Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Brinniel]

Greenie: In post #135, she has concerns about the Hui/Lommy exchange. Her summary post is a bit non-committal, but I guess not too unusual at this stage. Post #178, she is wishy-washy about G55 in the Rikae exchange. In #206, she voices concerns about Mac's post on me feeling that his thought process is wolfy. She ends up voting him for this reason.

Impression: I'm not sure about Greenie. Yes, the timing of her vote made it a throwaway, but I don't know that this alone makes her suspicious. Greenie does tend to be someone who flies under my radar.

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Kit: Post #85 was her jump on Lhuna. In #95, she thinks a Pitchwolf could pick Legate as an easy target and later states that she think there is a wolf among LGP. She dedicates post #220 to looking at my post - she doesn't like what she sees, but lays off. After reviewing G55, she votes Pitch.

Impression: Unlike others, I don't find her comments of Lhuna suspicious, just a bit aggressive. It is interesting that she spent a bunch of time concerned about my posts, then went along with Pitchwife. I was suspicious of her yesterDay because of her push for Pitch, which could be wolfy behavior should he be innocent. I am still wary of her.

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Sally: Not much content to go off from yesterDay. The reason behind her vote was obvious.

Impression: Too little information to have an impression. Hopefully we'll hear more toDay.

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Kath: Post #81 she provides a summary list that's a bit inconclusive. She votes G55 because she doesn't like how she slides the fake vote idea to Legate.

Impression: I noticed a lot of her posts talk about the players without providing actual opinions of them. I couldn't find where she suspected G55 earlier. She remains a mystery to me right now.

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Ka: In post #194, she plays into Pitch's idea that a wolf could be among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me. She finds me playing it safe and then votes me.

Impression: I found her looking innocent early yesterDay, but less so now. Her reasoning for voting me is valid, but her timing is more suspicious.

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Eonwe: Posts a non-committal summary in #153. In his vote post, he throws out several names of possible suspects but is unwilling to commit and votes Urwen instead.

Impression: Some pointed out that summary post and I agree it's wishy-washy, but not necessarily suspicious for Day 1. I don't like his vote, but again it's not necessarily suspicious.

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Lhuna: She mentioned she hates Day 1 and then voted for herself.

Impression: Still too little to go on. Her self-vote doesn't point to anything.

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Lalaith: Not much participation yesterDay, apparently due to time constraints. Hopefully we'll hear more today.

Impression: Not enough to have one. Though I will respond on her recent post disagreeing with my Night kill post - I see her point on Scenario 1, however I don't think a wolf would automatically suspect seer just because they are on a list. I could see the wolves suspecting a seer Rikae maybe if they thought they dreamt of G55 (considering they put her on the suspect list and their later exchange).

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Urwen: Votes G55 out of spite then threatens to disappear toDay.

Impression: Don't like the vote, but I'm more inclined to think she's a confused ordo. If she does disappear, I'd rather not waste anymore time analyzing her behavior since she'd get modfired anyway.

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I think that was everyone.

[A Little Green]

Okay, Rikae then. Several theories on why they were picked.

Lottie seems to think the wolves took Rikae out because they were a powerful semi-assumed innocent after their fight with G55.
Boro and Inzil seem to think the wolves can’t afford to pick someone just to frame an innocent, so there must have been another reason.
Brinn seems to think Rikae was picked to frame her, and Mac seems to think Rikae was picked to frame him.

More specifically:

Originally Posted by Boro

Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious

This is a fair point. I don’t think the wolves can afford not to go for potential Gifteds.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No??? If the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch yesterDay, it could have just as well been Gal, who they also knew wasn't one of them.

Originally Posted by Legate re: Lottie

You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.

I agree with Lommy’s point above on how a bandwagon against Brinn doesn’t mean she is innocent, and Legate brings up an interesting point about Lottie seemingly assuming she is. If Brinn turns out to be innocent, this will merit a closer look. Boro later goes further and states that he is going to assume Brinn is a wolf. I assume the “people” who assume Brinn is innocent that Lommy is referring to are maybe Lottie and Huin? Also speaking of Huin there's this –

Originally Posted by Huin

It seems pretty clear G55 brought up the no-vote/fake-vote idea specifically to derail the day. But Legate picking it up and running with it can't have been part of the plan (unless she knows him really well), which still inclines me against suspecting him. Pitch, though… I'm still not convinced by his switch of the blame for the idea from G55 to Legate. I'm not going to impart PitchWolf with supernatural Cobbler-spotting talents, but as I think I said yesterday, he could have been trying to move the focus specifically onto Legate, not off G55.

Why would a Pitchwolf want to move the focus onto Legate specifically, if not to move it away from a packmate or a suspected cobbler? What would be the motive? Huin also downplays the arguments against Brinn here:

Originally Posted by Huin

Conclusions? Well, obviously I think the arguments against G55 are stronger (to say the least) than those against Brinn. They were also broadly agreed on, particularly the idea that something was up in the GLP, whereas the only agreement in the Brinn voters seems to have been 'she's quiet… too quiet', with other reasons added on at will to justify that unease.

He also explicitly voted to save Brinn yesterDay. Something going on here, though I’m starting to think it’s too open to be a wolf defending a packmate.

Then there’s Brinn’s scenarios on why Rikae was killed:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.

Alarm bells. 1 and 2 both connect the kill to Brinn herself. As others have pointed out, there might have been other reasons for suspecting Rikae is Gifted, or (as Mac demonstrated) other people who could have been “framed” by the kill. Additionally, I agree with Inzil and Boro that the wolves using a Night kill just to frame an innocent is unlikely. 3 is basically what Lottie suggested early on, and while not directly suspicious, also not very likely in my opinion. As for scenario 4, this is basically Brinn saying that we shouldn’t look at the Night kill because in her opinion it implicates her, and anyone who does look at it is suspicious. Under normal circumstances, I’d be crying “wolf!” just about now. But we also have Mac acting equally paranoid (and even weirder) about the Rikae kill.

Originally Posted by Mac

Obviously Gala considered Rikae to be innocent. In fact, by the fairly spirited way she went after them, she likely thought they were not just innocent, but gifted. What set her off against them was an error in a comment about me. Maybe she thought Rikae was the seer, dreamt of wolf-me (No, I’m not a wolf, but she Gala doesn’t know that) and tried to get me lynched by exaggerating what little could be found that early into Day1? Now Rikae is dead. Did the wolves follow Gala’s judgement and thought them gifted? I don't see it, unless maaybe if Brinn is indeed a wolf and the way Rikae suspected her set them off. Not gonna put too many eggs into that basket, though.

Unless... I'm being framed. By the exact thinking above, a mewolf would have reason to think Rikae really is the seer. If the wolves are preparing my head for the chopping block, I have to raise my eyebrow at those who suddenly suspected me near the deadline, since this would very much play into their hands/paws. *coughgreeniecough*

I’m still operating from the premise that a Night kill purely to frame somebody isn’t worth it for the wolves at this point (especially since, as we’ve seen, this particular one apparently can “frame” either Brinn or Mac, depending on which one you ask ). But more to the point, that first paragraph? As Lommy pointed out, how would that even occur to you if you’re innocent? He goes on to elaborate on this later:

Originally Posted by Mac

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.

So basically, his theory is that cobbler55 thought Rikae was a Seer who dreamed Mac is a wolf and that she tried to buddy up with Mac for this reason. This bit sounds plausible enough to me. But then Mac goes on to say that the wolves went after Rikae because if he was a wolf he would think Rikae was a possible Seer too, and the wolves want to frame him. I have a few problems with this. First, as discussed above, I don’t think the wolves can afford a Night kill just to frame somebody rather than going for potential Gifteds at this stage. Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.

And lastly, Brinn addresses this herself:

Originally Posted by Brinn re: Mac

Impressions: I was agreeing with his posts, right up until he started suspecting me. As for those suspicions, I'm not sure what to think - could be genuine or he could be helping to set me up. His theory toDay is a stretch - I just don't find it likely that the wolves would kill Rikae for that reason.

I’m not sure why Mac’s framing theory is any more of a stretch than Brinn’s. In fact, I think they are strikingly similar, and find it curious that Brinn doesn’t.

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Eönwölf

This makes me hope he is indeed a wolf so we get to call him that.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.

I see Greenie and I are very much on the same track re: Rikae-Mac-Brinn, and I agree with this conclusion too.

As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...