbits:

Originally Posted by The Two Towers; ch. 5; The Window on the West

Death was ever present, because the Númenóreans still, as they had in their old kingdom, and so lost it, hungered after endless life unchanging. Kings made tombs more splendid than houses of the living, and counted old names in the rolls of their descent dearer than the names of their sons. Childless lords sat in aged halls musing on heraldry; in secret chambers withered men compounded strong elixers, or in high cold towers asked questions of the stars. And the last king of the line of Anárion had no heir.

Here Faramir mentions another factor in the diminishment of the Dúnedain and that is their paltry effort at producing heirs. They had few if any children, "the high men of the South married late, and their children were few" [Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]. They had 3 childless kings, Falastur, Narmacil l, and Eärnur.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

Well, in the above quote I was really referring to Arvedui being refused the first time, as per OTL, then surviving his time in the Forodwaith by not taking the ship of Círdan, which subsequently sank, which I believe may have been part of the "less hopeful choice" that he had to make. Only then would he have stuck around as King of Arthedain/Arnor long enough to outlive Ëarnil and Ëarnur.

If things generally went as was and did not veer off course save his not drowning Arvedui would not have been king of any kingdom since Eärnil II could not send help until too late. So he may have outlived them, but he'd have been of "a ragged house" that was "bereft of lordship and dignity" as Denethor said to Gandalf. haha

Then again, as I said before, perhaps this would have been as good an opportunity as any to bring Gondor back under the rule of the Heirs of Isildur through his son with Fíriel by propping her up as the sole survivor of the former king. For himself, I think it'd have been terribly hard.

[Faramir Jones]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

If things generally went as was and did not veer off course save his not drowning Arvedui would not have been king of any kingdom since Eärnil II could not send help until too late. So he may have outlived them, but he'd have been of "a ragged house" that was "bereft of lordship and dignity" as Denethor said to Gandalf. haha

Then again, as I said before, perhaps this would have been as good an opportunity as any to bring Gondor back under the rule of the Heirs of Isildur through his son with Fíriel by propping her up as the sole survivor of the former king. For himself, I think it'd have been terribly hard.

My own opinion about what might have happened had Arvedui had not drowned is that his chances (or his son's) for the kingship of Gondor would have been even less than before.

Quite apart from the fact that there were descendants of Meneldil still around, in the shape of Eärnil II and his son, Arvedui would have been seen as a greater loser, unable to defend his realm from invaders. This was the fundamental test of any monarch, indeed of anyone holding authority in a state under any form of government: Can you protect your people? The answer in Arvedui's case, compared to Eärnil 's, would seem to be 'No'.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of it that way, but I don't think him becoming King after the fall of Arthedain precludes his fulfillment of the prophecy, which reads thus.

You may be right that both kingdoms need not have been intact. Perhaps just a pooling together of them as a united front would be enough and they could rebuild later. There'd probably be a greater watch on the lands with the extra users of the Palantir and they might not have been reluctant to use them as Eärnil II was due to the loss of one of them to the enemy.

[denethorthefirst]

Another curious thing: the lifespans of the stewards and the princes of dol amroth fluctuate rather heavily, you have someone like Dior living only 107 years but then, even relatively late in the third age Belecthor lives 120 years, whereas the lifespan of the Kings only ever goes downward. I guess that's Tolkiens way of showing that the gift of the Valar has become unpredictable: in the late third age you can no longer rely on a long life just because you're of numenorean descent, it depends on genetics, the specific person and a bit of luck.

On a side note: it's my impression that with the departure of the king the political system of Gondor also changed significantly. I always had the impression that the Gondor of the Kings was modeled after the Roman/Byzantine Empire: a powerful central government, an efficient bureaucracy, a standing army, provinces with appointed governors, and so on. My guess is that the departure of the King weakened the central government and in a way jump started a "feudalization" process that fractured the once unified country.
Galador founded Dol Amroth and achieved Semi-Independence in the 21. century sometime after Earnur left and a lot of the other Provinces followed and achieved autonomy. (But did the House of Dol Amroth rule Belfalas/Dor-en-Ernil before the foundation of Dol Amroth or were they simply a very powerful local family co-existing with (or maybe occupying the position of) the official royal governor of Belfalas? A lot of this is speculation and conjecture because, sadly, Tolkien did not write all that much about the political aspects of Middle-Earth. It's also possible that it was a gradual process and the feudalization started even earlier with the Kinstrife and the Great Plague and that the collapse of the state during these catastrophes enabled the local noble houses rise to power)
The stewards of the late third age only seem to have direct control over Anorien and Ithilien, the other fiefs seem more or less autonomous and independent in all but name.