Where do elves get metal?

[Marwhini]

Just as a Start:

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/gl...predation.html

The Lotka-Volterra Equations detail a rather detailed relationship between types of predation, of both predator and prey-populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations


And aside from the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations, there is the issue of Mutualism between a predator and prey population when modeling the population sizes and relationships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual...tical_modeling

In the latter example, this is where the two populations share one or more traits, or functions in the environment.

All of these are dependent upon a Carrying Capacity of the Environment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity

...and the Lotka-Volterra Equations show the interrelationships of these Carrying Capacities.

Also important is the "Impact of Human Activity on the Environment" described by Dr. Paul Erlich's I = PAT equations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT

In terms of Middle-earth, this is a very important term, as that of Humanity and Elves (or Hobbits) needs to be greater than that of Orcs, lest you wind up with a world where the Orcs quickly destroy the Carrying Capacity of the entire "planet" (or habitable regions of the world with which we are concerned).


I = PAT

is:

Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology

In Middle-earth, this impact is nearly non-existent save for in the regions of:

• The Shire.
•*Dale/Erebor
•*Mordor
•*Gondor
•*Rohan
•*And likely in Harad and Rhûn as well, since we are told these areas are fairly highly populated.

But given that 'A' and 'T' are so low, the Impact isn't very great, and thus the effect upon Carrying Capacity isn't hugely affected (which is not to say that it is not affected at all - over time the Impact can be cumulative).

I=PAT, though, can really only be significantly considered once you have an idea of GDP of an area.

This can be estimated in Middle-earth based upon Medieval Data about what was required for a typical person to live, and then estimating the populations of the regions based upon the population models created by the Lotka-Volterra models

Do you need anything else?

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.



MB

[Marwhini]

And, as a point about some of the assumptions of the Lotka-Volterra Models.

It is possible to including Initial Conditions for different assumptions.

Such as that the Prey Population does not have an exponential Population Growth, and instead has some other function that covers population growth.

These starting conditions affect the total population sizes of both the Prey and Predators.

In the Competitive and Mutual models, we can also show relationships where both populations prey upon each other (many Aquatic populations are like this, as are human populations, to which the models also apply).

Edit: Parasitic relationships can be different than Predator-Prey, depending upon the type of Parasite. For instance Mosquitos can have populations that are hundreds of billions the size of their host populations.

And it may be the case that we need to build an entirely new model for the relationship between Orcs and Humans than the existing Predator-Prey model.

But the existing Mutualistic or Competitive Models seem to be flexible enough to deal with the relationship we see between Orc and Human in Middle-earth, where the two Populations are Mutually dependent upon a single set of resources, Yet compete for those resources, while Humanity largely falls Prey to Orcs (a relationship that does not exist in reverse - Humans, Hobbits, nor Elves in Middle-earth will capture Orcs to use either as forced labor, or as a source of food itself).

This is an area where we have yet only looked at a very generalized relationship, as it is a long way down our list of priorities in getting an Operationalized Middle-earth functioning as a Model.

MB

[skip spence]

Marwhini,

While I remain sympathetic of your quest for a unified theory to explain Arda and Middle Earth I hope you realize that the result can only be another work of fiction, unlike say the mathematics of Pythagoras, or the physics of Newton or Einstein's special theory of relativity.

Much like you, many of us here enjoy speculation in how Middle Earth 'worked'. The first and foremost Tolkien scholar and son, Christopher, shared this interest and thanks to his work we have a lot of intriguing material apart from his father's published work. It's fascinating to look at the "white spots" of the maps and imagine what you might find there.

In our real world scholars and scientists, kings and commoners used to do they same. They knew there had to be "something" out there beyond their knowledge, they wanted to learn and understand, but in lack of solid data they used their imagination to fill the unknown. Often they populated the imaginary lands with strange legendary beasts, like unicorns, pygmees, satyrs, dragons etc of course overseen by the mighty Gods. But slowly and surely the white spots of this world have been charted and now we know much more about its nature and natural laws, enough to disprove most of the historical misconceptions.

But unlike the real world we live in Middle Earth is fictional. The white spots on the maps of Middle Earth are unknown, but unlike in the real world there is really nothing there to be found.

Except in the mind and imagination of the reader. A fun pass-time I think, and one that JRRT embraced fully, but please don't forget that your "unified theory of Arda" can never have any relevance in relation to JRRT's actual creation. It is not natural science, only a product of your own imagination and if that is to be of any interest to other readers I suggest that you approach it in a more humble and, well, reasonable manner.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Marwhini,

While I remain sympathetic of your quest for a unified theory to explain Arda and Middle Earth I hope you realize that the result can only be another work of fiction, unlike say the mathematics of Pythagoras, or the physics of Newton or Einstein's special theory of relativity.

Of course it would be a fiction, because it is being used to describe things that cannot exist in this universe.

But that does not negate that this was a singular goal of Tolkien's, nor that such a thing is possible.

It would not be as "complete" as a completely Unified Theory (as we have no means to test it).

But Tolkien was pretty clear about Middle-earth having operational Sciences that could basically describe its workings, even if he could not.


In Letters #153 to Peter Hastings (draft), Tolkien says:

I suppose that actually the chief difficulties I have involved myself in are scientific and biological.

Here he is referring specifically to how Elves are "Immortal," yet essentially the same biological Species as Humans (and thus capable of breeding with them to produce fertile offspring).

– which worry me just as much as the theological and metaphysical (though you do not seem to mind them too much). Elves and Men are evidentially in biological terms one race, or they could not breed and produce fertile offspring –*even as a rare event : there are 2 cases only in my legends of such unions, and they are merged in the descendants of Eärendil. But since some have held that the rate of longevity is a biological characteristic, within the limits of variation, you could not have Elves in a sense 'immortal' –*not eternal, but not dying by 'old age' –*and Men metal, more or less as they now seem to be in the Primary World –*and yet sufficiently akin. I might answer that this 'biology' is only a theory, and that modern 'gerontology', or whatever they call it, finds 'aging' rather more mysterious, and less clearly inevitable in bodies of human structure. But I should actually answer: I do not care. This is a biological dictum of my imaginary world. It is only (as yet) an incomplete imagined world, a rudimentary 'secondary'; but if it pleased the Creator to give it (in a corrected form) Reality on any plane, then you would just have to enter it and begin studying its different biology, that is all.

As with most of the Sciences here in our world, what Tolkien called the "Primary World," we don't actually need to have direct access to something to derive from it scientific facts about it.

Generally, observed behavior is enough, given the breadth of our current physical knowledge, to begin to understand its physical structure and operation.

We need only the same things for Middle-earth, fictional or no, to get an idea of how it must operate, given what we know about it, and about physics (and thus chemistry and biology, etc....), whether it is "Fictional" or not.

If, in a book, we observe someone fall roughly 20 feet, and the book says that it took roughly half a second to fall, we can infer that gravity in the world described by that book is roughly the same as in ours.

If it is observed to be different, then we can calculate it with some precision based upon how it is described.

Much like you, many of us here enjoy speculation in how Middle Earth 'worked'. The first and foremost Tolkien scholar and son, Christopher, shared this interest and thanks to his work we have a lot of intriguing material apart from his father's published work. It's fascinating to look at the "white spots" of the maps and imagine what you might find there.

In our real world scholars and scientists, kings and commoners used to do they same. They knew there had to be "something" out there beyond their knowledge, they wanted to learn and understand, but in lack of solid data they used their imagination to fill the unknown. Often they populated the imaginary lands with strange legendary beasts, like unicorns, pygmees, satyrs, dragons etc of course overseen by the mighty Gods. But slowly and surely the white spots of this world have been charted and now we know much more about its nature and natural laws, enough to disprove most of the historical misconceptions.

But unlike the real world we live in Middle Earth is fictional. The white spots on the maps of Middle Earth are unknown, but unlike in the real world there is really nothing there to be found.

Except in the mind and imagination of the reader. A fun pass-time I think, and one that JRRT embraced fully, but please don't forget that your "unified theory of Arda" can never have any relevance in relation to JRRT's actual creation. It is not natural science, only a product of your own imagination and if that is to be of any interest to other readers I suggest that you approach it in a more humble and, well, reasonable manner.

The "It's just fiction" deflection?

If that is the case, then any speculation regarding Middle-earth is just as misguided.

One of the blurbs in the Jacket cover of the first edition of The Lord of the Rings described it as "First Rate Science Fiction."

"Fantasy" is just a derivative of "Science Fiction." It is just proposing different laws of the Sciences.

And by the quote above, of Tolkien's... The world functions by the rules of the "Natural Sciences" as much as does ours, only with deviations from them, which are just as knowable (within the evidence we have) as they are in our world.

MB

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.

*Blinks*

*Blinks again*

Ummm....

And now for something completely different:

Excerpt from Monty Python's Two Towers --

Chapter II: The Rally of Rohan

By now they had made their way into the realm of Rohan, the verdant, rolling land of revisionist Anglo-Saxon horsemen who would have defeated William the Bastard and his nasty Normans at Hastings if, by Tolkien's Francophobic approximation, King Harold and his housecarls had had a standing cavalry; thus, the Anglo-Saxon aristocracy would have remained in England to subjugate, overtax and generally make miserable the lives of the peasantry, rather than have foreigners do the same more efficiently. In any case, the Three Hunters crested a hill and below them lay a green valley where they espied the first sign of trouble. Hundreds of protesters were milling about carrying placards and signs (most of which had X and O symbols, or spatters of paint mimicking writing, as very few folks were literate at the time). The mob was listening to the exhortations of a rather unkempt demagogue trying to rally the masses with his shrill oratory. Stealthily, Aragorn, Legolas and Gimli scrambled down the goat paths that scarred the hillside, and then mingled with the crowd in order to hear what the fuss was all about.

"A spectre is haunting Dunland," the shaggy speaker shouted through a megaphone of sheepskin, "the spectre of Rohirrism!"

"Wha's a spectre?" One old gaffer asked a shrewish hag standing next to him.

" 'Ow should I know?" The shrew replied. "Just quit yer yammerin' an' wave yer sign! I've 'eard they'll be 'andin' out prizes for the most enthusiastic demonstra'ors."

"All the old powers, that of Gondor and Rohan, have entered into an unholy alliance to quench the bright flame of Liberty lit for the Dunlendish people," the orator bellowed with contempt. "Where is the party that would oppose these reactionary adversaries?"

"Yes! Yes! The party!" several oblivious protesters cried. "Where is the party?"

"To this end, the Executive Administrators of the Council of Propaganda and Pasturage, duly endowed with plenipotentiary powers by the General Secretary for Bureacratic Affairs, were sanctioned to form the first Revolutionary Constitutional Congress of DUFF, the Dunland United Freedom Fighters. And by the gracious invitation of Saruman, both of them gathered at Orthanc and completed a Manifesto!"

"Wha's a manifesto?" the geezer wheezed. "Is tha' an Eye-talian dish? Sort 'o' like Manicotti, but wi' pesto?

"I should 'ope so," the hag replied, "I'm starvin'!"

"The history of society has been one of class struggle!"

"Ye got 'at roight, guv'nor," a shepherd shouted. "I aint ne'er made it past first grade, wha' wi' conjugatin' verbs 'n' danglin' me par'iciple at recess!"

"Freeman and slave, lord and serf, in other words, oppressor and oppressed, have continually opposed one another in a nearly uninterrupted fight that each time has ended badly for we, the mute masses. There has been no revolutionary reconstitution of society at large for us - on the contrary, it usually resulted in the utter victory of them what has, as opposed to them what has not. Now Dunland sits alone in chains of degradation; but, at the turn of fortune's wheel, we can become the oppressors and the hated Forgoil of Rohan the oppressed! We can become that which we hate!"

"This is, like, so-o-o-o boring!" a teenage girl whined.

"Like, we should have so gone to the mall," her BFF chimed in.

"I wish they'd serve the manifesto," the gaffer grumbled. "Me tummy's rumblin'."

"To that end, we shall join with Saruman the White, our sorcerous friend and benefactor, who has offered us his wizardly assistance in ridding Dunland of the hated horsemasters. Join us now! Join us in this righteous rebellion! We may be casting off one master for another even more tyrannical despot; but he has such a pleasant, fatherly way of making our gullibility seem noble - almost intelligent. Besides, we shall get a brief glimmer of freedom before our hopes are ruthlessly crushed, which is all we peasants could possibly expect at this juncture in history, given the inadequate means of mass communication only made possible by the printing press, which will not be available, technologically speaking, until the time of Herr Gutenberg. But enough of anachronistic platitudes, what say you, people of Dunland? Shall we fight for freedom, however short-lived?"

There was a prolonged, dumb silence punctuated by sneezing, rheumy wheezing, lip smacking and tubercular coughs. The speaker sighed in defeat. Despite his best efforts and his Ciceronian dialectical rhetoric, he felt he was losing the mob. And so, as with all demagogues past and present, he decided to plumb the depths and cater to the crowd's basest emotions. "Of course, there will be other benefits…" he said with a polished smile.

"Wha' benefits?" the old hag shouted.

"Yes, yes, what's in it for me?" A one-eyed, legless beggar cried as he shifted nervously on his stumps. "Please, I can't stand the suspense!"

"And when do we get our manifesto?" the grizzled geezer grumped. "Will it be at th' party you was mentionin' earlier?"

…"There will be rape and pillage."

And there was a great cheer that arose from the throng, and they immediately fell into beating each other with cudgels, staffs and canes.

"NO, NO, NO!" the orator shrieked through his megaphone. "I was referring to raping and pillaging the people of Rohan!"

"O-o-o-oh!" the bloodied crowd cried in unison and stopped their infighting, except for one stout shepherd who punched the shrewish hag again for good measure.

"Now, I want the folks to my left to start right in on the raping, and the ones on my right to go off and pillage."

"Well, why can't we just do both?" the shepherd shouted in dismay, his staff clinched tightly in his left hand and his other staff now gripped firmly in his right.

The speaker gave the suggestion some thought and then finally shrugged. "Sure, why not!"

The mob screamed in a blood-curdling frenzy and scattered off in all directions to practice their raping and pillaging skills, leaving the Three Hunters alone in the valley.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

*Blinks*

*Blinks again*

Ummm....

And now for something completely different:

Excerpt from Monty Python's Two Towers --

...

Haha lovely stuff Morth! I have missed this place.

As for Marwhini, just do what you wanna do I guess. *shrugs*

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Haha lovely stuff Morth! I have missed this place.

As for Marwhini, just do what you wanna do I guess. *shrugs*

That is my plan.

I hadn't much hope that anyone would understand the issues I am trying to address to begin with.

It would be nice to have a bit more help in creating a detailed Foundation for the Operation of Middle-earth than the current Four of us (and I am currently the only one with much time to spend on it, while the fake bone in my leg grows into the real one).

And when I can regularly walk again, it will be back to studying Intestinal Villi and Oligosaccharides and Glycoproteins.

It is difficult to find people with a strong enough Science background to begin with, much less a deal of Interdisciplinary Study as well.

And while that isn't necessary to Enjoy Tolkien's work, it is important in figuring out how Middle-earth would function were it an actual place (what would necessarily be True if Middle-earth existed as described).

We have worked out the basic Philosophical/Theological/Metaphysical Structures that would be True if Middle-earth was an Instantiation of some sort (i.e. "It existed"). But getting the varying specifics is a tedious lot of work.

Fortunately, having the basic Foundation allows for much of the rest to simply fall out of the workings. It is exploring these for any more complex interactions or Contradictions that is the hard part (not being able to actually set up functional experiments is a bit of a draw-back).

Eventually Wolfram Research will have a World Modeling (other than Mathematica and Wolfram|Alpha - which could be used if I wanted to spend 5 to 10 years hard-coding the physics) tool that will allow for simulating such experiments. But Stephan Wolfram has said they are about 5 years from having the basic structure set up, much less an API that would allow for the addition of other Physics to operate within the Simulations and Models as well.

MB

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

And while that isn't necessary to Enjoy Tolkien's work, it is important in figuring out how Middle-earth would function were it an actual place (what would necessarily be True if Middle-earth existed as described).

I'm all for theorizing about Middle-earth matters Tolkien took for granted, as long as those posited ideas are in line with what he say about his world.

At the end of the day though, Middle-earth is a fictional world very similar to our own. It's different enough though, with the open presence of the supernatural, that purely scientific analysis of it is, in my opinion, a lost cause. And dear Gandalf had that saying about not breaking a thing to find out what it is...

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm all for theorizing about Middle-earth matters Tolkien took for granted, as long as those posited ideas are in line with what he say about his world.

That is kind of my point

At the end of the day though, Middle-earth is a fictional world very similar to our own. It's different enough though, with the open presence of the supernatural, that purely scientific analysis of it is, in my opinion, a lost cause. And dear Gandalf had that saying about not breaking a thing to find out what it is...

Fictional or not, the "Supernatural" is explainable given the assumptions Tolkien makes about the world.

Nor does it make it a lost cause. That it is similar to our own world provides a starting point.

Thus the quote I provided earlier from Tolkien regarding Biology within Middle-earth.

Nor does it need to be "Broken" to find out what it is.

No more than one needs to "break" an Exoplanet to discover what the Atmosphere is composed of, nor to discover its mass, even though the Closest of the Exoplanets yet discovered is roughly a dozen Light Years away (Gliese 15Ab - Gl 15Ab: 11.7LY - and most are hundreds of LY from Earth).

I get the feeling people are actually afraid to ask these questions.

That the "Supernatural" exists within Middle-earth, as I have pointed out elsewhere, simply means that something other than Baryonic Matter exists within Middle-earth; that there exists some-thing... some "stuff" that is not composed of normal molecules that we find in our Universe, yet is just as capable of affecting normal "molecular matter" (Baryonic Matter) as is molecular matter.

Anyone familiar with René Descartes, Augustine, or with the Early Gnostic Christians will be able to provide an answer for what this "Stuff" might be (To say nothing of the Manichaeans, Bogomils, Cathars, etc.).

From that point, it just becomes a matter of looking at the different ways in which this stuff manifests, and interacts with regular matter.

And, we know that it is just as convertible to energy as is Matter (See the Fire Gandalf creates on the side the Redhorn Stair in the snow). We know from this same incident that this conversion to energy somehow is observable by others. And we know that it is not simply limited to this one instance.

That gives quite a few observations from which to derive possible mechanisms, given what we do know about physics, the Enthalpy/Gibbs Free Energy of wet Wood, etc. for just that one instance.

We also have things such as Glorfindel's appearance at the Bruinen, Gandalf's Lightning on Feathertop/Amon Sûl, The Balrog (and Gandalf's Battle with it - twice), The flaming "Mane" of the Balrog, The "Shadow" of the Balrog (and possible "wings"), a litany of things within Lórien, a litany of things concerning Saruman (or Sauron, for that matter), Gandalf rescuing Faramir (twice), the operation of the Palantíri, the disintegration of Saruman's body, The "Bodies" of the Nazgûl, . . . and I am certain others as well... And that is JUST from The Lord of the Rings.

If we look in the other works, we can find similar things with which there are known components.

And, as Tolkien said.... The "Sciences" exist within Middle-earth. You just need to account for what you would observe within it, and the study of it is no less "worthwhile" than it would be for our world, only the products/discoveries would apply only to Middle-earth.

Some of it might be "conjecture" in that we cannot formally test it.

But that is no different than much of our own universe (we cannot test Quantum Theory, either, yet we know without a doubt that the products of Quantum Mechanics produce predictable, reliable results that are more precise than many things we can test), much of which is "Conjecture."

But that doesn't stop the study or examination of it.

MB

[Nerwen]

Marhwini, as I said what you are doing is fine if you treat it as a game or a curiosity or an academic exercise, understanding that there can never be a true, final answer in the absence of an underlying reality. Even if you do manage to come up with an internally consistant model, you can't test it against a reality that isn't there.

That's the difference between Middle-earth and an exoplanet.

Plus, a lot of your theorising is of the card-castle variety- a fantastical, elaborate and ingenious structure built on a foundation so flimsy it would topple at a breath of air. I know it doesn't look that way to you, but that's because, in my opinion, you're not sufficiently objective about your own ideas to either critique them properly yourself or allow others to do so.

Which brings me to this:

It would be nice to have a bit more help in creating a detailed Foundation for the Operation of Middle-earth than the current Four of us (and I am currently the only one with much time to spend on it, while the fake bone in my leg grows into the real one).

And when I can regularly walk again, it will be back to studying Intestinal Villi and Oligosaccharides and Glycoproteins.

It is difficult to find people with a strong enough Science background to begin with, much less a deal of Interdisciplinary Study as well.

What's your intention in all this? *Are* you asking for our help or input? Are you actually interested in sharing ideas? Because honestly, you just seem to work from the basic assumption that you already possess Total Knowledge on All Subjects Whatever, and that the rest of us are Ignorant Peasants who should be Grateful that you Condescend to Enlighten us with your Vast Ineffable Wisdom. <--Yes, I'm mocking your posting style, but I'm doing it in order to help you see why you're getting increasingly negative responses. That's not what you want, right?

That said, please do understand that I bear you no ill-will, that I am very sorry to hear about your serious injury and that I wish you a speedy recovery.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Marhwini, as I said what you are doing is fine if you treat it as a game or a curiosity or an academic exercise, understanding that there can never be a true, final answer in the absence of an underlying reality. Even if you do manage to come up with an internally consistant model, you can't test it against a reality that isn't there.

Yes and no.

We have no ABSOLUTE Foundational Theory for the universe in which we inhabit now.

And much of the Theory upon which it rests is wholly untestable unless we find some way to get outside of it.

But this does not mean that we do not have a whole system of Philosophy, Metaphysics, and Sciences that support the ability to make consistent predictions about our reality, or to understand how almost everything within our universe works that is not either:

• Very Massive.
•*Very Fast (and thus very massive).
• or Very Small.

Once you get into these realms, the bottom (or top) races away from you.

But within the Mesosphere (the "Middle World"), you have the Life we see around us, and a System of Physics, Chemistry, and Biology (and Genetics, Social Sciences, History, etc.) that grows directly out of these.

And out of the Reductionistic Sciences grow the Systems Sciences.

These, in our universe are based upon what is known as "Monistic Materialism."

There is a small clustering of other Philosophical designations that also include the basic Sciences we see in our world, and the predictions and observations that are accounted for by these Sciences.


But within Middle-earth.... Monistic Materialism isn't enough.

There is Something else.... Mainly because Tolkien was a Catholic, and like a good Catholic, he believes in God, Angels, Saints, Demons, The Devil (Tolkien was a Pre-Vatican II Catholic. The Devil wasn't some metaphorical or allegorical entity - How many people know that this is one of the reasons Tolkien hated Allegory so much? You have to go to CS Lewis to discover this, though), Souls, Heaven, and Hell (among other things). But Tolkien's beliefs are not a necessary component to creating a world in which property dualism is true. Anyone can create one.

Tolkien's beliefs are important because they are largely reflected in his creation of Middle-earth.

And... Some account for HOW a "Soul" WORKS needs to be accounted for. Because we see that the Fëa (what Tolkien called the "Souls" of things in Middle-earth) has a PHYSICAL EFFECT upon the world.

And when you have a physical effect upon the world, that means that whatever it is that Tolkien is calling "The Soul/Fëa" is affecting the molecules, or "Matter" that is in Middle-earth.

In fact, we can even calculate the bare minimal interaction of this effect.

Gandalf lights a bundle of wood on the side of Caradhras.

Lighting Wood on Fire takes Energy.

We can calculate EXACTLY how much energy if we know what kind of wood it is, and an approximate energy given just a list of possible wood types they might have had available in Alpine Foothills (Pine, Cedar, Spruce, Aspen, Larch, Birch, Yew, etc.).

Wood burning is a chemical reaction. It is the sugars in the wood (Cellulose, Sucrose, and Fructose, all of which are combinations of Glucose) oxidizing.

In fact, we have the formula:

C6H12O6 + 6(O2) → 6(CO2) + 6(H2O) + Heat + Light

Technically the formula for the Cellulose is:

2(C6H10O5)_n + 11(O2) → 6(CO2) + 10(H2O)

But the final results are fairly the same, and there is a LOT of math coming up

First Gandalf has to raise the temperature of the wood he is going to light from roughly 0ºC to 500ºC (the ignition temperature for cellulose). We can calculate that amount of energy with great specificity if we wanted to get down to actually looking at what it takes to light wet-frozen wood down to the conditions of how much water it has absorbed per cubic volume, how it was carried, etc.

But we can estimate the amount of energy to a very high degree of confidence just with some rough guesses.


The Energy to raise the Temperature of the Wood from 0ºC to 500ºC, is easily computed for 1kg of wood.

This is a simple equation: Q = cmΔT

Q is the Heat Added
c is the Specific Heat of the Substance (for the Sugars in the wood burning, it is 218.7 J/K•mol (joules per ºKelvin times moles))
m is the Mass of substance (guessing about 1kg would be needed to create enough energy to keep the entire thing burning)
ΔT is the change in temperate celsius.


So, for getting the temperature raised to 500ºC, which is needed to even complete the above Gibbs Free Energy calculation, you need to have:

Q = (218.7J/ºK•mol)(1kg)(500ºC - 0ºC)

Convert ºC to ºK, so that our Temperature will cancel in the equation (Simply add 273.15 to ºC to get ºK):

Q = (218.7J/ºK•mol)(1kg)(773.15ºK)

Now cancel the mass (convert 1kg of wood to mols of Glucose - To get the grams per mol of Glucose: C (12) * 6 + H (1) * 12 + O (16) * 6 = 174g/mol or 1mol/174g of Glucose, and Wood is roughly 80% Cellulose, so 800/174≈4.6mol)
and cancel like terms

This gives us:

Q = (218.7J)(4.6)(773.15)

Or.

Q = 775.315kJ

That's a LOT of freaking energy that had to come from someplace to just raise the temperature of the wood, to say nothing of getting it lit.

For getting it Lit, that is essentially it's Heat of Enthalpy (Gibb's Free Energy):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibbs_free_energy

http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/wo...eat-d_372.html

Burning wood is an Exothermic Reaction.

Yet it requires an "Activation Energy/Enthalpy" to begin the reaction.

For Sugar (Glucose - the stuff in wood that is reacting), that is -2805kJ/mol.

<<Edit>>: I forgot the link to the ΔH (Heat of Combustion) of Cellulose:

https://www.google.com/search?client...mbustion+sugar

<</edit>>

Continuing....

Since we are talking about LIGHTING the fire, that "-2805kJ/mol" is how much you have to dump into the wood to get it lit (Or, rather... It takes 2,805 kiloJoules/Mol just to get the reaction started).

We saw above that 1kg of wood is basically 4.6mols of Glucose.

So that is:

2805(4.6)kJoules

Or 12,903 kiloJoules.

So....

We now have Gandalf producing roughly 13,678kJ to light a fire.

That's a pretty significant amount of energy.

We can go even further with this to give that a mass-equivalent with Einstein's formulas...

That's the difference between Middle-earth and an exoplanet.

That isn't much of a difference.

We know that Energy had to come from somewhere.

Even saying "Magic" does nothing to answer the question. All it does is NOT answer the question, but defiantly refuses to even address the question.

Plus, a lot of your theorising is of the card-castle variety- a fantastical, elaborate and ingenious structure built on a foundation so flimsy it would topple at a breath of air. I know it doesn't look that way to you, but that's because, in my opinion, you're not sufficiently objective about your own ideas to either critique them properly yourself or allow others to do so.

Which brings me to this:

So be my guest to point out how Gandalf, or anyone, can light a fire without introducing some form of energy into the equation?

We know that Gandalf's energy he produces isn't from a source we would call "Material" (even though ultimately this is what it is. At this point it is just playing with definitions), but rather from someTHING ELSE. Tolkien calls it the "Fëa."

Gandalf somehow turns his Fëa into Physical Energy (and we see this in more additional instances than I could rattle off here without writing an actual book - not that I nearly haven't already).

What's your intention in all this? *Are* you asking for our help or input? Are you actually interested in sharing ideas? Because honestly, you just seem to work from the basic assumption that you already possess Total Knowledge on All Subjects Whatever, and that the rest of us are Ignorant Peasants who should be Grateful that you Condescend to Enlighten us with your Vast Ineffable Wisdom. <--Yes, I'm mocking your posting style, but I'm doing it in order to help you see why you're getting increasingly negative responses. That's not what you want, right?

If you demonstrate an understanding of the concepts.... Then yeah... Help would be good.

And... the "Total Knowledge...."

Nope...

But one needn't have total knowledge of a subject to recognize a wrong answer.

You do not need to know Ordinary Differential Equations to know that the Answer to:

dx/dt = x - 1

ISN'T: "Horse"



In the Sciences, and most of Academia, that is called "Not even wrong."

A Wrong answer would be something like:

"5" or "x = 1"
(the actual answer is x(t) = c e^t + 1).

And if I come off a little weird here, it might be because many of the responses I am seeing are looking to me like someone has responded with "Horse" to many of the posts I have made.

That isn't saying that "Horse" isn't the right response to something that you are thinking that I said.... But it isn't really responding to the underlying foundation of the claims I have made.

It tends to make me wonder what people's definitions of "Metaphysics" are.

And, yes... I am socially Clumsy.... I tend to be used to working with Academics and people in the Sciences (or Social Sciences - less so).

I am trying to figure out what might be missing from this explanation to illuminate it a bit better..... But I seem to have had poor luck in that regard.

And Fiction or No, Tolkien worked to try to discover the rules by which his creation would work (again: p. x of Morgoth's Ring) so that the things that occurred in Middle-earth would:

1) Have a REASON that they worked (that is to say: HOW they functioned)
2) Did not contradict themselves or other aspects of his world.

That this is a Fictional World actually aids in accomplishing this, because we can postulate rules that don't exist in this world. But the trick is to make them consistent with what we DO KNOW EXISTS (either for Our Universe, or for Middle-earth, which uses the same Physical Template, over which additional assumptions have been Layered by Tolkien.... Of course, this isn't that hard - especially with Google, these days).

We don't need an experiment, because we can dictate outcomes that align with what we do know to be true, plus what NEEDS to be True (within Middle-earth) for some event, action, or item to exist, or operate/function.

That said, please do understand that I bear you no ill-will, that I am very sorry to hear about your serious injury and that I wish you a speedy recovery.

Thank you, it is no fun to have 1-1/2 legs.

MB

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

Just as a Start:

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/gl...predation.html

The Lotka-Volterra Equations detail a rather detailed relationship between types of predation, of both predator and prey-populations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations


And aside from the Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations, there is the issue of Mutualism between a predator and prey population when modeling the population sizes and relationships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual...tical_modeling

In the latter example, this is where the two populations share one or more traits, or functions in the environment.

All of these are dependent upon a Carrying Capacity of the Environment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity

...and the Lotka-Volterra Equations show the interrelationships of these Carrying Capacities.

Also important is the "Impact of Human Activity on the Environment" described by Dr. Paul Erlich's I = PAT equations:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT

In terms of Middle-earth, this is a very important term, as that of Humanity and Elves (or Hobbits) needs to be greater than that of Orcs, lest you wind up with a world where the Orcs quickly destroy the Carrying Capacity of the entire "planet" (or habitable regions of the world with which we are concerned).


I = PAT

is:

Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology

In Middle-earth, this impact is nearly non-existent save for in the regions of:

• The Shire.
•*Dale/Erebor
•*Mordor
•*Gondor
•*Rohan
•*And likely in Harad and Rhûn as well, since we are told these areas are fairly highly populated.

But given that 'A' and 'T' are so low, the Impact isn't very great, and thus the effect upon Carrying Capacity isn't hugely affected (which is not to say that it is not affected at all - over time the Impact can be cumulative).

I=PAT, though, can really only be significantly considered once you have an idea of GDP of an area.

This can be estimated in Middle-earth based upon Medieval Data about what was required for a typical person to live, and then estimating the populations of the regions based upon the population models created by the Lotka-Volterra models

Do you need anything else?

If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate.



MB

Thank you for elaborating, but as I said, Marhwini, I'm afraid all you've got there is assumption and conjecture. Equations tell you nothing if you have no numbers to plug into them in the first place.

And no of course I don't have any Foundational Postulates or Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates. C'mon, mate, you are taking yourself, and the subject, far too seriously.

X'd with Marhwini.

[Nerwen]

Marhwini, speculation about Middle-earth is not misguided- it's what the site's for!

Confusing your speculations with fact is very misguided indeed.

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Marhwini, speculation about Middle-earth is not misguided- it's what the site's for!

Confusing your speculations with fact is very misguided indeed.

Magic talking troll purses are evidence of sophisticated voice recognition security devices indicative of troll's highly advanced software developments in the late 3rd Age. It is believed that descendents of trolls eventually created the internet.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

Magic talking troll purses are evidence of sophisticated voice recognition security devices indicative of troll's highly advanced software developments in the late 3rd Age. It is believed that descendents of trolls eventually created the internet.

What was that about Trolls?

It's pretty easy to mock something that you don't understand (or are trying very hard to dismiss, and thus not understand).

Because if you did understand what I had proposed, you'd understand what Talking Purses for Trolls were in terms of The Hobbit (or at least the options available for what was going on with the Trolls).


MB

[Morthoron]

Originally Posted by Marwhini

What was that about Trolls?

It's pretty easy to mock something that you don't understand (or are trying very hard to dismiss, and thus not understand).

Because if you did understand what I had proposed, you'd understand what Talking Purses for Trolls were in terms of The Hobbit (or at least the options available for what was going on with the Trolls).
MB

I am aware that a talking purse is a folkloric motif Tolkien inserted to add whimsy (complete with a lowbrow accent) to a scene. I am also aware it played no part cosmologically, ontologically or allegorically to any larger, integrated system of science Tolkien was allegedly contemplating in an effort to make his story 'whole'.

I also know that the statement:

"If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate."

is perhaps the single most pompously sententious sentence ever typed on any Middle-earth forum since the World Wide Web was first developed by descendants of Shelob and Bert the Troll's great-great-great grand nephew, Timmy.

This is the second time you've indicated that I "don't understand" the speculative palaver you're shoveling; on the contrary, I know conjecture when I see it, even when it is couched in rococo verbosity, and more so when these proclamations from the mount are offered in episodic sermons for we lesser mortals.

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

I am aware that a talking purse is a folkloric motif Tolkien inserted to add whimsy (complete with a lowbrow accent) to a scene. I am also aware it played no part cosmologically, ontologically or allegorically to any larger, integrated system of science Tolkien was allegedly contemplating in an effort to make his story 'whole'.

I also know that the statement:

"If you have your own Foundational Postulates and Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates, please feel free to elaborate."

is perhaps the single most pompously sententious sentence ever typed on any Middle-earth forum since the World Wide Web was first developed by descendants of Shelob and Bert the Troll's great-great-great grand nephew, Timmy.

This is the second time you've indicated that I "don't understand" the speculative palaver you're shoveling; on the contrary, I know conjecture when I see it, even when it is couched in rococo verbosity, and more so when these proclamations from the mount are offered in episodic sermons for we lesser mortals.

And I'll say it a third time:

If you don't understand the point of what I have been talking about, then I don't suspect you ever well.

Nor do I suspect that you will understand a great deal of what Tolkien was trying to do in his later works, either.

Because what I am doing is a continuation of what he was doing: Looking for a Coherent Foundation for his world.

Brushing it off a "Fiction" is more than a little missing the point. There is a Logical Consistency that Tolkien was trying to obtain that was more than just Logical Validity, but was Logically Sound as well, within Middle-earth.

And that might very well be a pompous statement I made.

But it is a direct paraphrase of a Quote of Tolkien's, as to what he was trying to achieve from the years following the Completion of The Lord of the Rings until his death.

Tolkien's world had rules. Like ours. And they are not arbitrary rules. They abide by Sciences just like our world does.

He said so. MANY, MANY TIMES.

And just like I do not need to be ON an Exoplanet to begin studying its composition:

http://seagerexoplanets.mit.edu/research.htm

I don't need to be IN Middle-earth to discover most of these rules (if not all of them).

Nor does anyone else.

But the fact that I seem to be the only person (here, at least, as I have worked with at least three other people who worked at the same thing) interested in exploring what they might be is more than a little surprising to me.

That people seem to think that the events in Middle-earth (even if fictional) are simply an arbitrary arrangement is puzzling.


MB

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

It is believed that descendents of trolls eventually created the internet.

Trolls certainly seem to be the ones who use it the most...

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Marhwini, speculation about Middle-earth is not misguided- it's what the site's for!

Confusing your speculations with fact is very misguided indeed.

I am not confusing them for fact.

I am simply pointing out that a means of deriving answers for Middle-earth that do not produce contradictions exists.

And that this seems to be what Tolkien was trying to achieve.

That he could not do so does not mean that it isn't possible.

MB

[Marwhini]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thank you for elaborating, but as I said, Marhwini, I'm afraid all you've got there is assumption and conjecture. Equations tell you nothing if you have no numbers to plug into them in the first place.

And no of course I don't have any Foundational Postulates or Coherent Metaphysical and Theological Systems upon which Middle-earth operates. C'mon, mate, you are taking yourself, and the subject, far too seriously.

X'd with Marhwini.

We have numbers to plug into them (We have Tolkien's estimates for a population of Hobbiton, Gondor, and Rohan; and we have even more precise numbers given in the sizes of the military forces for Gondor and Rohan, which have very specific ratios for an Army:Population for any given period of time - just as a start).

At the very least those are some pretty good estimates.

And we have other estimates we can derive from the size and distances of various settlements.

And there are reasons for "taking this too seriously" (as you put it) that have to do with modeling it as an operational virtual world.

That is more than just turning it into a game (which isn't our intention).

And to do that, you need to have an idea of how things work.

I am taking it no less seriously than did Prof. Tolkien.

MB