Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

In the light of the new Day, one free of the clouds of despair, this does strike me as suspicious - why would you immediately balk at the idea that the Herbalist and the village should plot together unless that makes your job, as a wolf, that much harder? This kind of plan makes it almost impossible for wolves to false reveal as afflicted by the black breath, which makes it much, much more difficult for the wolves' kills to stick. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kuruwolf panicking a little when he realized how much harder the game would be if we did implement that kind of plan in the event of a false reveal.

Edit: xed with Kuru and with our dear moddess

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Now, over the past NIGHT I have had a re-think and to some extent I have kind of changed my mind on the matter. At the very least we should discuss the possibilities further.

However, I think it more important at the moment to state my belief that people who have the Black Breath must indicate so. Otherwise there could potentially be ambiguity as far as lynches vs. Black Breath deaths and that is something the Ward must avoid. We need as many threads to follow here as possible.

Now, this obviously opens the door for imposters, but I think we have a good Herbalist in our midst and the rest of us can certainly weigh in on who we think is more trustworthy.

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Simple, I was concerned yesterday with the wolves being able to vote together as a block to direct treatment away from ailing ordos, thereby whittling down our numbers to reach their target on DAY SIX. I didn't want to mention it yesterDAY on the off chance that the wolves wouldn't be able to think of it in time.

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Well, I'm still not totally sold on the idea. We need to talk about the potential hiccups a bit more before implementing.

I also want to hasten to add before I must step away from the computer for some time my belief that the Herbalist's identity must stay as close to an absolute secret as possible. No hints, no nothing. Not unless things are just absolutely desperate.

I realize that may seem counter-intuitive to the overall drive for maximizing our information, and I will admit that to some extent it is, but I believe that survival of the maximum number of Ward inmates is critical to our success and the Herbalist has the most power in preventing deaths.

Regarding a matter which is now of great interest to me- I think it needs to be pointed out that the Herbalist can't save everyone. We don't (I think) know how many "saves" he or she gets, but given how small the village is, I'd say no more than two or three- and it seems one has been used. Thus, it's not a simple matter of "which one to save" in the case of competing reveals, as by then the Herbalist might no longer have the option at all, or might want to reserve it for the end game.

[Nerwen]

And now back to our usual programme.

Aaaiieee! Woe is me, for doom has come upon me! Woe, for the fiends who walk among us have brought me dreams of blackest despair! All is lost! All must perish!

[Nerwen]

Further (dark, despairing) thoughts.

WHY MEEEEE? WHYYYYYYY?

No seriously, why? If I were a wolf, there's people I'd have targeted first- I won't say who they are at this point, of course.

WHAT DID I DOOOOO?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ok, I guess it wouldn't hurt for the would-be afflicted to out themselves (cue Legate-180™.

Welcome to the club.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Thank you, Legate for keeping your word. You are clearly a cut above most legislative representatives throughout history!

You're certainly welcome. Maybe I should have done a career in politics, after all.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

And also, imposterdom bears great risks for the wolves as well.

That is the main thing that makes me think it's a good idea if Blackbreathed people make their condition known. It's a very risky thing for the WWs to do so.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I also thought that yesterDAY the Herbalist probably already had enough to go on, and as it turned out I was right.

Quite a supposition!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Oh, actually, that makes a lot more sense. I had meant that we would only tell the Herbalist what to do in the case that we had two competing reveals - namely, we would tell the Herbalist which of the two reveals to protect, so that we could learn the roles of both. I didn't mean that we would tell the Herbalist what to do if we didn't have competing reveals, and I can see how you wouldn't have liked that suggestion.

How do we 'learn the roles of both'?

And we have Nerwen, 'afflicted', then better, then relapsing? Also, if the Herbalist was indeed responsible for her protection, then xe has a quandary toNight whether to see to her again.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well this is certainly a much more positive Day start than one would think. In this light, the possibilities to "wait it out" seem just that much better.

Which brings me back to the question we had on the Day before. On personal level, I would prefer an "active" game, but I am still wondering whether, under the circumstances (we just got a Day extra, basically) "waiting it out" isn't a better strategy. Of course, the problem with the WWs being able to kill the Gifteds and winning that way still stands. On the other hand, if they are reduced to one kill per Night, and higher number of people to choose from, their chances are thinning considerably. I am not the one for statistics, in fact I plainly dislike such "probability" calculations because real world doesn't operate that way, but still it is clear to me that less dead people = more chances for the WWs to pick a wrong kill. Also, less chance to accidentally lynch a Gifted.

They already only have one kill per Night. The other kill is ours, i.e. the lynch (unless, of course, a wolf became representative- and a wolf could subvert any general strategy). Your way, the wolves can kill us freely, while we have *no* chance to kill *any* wolves.

And that also, incidentally, makes me think that the "waiting out" approach would force the WWs to fight on the defensive, so to say. They would be (well, I think they already are) forced to be pro-active, which means that they would have to e.g. exactly try to be impostors, try to push people towards something, simply, put themselves in danger.

Why? We're not even really looking for them, in this scenario. All they have to do is keep killing us and hope to hit the gifteds- and gifteds are rather prone to inadvertent "tells".

It would be a "strategic" game for the village, rather than "tactical", so to say. Like I am not saying we should not lynch anyone, even toDay. Like I said, from the "playing" perspective, I would prefer that (as in, more interesting), plus there is still the fact that we pick what is our "win condition" the same way as the WWs do. But generally, we don't really learn anything from the deaths (lynches), and so on... so... well, what do you people think?

What I said yesterDay: we should exercise the no-lynch option if we simply have no idea, but we do our best to hunt wolves.

Note also that in your scenario the number of wolves vs innocents *certainly* increases (rather than possibly, as in a normal game), making it ever easier for them to control the vote- and there may well come a point where a wolf-rep could safely lynch at will.

Thiis a potential problem whatever we do, but it definitely happens if no wolves die.

(Of course, nothing prevents us from discussing potential suspects and in the end decide that we don't want to lynch anyone toDay after all, either. Actually that might be preferable. But whatever.)

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

As I said, I think this decision of whether or not to lynch should be on a Day by Day basis rather than an over-arching strategy for the whole game.
Edit: x'd with Zil & Boro.

[Boromir88]

Legate, Lommy...why would you have gone with Inzil yesterday, if we had to make a lynch?