Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rikae

As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

However:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

This actually makes sense, and doesn't ring evil.

Originally Posted by Loslote

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

Read that post again. And then try to match the statements with an actual post. See how that matches up.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

Only if hypothetically contemplating possible village victories is not entirely the action of a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

This is hilariously accurate.




I have online lectures starting in under an hour, so while I might pop in for a brief comment throughout the remainder of the Day I will vote before they start, in case things happen too quickly and I end up missing the deadline.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

[Nogrod]

To answer & comment two things.


There are no retractable votes aka. voting with highlighted letters is final.

You may make "fake-votes", but please make them clearly different, as you have nicly done thus far (I actually liked Lommy's version of using +- in front of the vote).

Originally Posted by G55

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

If that is the situation on the end of the Day and the Ordo is voted out, then Wolves win, because at the start of the Night it is 1-1 which by default means Wolf-victory.

If we go into the Night with those three, the Wolf has, purely numerically, 75% chance on winning. Picking the Ordo by Night the Wolf wins: when Day breaks it's 1-1. Picking the Hunter the wolf has 50-50 chance of winning, depending on whether the Hunter hunts the Wolf or the Ordo.

In Real Game circumstances the odds surely are different because there can be well founded suspicions or even knowledge involved in the picks the last players make.

[Macalaure]

I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in their summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

Originally Posted by G55

Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Wait right there... as far as I'm concerned, my questions are answered!

How are you so sure that it was deliberate?

Originally Posted by G55

bombastically inaccurate

Anyway...

Originally Posted by Boro

Do people like Mac without butter?

I'm pretty good raw, but butter just really brings out my flavor.


And fake votes, eh?

+-Macalaure

Chew on that!

[Brinniel]

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that?

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

I don't recall what Mac said...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. It was just an observation I made as looked back at several posts referring to you. And yes I still do find you on the slightly suspicious side, but I don't think enough to vote you. G55's exchange with Rikae makes me more inclined to think her innocent (seems like a squabble between two innocents really).

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boro

If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again?

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

This, I want more context on this.

[A Little Green]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?

Edit: xed with the lady herself

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

Secondly, keep in mind that all of our posts are cross-posted, and therefore most of my posts have cross-posted with an explanation.

[Galadriel55]

++ Rikae

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

If it was not Rikae, it would be Brin. However, I still wasn't able to do a full Brin-read, and besides, there is more than one wolf in this village, so maybe we will both turn out right. I stand by my suspicion.


I will predictably be crossed since my last post.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

Oh wow.

If you mean why I said Inzil suspected Legate, I did explain it, and you responded to it with your little English lesson, so please don't try to tell me that was crossposted as well.

I can't imagine what could possibly be irritating me. Obviously only a wolf would be annoyed by this.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Yes, it's a shame the village doesn't share your conviction that an error from someone who, conveniently, suspects you isn't a clear sign of wolvishness.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

But between the two of us, the only one who might be gauging them correctly. You actually seem to think I'm afraid of you.

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Thanks for the English lesson.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

What in Arda are you even talking about?

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

What makes you think I'm trying to dissuade you? If you want to make some illogical case against me, honestly, you'll probably just end up hurting yourself in the long run.

Edit: X'd with G55, Boro, Green, Rune

[Rikae]

I might not make it back before the DL, so I'll cast my vote now.

I really can't make up my mind about G55 and I feel like her current behavior could possibly throw my judgement off. I'm keeping my eye on her, but:

++Brinniel

For reasons previously listed (opportunism, avoiding a trap), and a general safe-wolf, tiptoe-around-the-edges vibe.

[Boromir88]

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)
Boro for Legate (post 113 for a reference)
Rikae for Brinn (post 148)
Lommy for Boro (post 150)
Legate for Kitanna (post 151)
Lottie for G55 (post 152, but I think the reasoning is from post 149)

If I missed anyone's sorry...hard to kind spot them. Those were the ones that I already specifically noted. So, yeah, Day 1 shots in the dark. It is rather interesting to judge and look at what's going on.

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing. But I'm mostly worried about the fact that he's not half as confrontational as usual, but instead posting long introspective rambles where he conveniently doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with anyone.~Lommy

Take this however, but true, it's exactly my tone right now. True, I like to get in there and pick fights, but find the task hard to do on Day 1. How do you get right in there after someone based on completely random reasons? I find the task difficult and then get more aggressive as more solid reasons come in.

Then with some of the other kerfuffles taking place today, I hold back being involved to let the plot play out. Not all planning is evil and I try to avoid drawing attention towards people until I'm more sure of intent.

The one thing I was most certain of agreeing with today was Pitch's comment that there was a difference in that LGP group between Legate's "enthusiasm" in jumping on G55's question to stir conversation. If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again? I'm going back through those interactions, because if true, that does ping more to my fight senses than anything else today.

And then the true vote tally...

Lhuna for Lhuna

Edit: crossed with everything since last post on Page 4

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)

It's worth noting nothing so far has swayed me on Lommy in that she was my first real ping, but she deserves a thorough re-read.

Much more interesting and pressing is Pitch/Eonwe, in my mind. Rikae/G55 has played itself out, in my opinion - Rikae reads innocent to me and the jury's still out on G55, though I'd lean Cobbler over Wolf if she's evil, based on the timing.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in her summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

I started to sense it less as a trial and more just head butting over play styles. They both know how to put the pressure on and have a very direct approach. With that in mind as I’ve noted before, I’m not curious about those who’ve been the most direct. I’m wondering about those who’ve been on their sidelines during the debate. That’s an awfully safe shadow to nod along in…

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.

Originally Posted by Loslote

If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon.

For all my suspicions, that’s a pretty valid point. One that began to make me doubt Loslote of obvious wolfish hiding.

On the flip side, G55 and Rikae have played pretty true to character, so it’s not odd at all for them to butt heads. If orchestrated for the sake of distraction as Kit suspects in post #95, it’s going rather well for whoever needs that cover.

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

This actually makes sense. I could believe Cobbler-G55. I read Rikae as innocent through the whole exchange, and I do not read G55 as innocent at all, but she could go either cobbler or wolf for me.

[Boromir88]

The longer I wait the more nerve-wracking it's going to be on me and I really don't like the prospect of let's have a flurry Day 1 dl voting to have a bit of a "toss-up." Nerve-wracking.

Yes, changing from my intended vote of Legate to

++Pitch

There's a nonchalance to his admitted going back and forth and flip-flopping between Legate and G55. Most of us go through the flip-flopping about people, but his efforts looked more directed at sowing confusion in an effort to play both sides.

Not leaving completely, but wanted to get that done. No point waiting, when I'm just going over the same posts again and again.

[Macalaure]

I won't be around near the deadline, so I'll have to vote soon, and I don't know who for.

Legate seems fairly fine, actually. Pitch still seems tense to me, but that alone is not enough. The way Gala went all out after Rikae makes me think she's innocent. Rikae's response doesn't point in either direction, so I don't have anything there either. Inzil is suspiciously unsuspicious (for his standards). Huin seems reasonable. Boro plays with the pressure-less cheer of an ordo. I feel fairly good about Greenie and THE Ka. Many people are quiet. I don't have any opinion on a whole bunch yet.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

This is odd. Some innocents have a habit of seeing wolves behind every accusation against them, which isn't helpful either, but usually people at least look closely and make their judgement - not because they're afraid of getting lynched necessarily, but to hunt for wolves. This comment only mentions self preservation.
Some wolves do it this way, as to not draw the village's attention to any suspicions.

Looking at Brinniel's past posts, there's some mild suspicion towards G55, Pitch, Legate, Inzil, then Kitanna later, but it's quite lukewarm. On Legate:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily.

I wish I had noticed this one earlier. That's wolfie way to word things.

[Nogrod]

You sure are going for the last hour vote.

An official tally, by courtesy of your Mod, an hour before the Deadline.

Day1 - votes

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae

[Urwen]

++ G55

Because I am Morleg and I am spiteful.

[Inziladun]

So. Many. posts.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have a minute right now, so I'm gonna go ahead and talk through my impressions on Boro so far. Boro is a bold player, especially as a wolf, in my experience. I'm getting a strong "brewing potential" vibe from Boro so far today - a sense of "big, bold plays may be coming" - which could very easily go innocent or wolf, given his playing style. I keep feeling like there's no reason for me to make a judgement call either way until he starts making his moves. I don't necessarily suspect him right now, and I would not vote for him toDay, but I am definitely going to keep an eye on him.

Boro was creeping me out early on, but that feeling has somewhat lessened.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

Conventional pack behavior might point to one or two loudmouths, one middle-of-the-road, and the rest under the radar.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

G55 has actually been my main candidate most of the Day. I'm still catching up, but it seemed Rikae spent a while suspecting her, then voted Brinn.
Then G55 votes Rikae What's up with that?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Do people like Mac without butter? Wait..maybe I'm confusing Mac for MaC (Macaroni and Cheese). Anyways, continue.

That is awesome.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Interesting.

Yes it is. What kind of "trap?

x/d with I=Don't-Know-How-Many

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Remark on the beginning:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

Someone mentioned that a Wolf wouldn't say this... in my experience, quite the contrary.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You sure are going for the last hour vote.

And what did you think, O sweet summer child?

Anyways... here goes my final list for the Day, categories reflecting overall impressions for the Day as of this moment:

Red Zone

Kitanna - I have listed it above. Upon re-read, I sense the danger of having focussed too much on it to the point of solidifying my suspicion for myself, but the points stand.

Eönwë - behaves reasonably to the point of it raising my alarm bells. I mean, he tends to be that way, but he actually looks almost too careful, as if deliberately making sure he remains under the radar while looking nice and sensible and active. Him, Greenie and Huinesoron could be (three fifths of) a very well-doing pack of "nice folks". And this is not just a throwaway remark, I will be actually keeping an eye on them.

Greenie - so see above. In her case, "red zone" simply means that I will be keeping an eye on her very, very closely, because no way I am letting a seemingly-innocent Greenwolf running free.

Huinesoron - also see above. I have generally a very good, very "informative" feeling from all the posts, but there is the "just right amount" of measured suspicion-and-distance to make it seem a possibly calculated thing.

Orange Zone

Boro - his lists interlaced sometimes with irrelevant banter and the generic pouring his heart out about why he is not going into confrontation seem a little like Boro, but not entirely. The time gap since the last game may be the reason, but I am still keeping an eye on him.

Lalaith - the few posts from her did not really convince me.

Brinniel - I still don't know. Basically after I voiced some uncertainties about her, she started behaving more, humm hmm, innocentishly. There are people who alarm me more, but still, Brinn behaves a lot like a Brinnwolf would. I guess I might wait to see more posts from her.

Urwen - I would like to see some more posts, please? The vote without reasoning certainly did not help. I don't need a massive essay, but a couple of posts regarding... anything in the village would help.

Lhuna - well, that single vote was... I am leaning to think it does not actually mean anything and it should be ignored. Doesn't like Day 1s, and would have done so whether Wolf or innocent, case closed. Her posting otherwise raised some eyebrows, but not in excessive way. Bears watching. *insert a picture of a grizzly peeking from a bush*

Yellow Zone

Macalaure - ever since he became more involved, I've started feeling better about him. He posts reasonably, question being whether he's just being clever (he would) or whether that's genuine. Currently leaning more towards genuine.

THE Ka - hmmnmn. I find the analyses she posts rather convincing and of course it may be we have a clever Wolf here, but contrary to the three folks in my red zone, I am not getting any vibes of "this looks like a carefully written argument that keeps me out of fire but adds fuel to one of the ongoing fires".

Inziladun - HAS MANAGED TO SLIP UNDER MY RADAR! Which by itself should be enough to send him plummeting right down to red zone. What happened to our Zil? But seriously. I have no read on his behaviour. Creepy. But obviously no reason to suspect him then, either.

Pitchwife - meh. A little pot of chaos, that one is, but I am reserving my judgment until I see more. Most of his toDay's actions got lost in the useless threesome.

Sally - pretty much also under the radar. Leaning good.

Lommy - I seriously can't tell because I am absolutely at loss at some of her thoughts, but the overall impression is - not suspicious.

G55 - I was actually beginning to get suspicious of her but then the whole Rikae argument broke out. If nothing else, it seems 99% likely to me that it is not a Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least not orchestrated beforehand (and I somehow find it unlikely to erupt into such scale if it's not orchestrated). Could be a Cobbler easily.

Loslote - I am not sure, but from the little I can gather, nothing that would scream Wolf, at least.

Green Zone

Kant - I mean, Kath - she is also helpful and "transparent", I would say, and seems genuinely so. I'm ok with her thus far.

Marx - I mean, Rune - is to the point, and I sense no falsehood in his tone. Okay now.

Rikae - I honestly have zero idea about what the entire G55 business was about, but overall I am having no particularly worryworthy vibes from Rikae.

Shasta - is being systematic and feels genuine. So far okay.

Will look at what's going about and then vote, hopefully...

EDIT: x-ed with a whole bunch of posts after Lommy

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

This is odd. Some innocents have a habit of seeing wolves behind every accusation against them, which isn't helpful either, but usually people at least look closely and make their judgement - not because they're afraid of getting lynched necessarily, but to hunt for wolves. This comment only mentions self preservation.
Some wolves do it this way, as to not draw the village's attention to any suspicions.

This is a fair point. I've done that as a wolf in past games - that is, ignored other people's suspicions of myself in order not to draw any more attention to them.

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?


EDIT: x-ed since aforementioned post by Mac

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This is a fair point. I've done that as a wolf in past games - that is, ignored other people's suspicions of myself in order not to draw any more attention to them.

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?


EDIT: x-ed since aforementioned post by Mac

Bother. I like this post and wish I didn't... kinda. There's several people pushing Brinniel as a vote today - this is the first semi-push-back that I've seen, and given Greenie "still thinks Brinn looks sketchy" it adds another layer of pigeonhole-scenario I'm unwilling to lock myself into but will consider later depending on what we learn.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?

This is a good point. I didn't have a sketchy read on him earlier, but I see what you mean about the wolf thought process. Something to keep in mind, especially if we find out Brinn's role.

xed with Shasta

[Macalaure]

Ok then. Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Why Rikae then, just because after yesterDay they'd look the most innocent of all toDay and thus least likely to be lynched? Possibly, but if so, our wolf pack is boring.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

*tinfoilhatting intensifies*


And while I'm already being paranoid...

Originally Posted by Kitanna

His response does seem like a natural response when a player comes under fire like he did. Not to say I absolve him, but it doesn't strike me as overly wolfy behavior.
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.

This would look perfect if Kitanna and Legate are wolves together. She’s suspicious of him and defending him at the same time. It’s easy to say that there’s a wolf in that group if you know that there is. Note how in conclusion, she finds Gala and Pitch more suspicious than Legate. Can't suspect a fellow wolf too much.

Legate is suspicious of Kitanna in turn, but then:

Originally Posted by Legate

Kitanna*- I have listed it above. Upon re-read, I sense the danger of having focussed too much on it to the point of solidifying my suspicion for myself, but the points stand.

Throwing suspicion at a fellow wolf while in the same breath excusing not to vote for them.



Finally, in response to Greenie, now that I have time to respond properly

Originally Posted by Greenie

This actually isn’t how I read that at all.

(This is in response to a point of mine against Huin.) Me neither, necessarily. But it’s a plausible wolf tactic to say someone looks innocent while at the same time inviting others to make their case for guilt.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?

I started that post not knowing who to vote for and listed all the ones that I did not wish to vote for. I was going to end the post with something along the lines of "I'm going to skim over the posts of the ones not listed to see if anything jumps out." As I previewed my post I saw Brinn's post. I looked back at her older posts and found more fishy-ish things that I had missed before. Enough to make me suspicious enough to vote.



PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??

[Brinniel]

Just reread Kitanna's posts again; there's only four and it was the last two that have me concerned. She tries really hard to build a case on the Pitch/Legate/G55 trio and that what I found fishy.

And as for the suspicions against me? As I said I'm not too worried about general wariness, as we all do suspect one another at some point. However since I know I'm innocent, I will be watchful anyone who is trying to build on a case against me.

I would lean towards voting Kit, but seeing that my name is in the tally, I shall wait in case there's the need to save myself.

[Pitchwife]

You know what, just because I can hang around till DL doesn't mean I have to wait.

++Brinniel


Picked suspects from Rikae's shortlist, then backed off when attention turned away from the LPG triangle, and when she got suspected for this she tried to shift the suspicion to Kitanna, who had been more or less in the same camp.

[Huinesoron]

So are we up to six votes on 4 people, with G55 and Brinn having 2 each? I still stand by my Lommy not-vote, but I can't help feeling the Brinn-wagon came up very suddenly. I suspect a deeper analysis will turn up a wolf (or two?) in there, but this close to deadline (and back on my phone) it's not possible.

... and now Pitch has voted for Brinn. So unless it looks like anyone else is voting Lommy, I will - probably in about 15 minutes - vote for Pitch (preferably) or G55 (if necessary), because I'm suspicious of both and don't trust the Brinn-wagon.

(Kath, re Urwen: she and G55 had a falling out in the Password game lately, so that might be why. The Morleg/Maeglin/Maeglin thing is just how Urwen talks. Not to say she can't be leaning into it, though.)

hS

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I started to sense it less as a trial and more just head butting over play styles. They both know how to put the pressure on and have a very direct approach. With that in mind as I’ve noted before, I’m not curious about those who’ve been the most direct. I’m wondering about those who’ve been on their sidelines during the debate. That’s an awfully safe shadow to nod along in…



Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.



For all my suspicions, that’s a pretty valid point. One that began to make me doubt Loslote of obvious wolfish hiding.

On the flip side, G55 and Rikae have played pretty true to character, so it’s not odd at all for them to butt heads. If orchestrated for the sake of distraction as Kit suspects in post #95, it’s going rather well for whoever needs that cover.

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

Oh, I quite like this post.

[Thinlómien]

Ummm, I think we should collectively start turning up earlier before the DL because there's so many of us

Greenie has a solid point on Mac.

Brinn's read on Kit is very different from mine. Interesting. While Kit's reading of Brinn is weird too - it's like a brinnwolf couldn't be a little clumsy (anyone can!), or innocent!Brinn couldn't be a little wishywashy. I very much don't think Brinn is the cobbler!

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.

Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??

Of the currently voted people, I would prefer not to lynch Lhuna or Rikae. Maybe not Pitch either.