Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kath]

I'm struggling, because even though I feel like I talked myself out of it in the previous post, I am still suspicious of G55.

I didn't like early on that she was happy to slide all the 'responsibility' for the fake votes thing over to Legate. You can say he took a joking remark beyond her original intention but as I noted before it was actually her who brought it back up again.

And having backed away, the affray with Rikae is a great way to get involved in something without actually really having anything to say. It's all about what did that word really mean rather than much else. So it seems like she's been involved in a lot but hasn't really.

But what I'm REALLY struggling with is that I'm now following Urwen's vote, which I'm strongly irritated by on principle.

However, I have to vote now as I'm needed elsewhere, so for the reasons above:

++G55

I've crossed with everything since post 221 here.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm jerking the reins here a bit.

++Pitchwife

[Kitanna]

Probably not going to get to Rikae before I need to vote, so I'm going to look at G55 since I already suspected her.

Originally Posted by G55

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

You're a monster for suggesting it. :P

Originally Posted by G55

Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

Here's the start of the fake vote exchange.
And for the sake of getting these two thoguhts in one place, here's Legate's response.

Originally Posted by Legate

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

And here's Pitch putting it on Legate

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*

In her next post G55 distances herself from her own idea.

Originally Posted by G55

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

In reading these all back to back without focusing much on other posts, I do find the exchange more bantering initiallty then I did at first. G55 throws an idea out without much gusto. Legate's response reads more excited player latching onto a new idea. Pitch looks to be the one taking it more seriously than the other two. That is until G55 puts distance between herself and the idea.
In fact all of her posts, that I took to be banter, "day 1 no lynch," she comes quick to the defense of. "Come on, guys, I wasn't advocating that." She's trying to get as far away as possible.
Ugh, I'm out of time to do this.
Based on my skimming and intial reactions, my gut says G55 or Pitch. However, I didn't get enough of their later posts to feel super comfortable, not when Rikae had a lot of back and forth with G55. But I need to vote, so
++Pitchwife
Of the three original posters to the fake vote idea, Pitch seemed to be laying bait for the other two. He didn't originate the idea, but he did seem to want to trap Legate into looking guilty. And then his vote for Brinn when she was gaining a lot of trajection and already received one vote.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.

Yeah; this is why I went with 'if necessary', and why I've held my vote longer than I intended. A wolf/wolf split vote lynching an innocent would be a nightmare!

Originally Posted by Rikae

This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

Possible terminology difference? I originally used 'Brinn-wagon' to mean the sudden suspicion of her, which came from a lot more people. I've since switched to meaning something like 'the possibly impending lynch because of the above'. I know the actual votes cast are low, don't worry.

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

++GALADRIEL55

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)

[Nogrod]

Day1 - votes


Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)

What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS

[Huinesoron]

Oh heck just saw.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS

Just stumbled upon this, among other things. I'm wondering whether I should just return to my early hunch and scrutinise Brinn further. (Her recent posts have been better, but I mean, she's a good Wolf player, and often if she manages to get suspected early and manages to get off the hook, she's able to maintain her presence for long.) But that would also mean that the WWs would have been really hard pressed in this village - having very strong bandwagons against one both Days! But of course it's possible.

As a sidenote, "I think there's a wolf deep inside it" also sounds like it could be the case of a Wolf randomly telling the truth. (If we took it literally, it would have to be Pitch, Ka or Rune, who had participated in the Brinnwagon before Hui said this. But it could also have been just a second-hand way to potentially use against Rikae - the one who started the Brinnwagon and is now known innocent - later, if it was needed.)

[Eönwë]

So... it looks like despite that scare at the end there (and as I was reading through hours later when I finally had time, I did panic a bit when reading G55's reveal), the lynch could've gone worse.

First, about my vote: there's not much more to say other than that I was on very limited time and had only managed to catch up to post #212, which was the most recent post when I arrived (as mentioned in my post). I did do a refresh just to see votes before making my final choice, but at that point we were still on page 6 and no-one had more than 2 votes so it was all still open (and I really didn't have time to look to see if I'd x-posted or not).

[Eönwë]

Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

1. She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
2. She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
3. She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Given that she's the Cobbler whose aim to sow confusion and discord, unless anyone has any specific thoughts, I'm not sure how much it's worth thinking about this (and potentially wasting time doing what she wants, which is getting confused about her actions) any further, but I just wanted to put this out there. Also important to note that she did not know any more than us, so her suspicions (or lack thereof) only hold slightly more weight than others because we know that she doesn't know any more than the rest of us.

[Brinniel]

Boro: Early on he's a bit of an oddball, but that doesn't point either way. Spends plenty of time posting about player style. In post #113, he fake-votes Legate for picking up on the fake-vote idea from G55. Does anyone see irony in that? He ends up actually voting Pitchwife for flip-flopping between G55 and Legate. ToDay he announces me as his primary suspect in post #332 without stating why, then states he's going to focus on possible suspects based on my guilt.

Impression: I actually find his vote reasoning for Pitch rather flimsy. Yes, Pitch was a little indecisive, but I don't think enough to merit a vote. And then there's toDay. I just don't understand the sense in looking at other players with the presumption of another unknown player's guilt without considering alternatives.

---

Legate: Picks up on G55's fake vote idea which gathers plenty of attention. He begins to suspect Kit for her comments on Lhuna, then builds on suspicion when she switches her suspicion to him in post #88. He's unsure about me, but votes me over Kit because she's not in the running and my death could be revealing.

Impression: His early comments of the Day could be a bold wolf, but I'm more inclined to think not. I don't like his vote, but it is not necessarily suspicious since he didn't want to spread out the vote and seemed least certain about me among those in the running.

---

Lommy: In post #144, she suggests G55 could be the cobbler. She finds Pitch grasping at straws, Hui suspicious for his suspicion of her (that it seems fabricated), and Boro is acting odd. At post #150, her fake vote goes to Boro for shying away from confrontation and not giving normal vibes. In post #203, she thinks G55 looks bad in her confrontation with Rikae and later votes her. ToDay, she further explained her vote, stating she preferred lynching G55 over me.

Impression: My opinion of Lommy hasn't changed either. She still appears genuine to me. Her suspicion of Boro was consistent and in my opinion, not too much out there. She didn't vote him, but clearly that was due to not wanting to spread the votes.

---

Hui: Starts to suspect Lommy based on her comments about Day 1, stating that it gave "finding a wolf toDay is impossible, so why bother trying" vibes. There's some further exchanges that continue that suspicion. In post #93, he's wary of Mac suspicions, and backs off Lommy slightly. By post #183 Lommy is back on the suspect list. He points out the suspicion against me has come out of nowhere and then votes G55 to avoid me getting lynched (thanks) and thinks a wolf is behind the bandwagon.

Impression: I don't agree with his Lommy suspicions, but I do like his concern about the bandwagon against me - however, that does not spell innocence. I could see a wolf trying to support an innocent to gain her trust. Hui does a lot of summaries of previous posts which appears helpful, but could also be a facade should he be a wolf.

---

Mac: In post #111, he thinks there's too much focus on LGP and the Day could end up a race between them. He started to pick up on my comments and suspect them, which is why he votes me. ToDay he's been talking about theories of Rikae as the Night kill and thinks it could be way to frame him.

Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.

---

Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55.

Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something.

More to come.

P.S. I'm just posting right now and haven't had time to read anything new since #339. And I probably won't read anything til morning.

[Brinniel]

Greenie: In post #135, she has concerns about the Hui/Lommy exchange. Her summary post is a bit non-committal, but I guess not too unusual at this stage. Post #178, she is wishy-washy about G55 in the Rikae exchange. In #206, she voices concerns about Mac's post on me feeling that his thought process is wolfy. She ends up voting him for this reason.

Impression: I'm not sure about Greenie. Yes, the timing of her vote made it a throwaway, but I don't know that this alone makes her suspicious. Greenie does tend to be someone who flies under my radar.

---

Kit: Post #85 was her jump on Lhuna. In #95, she thinks a Pitchwolf could pick Legate as an easy target and later states that she think there is a wolf among LGP. She dedicates post #220 to looking at my post - she doesn't like what she sees, but lays off. After reviewing G55, she votes Pitch.

Impression: Unlike others, I don't find her comments of Lhuna suspicious, just a bit aggressive. It is interesting that she spent a bunch of time concerned about my posts, then went along with Pitchwife. I was suspicious of her yesterDay because of her push for Pitch, which could be wolfy behavior should he be innocent. I am still wary of her.

---

Sally: Not much content to go off from yesterDay. The reason behind her vote was obvious.

Impression: Too little information to have an impression. Hopefully we'll hear more toDay.

---

Kath: Post #81 she provides a summary list that's a bit inconclusive. She votes G55 because she doesn't like how she slides the fake vote idea to Legate.

Impression: I noticed a lot of her posts talk about the players without providing actual opinions of them. I couldn't find where she suspected G55 earlier. She remains a mystery to me right now.

---

Ka: In post #194, she plays into Pitch's idea that a wolf could be among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me. She finds me playing it safe and then votes me.

Impression: I found her looking innocent early yesterDay, but less so now. Her reasoning for voting me is valid, but her timing is more suspicious.

---
Eonwe: Posts a non-committal summary in #153. In his vote post, he throws out several names of possible suspects but is unwilling to commit and votes Urwen instead.

Impression: Some pointed out that summary post and I agree it's wishy-washy, but not necessarily suspicious for Day 1. I don't like his vote, but again it's not necessarily suspicious.

---

Lhuna: She mentioned she hates Day 1 and then voted for herself.

Impression: Still too little to go on. Her self-vote doesn't point to anything.

---

Lalaith: Not much participation yesterDay, apparently due to time constraints. Hopefully we'll hear more today.

Impression: Not enough to have one. Though I will respond on her recent post disagreeing with my Night kill post - I see her point on Scenario 1, however I don't think a wolf would automatically suspect seer just because they are on a list. I could see the wolves suspecting a seer Rikae maybe if they thought they dreamt of G55 (considering they put her on the suspect list and their later exchange).

---

Urwen: Votes G55 out of spite then threatens to disappear toDay.

Impression: Don't like the vote, but I'm more inclined to think she's a confused ordo. If she does disappear, I'd rather not waste anymore time analyzing her behavior since she'd get modfired anyway.

---

I think that was everyone.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

After repeated experience of writing a post, fifty new posts coming while I write, then ending up with an endless scroll, I'm going to post one whole thought now and continue with more afterwards.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement.

As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role.

Boro's starting remark "there must be Wolves among these big bandwagons" (while likely) and the fact he excluded the remaining votes forced me to look them up and that in turn prompted me to calculate.

It is *theoretically* possible that the Wolves are Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith). And so in fact, there is rather a big chance that there is a Wolf among those, and to be honest, I am actually more convinced that there is at least one - or likely more than one.

Since I'm at it, I could just as well look at them.

Lhuna's self-vote would be a perfect cover. Perfect in the sense that she would do it regardless, so it has no objective impact as evidence. But if she was a Wolf, it'd be ideal way to keep her hands clean (no pun intended).

More interesting are those who came later. All of those came after the 30 min mark and came sort of in response to the appearing bandwagons. The beginning came from the discussion "G55 or Pitch" and actually several people leaned both ways and didn't want Brinniel. Some of those who originally took part in the debate (Hui, Lottie) later voted G55 over Pitchwife, already at the point when it was very late and it came to the race between the two.

Both Shasta and Kitanna voiced fairly reasonably backed suspicions based on the "Pitchwife goes on offense-defense" argument related to the whole trialogue.

Greenie's vote for Mac is the "safest" in the sense that it comes up with a new bandwagon when there are others already going. I actually still don't like it because I think it easily could be faked. But I would need more data to form a broader picture.

Eönwë is right in the same category with his single vote for Urwen. On second look, I have to backtrack on what I said in my previous post and say that it really looks throwaway, however, at the same time, I still think it looks rather like an innocent throwaway. Less than 15 minutes before end, a throwaway vote is a suspicious move, and not sure if an Eönwölf would do it.

That's some musing on those. Lalaith I see has appeared since. I hope we are going to have more input from her, including a vote; same goes for Lhuna.

Back to reading...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Now, to business:

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:[LIST=1][*]She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.[*]She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.[*]She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Since she was the cobbler I'd say the chances of her trying to get an innocent Brinn killed are small. She would have no knowledge if Brinn was guilty or innocent except her own read on the situation. Her fake reveal seems more like a little "save myself for another day" and a little bit "sow some last minute discord if I'm to die."

[Brinniel]

Commenting as I read...

Originally Posted by Legate

Boro's starting remark "there must be Wolves among these big bandwagons" (while likely) and the fact he excluded the remaining votes forced me to look them up and that in turn prompted me to calculate.

I forgot to mention this in my earlier post, but I didn't like how he excluded the non-me/G55 bandwagoners. Because I certainly think there is at least a wolf or two among that group it's nonsensical to blow them off.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her

Nope, I don't necessarily think that's the reason they killed them; just mentioning it among the many possibilities.

Originally Posted by Greenie

As for scenario 4, this is basically Brinn saying that we shouldn’t look at the Night kill because in her opinion it implicates her, and anyone who does look at it is suspicious.

Twisting my words a bit. I didn't say we shouldn't talk about it at all - just that it shouldn't be the main focus of the Day and anyone who leans into it too much could be sketchy.

Note: I am able to pop in throughout the day, but I am multi-tasking between work.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?

Well, I know I'm innocent, so I can't say that my own vote is suspicious. I had also been wary of Hui throughout the Day as I wondered if his strong defense of me on Day 1 was a wolf trying to appear in a better light should I be lynched.

Combined with timing, I thought hiding behind Kit for your reason to vote him could possibly be wolf-on-wolf. I think Eonwe's vote could be more likely wolf-on-wolf - he put the nail in the coffin, but if he had voted Mac instead, his vote would look very suspicious indeed should Mac be innocent and Hui later revealed as a wolf.

[Inziladun]

++G55

There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.

x/d with Kit

[Loslote]

++Galadriel55

I think this lynch gives us the most information going forward, and I would be very surprised if she turns out to be innocent.