Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here. And to be perfectly frank, I trust Kuru about as far as I can throw him (hint: not far). I'll reply to his points in #225 first -

Post 185 - Says the Herbalist might only have one save and seems...unduly happy about this for an ordo.

I still believe this, for the record. I'll explain below. Also, you said yesterDay that you were suspicious of me for making this comment because it was "overly pessimistic". You can't have it both ways.

Post 190 - Still defends Inzil rather strenuously.

I didn't think he was evil. I'll be the first to admit I've had more innocent-reads than guilty-reads this game - Inzil was one of them. As Legate has said today, I only quasi-voted for Inzil over Lalaith because I tend to have a stronger innocent-read on her. Could I be wrong? Of course I could be - anyone could. I don't think I am, though.

Post 194 - This is the post that gives me the strongest impression that he is not paying attention to the thread. He somehow managed to miss my Post 166 which from visual style alone is one of the most noticeable posts in the thread. Not actually reading the thread is a potential wolfish tell because wolves can subconsciously not read the thread because they don't need to. They already know who is guilty.

Also, at that stage, no-lynch was detrimental to the Ward because we couldn't win that way at that point.

I already admitted that the McCaber modfire is what threw off my calculations. Honestly, I put that scenario together during the Night. This is the only game we've ever played where innocents can be certain of surviving the Night, and I couldn't be here during the proper Day, so I took advantage. Also, it's easy to scroll past things when you're playing on mobile.

Post 197 - He says he doesn't really suspect anybody. Says with almost a "ho-hum" that he will take a look at Lommy and Lalaith.

I didn't, at the time. Like I already said, the first two lazy days played havoc with my Werewolf radar. I didn't really suspect either Lommy or Lalaith, and neither had said overly much in any case (I know, pot meet kettle) - it wasn't until the very end of the day yesterDay that I began to suspect Lommy.

Post 198 - Suspicious of Legate for no other reason than it would be really cleverly evil of Legate to be evil in this game. Still defending Inzil.

Defending Inzil isn't suspicious unless you know for a fact he's evil - which you can't, unless you're evil yourself. Odd, that. In any case, Legate is scary when left unlooked at and I had to narrow it down to three.

Post 207 - Why does he write disparagingly about the Ward behaving sensibly?

Cause it's boring. No one's denying it was the sensible option - you'll notice I voted for Lottie in the end. But Lottie's been rep every day and I'm playing this game to have fun.

Post 212 - Suddenly says there might be an outside shot at Inzil being a wolf...but why at that point all of a sudden when Inzil had been deeply suspected from the beginning?

Already explained this. The quasi-voting had given every appearance of coming down to Inzil and Lalaith - of the two, I was more confident in Lalaith being innocent.

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Now then. Why's Kuru a wolf? Well, it's actually fairly devious.

Firstly, let's examine the Herbalist. I believe the Herbalist had one save. The reason for this is slightly meta, but I think it's fairly strong - if the Herbalist had more than one save, it becomes nearly impossible for the wolves to win in this setup. I don't think Sally would do that. As already has been established, the wolves only get 5 kills this game. Combine that with the delayed kill (establishing cleared innocents every day), the ability to no-lynch (denying the wolves possible mislynches), and an Herbalist with two saves, and you end up with the wolves only having three chances to take down the Bard and Herbalist (and that's not even factoring in possible Bard saves). The wolves' other option is to outnumber the village, but the same limiting factors apply to that scenario as well. It's doable, but only just. The setup makes much more sense, in my opinion, if the Herbalist can only save once.

In either case, the wolves need mislynches in order to win. Reporting someone to the guards is a much better method of killing than demoralization (which clears an innocent every day unless counterclaimed). Look at the numbers (the ones Kuru is so fond of crunching ) - even having "missed" two kills, we're still in a possible 4v3 situation today if Inzil was indeed innocent. All the wolves need is a single innocent vote to go their way and they've got a majority.

What I think happened is this. The wolves deliberately targeted no-one two Nights ago. Kuru then claimed to be demoralized - no one counterclaimed him, because the wolves didn't actually target anyone. When he (obviously) didn't die toDay, well, that must have been the Herbalist's second save, right? Presto! Cleared innocent Kuru.

And Boro, who I think must be a wolf based on process of elimination, started the day by suggesting Kuru be representative, which leads back to the "single innocent vote" above. He's voted Lottie by now, of course, after being called on it.