Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Pitchwife]

Aaaand here we go again!


Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Hmm?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Yes! You've already cracked the puzzle.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Well here I am the fourth to post...already one of us must be infected!

[Pitchwife]

Or two, maybe? Zil has already as good as pleaded guilty - would you like to follow suit?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Or two, maybe? Zil has already as good as pleaded guilty - would you like to follow suit?

Goodness no. I have been washing my hands so often you can smell the soap from across the village, I assure you!

[Urwen]

Checking in.

Maeglin: Why did you bring me? I am not a part of this game.
Me: True, but I hope your sharp eyes will help me spot the wolves.
Maeglin: Ah, that makes sense.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.

That was very fast, dear sir! Well, I mean, in these numbers, you may be on to something... but of course I would not exclude you from this. Ha! Anyone could say that! And more importantly, did you wash your hands? I have heard that Morgoth's Breath is contained the best... by... washing hands... okay okay, that sounds weird, I admit. Maybe by not breathing, then. In fact, a wise friend of mine said that if you hold your breath - like thus -------- and you don't start coughing, you are probably healthy. There! If everyone does this, case solved.

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

EDIT: x-ed with Zil, Lottie and Pitchwife

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

Seconded with sincerity.

Who's this Maeglin anyways?

x/d with Urwen

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That was very fast, dear sir! Well, I mean, in these numbers, you may be on to something... but of course I would not exclude you from this.

I certainly wouldn't expect you to.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And more importantly, did you wash your hands?

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

This!

[Thinlómien]

Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here. )

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have heard that Morgoth's Breath is contained the best... by... washing hands... okay okay, that sounds weird, I admit. Maybe by not breathing, then.

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Well, it depends on why one is washing hands!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, it depends on why one is washing hands!

Originally Posted by G55

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day1!

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Originally Posted by Lottie

And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

Yeah, well, with quick maths: if the gifteds & cobbler fail to play a role, then 5 wolves still means we have to go 6 days without lynching a wolf to lose immediately. But I think if we lynch the first wolf only on Day6 we're nonetheless pretty deep in trouble. So the sooner we start mowing them down and collecting clues, the better.

Originally Posted by G55

Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

And an absolutely useless tally when no one has to put their money where their mouth is!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? What's wrong with people?)

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And an absolutely useless tally when no one has to put their money where their mouth is!

Well one would of course expect them to do so! And anyway, things would change as people vote, but... a sort of a "dry run" would do no harm, I say.

For example by making a "fake" DL before the actual one (for instance three hours before the actual DL? Anyway some people may really vote by that time, but that doesn't harm the experiment, quite the opposite). As in (especially during later days) without knowing the QT vote. May be interesting to see then how the idea changes etc.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

And unfortunately, we seem to have used up the village's supply of soap that was meant to last all year in just one night...we'll have to come up with another way to measuring guilt!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

So did Lady Macbeth.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze. Oh lord.


Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!


~ With great love, as I missed you all too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here.)

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this

Only a cobbler would accuse another of shoemaking so very early.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

Wholeheartedly agree.

[Thinlómien]

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all.

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.


edit: xed with everyone and loving this game

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

See, it takes some distance (of a few years! ) to move an idea forward!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

Yeah, but on the flip side with 5 wolves it should be so much easier statistically. A 1/4 chance that only grows with each innocent death. I'm not sure if the bigger numbers are in fact a hindrance to the Wolves rather than a help. *rubs hands eagerly*


Edit: crossed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

No, no. We older folks don't need it more complicated.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Yeah, but on the flip side with 5 wolves it should be so much easier statistically. A 1/4 chance that only grows with each innocent death. I'm not sure if the bigger numbers are in fact a hindrance to the Wolves rather than a help. *rubs hands eagerly*

You'd think higher numbers would be better, but it seldom seems to shake out that way...

x/d with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze.

Yes. For the baddies.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

Please let's not.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards.

Well, since in this game the first to be tied is lynched I'd expect there to be a little less chaos in the last minutes before deadline, less people holding back their vote till the last possible second. So, hm, let me think, couldn't 'spreading the votes a little' be a safe tactic for wolves as long as there's enough votes for a non-wolf?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.

You don't say!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

Cue my usual "a no lynch plays to the baddies" quote.

x/d with Lottie

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

The sheer number of players will play havoc with my ADHD.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Speculating on what those there are doing? No point. It's difficult (though not impossible!) to see a wolf being the first gone, but if that happened it could be useful.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.

Wolf! Woolf!

x/d with Lottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The sheer number of players will play havoc with my ADHD.



Speculating on what those there are doing? No point. It's difficult (though not impossible!) to see a wolf being the first gone, but if that happened it could be useful.



Wolf! Woolf!

x/d with Lottie

+1 for Inzil.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all.

You were right, that was zero content

But anyway, as for now... I think I might reserve making any more specific judgments for after at least majority of villagers have posted, which is incidentally a number that is... insane, because there really are so many of us. But since this will be bedtime for me soon, I expect that by the time I get up again majority will have posted. Those who are here now are fairly active already, but hey, we can't all be Wolves, right? Or... *dun dun dun dun* (No, that's not a pun on Inziladun. OR IS IT?)

That's an interesting thought anyway, given the numbers - of course statistically spread, one would imagine the WWs appearing throughout the Day gradually to post, but it may be of course that no Wolf has posted yet, or all have (much less likely). Just a sort of reminder (to myself, but of course to you too) when analysing. (This whole thing came from my musing about waiting for majority of players to post... because indeed, what if there haven't been any WWs thus far?)

Speculation mode off.

Oh look! I succesfully managed to write half a page long post about nothing. Well done, I'm back on track with playing Werewolf, it seems.

EDIT: x-ed with G55 and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh look! I succesfully managed to write half a page long post about nothing. Well done, I'm back on track with playing Werewolf, it seems.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think I might reserve making any more specific judgments for after at least majority of villagers have posted

Fishy fishy fake reasonable! What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

Anyway yeah, it's getting late irl, I'm signing off now and I'll be back within 12h. Have fun and please provide me something to analyse in the "morning".

[Lhunardawen]

Checking in. My, what a noisy village this is going to be.

I'm here to represent the We Hate Day Ones club (or whatever its name ever was). And as much as I agree that with 5 wolves it is statistically more likely to lynch one on Day 1... Well, let's see what the Day brings.

Meanwhile I shall work, with my anachronistic N95 mask on and this newfangled potion called alcohol. I hope these will be enough to protect me from the Evil Breath.

(Now this, this post has no helpful content whatsoever. )