Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Lalaith]

Mith, continuing with the new topics of conversation - on Day One you strongly suspected Lottie and voted for her but on Day Two you mostly suspected (and voted for) Zil.
How do you feel about Lottie at the moment?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Mith, continuing with the new topics of conversation - on Day One you strongly suspected Lottie and voted for her but on Day Two you mostly suspected (and voted for) Zil.
How do you feel about Lottie at the moment?

I didn't stop suspecting her. I just put her on the back burner since Inziladun was hacking me off with his negativity. I was a little surprised so many also voted for him since I don't think they all expressed strong views during the day. Loslote IIRC didn't engage with my suspicions - which can be a wolf tactic but agreed with me enough to find it a bit creepy as I think I said. I don't think she has posted today so I will look back and see if I still find her suspicious in context of subsequent events. And who supported their vote. I can appreciate the risk of cross posts but it may be suspect in some.

[Lalaith]

Right, because it's a quiet Saturday for me and I'm not at work, I've been able to be a much more conscientious player. So much so that I've read through the whole bally thread all over again.
The reason I asked about Lottie is because I can see, reading over the thread again, more clearly where the suspicions about her were coming from and I've moved her further up my suspect list as a result.
I still feel very uncomfortable about Boro and would probably have voted for him toDay but he says that he might not be back toDay. For various reasons I feel uncomfortable with voting for someone in absentia.
I'm feeling more paranoid today - more baddies about. I trust fewer of you. Some old friends - Mith, Nogs - would have been good candidates for turning, I think. Eonwe too - he survived the "has Eonwe turned" attacks yesterday and this might make him a good candidate for turning last Night. Except of course that puts my "wolves feared Lommy was a Hunter" theory on its head. Hmmm.

[Mithalwen]

I suppose this game is a bit different but would Hunter be top priority for the GW? I can't recall it working well very often. Either goes pear shaped or it is irrelevant. If Lommy were Hunter that would simly be a first choice.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I now spent some time going through the posts of the players who were more out of spotlight...

Brinniel - was very scarce on Day 1, basically appeared, was against no-lynch policy, and voted Loslote, with the note that be the first to advocate a no-lynch could be a good cover for a baddie. On Day 2, discussed Morsul's death, also said that she was inclined to see Boro as innocent as his behavior would be risky for a baddie. Mentioned that both Boro and Eönwë were good possible options for the Wolves. After the Zilcident, started suspecting Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

More seem to find Inzil's reaction worrisome, but I'm more worried about Nerwen. I didn't really see his comment as a slip-up and she seems to be pulling this idea out of hat and letting the rest of the village run with it.

She eventually voted her as well. YesterDay a bit and toDay more, she engaged in the debate on the Dead thread. Her contributions to that topic seemed like genuinely interested, if not always very much to the point. Objectively, her appearances have been infrequent, although whenever she appeared, she had something to say. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be the fact that she has basically remained on the outskirts of the debate.

Lalaith - actually posted a lot more than I thought, at least in quantity of posts. Not so much on first Day, though. She voted Nerwen, based on:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Because she's been a bit enigmatic toDay, because if she's bad she's scary and if she's good she'll be an asset to the dead thread.

On Day 2, thought Morsul was probably killed because he was thought innocent. Discussed the Wolf-killed-by-EW theory a bit (dismissing it), mentioned me, Brinniel, Mithalwen and later also Lommy as "sensible and thus feeling non-wolfish". She didn't get where the "Eönwë has changed" argument came from, and was...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Uncomfortable, in varying degrees, with Nerwen, Eomer, Boro (reasons stated elsewhere) - also Lottie and Zil - they seem helpful but I'm not feeling it.

I actually had to look back for the "reasons stated elsewhere" - they are apparently that they were proposing the idea of no Wolf on Night 1. That is fairly random, if you ask me, especially since next she uses the term "my five main suspects" as if it were a big thing. She eventually voted Eomer.
ToDay, she participated in the Dead List suggestions, and has been posting a lot of thoughts which may be going on as I type this. From what I have seen, however, there were many points which seemed helpful. If there is anything suspicous about her, it would be her list of suspects on Day 2 which sort of appeared out of nowhere (resp. the reasoning was quite random).

Mith - her Day 1 was straight going for Lottie, Day 2 didn't apparently drop it but was suspicious of Inzil for downplaying looking at Morsul and for voting Nerwen. She has been posting some quite reasonable things which make her look good to me, such as:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The important thing as I recall was to limit the questions so that the dead had a multiple choice of votes to allow for their special knowledge. We don't want to mess up lynching a wolf to know x in the dead thread was an ordo.

Same thing toDay about the alphabetical order etc. (unless there was some hidden purpose behind that, like clumping some Wolves into a fitting cathegory)
If there was anything potentially Wolfish about her, then it would be only one of the latter posts, which is basically "nobody would make me a Wolf":

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh come on Eomer. Since when have I been an excellent wolf choice? I have only survived once which was a fluke. Apart from being founder member with darling Anguirel of the Fenris pack, my main claim to fame was revealing out of sheer boredom.. Noone in their right mind would actually choose me.

But that is about it.

Sally - has missed Day 1, on Day 2 had a fairly pessimistic ouverture, dismissed Morsul's kill as probably random first kill, and posted very little apart from that. The main post of any content which seems objectively relevant is this, and I can quote in full:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

So all of the chatter about Dun bothers me more than Dun's own words. My intention at this point is to take a stab at someone in that conversation, though at this point, that's sort of everyone.

In less vague news, my gut reaction is to not trust Lottie.

As one more point, why are we talking about the EW potentially killing his or her own wolf? I fail to see how the wizard could benefit from this in any way. There is a wolf, and the wolf killed Morsul.

This all actually sounds quite genuine, but most of the rest of her posts are effectively just one-liners (even though they are part of conversation). Also, apparently tried to vote just before DL and failed. ToDay, she still scolded those who spread the vote in the beginning, but also not much else after that. If there is anything suspicious about her, it would be that.

Summa summarum, in case of all of those, there isn't really enough for me to ring an alarm as far as I am concerned. I would definitely prefer to read more from all of those, except Lalaith has already started, which is good.

Ok, I spent some time with this, so off to check what's been happening on the thread, if anything.

EDIT: x-posted with lots

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Uh-huh. And I should also take a look at Shasta, for that matter. But he has been absent possibly even more than sally.

Also, a pity Pervinca had to drop (to be honest, this probably wasn't the easiest game to start with - but so hope she might come back for some other game...)

[Eönwë]

Got delayed a bit longer than I'd hoped. Catching up now.

[Nerwen]

Hello, all. And farewell, Pervinca.. This was probably not the easiest game to start off with- they're usually not this complicated. Hope you'll give it another try sometime!

Thoughts-

Nogrod's continued preoccupation with the Dead is really starting to raise flags for me. When I checked out earlier I thought the matter had settled, and then to find him still banging on about it hours later...

Then there's Legate-a few people (including Nogrod) have mentioned him as being slightly "off" toDay, and that a bit of a vibe I was getting myself with his Lommyalysis- especially as regards myself, as though he was quietly sounding people out as to whether they'd "like" to suspect me. But that could be paranoia on my part. Player analyses do lend themselves to that kind of thing, after all.
Edit: x'd since Nog.

[Nogrod]

Sorry to be this kind of an Owl of Minerva only flying after the fact - but with some hindsight (which I myself did acquire just now thinking about it) I could say that those who were very well on top of the rules on D1 and suggested a no-lynch policy are to me somewhat suspicious now.

I mean whatever we think about the possibility of the Dead Thread to help us, a no-lynch on D1 certainly robbed us one vote from them. And by default that should be the aim of the evil-side - especially as they didn't know beforehand, how the discussion on the Dead-vote issue would go on D1.

Now did the evil-ones saw this already beforehand or did they (or one of them - granting there was a wolf and an EW already on D1 which seems plausible) realize it only during the Day1?


Here are the one's I'd raise my eyebrow on...

Lottie was strongly for a no-lynch early on - and seemed to be on top of things. She voted to bring a tie.

Eomer is the same but disappears with no vote at all.

Legate was kind of going to-and-fro and ended up favouring no-vote (and tried to help organize it)

Eönwe first said no lynch is a fee ride for the wolves but then ended up suggesting a no lynch deal with his rigid system of tying the dead vote (the benefits of which he was actually cancelling with the no-lynch!).

Boro was a vocal - even literary supporter of a lynch unless the time came - and saved Lottie from lynching by voting himself.

My vote might go for one of these - and I believe there is at least one - if not two baddies in here. But also several innocents. But who is who?


PS. I'm trying to go to sleep toNight a bit earlier as well (being 2AM right now).


EDIT: X'd with Eönwe & Nerwen

EDIT2: Added: the benefits of (which he was actually cancelling with the no-lynch!) to make the point clearer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I specifically did not think Lottie to be the EW on D1 based on her behavior - I felt the EW, being a (virtually?) lone baddie would likely attempt to blend in and go with the flow of the village - something I felt Lottie hadn't done. I'm willing to be overruled, though, considering my horrid participation thus far (and today's won't be much better, I'm afraid, but I will be here sporadically).

[Lalaith]

Hunter could have been second choice.

[Lalaith]

Anyway, I'm not saying there IS a Hunter. I'm saying the wolves might have been worried there was one....but maybe I'm overthinking it.

[Nogrod]

Has anyone read toDay's thread in one piece? (Like I did just a moment ago)

Even sharp-minded people like Legate mis-interpreted the scheme for the Dead-thread and adding more options only makes it more misreadable - not to talk of even and odd days, alphabetical order or signing-in order or whatever. And which is the authoritative version - the one that is presented first or the one that is presented last etc.

Happily I see Eönwe backtracking at least that much as to agree that we shouldn't think this kind of scheme should be the default mindset here in the living thread for the whole game through. Good. We're starting to talk sense, I'd say.

I have nothing against trying it for one Day here in the beginning - well, toDay. There is probably quite little the Dead can tell us toDay as we (well, you) lynched no-one on D1. So we might as well try to find out whether Zil was innocent or not.

That said, I'd still caution us to take it (and everything from the Dead thread) with a pinch of salt as Eönwe put it - and that's actually the whole point: we don't get 100% information from there as much as we wished we could. Therefore, let's not try to puzzle them with requests like "none of the above".

(I was thinking of writing a parody-version of a Day in the Dead-thread during the day I was off doing other things and if I have time I might present one for you - but now I'll take a look at some more pressing matters aka. is there anything to say about toDay - or our voting toDay.)

[Nogrod]

Voting D2

Inzil -> Nerwen
Lommy -> Eönwe
.07 Eomer -> Lottie
.19 Lalaith -> Eomer
.22 Legate -> Boro
.25 Mith -> Inzil
.41 Nogrod -> Eönwe 2
.51 Brinn -> Nerwen 2
.53 Pervinca -> Inzil 2
.53 Nerwen -> Inzil 3
.55 Lottie -> Inzil 4
.58 Boro -> Inzil 5
.58 Eönwe -> Inzil 6

(Only the votes during the last hour are given a timestamp aka. minutes into the last hour)

Well, we shure didn't tie the vote yesterDay.

The problem is that it's pretty hard to draw conclusions from there as baddies as well as goodies might have jumped on the band-wagon in the end - the former to blend in and the latter to secure there is no draw on votes.

That being said I'm a bit uneasy with how easily people jumped on Zil-wagon with quite little to argue for it (Pervinca might be pardoned - and s/he (?) voted quite early only to tie Zil with others in the tally). Sure, I myself somewhat suspected him, but I tend to do that everytime we play, so I'd not take that as a reason to actually vote for him, at least myself.

[Kuruharan]

Pervinca Took has requested to withdraw from the game.

She was an Ordo.

Living
Nerwen
Loslote
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Eönwë
Nogrod
Brinniel

The Dead
Morsul the Dark
Inziladun
Thinlómien

Escaped
Pervinca Took (Ordo)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Pervinca Took has requested to withdraw from the game.

She was an Ordo.

Sad.

Come bravely to the next one! You'll get the hang of this!

[Nogrod]

Btw. Legate: could you tell us what you were thinking with this one (on Lommy):

Originally Posted by Legate

At the same time, she was posting many generally helpful suggestions (try to prevent a tie etc.) which made her (in my opinion) look more innocent.

In the end of the Day1 you were a strong advocate of the no-lynch policy and actually tried to achieve it - or at least tried to make an impression you tried to achieve it, as you voted already three minutes before the DL and knew there were people still voting, but commented on your vote that it "should be a tie". And here you then say Lommy's driving for a lynch made her look more innocent?

So what has changed, your loyalties or something else?