Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it's worth talking about which win condition we want to fulfill.

From the admin thread -

The Ward is evacuated safely under two conditions:
1. All conspirators are eliminated before reinforcements arrive.
2. Either the bard or the herbalist is still alive when reinforcements arrive, and the population of innocent souls in the Ward either outnumbers or equals that of the conspirators.

Now, the game ends on Day 6. We aren't going to get a lynch that day, but conversely, the person whom the conspirators demoralize the Night before won't have had time to die. This means, in game terms, that we have five lynches to play with.

Now, we've already given up two of those with our no-lynch plan the past two days. In order to fulfill the first win condition, we'd have to be right each time we lynch, the next three days. That's certainly something we can try for, if we think we can pull it off, but it might be worth considering the second condition.

There are nine people alive - it's currently a 6/3 split in our favor. By tomorrow, Day 4, (if we no-lynch) it'll be 5/3 (assuming no Herbalist save). If we no-lynch again, on Day 5 (the final day) it'll be 4/3. Someone will likely die that night (all of this is assuming no more Gifted saves), but 3/3 is still equal; provided either the Herbalist or the Bard is still alive, we'll win.

I'm not sure it's the spirit of the game to never lynch anyone, but I do think it's an option that should be discussed. Anyone can check my math in case I'm wrong.