What If: The Noldor never leave

[denethorthefirst]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think you're being unfair to the Sindar here. Elu and Melian won the First Battle. With absolutely no warning, they were set upon from a direction they'd never considered dangerous - Silm Chapter 10 makes it clear that evil creatures came from the east and south, not from the north, until Morgoth returned. They not only defended their heartlands, they utterly crushed one of the two hosts that came against them (and gained a vital influx of population in the bargain). The western Orc horde was 'victorious', true - but they only drove Cirdan onto the defensive, not to his doom.

And then Melian set up the Girdle, which we're told would stand unless one with greater power than her showed up. That's specifically one - the text doesn't allow for multiple enemy Maiar to team up against her.

How likely is it that Doriath on its own, without the help of the Noldor to occupy and distract Morgoth, would have been able to oppose the power of Angband? Morgoth completely crushed all the elven Kingdoms in Beleriand, the Noldorin Realms and the Falas under Cirdan. He achieved total victory. At the end of the First Age his army was so big that the entirety of Anfauglith could not contain it and the War of Wrath lasted for 42 years (!). Yes, Melian was powerful, but, given all that, I do not know how believable it is that Doriath on its own was powerful enough to achieve what all the Noldorin Kingdoms could not, how Doriath would be able to withstand something that even the Host of Valinor took several decades to overcome.

And we know that Morgoth left Angband at least once (to visit Hildorien). So if he deemed it absolutely necessary, he was quite ready to leave his fortress. The question is: how important would Morgoth deem the destruction of Doriath? We are talking about the most powerful and most populous Kingdom of the Elves in Arda, the pinnacle of elven civilization (and the closest approximation of Valinor) in Middle-Earth. How would Morgoth be able to tolerate the existence of hundreds of thousands of elves, living in harmony, contradicting and opposing everything he stands for? If there are no Noldor to distract him, then destroying that Kingdom would be his top priority. His massive ego simply would not allow the continued existence of such an obviously superior civilization (and the existence of another king) right in front of his doorstep. If Morgoth had achieved total victory in Beleriand outside of Doriath (that is, defeated the Falathrim/Cirdan in West-Beleriand and the Nandor and the Dwarves in East-Beleriand), he would in my opinion eventually leave Angband to tear down the Girdle of Doriath. Eventually his ego and his lust for destruction would overpower his fear, especially if he had achieved total victory in the rest of Beleriand and therefore would have no reason to really be afraid of anything. It may take him a few hundred years, if he is really cautious, but it would only be a matter of time. Yes Morgoth was afraid of combat, but I do not think that tearing down the Girdle would be a question of combat at all, or would require any physical activity for that matter. It would purely be a contest of sorcery, between the will of Morgoth and the will of Melian, a contest that Morgoth, well protected by Balrogs, Dragons, Trolls and multitudes of Orcs, would eventually win.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

And we know that Morgoth left Angband at least once (to visit Hildorien).

Even Tolkien wasn't certain about that; elsewhere in Morgoth's Ring he raises the idea that it was Sauron, not his boss, who handled the Corrupt The Newborn Men job.