Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I happened to be awake for the DL toNight, but I am heading to sleep in a second. I can just as well post when I am here, however.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, hopefully the bit where Shasta had wanted to leave with Nerwen before this started suggests that he's a wolf? *crossing fingers*.

Well, I am not sure if I read it that way. My first impression of it was rather negative. Like, a wilting rose and a book of poetry? Doesn't it look like either Herbalist (plant) or Bard (poetry)? But then again of course, given that there were both of them, it makes it somewhat inconclusive. Still.

I would however think a no-lynch is not a good option for us anymore, since we started it once. It is all quite hazy at this point, the numbers can be anything, but generally, we still have at least one Wolf (even if both the lynched ones were Wolves, which I am not much convinced about). I think lynching would be the best option. Whom do people think the most likely to be Wolf (ev. Wolves, if the two lynched ones were innocent)?

EDIT: anyway, going to sleep now, but will be around in some hours after I sleep, so

[Kuruharan]

Well, this is not the scenario I expected to confront toDAY, it is much, much better!

Yay! Lottie is still with us!

Yay! The Herbalist had enough juice for one more healing!

And Yay! The Herbalist is still with us!

So...anybody feeling ill?

I am pretty confident that we are down at least one wolf...and honestly I think we are down two.

I would, for that reason, tentatively suggest that it might be possible for us to win with a no lynch toDAY. I will have to run the numbers tomorrow morning (in real time for me) because I'm too tired right now.

However, all that being said, I had a post more or less ready to go for right now so I'm going to put up a version modified for our new, much brighter, circumstances...

The soundtrack to be listened to while reading the rest of this...which I think is highly appropriate in just about every particular...except for maybe one or two details...

The Lalaith Case

So I went back and looked at her posts for the last two DAYS...and I strongly encourage everyone to check the links and go back and re-read the posts for themselves.

DAY THREE

Post 180 - In this post she suggests that McCaber was a wolf - and then suggests that this might point toward Legate being a wolf.

Then she says that I might be a wolf and was gambling that Boro would not turn up to disprove me. This particular notion, or some version of it kept coming up a few times among certain people.

Post 181 - She again spends this post speculating various ways that Legate or I could be guilty.

Post 200 - Says that Boro not claiming to have the Black Breath that DAY makes her feel better about me - *does not believe me to be a wolf anymore.* <- Please make special note of the underlined bit, because there is a sudden change coming DAY FOUR that happens for no stated reason.

DAY FOUR

Post 227 - Starts off the post by saying that I am probably innocent...and then spends most of the post laying out scenarios where I could be a wolf. Why this suspicion of somebody she has said multiple times she believes is probably innocent? At the very least that is not particularly helpful to the Ward. She should branch out her suspects a little.

Post 251 - Ahh...she branches out her suspects...back to Legate...and me again.

Post 257 - Asks Lottie to suspect Legate and myself...even though in Post 200 and Post 227 she said that she thought I was probably innocent.

Post 266 - Votes and again asks Lottie to suspect the likely innocents...or confirmed innocent in my case since I claimed I had the Black Breath, nobody counter-claimed, and I lived...and nobody unexpectedly succumbed to the Black Breath that NIGHT.

Post 278 - Said Boro's being strange. Fair point, well made.

The main thing I would like to highlight at the moment is that she is pretty relentlessly suspecting Legate and myself for little other reason than we are widely seen as innocent and not basing her suspicion on anything Legate or I have actually done during the game.

And let's just ignore for the moment the little detail that I'm one of two people playing who are as close a thing to a confirmed innocent as it is possible to have in this game and that was established on DAY FOUR.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What do you mean? How does that explain nobody defending Shasta?

A couple of ways.

1) It seems to me that Lalaith was implicitly supporting him.

2) There may have only been (and I hope there was) only one other wolf in the game left to support him.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

So...anybody feeling ill?

Maybe the Bard made a save last Night. You and Legate have both posted without any despair claims, and I don't think the wolves would have gone for someone else, who might still draw suspicion away from them, so it was probably down to the two of you for who was targeted - and you are closer to a known innocent, so if they'd targeted you, they would have still been able to go after Legate. I'm betting the Bard saved one of the two of you last Night.

That being said, I could be wrong. This is highly speculative!

The main thing I would like to highlight at the moment is that she is pretty relentlessly suspecting Legate and myself for little other reason than we are widely seen as innocent and not basing her suspicion on anything Legate or I have actually done during the game.

I agree, but I also wonder if both of the wolves would have taken this strategy, or if they might've split their forces so that even if targeting you and Legate blew up in Shasta's face (which it did), his packmate would have avoided the crossfire.

Of course, Lalaith did try to stay out of the blow up yesterday between the two of you, so maybe that is what she was trying to do.

[Kuruharan]

Also,

++Lottie for Rep Now and Forever!!!!!!

[Loslote]

You can take this one if everyone else is down with it...I've been hogging the lynches.

++Kuru

[Kuruharan]

But...you're awesome. And we might mess up the juju.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

But...you're awesome. And we might mess up the juju.

Well, for the juju, then.

[Boromir88]

I would think we could have a no lynch today and be alright. Worst case scenario is 3-3, but that would mean the conspirators have to be Lalaith, Legate, and Lommy, which I'm not seeing as the 3 villains. Shasta, or Inzil (if not both) were a conspirator. If wrong and it's 3-3 we're pretty much dead already, because I have no doubt they could use their advantage now and easily offer me up as the lynch.

I'm thinking it's 4-2, best case scenario is 5-1. In which case, we still have the herbalist, and possibly the bard (I'm not sick, but I'm sure the only reason I haven't been targeted is to keep as lynch fodder).

Even if Legate, Lalaith, or Lommy come out to say they're afflicted with the black breath. Sorry only going to vote Lottie or Kuru for rep. It may be lazy or boring to go with a no lynch and hold on for reinforcements, but if that's now an achievable path to victory, let's do it. There's no shame or cheapness about it, we still had to make key choices to get into this position. So, thank you Lottie and everyone for being wise and level-headed throughout these nightmares.

(Sorry for not bolding anyone's names, this was all typed from my phone). I'll be back at some point to vote for a rep and see what else has happened

[Kuruharan]

Numbers Post.

I'm slightly modifying the format...and this post will be a bit lengthy, but the content is pretty straightforward. I wish it was easier to set up charts and tables on the forum.

Worst Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta

DAY SIX
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta
Player 5

I just put both gifteds in there for convenience sake. On the No-Lynch choice in the worst case scenario we would be dependent on a correct bard save/herbalist heal (assuming the herbalist has any juice left). This would be a pretty chancy prospect.

But, I don't for a minute think this is actually the scenario we are facing. And if it is I take my hat off to the wolves.

Medium Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil

DAY FIVE
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)

DAY SIX
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)
Player 4

The wolves already cannot win if we are in this case, they can't get enough kills. A No-Lynch would be viable.

Best Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)

DAY FIVE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)

DAY SIX
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)
Player 3

Also here the wolves are doomed and cannot win regardless of what they do.

My personal belief is we have the best case scenario, but it is possible that we are on medium. There isn't much we can do if we are on worst. We would have to roll the dice on a lynch and hope for the best. But I don't believe we are on the worst case. Nothing about the way this game has unfolded leads me to believe we are facing the worst case scenario right now.

All that being said, I invite everyone to pick apart my numbers and analysis to make sure it is sound. As I said before, never trust me with counting.

While I think we are safe to Not Lynch, I kind of would like to lynch Lalaith. I think the case against her is compelling and I'd like to take a stab at winning this thing with a clean sweep.

But I am not wedded to that if the rest of the Ward doesn't think it advisable.

Xed with 2 Boro's