Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, I have spent some time trying to go through peoples' posts and all and it's awfully exhausting.

All the knowledge combined with this question: who would be the most logical member of a Wolf pack, taking into account all that has happened?

Eönwë has been helpful since the beginning, and I would imagine that either he would have been turned at some point, or killed (which he obviously wasn't), or then he's been something since the very beginning (an EW or a Wolf turned on Night 1). I think at least on Day 1 he really looked just helpful. If he had been turned, he could easily just have continued doing that in the same track. What drew my eyes to him the most was his super-safe spot in the Inzil bandwagon, though.

Sally has been like the biggest submarine from the start, and she tends to be. She would be quite a logical pick for a Wolf. One thing is, her behavior has been mostly consistent, so at least I would rather imagine her as one from the start rather than one turned at some point (then again, it isn't very difficult to be consistent as a submarine. But I mean there are nuances as to how you act towards people at those rare occassions when you do).

Nerwen would be a person I could easily imagine being picked by the EW in the sense that she can hide her nature well; thing is, she has been pretty much consistent and sort of in the background - like I said, many of her posts especially at start actually were helpful (clarifying rules etc) without actual commitment. So if she was a Wolf, I would think she would be one rather from the beginning, or then simply the EW.

Brinniel has been quieter in the beginning, then kind of became more involved as the game went on. Could that signify a role shift? She also could be a clever Wolf with staying on the edge of the discussion without attracting too much attention. Sort of floating in the middle.

Eomer has been also floating by without attracting the attention or controversy he usually does. I actually haven't thought about this before at all. ToDay, he has also spent practically the whole Day bringing the debate back to theoretical questions about the Nightly events, which, while objectively interesting, don't really specifically lead us anywhere in terms of deciding the lynch. Still, objectively, I don't think I would write him down for a vote.

Lalaith was most of the time sounding quite genuine, of course she could be just a Wolf buttering up people. But she is about the only player I feel fairly comfortable about at the moment.

Shasta... has been a horrible submarine (thanks to RL, I gather, however), at least in the beginning, then he has had this one-mind track about pursuing me during the last few Days. That is actually also interesting, could it be a shift after he has been turned into a Wolf? In any case, I really can't tell what I am thinking of him.

Basically, the problem is that really we don't have any info at all. Like what is one supposed to make of that.

I need to think and it is sorta frustrating. Nerwen or Eönwë are probably on top of my list, but seriously, it can be anyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't wrestling with these numbers. We've had all game to speculate on 'so-and-so feels wolfy to me'; but now there's possibly essential info for us to work with. We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

But today, we know for certain that the EW is not at maximum wolfage. Either Boro was innocent, in which case we need to work out possible night scenarios - all of which seem less likely to me, given that they're based on so much bad luck for the EW.

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

All right, time to focus more closely on my top lynch suspects.

[Lalaith]

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

We've not come across a single wolf all game - we've been shooting in the dark!

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

Hm, that may be a good catch.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lal, that's all I've been posting about today! The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.

[Brinniel]

Sally has texted me and requested that I report to the village that she's had some trouble getting online, but she should be around shortly.

[Lalaith]

The permutations of that possibility. Including in the post you quoted from.

I know, I'm not trying to frame you. I just don't understand the logic of what you said.
Speaking of framing...I have a feeling that Nerwen is trying set Brinn up.This could just be because I don't find Brinn particularly suspicious myself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I know, I'm not trying to frame you. I just don't understand the logic of what you said.
Speaking of framing...I have a feeling that Nerwen is trying set Brinn up.This could just be because I don't find Brinn particularly suspicious myself.

No I'm not. Just an honest analysis, trying to puzzle her out.

[Brinniel]

Some more thoughts....

If Boro is innocent that sudden bandwagon against him is troublesome, and I'd want to take a closer look Lalaith and Eomer who have pretty flown under my radar. If he turns out to be guilty however, I would say both of them look pretty innocentish. I mean, why set up a last minute lynch for a wolfish Boro when there were other lynch candidates to consider?

I don't think Legate's vote yesterDay tells us as much since he was next in line on the lynching block and his vote could have been made out of self-preservation. He did vote for Boro on all other Days, so Boro's guilt might make him look a bit better. Hounding on a fellow wolf throughout the entire game would be quite the risk, though not impossible. His opinions are still pretty non-committal, so without knowing Boro's identity, my feelings about him haven't really changed.

When Nerwen suspects someone, she is quite aggressive about it. I don't know, perhaps that is just her playing style. But I don't like how she is manipulating my past posts. When doing a post-by-post analysis of someone, it would be better if you used actual quotes or links rather than rephrasing what's been said.

Sally does also worry me some. She is quite a submarine in that she hasn't posted a lot of substance. Just enough to be an active participant without really being noticed.

I feel better about Shasta because as I said before, while his post count is low, his posts seem more substantial and feel more sensible to me.

Eonwe is around, but so far he has only been posting lists and such...nothing of real substance.

EDIT: X-ed with a bunch of posts...um, what going on here?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Apologies, I'm now back but I've had a hectic evening, it's late where I am and I will need to go to bed soon. The interesting Day that Kuru promised us hasn't yet materialised in the way I'd imagined...I had hoped to hold off my vote til closer to DL but I'm just too tired.

For various reasons ( barring any startling revelations) I am inclining to vote for Eonwe today. Sorry I haven't had time to do a point by point analysis on this one, but my suspicion is down to a plethora of small things rather than one big one...eg the helpful list at the start feeling slightly less helpful with the 'small portions' policy.

Then there's Nerwen - after my initial doubts on Day One I started to feel ok with her but there's this loyalty to Eonwe which puzzles me - any true innocent should probably just be feeling a bit paranoid about everyone (that's certainly how I'm feeling)
Eomer:

How do you know Boro wasn't a wolf?

He's pretty clearly doing it as a hypothetical.

As for why I'm loyal to Eonwe- perhaps he just doesn't strike me as guilty. However, there is more than one way to be an "innocent" in this game- I'm surprised that doesn't seem to factor into anyone's calculations, actually.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gotta say, reading back through all days and I'm in great danger of becoming set in my ways. Today has reinforced my suspicions from yesterday. There's something drawing me to Eonwe's side over Brinniel. Shasta and Sally to make up the evil team.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, I have been pretty much mentally exhausted during the last few hours and I also feel tired. I might really want to vote and go to sleep sooner rather than later. And it is late here already.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

It is true that both Nerwen and/or Eönwë being Wolves would make sense in that paradigm (if just looking at last two Days' worth of votes).

EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith and Eomer

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Or Boro was guilty, which I find more likely, and which probably cuts our lynch candidates almost by half.

Nice way to get yourself off the hook toDay, eh?