Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Y'all, I'm sporadically here, but it doesn't look like I'm going to get too much done in the way of big long analysis posts. Sorry to keep harping on RL issues like this.

I will get some thoughts out, though, so people can see where I stand.

I think it likely that Sally and Legate are both evil. Sally is a tonal read for me - she isn't being as happy-go-lucky and helpful as she usually is when she's an innocent. Legate is murkier for me, but I've voted him two days in a row and it's gotten very little traction both days - it makes me think he's being saved by his evil partners. In fact, the only person to actually vote Legate with me has been Boro - and I think Boro was probably an ordo like he claimed, he was sounding like an innocent to me before he died. I'm not really sure where that bandwagon came from.

Brinniel is hard for me to read because she seems very helpful, but I think I'm being swayed fairly hard by Nerwen's analysis of her. I'd like to try and develop my own read on her, but I'm putting her in the orange category for now.

Eonwe has focused on the dead thread quite a bit this game and I can't recall whom he actually suspects as being evil. Lalaith is another person who's been around - I can recall her posting, a fair amount actually! - but I'm not sure who she suspects either.

Nerwen I've read as fairly consistently innocent throughout the game and nothing has really changed for me there. I need to reread some of her arguments and make sure I'm not just being blinded by her helpfulness, but I lean good on her.

Eomer I also lean fairly good on (whaaaaaat?). I was leaning good-er, but his posts today about how Boro was likely a wolf threw me a bit, as that's not what I was thinking about Boro at all, so I may need to re-evaluate.

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Summation - I would vote Legate or Sally - maybe Brinniel - toDay.

[Brinniel]

Both of my top suspects from yesterDay are still alive.

I'm not as sure toDay about Eonwe. Mainly because he's been so quiet the last two Days (due to RL commitments as I understand), so I'd like to hear more from him.

I'm still feeling just as uneasy about Legate as I did yesterDay, so I should probably look at him some more.

There are other players I should take a look too, but that will need to wait another hour or so when I get home.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Y'all, I'm sporadically here, but it doesn't look like I'm going to get too much done in the way of big long analysis posts. Sorry to keep harping on RL issues like this.

I will get some thoughts out, though, so people can see where I stand.

I think it likely that Sally and Legate are both evil. Sally is a tonal read for me - she isn't being as happy-go-lucky and helpful as she usually is when she's an innocent. Legate is murkier for me, but I've voted him two days in a row and it's gotten very little traction both days - it makes me think he's being saved by his evil partners. In fact, the only person to actually vote Legate with me has been Boro - and I think Boro was probably an ordo like he claimed, he was sounding like an innocent to me before he died. I'm not really sure where that bandwagon came from.

Brinniel is hard for me to read because she seems very helpful, but I think I'm being swayed fairly hard by Nerwen's analysis of her. I'd like to try and develop my own read on her, but I'm putting her in the orange category for now.

Eonwe has focused on the dead thread quite a bit this game and I can't recall whom he actually suspects as being evil. Lalaith is another person who's been around - I can recall her posting, a fair amount actually! - but I'm not sure who she suspects either.

Nerwen I've read as fairly consistently innocent throughout the game and nothing has really changed for me there. I need to reread some of her arguments and make sure I'm not just being blinded by her helpfulness, but I lean good on her.

Eomer I also lean fairly good on (whaaaaaat?). I was leaning good-er, but his posts today about how Boro was likely a wolf threw me a bit, as that's not what I was thinking about Boro at all, so I may need to re-evaluate.

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Summation - I would vote Legate or Sally - maybe Brinniel - toDay.

What he said, basically.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I have spent some time trying to go through peoples' posts and all and it's awfully exhausting.

All the knowledge combined with this question: who would be the most logical member of a Wolf pack, taking into account all that has happened?

Eönwë has been helpful since the beginning, and I would imagine that either he would have been turned at some point, or killed (which he obviously wasn't), or then he's been something since the very beginning (an EW or a Wolf turned on Night 1). I think at least on Day 1 he really looked just helpful. If he had been turned, he could easily just have continued doing that in the same track. What drew my eyes to him the most was his super-safe spot in the Inzil bandwagon, though.

Sally has been like the biggest submarine from the start, and she tends to be. She would be quite a logical pick for a Wolf. One thing is, her behavior has been mostly consistent, so at least I would rather imagine her as one from the start rather than one turned at some point (then again, it isn't very difficult to be consistent as a submarine. But I mean there are nuances as to how you act towards people at those rare occassions when you do).

Nerwen would be a person I could easily imagine being picked by the EW in the sense that she can hide her nature well; thing is, she has been pretty much consistent and sort of in the background - like I said, many of her posts especially at start actually were helpful (clarifying rules etc) without actual commitment. So if she was a Wolf, I would think she would be one rather from the beginning, or then simply the EW.

Brinniel has been quieter in the beginning, then kind of became more involved as the game went on. Could that signify a role shift? She also could be a clever Wolf with staying on the edge of the discussion without attracting too much attention. Sort of floating in the middle.

Eomer has been also floating by without attracting the attention or controversy he usually does. I actually haven't thought about this before at all. ToDay, he has also spent practically the whole Day bringing the debate back to theoretical questions about the Nightly events, which, while objectively interesting, don't really specifically lead us anywhere in terms of deciding the lynch. Still, objectively, I don't think I would write him down for a vote.

Lalaith was most of the time sounding quite genuine, of course she could be just a Wolf buttering up people. But she is about the only player I feel fairly comfortable about at the moment.

Shasta... has been a horrible submarine (thanks to RL, I gather, however), at least in the beginning, then he has had this one-mind track about pursuing me during the last few Days. That is actually also interesting, could it be a shift after he has been turned into a Wolf? In any case, I really can't tell what I am thinking of him.

Basically, the problem is that really we don't have any info at all. Like what is one supposed to make of that.

I need to think and it is sorta frustrating. Nerwen or Eönwë are probably on top of my list, but seriously, it can be anyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't wrestling with these numbers. We've had all game to speculate on 'so-and-so feels wolfy to me'; but now there's possibly essential info for us to work with. We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

But today, we know for certain that the EW is not at maximum wolfage. Either Boro was innocent, in which case we need to work out possible night scenarios - all of which seem less likely to me, given that they're based on so much bad luck for the EW.

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

All right, time to focus more closely on my top lynch suspects.

[Lalaith]

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

Hm, that may be a good catch.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lal, that's all I've been posting about today! The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

He's pretty clearly doing it as a hypothetical.

As for why I'm loyal to Eonwe- perhaps he just doesn't strike me as guilty. However, there is more than one way to be an "innocent" in this game- I'm surprised that doesn't seem to factor into anyone's calculations, actually.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gotta say, reading back through all days and I'm in great danger of becoming set in my ways. Today has reinforced my suspicions from yesterday. There's something drawing me to Eonwe's side over Brinniel. Shasta and Sally to make up the evil team.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I have been pretty much mentally exhausted during the last few hours and I also feel tired. I might really want to vote and go to sleep sooner rather than later. And it is late here already.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

It is true that both Nerwen and/or Eönwë being Wolves would make sense in that paradigm (if just looking at last two Days' worth of votes).

EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith and Eomer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

Nice way to get yourself off the hook toDay, eh?